International Portfolio Investments

Transcription

1 International Portfolio Investments Chapter Objectives: Chapter Eleven 11 INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT 1. Why investors diversify their portfolios internationally. 2. How much investors can gain from international diversification. 3. The effects of fluctuating exchange rates on international portfolio investments. 4. Whether and how much Second investors Edition can benefit from investing in U.S. based international mutual funds. 5. The reasons for home bias in portfolio holdings. EUN / RESNICK

2 Chapter Outline International Correlation Structure and Risk Diversification Optimal International Portfolio Selection Effects of Changes in the Exchange Rate International Bond Investment International Mutual Funds: A Performance Evaluation 11-1

3 Chapter Outline (continued) International Diversification through Country Funds International Diversification with ADRs International Diversification with WEBS Why Home Bias in Portfolio Holdings? 11-2

4 International Correlation Structure and Risk Diversification Security returns are much less correlated across countries than within a country. This is so because economic, political, institutional, and even psychological factors affecting security returns tend to vary across countries, resulting in low correlations among international securities. Business cycles are often high asynchronous across countries. 11-3

5 International Correlation Structure Stock Market AU FR GM JP NL SW UK US Australia (AU).586 France (FR) Germany (GM) Japan (JP) Netherlands (NP) Switzerland (SW) United Kingdom (UK) Relatively low international correlations imply that investors should be able to reduce portfolio risk more if they diversify internationally rather than domestically United States (US)

6 Portfolio Risk (%) Domestic vs. International Diversification A fully When diversified fully diversified, international an international portfolio is only portfolio 12 percent can be as less risky than as half holding as risky a single as a purely U.S. portfolio. security. Swiss stocks U.S. stocks International stocks Number of Stocks 11-5

7 Optimal International Portfolio Selection The correlation of the U.S. stock market with the returns on the stock markets in other nations varies. The correlation of the U.S. stock market with the Canadian stock market is 70%. The correlation of the U.S. stock market with the Japanese stock market is 24%. A U.S. investor would get more diversification from investments in Japan than Canada. 11-6

8 Summary Statistics for Monthly Returns ($U.S.) Stock Market Correlation Coefficient Mean (%) SD (%) β CN FR GM JP UK Canada (CN) France (FR) % monthly return = 9.48% Germany (GM) per year Japan (JP) United Kingdom United States

9 Summary Statistics for Monthly Returns ($U.S.) Stock Market Correlation Coefficient Mean (%) SD (%) β CN FR GM JP UK Canada (CN) β measures the sensitivity of the market to the world market. France (FR) Clearly the Japanese market is Germany more sensitive to the world 1.23 (GM) market than is the U.S Japan (JP) United Kingdom United States

10 The Optimal International Portfolio 1.53 OIP US UK Efficient set JP FR GM R f CN 4.2% 11-9

11 Composition of the OIP for a U.S. Investor Belgian market 14.66% Italian market 0.37% Japanese market 9.25% Dutch market 14.15% Swedish market 20.26% U.S. market 41.31% Total % 11-10

12 Gains from International Diversification For a U.S. investor, the risk-return tradeoff for the optimal international portfolio and optimal domestic portfolio are shown below and at right. return 1.53% 1.33% OIP ODP OIP ODP Mean Return Standard Deviation 1.53% 1.33% 4.27% 4.56% 4.27% 4.56% risk 11-11

13 Effects of Changes in the Exchange Rate The realized dollar return for a U.S. resident investing in a foreign market will depend not only on the return in the foreign market but also on the change in the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the foreign currency

14 Effects of Changes in the Exchange Rate The realized dollar return for a U.S. resident investing in a foreign market is given by Where R i is the local currency return in the i th market e i is the rate of change in the exchange rate between the local currency and the dollar 11-13

15 Effects of Changes in the Exchange Rate For example, if a U.S. resident just sold shares in a British firm that had a 15% return (in pounds) during a period when the pound depreciated 5%, his dollar return is 9.25%: 11-14

16 Effects of Changes in the Exchange Rate The risk for a U.S. resident investing in a foreign market will depend not only on the risk in the foreign market but also on the risk in the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the foreign currency. The Var term represents the contribution of the cross-product term, R i e i, to the risk of foreign investment

17 Effects of Changes in the Exchange Rate This equation demonstrates that exchange rate fluctuations contribute to the risk of foreign investment through three channels: 1. Its own volatility, Var(e i ). 2. Its covariance with the local market returns Cov(R i,e i ). 3. The contribution of the cross-product term, Var

18 International Bond Investment There is substantial exchange rate risk in foreign bond investment. This suggests that investors may be able to increase their gains is they can control this risk, for example with currency forward contracts or swaps. The advent of the euro is likely to alter the riskreturn characteristics of the euro-zone bond markets enhancing the importance of non-euro currency bonds

19 International Mutual Funds: A Performance Evaluation A U.S. investor can easily achieve international diversification by investing in a U.S.-based international mutual fund. The advantages include: 1. Savings on transaction and information costs. 2. Circumvention of legal and institutional barriers to direct portfolio investments abroad. 3. Professional management and record keeping

20 International Mutual Funds: A Performance Evaluation As can be seen below, a sample of U.S. based international mutual funds has outperformed the S&P 500 during the period , with a higher standard deviation. β US U.S. Based International Mutual Funds Mean Annual Return Standard Deviation β US R % 5.78% S&P % 4.25% U.S. MNC Index 16.08%

21 International Mutual Funds: A Performance Evaluation U.S. stock market movements account for less than 40% of the fluctuations of international mutual funds, but over 90% of the movements in U.S. MNC shares. This means that the shares of U.S. MNCs behave like those of domestic firms, without providing effective international diversification. Mean Annual Return Standard Deviation β US R 2 U.S. Based International Mutual Funds 18.96% 5.78% S&P % 4.25% U.S. MNC Index 16.08%

22 International Diversification through Country Funds Recently, country funds have emerged as one of the most popular means of international investment. A country fund invests exclusively in the stocks of a single county. This allows investors to: 1. Speculate in a single foreign market with minimum cost. 2. Construct their own personal international portfolios. 3. Diversify into emerging markets that are otherwise practically inaccessible

23 American Depository Receipts Foreign stocks often trade on U.S. exchanges as ADRs. It is a receipt that represents the number of foreign shares that are deposited at a U.S. bank. The bank serves as a transfer agent for the ADRs 11-22

24 American Depository Receipts There are many advantages to trading ADRs as opposed to direct investment in the company s shares: ADRs are denominated in U.S. dollars, trade on U.S. exchanges and can be bought through any broker. Dividends are paid in U.S. dollars. Most underlying stocks are bearer securities, the ADRs are registered

25 International Diversification with ADRs Adding ADRs to domestic portfolios has a substantial risk reduction benefit

26 World Equity Benchmark Shares World Equity Benchmark Shares (WEBS) Country-specific baskets of stocks designed to replicate the country indexes of 14 countries. WEBS are subject to U.S. SEC and IRS diversification requirements. Low cost, convenient way for investors to hold diversified investments in several different countries

27 International Diversification with WEBS Recent research suggests that WEBs are an excellent tool for international risk diversification. For investors who desire international exposure, WEBs may well serve as a major alternative to such traditional tools as international mutual funds, ADRs, and closed-end country funds 11-26

28 Why Home Bias in Portfolio Holdings? Home bias refers to the extent to which portfolio investments are concentrated in domestic equities

29 The Home Bias in Equity Portfolios Country Share in World Market Value Proportion of Domestic Equities in Portfolio France 2.6% 64.4% Germany 3.2% 75.4% Italy 1.9% 91.0% Japan 43.7% 86.7% Spain 1.1% 94.2% Sweden 0.8% 100.0% United Kingdom 10.3% 78.5% United States 36.4% 98.0% Total 100.0% 11-28

30 Why Home Bias in Portfolio Holdings? Three explanations come to mind: 1. Domestic equities may provide a superior inflation hedge. 2. Home bias may reflect institutional and legal restrictions on foreign investment. 3. Extra taxes and transactions/information costs for foreign securities may give rise to home bias

31 End Chapter Eleven 11-30