TLAC STRATEGY UPDATE JANUARY 2017 FIXED INCOME INVESTORS PRESENTATION

Transcription

1 TLAC STRATEGY UPDATE JANUARY 2017 FIXED INCOME INVESTORS PRESENTATION

2 Important information Banco Santander, S.A. ("Santander") cautions that this presentation contains forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are found in various places throughout this presentation and include, without limitation, statements concerning our future business development and economic performance. While these forward-looking statements represent our judgment and future expectations concerning the development of our business, a number of risks, uncertainties and other important factors could cause actual developments and results to differ materially from our expectations. These factors include, but are not limited to: (1) general market, macro-economic, governmental and regulatory trends; (2) movements in local and international securities markets, currency exchange rates and interest rates; (3) competitive pressures; (4) technological developments; and (5) changes in the financial position or credit worthiness of our customers, obligors and counterparties. The risk factors that we have indicated in our past and future filings and reports, including those with the Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States of America (the SEC ) could adversely affect our business and financial performance. Other unknown or unpredictable factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward looking statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made and are based on the knowledge, information available and views taken on the date on which they are made; such knowledge, information and views may change at any time. Santander does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Statements as to historical performance or financial accretion are not intended to mean that future performance, share price or future earnings (including earnings per share) for any period will necessarily match or exceed those of any prior year. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast. The information contained in this presentation is subject to, and must be read in conjunction with, all other publicly available information, including, where relevant any fuller disclosure document published by Santander. Any person at any time acquiring securities must do so only on the basis of such person's own judgment as to the merits or the suitability of the securities for its purpose and only on such information as is contained in such public information having taken all such professional or other advice as it considers necessary or appropriate in the circumstances and not in reliance on the information contained in the presentation. In making this presentation available, Santander gives no advice and makes no recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in shares in Santander or in any other securities or investments whatsoever. Neither this presentation nor any of the information contained therein constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. No offering of securities shall be made in the United States except pursuant to registration under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or an exemption therefrom. Nothing contained in this presentation is intended to constitute an invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity for the purposes of the prohibition on financial promotion in the U.K. Financial Services and Markets Act The businesses included in each of our geographic segments and the accounting principles under which their results are presented here may differ from the included businesses and local applicable accounting principles of our public subsidiaries in such geographies. Accordingly, the results of operations and trends shown for our geographic segments may differ materially from those of such subsidiaries. 2

3 Executive summary Santander is presenting its updated funding plan, following the release of the proposed transposition of the TLAC requirements in the EU (23 November 2016) The objective of the funding plan is to: Enhance the Group s TLAC position Optimize its cost of capital Santander is considering various interim approaches for issuing TLAC-eligible debt instruments before the TLAC-requirements final regulation has been approved 3

4 Content Santander Business Model Capital TLAC requirements and Funding Plan Ratings Appendix

5 SANTANDER BUSINESS MODEL Our model has unique competitive advantages Critical mass in retail+commercial banking in 9+1 countries Net Interest Income, % of total 1 Relevant exposure to markets with high interest rates 124 million customer relationships Low rates markets 10% 2% 6% 2 25% High rates markets Geographical diversification High margin in low rate markets 14% SCF 7% 6% 11% 3% 3% 13% Other Latam SC USA (1) Does not include Corporate Centre. Data as of September 2016 (2) USA ex- SC USA 5

6 SANTANDER BUSINESS MODEL We are organised in a decentralised model with subsidiaries legally independent and Local banks for all purposes, subject to double supervision and internal control, both local and global Subject to local supervision & regulation Participates in national deposit guarantee funds autonomous in capital and liquidity This model is a strong incentive for local managers and enables local resolvability Firewall 6

7 Content Santander Business Model Capital TLAC requirements and Funding Plan Ratings Appendix

8 CAPITAL Delivering on our target of fully-loaded CET1 >11% in 2018, with profitable business growth Active capital management Fully-loaded CET1 (%) Currency-neutral. Sep 16 vs. Sep 15 Loans growth > RWA growth 3% > 0% Profit growth > RWA growth 8% > 0% bps bps 2 Capital selectively allocated to businesses with higher RoRWAs S 15 J 16 S 16 RoRWA 1 Dec 15 Sep % vs. 1.37% The fully-loaded total capital ratio rose to 13.70% (12.75% in September 2015) Fully-loaded leverage ratio improvement: 5.0% (4.7% in September 2015) (1) Underlying consolidated profit / average risk-weighted assets (2) Quarterly change: ordinary generation (+16 bp), perimeter (-4 bp), and AFS and others (-1 bp) 8

9 CAPITAL Business models matter, Santander has ample room to absorb losses Higher profitability with broad coverage over a conservative density Pre provision profit / RWA (%) Loan-loss allowances / RWA (%) RWAs / Total assets (%) C C C C C C C C C Source: Based on public company data - Bloomberg. Data as of Jun 16 Peers: BBVA, BNP, Soc Gen, Unicredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, ING, Lloyds, HSBC and Barclays 9

10 CAPITAL and the EBA stress test shows, once again, that Santander business model requires less capital Change CET vs baseline scenario (bps) Change CET vs adverse scenario (bps) C1 340 Santander -199 Santander 299 C1-210 C2 210 C2-230 C3 170 C3-240 C4 120 C4-240 C5 110 C5-290 C6 110 C6-310 C7 110 C7-320 C8 100 C8-330 C9 100 C9-330 C10 70 C C11 50 C C12 40 C C13 30 C C14-20 C Peers: BBVA, BNP, Soc Gen, C. Agricole, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, Unicredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, ING, Nordea, Lloyds, HSBC, Barclays and RBS 10

11 CAPITAL Group regulatory capital and current distance to MDA Current distance to MDA 14.50% Capital ratio (transitional) Comfortable buffer to MDA in regulatory transitional total capital and CET1 ratios As of Sep 16 the distance to the current MDA amounts to 3.19% T2 CET1 2.06% 12.44% 3.19% 1.50%** (AT1 shortfall) 7.75%* 11.25% 2.00% 1.50% 0.50% 1.25% 1.50% Total capital T2 AT1 G-SIB buffer CCB Pilar II requirement 4.50% Minimum Pilar I Regulatory ratios Sep'16 (transitional) Regulatory requirement 2017 (*) 7.75% is the MDA threshold which reflects the minimum CET1 to be maintained by the Santander Group as communicated by the ECB on its decision regarding prudential minimum capital requirements for 2017 following the results of the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) (**) Following the EBA interpretative criteria such shortfall is to be added to the MDA threshold to calculate the final applicable MDA at a given moment in time. 11

12 CAPITAL Santander is committed to fulfil the AT1&T2 buckets through the transitional period Expected total capital ratio in Dec Hypothesis: RWAs growth of ~3.5% per year. No excess of generic provision in 2018 (prudent approach) Capital generation of 40 bps per year 13.70% Excess of generic provision: 0,65% 2.26% 0.97% TIER2 TIER1 0.9% c. 0.60% c. 0.60% >14.5% AT1 issuances to target of 1.5% in 2018: ~ 4bn 10.47% T2 issuances to target of 2% in 2018: ~ 4bn CET1 FL ratio Sep 16: 10.47% Total Capital FL ratio Sep 16: 13.70% Group FL Total capital ratio Sep16 Expected organic capital generation AT1 issuances to target T2 issuances to target Expected total capital ratio

13 CAPITAL Group targeted end-point distance to MDA Targeted distance to MDA in Dec Targets CET1 FL >11% in Dec-2018 Total capital FL >14.5% at end 2018 Capital ratio T2 >14.5% 2.00% AT1 1.50% All else being equal, this would imply a distance to a 9.5% MDA of at least 1.50%* CET1 >11.00% 9.50%-10.50% 1.00% G-SIB buffer 2.50% CCB 1.50% Pilar II requirement The required CET1 for 2019 is estimated to be between a range of 9.50% and 10.50% Regulatory ratios Dec-18 Target 4.50% Assumed regulatory requirement 2019 CET1 Minimum Pilar I (*) Any potencial shortfalls in AT1 / T2 will need to be covered by CET1, increasing the MDA over the MDA threshold 13

14 Content Santander Business Model Capital TLAC requirements and Funding Plan Ratings Appendix

15 TLAC REQUIREMENTS AND FUNDING PLAN TLAC requirements are manageable and an optimisation exercise for Santander TLAC phase-in requirements The TLAC requirements regulation is work in progress. On 23 November 2016 the European Commission published the proposals to amend the CRD IV and CRR. On the same date the European Commission also published a proposal for the amendment of the BRRD as regards the ranking of unsecured debt instruments in the creditor insolvency hierarchy (the Senior Ranking Harmonisation Directive ). The amendments include measures that will implement the TLAC requirement into EU and national law. Implementation of the TLAC requirement is expected to phase-in from 1 st January 2019: 16% from 1 st January 2019 (18% from 2022) plus applicable capital buffers. Santander has a resolution strategy approach of multiple point of entry (MPE). The TLAC requirement is expected to be requested at each resolution entity. G-SIB 1 CCB 2 TLAC T2 AT1 CET1 Using the Group requirements as a proxy for the aggregate TLAC requirement 19.5% 1.0% 2.5% 8.0% 2.0% 1.5% 4.5% Jan TLAC phase-in requirements 2018 Total Capital Target 14.5% Eligible Senior 2.5% >2.5% Indicative amount of Senior Non- Preferred subject to significant issues still under discussion CRD IV: Capital requirement directive. CRR: capital requirement regulation. BRRD: Bank recovery and resolution directive (1) G-SIB buffer. (2) Capital Conservation Buffer 15

16 TLAC REQUIREMENTS AND FUNDING PLAN Significant issues still under discussion Final TLAC transposition to EU and relevant jurisdictions TLAC level and perimeter of resolution groups Eligible Senior debt final treatment Senior Ranking regime harmonisation Internal TLAC requirement Deductions and mitigants final treatment Excess of generic provisions in T2 16

17 TLAC REQUIREMENTS AND FUNDING PLAN Funding plan will focus on TLAC-eligible instruments* Funding plan Bn. EUR SENIOR NON PREFERRED SENIOR PREFERRED HYBRIDS TOTAL SENIOR NON PREFERRED SENIOR PREFERRED HYBRIDS TOTAL SAN SCF UK SHUSA TOTAL (*) Estimates are based on current financial forecasts and are subject to changes depending on the regulatory environment 17

18 TLAC REQUIREMENTS AND FUNDING PLAN MPE approach follows Santander model of autonomous subsidiaries in capital and liquidity USA Portugal UK Mexico Chile Brazil Argentina Parent bank Poland Total T1 CET1 18 Local figures as of September Figures are subject to usual regulatory approval

19 Content Santander Business Model Capital TLAC requirements and Funding Plan Ratings Appendix

20 RATINGS Banco Santander S.A. ratings Long Term Ratings Moody s Standard and Poor s Fitch A3 LT senior unsecured debt A- Stand-Alone Credit Profile, Issuer Credit Profile LT senior unsecured debt A- Viability Rating, Issuer Default Rating LT senior unsecured debt Senior non-preferred (expected) Baa1 Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment BBB+ Senior non-preferred (expected) BBB+ Dated T2 Baa2 Dated T2 Senior non-preferred (expected) BBB Dated T2 BBB Baa3 BBB- BBB- Ba1 Additional T1 BB+ BB+ 20

21 Content Santander Business Model Capital TLAC requirements and Funding Plan Ratings Appendix

22 APPENDIX Senior Ranking Harmonisation Directive and funding plan New Senior Non-Preferred layer On 23 November 2016, the European Commission presented amendments to Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) as regards the ranking of unsecured debt instruments in the creditor insolvency hierarchy (the Senior Ranking Harmonisation Directive ). The proposal keeps the existing class of senior debt while creating a new liabilities class of 'non-preferred' senior debt that in resolution or insolvency scenarios would rank below the unsecured senior debt and other senior liabilities, but ahead of capital and subordinated instruments, in line with the framework promulgated in France on 10 December The proposal requires Member States to transpose the Senior Ranking Harmonisation Directive in their national laws by June 2017 and apply it by July However, the timing of implementation is uncertain and will depend on the EU and national legislative processes. Interim Approach Santander may consider the issuance of TLAC-eligible instruments ahead of the final approval of the relevant law through the use of contractual provisions within the terms and conditions of such instruments. Contractual senior second ranking provision: Senior notes would include a contractual status clause which would contemplate a senior second ranking ( senior non-preferred ) in resolution and insolvency Automatic alignment to future legislation will be contractually contemplated: The senior second ranking status will automatically be aligned with the Spanish law transposing the Insolvency Harmonisation Directive 22

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