Shopping Center Sales Fall as E- Commerce Grows

Transcription

1 August 2014 Investment Update Shopping Center Sales Fall as E- Commerce Grows The secular trend in shopping center retail sales has been faltering for some time. Recent weather and e- commerce trends are two factors that can explain this general decline. E-commerce has been growing as a percentage of all retail sales, as more and more consumers are shopping online. Though year-over-year growth in same-store sales has been showing lower highs and lower lows since 2012, weekly sales growth has generally fallen in the 2% 4% range. After poor weather conditions in the first quarter of 2014, sales growth fell below that range, approaching 1%. However, brick-and-mortar retailers appear to have finally found a way to attract more customers into their stores. Mall retail sales saw rapidly accelerating growth in the second quarter, reaching 4.6% on a year-over-year, 5-week average basis.

2 Investment Update August A Simple Plan Outlining an investment plan can be challenging: Today, individuals are responsible for building their own retirement accounts. This is a dramatic change from the past generation, who relied heavily on defined-benefit pension plans, which guaranteed income for life following retirement. Investors are faced with the challenge of making decisions on how much to save each month, how to allocate savings, and how to take disbursements in retirement. Fortunately, target-date funds offer a convenient solution to help simplify investing for the future. by the full faith and credit of the United States government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, while stocks are not guaranteed and have been more volatile than bonds. International investments involve special risks such as fluctuations in currency, foreign taxation, economic and political risks, liquidity risks, and differences in accounting and financial standards. Target-date funds, also known as lifecycle funds, have emerged as a popular investment option for individuals who may be unprepared or reluctant to make their own investing decisions. These funds provide a prebuilt asset allocation strategy that automatically adjusts based on the participant s age. Target-date funds can make retirement planning easier: The image above illustrates three target-date fund categories with varying maturities. As time passes, each portfolio is adjusted to meet the needs and goals of investors. Target-date funds achieve this by continually adjusting the mix of stocks, bonds, cash, and other investments. These funds become more income oriented as they approach and pass a target date. For example, an investor who plans to retire in 15 years might select a fund from the Target Date category, which places a large amount of assets in domestic and international stocks. Similarly, an investor with a retirement horizon of three years may choose to invest in a fund from the Target Date category, which offers a more conservative mix. Consult your financial advisor to learn about target-date funds that may be right for you based on your investment objectives and risk tolerance. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed

3 Investment Update August Floating-Rate Options When Interest Rates Rise Given the expectations that interest rates will rise in the not-too-distant future, it's no wonder that many fixed-income investors are considering floating-rate securities for their portfolios. The key distinction between floating-rate and fixed-rate securities involves how each investment type reacts to movements in market rates. A floating-rate bond tends to keep its value if rates rise, whereas a fixed-rate bond will lose value. That's because an existing bond with a fixed rate is worth less if investors can buy new bonds at higher rates. If rates drop, the opposite occurs: The existing fixed-rate bond will increase in value. sell them to investors. These loans typically receive below-investment-grade ratings, reflecting a relatively high risk of default. As is the case with other bond types, investment-grade floating-rate securities tend to pay lower interest rates than fixed-rate bonds do, while non-investment-grade floating-rate securities offer higher rates but also carry more credit risk. For fixed-income investors concerned about a rise in interest rates, floating-rate securities may be a viable option. But investors may have to either settle for reduced yields (in the case of investment-grade floating bonds) or added credit risk and volatility (as in the case of bank loans). With corporate bonds, an investor is a creditor of the corporation and the bond is subject to default risk. High-yield corporate bonds exhibit significantly more risk of default than investment grade corporate bonds. Because of the protection that floating-rate bonds may offer against rising interest rates, some investors may use them to reduce the rate sensitivity of their portfolios. One commonly used type is known as a bank loan. Corporations needing to borrow money may do so with help from one or several commercial or investment banks, which syndicate the loans and help Exploration in Diversification Investors often wonder how many funds they need to reduce risk through diversification. The answer isn t a specific number of funds, but rather the holdings of each fund. If multiple funds in a portfolio have similar holdings, an investor can fail to achieve diversification benefits. Portfolio A and Portfolio Z in the image contain five mutual funds. Each oval represents the ownership zone, which accounts for 75% of the fund s holdings. The funds in Portfolio A overlap, indicating that each fund shares similar style characteristics. Too much overlap defeats the purpose of using multiple funds to create a diversified portfolio. Portfolio Z spans across many styles, so positive performance by some investments can neutralize the negative effect of others. As illustrated, it is important to be aware of the possibility of security overlap when constructing a diversified portfolio.

4 Investment Update August Investing in Real Estate Investors can gain access to commercial property through real estate investment trusts, or REITs. These trusts have attained attractive returns over the past 30- plus years, providing investors with the income earning potential of bonds and the price appreciation of stocks. With REITs, you may get the best of both worlds. U.S. still holds the largest percentage of the global real estate market capitalization, but more and more countries are introducing REITs, especially in Europe and Asia, creating more investment opportunities. Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore are growing real estate markets in Asia, while the United Kingdom, France, and the Netherlands are developing in Europe. Do keep in mind that diversification does not eliminate the risk of investment losses, and that REIT investments are not suitable for all investors. There are three types of REITs: equity, mortgage, or a hybrid of the two. Equity REITs invest in, or own, commercial real estate and use property rents as revenue. Mortgage REITs invest in loans secured by real estate, earning income through mortgage interest and fees. This article will concentrate on equity REITs, which make up a great majority of listed REITs, according to the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT). In fact, if you are interested in learning more about REITs, NAREIT can provide a lot of useful information. A company must satisfy certain criteria before it can be classified as a REIT. First of all, the company has to be in the real estate business, and at least 75% of its assets must be real property. At least 75% of the company s revenue must come from real estate, and (this is rather important for investors) at least 90% of taxable income must be distributed annually to shareholders. For this reason, REITs can be considered good income-producing investments. A portfolio of stocks, bonds and cash improves through the addition of REITs, due to the power of diversification. Because each type of asset does not react identically to the same economic or market events, combining them can often produce a higher return with less risk. Take the example below. Portfolio A consists of stocks, bonds and cash. The portfolio s total return from 1972 to 2013 was 10.1% with a risk of 10.3%. Now look at Portfolio B, which had a 20% allocation to REITs over the same time period. Not only was its return higher at 10.4%, but its risk was also lower, 9.5%. Nowadays, REIT investing does not have to be limited to the United States anymore. It s true that the

5 Investment Update August Monthly Market Barometer 1 Month, ending July 31, The U.S. Market returned -1.85% (YTD 5.12%). The Morningstar Market Barometer provides a visualization of the performance of various stock market indexes. The color scale (red for losses and green for gains) allows you to assess which areas of the market performed strongly and which areas showed weakness for the time period analyzed. The ninesquare grid represents stocks classified by size (vertical axis) and style (horizontal axis). There are three investment styles for each size category: small, mid and large. Two of the three style categories are value and growth while the central column represents the core style (neither value nor growth characteristics dominate). Large-caps account for the top 70% of the capitalization; mid-caps represent the next 20%; and small-caps represent the balance Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein (1) is intended solely for informational purposes; (2) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or the content providers; (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete, or timely; and (4) does not constitute investment advice of any kind. Neither Morningstar nor the content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. "Morningstar" and the Morningstar logo are registered trademarks of Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar Market Commentary originally published by Robert Johnson, CFA, Director of Economic Analysis with Morningstar and has been modified for Morningstar Newsletter Builder.