Offshore wind is ready for prime time
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1 SECTOR IN-DEPTH Renewable energy - US Offshore wind is ready for prime time TABLE OF CONTENTS Credit implications for those impacted by OSW will vary The US OSW market is poised to take off, with over 13 GW under development US political and regulatory support for OSW is growing Though substantially higher than wholesale market prices, US OSW prices have rapidly declined in the past few years The US Northeast, in particular New England, New York and New Jersey, has the most OSW economic potential Moody s related publications After almost a decade of rapid development in offshore wind (OSW) in which 17 GW of generation came online globally, the US OSW market is poised to take off in the wake of sharply declining costs and growing policy support Analyst Contacts Lesley Ritter AVP-Analyst lesley.ritter@moodys.com Christopher Bredholt VP-Senior Analyst christopher.bredholt@moodys.com Clifford J Kim VP-Senior Analyst clifford.kim@moodys.com Swami Venkataraman, CFA Senior Vice President swami.venkat@moodys.com Jim Hempstead MD-Utilities james.hempstead@moodys.com CLIENT SERVICES Americas Asia Pacific Japan EMEA » Credit implications for companies impacted by this new generation will vary. It is a credit positive for companies that are sponsoring US OSW projects such as Avangrid Inc. (Baa1 stable), Eversource Energy (Baa1 stable) and National Grid Plc (Baa1 stable), as well as Orsted A/S (Orsted, Baa1 stable), the global leader in OSW development. But increased adoption of OSW will place margin pressure on power generators and power projects with exposure to the New England, New York, and New Jersey regions where the bulk of the initial OSW development will take place. Companies active in these markets include IPPs such as Dynegy Inc.(B2 RuR) and Calpine Corporation (Ba3 negative), diversified companies that own merchant generation in the Northeast such as Exelon Corporation (Baa2 stable); and projects such as Astoria Energy LLC (B1 stable).» With more than 13 GW under development, the US OSW market is ready to catch on. Outside the US, the clear policy support given to developers provided the market signals to spur investment in the infrastructure needed to realize technological improvements and economies of scale, which resulted in sharp cost declines and the construction of 17 GW of capacity globally. Similar signals are beginning to emerge stateside.» US political and regulatory support for OSW is growing. States like Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey have established a legislative or policy target for OSW supporting the development of 7.5 GW of generation capacity by 2030.» Though substantially higher than US wholesale market prices, domestic OSW prices have declined rapidly in the past few years. The power purchase agreement for Block Island, the first operational US OSW project, was priced at $244/MWh for a 2016 operational date, while the Maryland-based Skipjack and Ocean City projects secured long-term procurement contracts at $132/MWh in Industry forecasts costs declining to $80/MWh in select regions longer term.» The northeastern US, in particular New England, New York and New Jersey, has the most OSW economic potential. OSW sites here benefit from natural attributes such as good wind speed, relatively shallow waters and proximity to shore and demand centers, all of which contain costs. They also have similarities with northern Europe, such as a scarcity of natural gas supplies, geographical constraints and ambitious renewables goals.
2 Credit implications for those impacted by OSW will vary OSW is a credit positive development for companies that are sponsoring these projects in the US, giving them a first mover advantage as the technology grows. Although the development and construction of these plants carry greater risks than onshore wind, once they become operational, offshore wind farms will benefit from long-term, contracted cash flows with highly rated utility counterparties. Moreover, OSW is likely to produce higher and more consistent capacity factors than comparable onshore wind owing to turbine size, wind speed, and lower wind variability. On the other hand, the growth of US OSW is a credit negative for power generators and power projects with exposure to the New England, New York and New Jersey regions where the bulk of the initial OSW development will take place. OSW is credit positive for Avangrid, Eversource Energy and National Grid, which are all participating in expanding the technology in the US. Avangrid currently has secured leases for up to 3.3 GW of OSW, while Eversource holds leases for up to 2 GW of capacity. National Grid is participating in the 400 MW Revolution Wind project and would build a 1,600 MW undersea cable to connect the project to shore if it is selected as part of the Massachusetts RFP process. Developments in the US OSW market are also positive for Orsted, the world's leading OSW developer and an active participant in the US, that holds sizeable OSW leases in both Massachusetts and New Jersey. On the other hand, increased adoption of OSW will place margin pressure on power generators and power projects with exposure to the New England, New York, and New Jersey regions where the bulk of the initial OSW development will take place. Companies active in these markets include IPPs such as Dynegy and Calpine, diversified companies that own merchant generation in the Northeast such as Exelon; and projects such as Astoria Energy LLC. Like other renewable sources, OSW s fuel and operational costs are significantly lower than those of conventional fuel generation assets, and can bid into these premium wholesale markets at very low rates, depressing the attractive energy prices that existing participants have been enjoying. In addition, OSW has the potential to reduce capacity prices in the NE-ISO, NYISO and potentially within the PSEG capacity zone of PJM in New Jersey. While it is difficult to predict the actual movement of capacity prices in any given year, incremental supply of capacity in an environment of low-to-zero load growth could result in marginal downward pressure on capacity prices. OSW could have mixed credit implications for Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG, Baa1 stable). PSEG stands to benefit as a developer of OSW in New Jersey that owns leases for up to 1 GW of capacity. At the same time, PSEG Power LLC (Baa1 stable), which owns substantial merchant generation in New Jersey, may be negatively affected by lower power prices due to OSW. Other diversified companies such as Dominion Energy, Inc. (Baa2 negative) may experience a similar dynamic. The US OSW market is poised to take off, with over 13 GW under development Over the past decade, OSW has grown to 17 GW of global operating capacity (about 3% of global wind generation capacity). Europe accounts for the bulk of the projects (12 GW, or about 8% of European wind generation capacity), with the balance coming from Asia. The US brought its first project online in December 2016, the 30 MW Block Island OSW farm off the coast of Rhode Island. Current estimates show the global OSW market growing to nearly 32 GW by 2020, as shown in Exhibit 1, almost doubling today s cumulative existing capacity in just three years. The US will account for none of that growth but should become a more material player after 2020, based on current market developments and a pipeline of 13 GW of projects at various stages of development. This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2
3 Exhibit 1 Global OSW generation capacity is set to nearly double over the next three years Under Construction Early/Advanced Planning Cumulative Capacity (Cumulative MW) Capacity (Annual MW) Installed Source: Navigant Research - Offshore Wind Market and Project Assessment 2017 The clear policy support given to developers outside the US provided the market signals necessary to spur investments in the manufacturing and supply chain infrastructure needed to realize technological improvements and economies of scale, which ultimately resulted in sharp cost declines and the construction of 17 GW of capacity globally. Exhibit 2 illustrates the steep decline in OSW prices in Europe. The UK s Hornsea I project, for instance, tendered at $182/MWh in Results of the collocated Hornsea II tender came in about 40% lower in the fall of 2017, at $76/MWh. Exhibit 2 European OSW prices have been in steep decline Recent strike prices of European OSW tenders in USD/MWh United Kingdom Denmark Netherlands 225 Burbo Bank extension, 195 Adjusted Strike Price (2016 USD/MWh) Dudgeon extension, 195 Beatrice, 182 Walney extension, 195 Hornsea One, 182 Neart na Gaoithe, 148 East Anglia ONE, Horns Rev 3*, Borssele 1 and 2*, 101 Borsselle 3 and 4*, Vesterhav Nord and Syd**, 87 Kriegers Flak**, Commercial Operation Date Note: *Grid and development costs added; **Grid costs and contract length adjusted Source: NREL - An assessment of economic potential of offshore wind in the United States Data derived from 4C Offshore (2017) According to the latest European bids, some market participants are bidding for projects without subsidies, based on the expectation that technological advances will make OSW competitive. Developers Orsted and EnBW Energie Baden-Wuerttemberg AG (Baa1 stable) each placed zero subsidy bids for two German OSW projects, expecting that their projects would be profitable without the benefit of 3
4 any subsidies on top of wholesale market prices. Similarly, in March 2018, the Dutch authorities awarded Chinook C.V., a subsidiary of Vattenfall AB (A3 stable), the permit to construct and operate a 700 MW OSW farm based on a subsidy-free bid. Industry forecasts, as seen in Exhibit 3, show the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of European OSW declining to $60-80/MWh by Relative to the best sites for established renewable sources like solar PV and onshore wind, OSW would continue to command a premium of roughly $10/MWh, but geographical constraints make it an attractive carbon-free emission option for regions where onshore solar and wind are less economical. Exhibit 3 The Levelized Cost of Energy for European OSW is projected to fall to $60-80/MWh by USD/MWh Offshore Wind Borssele 1&2 (NL) NNG (UK) Vesterhav (DK) EA1 (UK) Kriegers Flak (DK) Horns Rev 3 (DK) Borssele 3&4 (NL) Source: BVG Associates for Wind Europe - Unleashing Europe's Offshore Wind Potential (2017) US political and regulatory support for OSW is growing In an effort to create visibility and certainty in the offshore market and sput its growth, states like Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey have established a legislative or policy target for OSW supporting the development of 7.5 GW of generation capacity by 2030 (Exhibit 4). These states have also launched or are about to launch solicitations for 3.3 GW of OSW capacity. Exhibit 4 Togerther New York. Massachusetts and New Jersey aim to grow OSW capacity to 7.5 GW by State OSW Goal State Capacity (MW) Target Date Solicitations (MW) Solicitation Date Award Date MA 1, < Apr - 18 NJ 3, ,100 TBD TBD NY 2, TBD CT N/A N/A Jun-18 RI 1, TBD Total 8,500 ~3,300 Source: SPGMI Excluding Maryland, which awarded two projects totaling 368 MW in 2017 for a fixed contract price of $132/MWh over 20 years, Massachusetts is furthest along. The state issued a Request for Proposals for up to 800 MW of OSW to be awarded in April Three 4
5 separate bids were submitted for a total of 2 GW of capacity. Two of the bids are backed by leading European OSW developers, Orsted and Avangrid (whose majority owner is Iberdrola SA (Baa1 stable)). The outcome of these bids will be closely watched because they will offer an important indicator of pricing for future New York and New Jersey bids. Both New York and New Jersey are expected to launch their own solicitations for up to 800 MW and 1,100 MW respectively over the coming year. The necessary OSW site leases have been obtained while procurement processes are at different stages of development. New York is still working through its preferred procurement method while New Jersey passed legislation supporting the use of Offshore Renewable Energy Credits, similar to what is in place in Maryland. Exhibit 5 lists projects totaling 8.7 GW of capacity, available to bid into the different auctions. Exhibit 5 Overall, we estimate that there are about 8.7 GW of projects ready to bind into these different auctions. State Project Owner MA Bay State Offshore Wind 1,000 MA Revolution Wind Offshore MA Vineyard Offshore Wind Project Eversource Energy Orsted First Wind DE Shaw National Grid Avangrid Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners Capacity (MW) NJ Garden State Offshore Wind Farm 1,000 NJ New Jersey Offshore Wind Project SunEdison DE Shaw PSEG US Wind 1,500 NJ Ocean Offshore Wind Farm Project Orsted 1,000 NY Empire Wind Statoil 1, NY NY4 Excelsior Offshore Wind Park PNE Wind USA 400 NY Rockaway Peninsula Offshore Wind Project Statoil 800 NY Long Island - New York City Offshore Wind Project 700 RI South Fork Wind Farm Consolidated Edison New York Power Authority Long Island Power Authority SunEdison DE Shaw Total 90 8,690 Source: SPGMI Though substantially higher than wholesale market prices, US OSW prices have rapidly declined in the past few years The power purchase agreement for Block Island, the first operational US OSW project, was priced at $244/MWh when it went operational 2016, while the long-term procurement contract for Maryland's Skipjack and Ocean City projects came in substantially lower, at $132/MWh the following year. At today s US OSW prices, costs remain high, even relative to the premium US wholesale markets of New York City, Long Island, and Boston. However, forecasts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) project US OSW costs will decline to more competitive ranges over the coming years. Exhibit 6 shows that in the Northeast US in particular, the difference between the cost of OSW and forecasted market prices narrows to $30-80/MWh, with some of the lowest-cost sites located in Massachusetts, Maine, Rhode Island and New York. 5
6 Exhibit 6 The price differential between OSW and wholesale markets will narrow fast, particularly in the premium Northeastern markets OSW LCOEs represent cost at start of operation OSW LCOE by 2022($/MWh) OSW LCOE by 2027 ($/MWh) (a) Forecasted wholesale price ($/MWh) (b) Estimated subsidy required ($/MWh) (a)-(b) Northeast $ $ $50 $30-80 Mid-Atlantic $ $ $42 $ Southeast $ $ $48 $ Pacific Coast $ $ $51 $ Gulf Coast $ $ $44 $ Region Source: NREL, WoodMcKenzie, and Moody s estimates Importantly, the subsidy estimates in Exhibit 6 are shown on an aggregate basis and exclude any other policy-related incentives such as access to tax incentives or the adoption of carbon pricing. These markets have a record of adopting subsidies to support carbon-free generation. New York, for example, adopted a $22/MWh subsidy for 20 years to support the development of 1.4 GW of onshore renewables in March The state also adopted legislation in 2017 supporting a $17/MWh subsidy for 12 years for nuclear generation. Furthermore, projections have historically underestimated the pace of decline in renewable energy costs. This has been true of onshore wind, solar PV and battery storage. In OSW itself, Orsted projected a price of EUR100/MWh in 2020 but ended up achieving the target in Thus OSW costs may continue to decline faster than forecasts. Given all these factors, deployment of OSW at scale, particularly at the low end of the $80-130/MWh range, appears feasible within the next ten years. The US Northeast, in particular New England, New York and New Jersey, has the most OSW economic potential These states have ample sites favorable to OSW development and benefit from natural attributes such as good wind speed, relatively shallow waters and proximity to shore and demand centers, all of which help contain cost. For instance, NREL estimates that Massachusetts has 19.3 times the OSW technical potential relative to the states electricity needs, while New York and New Jersey have technical potentials that are several times their electric needs as well. These states also have similarities with northern Europe, where most OSW growth has taken place. 1. Like Europe, the Northeast region s access to natural gas has limitations. Existing natural gas pipelines in New York and New England, in particular, already operate at full capacity, and building new pipeline capacity has proved difficult. 2. The region has geographical constraints. Siting onshore renewables near load centers is difficult because of a scarcity of available land, while building out transmission lines to more remote areas where onshore renewables could be built has also been problematic and can be less cost effective. 3. Both Europe and the Northeast US have adopted ambitious renewable energy goals. New York State, for example, is aiming for 50% renewable energy by Based on its study An Assessment of the Potential of Offshore Wind in the United States from 2015 to 2030, NREL expects that the Northeast s unsubsidized, economically viable available capacity will reach 144 GW by 2027, as shown in Exhibit 7, with Maine and Massachusetts representing the largest share at 65 GW and 55 GW, respectively. 6
7 Exhibit 7 Based on current trends, 144 GW of OSW will be economically viable in the Northeast US by 2027 State Economic Potential (in GW) Maine 65 Massachusetts 55 Rhode Island 16 Virginia 4 New Hampshire 2 New York 1 Connecticut 1 Source: NREL - An assessment of economic potential of offshore wind in the United States (2017) Moody's own estimates are more conservative since we do not expect OSW to be economical on an unsubsidized basis within that timeframe. Still, we acknowledge that the price differential will narrow materially over time and support deployment of OSW at scale in these regions. 7
8 Moody s related publications Sector In-Depth As costs decline, battery storage is emerging as a project finance opportunity, 19 March 2018 Credit impacts of carbon transition cover a wide spectrum, 17 December 2017 Falling cost of renewables reduces risk to Paris Agreement compliance, 6 September 2017 Renewables sector risks shift as competition reduces reliance on government subsidy, 6 September 2017 Solar outshines wind and hydro power with steadier output, 10 April 2017 Massachusetts and New York Seek to Emulate California's Renewable Progress, 6 April 2017 Offshore wind projects: New investment opportunities present new credit challenges,but these can be mitigated, 19 November,
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