Elephants and Ants. Chris Chancellor Partner, MackayWilliams

Transcription

1 Elephants and Ants Chris Chancellor Partner, MackayWilliams

2 EVERYBODY GETS IT. THEY UNDERSTAND THAT THESE DAYS, YOU HAVE TO BE VERY LARGE OR VERY SMALL Funds Europe Dec 11 th The power of two.

3 Be an elephant or an ant. (Very large do everything) (Very small - specialists) 3

4 Kangaroos face extinction? (Mid sized) 4

5 Do you get it? Which groups will survive? A) Elephants and ants no space for kangaroos. 16 B) Kangaroos are still jumping mid-sized can still bounce high. 5 A B 5

6 FUND HOUSES MANAGING LESS THAN 200BN IN ASSETS ARE UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE IN THE INCREASINGLY COMPETITIVE MARKET ENVIRONMENT Ignites 5 th March Only firms with 200bn plus will survive.

7 Shelf space Digitalisation Regulation

8 Shelf space Regulation Digitalisation

9 Are we concentrating? Is the top-10 groups share of assets: 12 A) Rising 9 B) Staying the same C) Falling 4 A B C 9

10 Elephants on a stampede? Top-10 groups as share of total AUM 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 29% 28% 0% Source: Broadridge FundFile data, excluding money market funds and funds of funds. Dec Val point calculation at each year end. 10

11 A stampede in passive Top-10 groups as share of total AUM 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Passive 78% 51% 29% Active 24% Source: Broadridge FundFile data, excluding money market funds and funds of funds. Dec Val point calculation at each year end. 11

12 Not extinct yet in active Top-20 groups Outside top-20 with 30+ funds Fewer than 30 funds AUM (end 16) 2.5tn 2.7tn 1.2tn Flows bn 253bn 87bn Flows/Assets 6% 9% 7% Source: Broadridge FundFile data. Active only, excluding money market funds and funds of funds. Dec Group category based on total assets active and passive. 12

13 Bouncing high selected groups M AUM 2016 Sales 2017 Sales/AUM PIMCO 93,226 58,995 63% T Rowe Price 11,439 3,413 30% GAM Holding 65,109 17,516 27% Investec Group 34,357 4,317 13% Pictet 70,077 8,552 12% Source: Active only. Broadridge FundFile data, excluding money market funds and funds of funds. Dec

14 How many elephants does a selector need? Source: Fund Buyer Focus

15 Opportunities for elephants, kangeroos & ants Source: Fund Buyer Focus

16 Stand out size is not the key differentiator

17 Stand out They should be more prepared to stand out from the crowd. For example, I have just been on a trip to see US fund managers and barely did a meeting start without the clichéd introductory claim of "We're different!" Most of what you then heard, however, was anything but different! UK, FoF

18 Survival tactics for all creatures great & small 1. Be an elephant, or 2. Differentiate: 1. Product Innovation 2. Service 3. Brand

19 EVERYBODY GETS IT. THEY UNDERSTAND THAT THESE DAYS, YOU HAVE TO BE VERY LARGE OR VERY SMALL

20 EVERYBODY GETS IT. THEY UNDERSTAND THAT THESE DAYS, YOU HAVE TO BE VERY LARGE OR VERY SMALL in Passive

21 STILL BOUNCING

22 Brand a love story for asset managers Diana Mackay, CEO, MackayWilliams

23 AGENDA Defining brand the emotional tug The difference between like and love Who is getting it right and what are the benefits of being loved.

24 From rational to emotional EMOTIONAL BRAND PREFERENCE RATIONAL Appealing Investment Strategy Client-oriented thinking Expert in what they do Keeping best informed Innovation/Adaptation Solidity Stability of invest mgt team Key International Player Local Knowledge Social Responsibility

25 From rational to emotional RATIONAL Solidity Stability of invest mgt team Key International Player Local Knowledge Social Responsibility

26 Love is Communication Client empathy New ideas Commitment to service offered It s about Telling a story that will turn simple attraction into enduring love and commitment.

27 Connecting size with brand strength Ranking of groups by change to TBS* Group name TBS+/- AUM ( bn) FB50 Rank 1 M&G Sycomore Pictet T Rowe Price PIMCO Average Source: MackayWilliams, Fund Brand 50, AUM data, Broadridge. Data date: 31 December AUM data includes money market funds, funds of funds and ETFs * TBS Total Brand Score

28 There is no single success formula M&G Sycomore Pictet T Rowe PIMCO BRAND PREFERENCE Appealing Investment Strategy Client-oriented thinking Expert in what they do Keeping best informed Innovation/Adaptation

29 Leading German brands: Brand ranking by German fund selectors Group name FB50 rank change 1 DWS -- 2 BlackRock +1 3 Flossbach von Storch -1 4 Allianz GI -- 5 Fidelity -- 6 JPMorgan AM ishares +2 8 Franklin Templeton -- 9 Acatis Invesco +1 Source: MackayWilliams, Fund Brand 50, AUM data, Broadridge. Data date: 31 December Ranking based on interviews with 120 fund selectors

30 Thank you!

31 Testing opinion Diana Mackay, CEO, MackayWilliams

32 What kind of a year are you expecting in 2018 in Europe (long-term funds, including ETFs)? A) Bad European long-term funds will end the year in redemption. 7 8 B) OK but less than half last year s volume ( 0 200bn). 5 C) Good inflows of more than half last year s net volumes ( 200bn 500bn). 2 D) Excellent close to or better than last year ( 500bn 700bn or more). A B C D 32

33 London calling: What kind of a year are you expecting in 2018 in Europe (long-term funds, including ETFs)? % 44% % 4% 0 A) Bad European longterm funds will end the year in redemption. B) OK but less than half last year s volume ( 0 200bn). C) Good inflows of more than half last year s net volumes ( 200bn 500bn). D) Excellent close to or better than last year ( 500bn 700bn or more). 33

34 Our view Net sales forecast for 2018 ( bn) Positive estimate: 314bn Negative estimate: 17bn Assumptions for positive scenario include: Contracting flows into fixed income funds: 75bn a quarter of 2017 volumes; Marginally lower volumes for mixed asset and equity: ~ 100bn each. Negative scenario includes: Equity redemptions of 70bn; Severe contraction in sales on all other sectors: less than 50bn. Source: MackayWilliams analysis based on Broadridge data

35 What has been the most challenging impact of the Mifid 2 commission ban on distribution? A) No real discernible change 14 B) Lost revenues from shrinking partner lists C) Increased pressure on pricing/access to low-cost share classes from distributors D) Bureaucracy and increased cost/burden of target market disclosures and due diligence processes A B C D 35

36 London calling: What has been the most challenging impact of the Mifid 2 commission ban on distribution? % 46% 5 0 0% A) No real discernible change 3% B) Lost revenues from shrinking partner lists C) Increased pressure on pricing/access to low-cost share classes from distributors D) Bureaucracy and increased cost/burden of target market disclosures and due diligence processes 36

37 We are expecting the management fees on our actively managed funds to: A) More or less stay the same as now (assuming ave 75bps) B) Contract by up to 10% 3 C) Contract by 10%-20% D) Contract by 20%-30% E) Reduce by more than 30% A B C D E 37

38 London calling: We are expecting the management fees on our actively managed funds to: % 20 30% 15 18% 10 12% 5 3% 0 A) More or less stay the same as now (assuming ave 75bps) B) Contract by up to 10% C) Contract by 10%- 20% D) Contract by 20%- 30% E) Reduce by more than 30% 38

39 Which distribution channel do you think will experience the most growth in the next five years: A) Retail bank B) Wealth management/private bank discretionary & advisory C) Insurance D) Funds of funds E) Sub-advisory F) D2C platforms/robo-advisers A B C D E F 39

40 London calling: Which distribution channel do you think will experience the most growth in the next five years: % 38% 15 21% % A) Retail bank B) W mgnt/private bank 1% 3% C) Insurance D) Funds of funds E) Sub-advisory F) D2C platforms / Robo 40

41 Which product trends are you devoting more or most energy to? A) Social/sustainable products 8 B) Outcome-oriented funds eg absolute return/income C) Smart beta or factor investing D) Thematic E) Artificial intelligence investing super-quant F) Liquid alternatives A B C D E F 41

42 London calling: Which product trends are you devoting more or most energy to? % 20 30% % 5% 5% 8% 0 42

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44 Passing the lens over Europe in a post-brexit world Sheenagh Gordon-Hart, The Directors Office Independent Director

45 Brexit is closer than you think Uncertainty EU Brexit negotiators rule out an ambitious trade deal for financial services..and the EU27 would benefit from a smaller City of London FT, 31 January 2018

46 Brexit is closer than you think Uncertainty EU Brexit negotiators rule out an ambitious trade deal for financial services..and the EU27 would benefit from a smaller City of London FT, 31 January 2018 The financial services sector is too important to the British economy for Brussels to retain control of it under the existing passporting arrangements UK Prime Minister Mrs May, 4 March 2018

47 Brexit is closer than you think Uncertainty EU Brexit negotiators rule out an ambitious trade deal for financial services..and the EU27 would benefit from a smaller City of London FT, 31 January 2018 The financial services sector is too important to the British economy for Brussels to retain control of it under the existing passporting arrangements UK Prime Minister Mrs May, 4 March 2018 Financial services cannot be in a free trade agreement, for reasons of stability, for the sake of supervision, because there are very specific rules for financial services. French Economy Minister M. Le Maire, 6 March 2018

48 Brexit is closer than you think Uncertainty EU Brexit negotiators rule out an ambitious trade deal for financial services..and the EU27 would benefit from a smaller City of London FT, 31 January 2018 The financial services sector is too important to the British economy for Brussels to retain control of it under the existing passporting arrangements UK Prime Minister Mrs May, 4 March 2018 Financial services cannot be in a free trade agreement, for reasons of stability, for the sake of supervision, because there are very specific rules for financial services. M. Le Maire French Economy Minister, 6 March 2018 Not only is it possible to include financial services within a trade deal it is very much in our mutual interest to do so UK Chancellor Mr Hammond, 7 March 2018

49 Brexit is closer than you think Uncertainty EU Brexit negotiators rule out an ambitious trade deal for financial services..and the EU27 would benefit from a smaller City of London FT, 31 January 2018 The financial services sector is too important to the British economy for Brussels to retain control of it under the existing passporting arrangements UK Prime Minister Mrs May, 4 March 2018 Financial services cannot be in a free trade agreement, for reasons of stability, for the sake of supervision, because there are very specific rules for financial services. M. Le Maire French Economy Minister, 6 March 2018 Not only is it possible to include financial services within a trade deal it is very much in our mutual interest to do so UK Chancellor Mr Hammond, 7 March 2018 Will the outcome be based on the politics of revenge or will pragmatism prevail?

50 Commission ambitions for fund distribution Commission convinced barriers to cross-border distribution must be tackled Marketing restrictions Distribution costs and regulatory fees Administrative arrangements Distribution networks Notification processes Taxation

51 Commission ambitions for fund distribution Commission convinced barriers to cross-border distribution must be tackled Marketing restrictions Distribution costs and regulatory fees Administrative arrangements Distribution networks Notification processes Taxation While the complex regulatory edifice has in itself created a major barrier to entry

52 Commission ambitions for fund distribution A new set of regulatory initiatives The Commission is convinced that if barriers to cross-border fund distribution fund distribution were lifted it would mean: Funds would have greater growth opportunities Increased competition would drive better value Investors would have greater choice Innovation would flourish Significantly reduce compliance costs by further harmonising and increasing the level of transparency of national requirements Cost savings of at least EUR 306 million to EUR 440 million pa and one-off savings of EUR 378 to 467 million More asset managers will chose to distribute cross-border or increase their existing cross-border activities Safeguard investor protection Increase investor choice

53 Commission ambitions for fund distribution A new set of regulatory initiatives: changing the fund market for good? Principles which marketing communications must fulfil: The communications are identifiable as such, Present the risks and rewards of purchasing units or shares in an equally prominent manner, and All information included in marketing communications is fair, clear and not misleading. A transparency framework for national marketing requirements: Regulators must publish marketing rules online Regulators must notify Esma of these marketing rules and will publish and maintain a dedicated central database. Where systematic notification of marketing communications is required by regulators, decisions must be made in 10 working days and may not constitute a prior condition for marketing Regulators must ensure transparent, non-discriminatory treatment regardless of the origin of the fund Regulators must inform Esma annually of any decisions rejecting or requesting adaptations to marketing communications

54 Commission ambitions for fund distribution A new set of regulatory initiatives: changing the fund market for good? Where a regulator levies fees or charges, these must be proportionate to supervisory tasks carried out, and the relevant invoices must be sent to the registered offices of the AIFMs or UCITS management companies: Regulators will have to publish and maintain on their websites central databases on the fees or charges or relevant calculation methodologies Esma will maintain an interactive central database with the fees or charges charged by regulators Esma to establish a central database on all AIFMs, UCITS management companies, AIFs and UCITS Regulators will be required to transmit notifications and notification letters to Esma. Provides for the concept of pre-marketing for EuVecas and EuSefs to allow managers to target investors and test their appetite for new opportunities or strategies through pre-marketing aligning with AIFMD.

55 Commission ambitions for fund distribution A new set of regulatory initiatives: changing the fund market for good? The Regulation is complemented by a Directive: Amending/deleting references to matters dealt with in the directly applicable regulation in existing directives Article 92 of UCITS to be amended - the provision does not impose the obligation on UCITS to have local facilities in each Member State where UCITS are marketed but in practice many Member States require, for example, a local paying agent this will be banned Amendments to align national procedures for changes to the notification procedure for UCITS across funds types and across Member States with a precise time frame for communicating regulatory decisions to ensure uniform and efficient rules and procedures.

56 CMU the cornerstone initiative for the Commission CMU underpins Commission s growth and jobs initiative The Commission s top priority is to strengthen the EU economy and stimulate investment to create jobs. A key element of the Investment Plan for Europe, which aims to strengthen Europe s economy and encourage investment in all Member States, is creating a deeper single market for capital a CMU. Deeper and integrated capital markets will improve the access to capital for companies while aiding in the development of new investment opportunities for savers.

57 CMU the cornerstone initiative for the Commission CMU underpins Commission s growth and jobs initiative the latest instalment New measure to connect finance with the specific needs of the European economy and to enable the financial sector to make use of the rapid advances in new technologies: Action Plan on Sustainable Finance On climate change commitments alone 180 billion of additional investments a year are needed to achieve the EU's 2030 targets agreed in Paris. The Action Plan presented by the Commission has three objectives: re-orient capital flows towards sustainable investment, in order to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth; manage financial risks stemming from climate change, natural disasters, environmental degradation and social issues; and foster transparency and long-termism in financial and economic activity

58 CMU the cornerstone initiative for the Commission CMU underpins Commission s growth and jobs initiative the latest instalment New measure to connect finance with the specific needs of the European economy and to enable the financial sector to make use of the rapid advances in new technologies: Action Plan on Financial Technology The European Commission plans to harness the opportunities presented by technology-enabled innovation in financial services (FinTech). Enabling the financial sector to make use of the rapid advances in new technologies, such as blockchain, artificial intelligence and cloud services Making markets safer and easier to access for new players to benefit consumers, investors, banks and new market players alike Passporting for for platforms, so that a platform licensed in one country can operate across the EU.

59 CMU the cornerstone initiative for the Commission CMU underpins Commission s growth and jobs initiative the latest instalment New measures in the form of action plans are all very well Challenge of sustainability what is it exactly? Mandatory sustainability requirements Definitions taxonomy Risk of making SRI/ESG victim of political preference Risk of mandating what investors can and cannot invest in and there is already some of that Amending MiFID 2 to require advisers to take account of investors sustainability preferences More importantly, SRI/ESG comes in many forms and variations on the theme will appeal to different cohorts it s too early to set SRI/ESG in regulatory stone, if it should ever be set in stone

60 MiFID, PRIIPs, and all the rest MiFID & PRIIPs - Are investors better off? And some random observations Unlikely and not safer either Costs are escalating a report by International Federation of Accountants and BIAC suggests the differences in financial regulations across the world cost businesses (a conservative figure of) $780bn a year these costs are not fully passing through yet In its attempts to promote cross-border distribution of funds the Commission constantly references the Europe/US divide: More funds in the EU (58,000 in the EU compared 15,000 in the US) EU funds are on average significantly smaller, negatively impacting economies of scale, the fees paid by investors, and the way in which the internal market operates for investment funds. Are any of the current initiatives going to change this?

61 Looking ahead And what comes next? It is clear that while we may think the post-crisis regulatory agenda has been delivered and there will be time to get on and build our businesses, the agenda is suddenly becoming crowded again Look out another eighteen months and expect: National regulators have they a future? CMU 2? Pensions? UCITS VI? MiFID 3?

62 Europe in a post-brexit world Thank you for your time Sheenagh Gordon-Hart The Directors Office 19 rue de Bitbourg L-1273 Luxembourg Tel: (+352)