Buy. The best play in Egypt s small cap banks; reiterate Buy HOUSING AND DEVELOPMENT BANK. Fair Value Change & Estimates. Why do we like HDB?

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1 Buy The best play in Egypt s small cap banks; reiterate Buy Fair Value Change & Estimates Why do we like HDB? HDB is our top pick in Egypt s small cap banks due to: i) strong ROE of 22% in 2016e; ii) a high div. yield of 8.8%; iii) high CAR of 17.2% (all tier-1); and iv) low trading multiples: 2016e P/E of 3.3x and PBV of 0.7x, vs. avg P/E of 4.7x and P/B of 0.8x for small-cap banks. It is worth noting that HDB owns land transferred by the Ministry of Housing before 2003, booked at cost and for which there are unrealised gains given the increase in land prices over the past 10yrs. HDB s share price is down 24% YTD despite strong earnings in 1H16, up 25% Y-o-Y on strong net interest income growth, stable credit quality and better operating efficiency. We raise our earnings estimates and expect 43% growth in 2016e and 11% in 2017e. How do we value HDB? HDB is an atypical bank as it has a sizeable real estate (RE) business due to its earlier specialisation in the housing market. We value the bank at EGP15.1/share (61% of FV) at a conservative 0.7x P/B. We also value: i) its associate (55% stake) Hyde park (a large upmarket developer in New Cairo) at EGP6.7 (27% of FV); and ii) RE owned directly by HDB at EGP2.8 (11% of FV). We cut our FV to EGP23.4 (from EGP28.5), which implies 38% upside, after a higher CoE of 18.5% and a deduction of EGP3.4bn in Hyde Park s FV reflecting the amount it still needs to pay to NUCA for the land until Stock Data Rajae Aadel raadel@efg-hermes.com Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo, CFA esanchez@efg-hermes.com Rating Buy Price (24 Oct 2016) EGP17 Fair Value EGP23.4 Last Div. / Ex. Date EGP1.50 on 19 Apr 2016 Mkt. Cap / Shares (mn) EGP2,149 / Av. Monthly Liquidity (mn) EGP Week High / Low EGP22.6 / EGP15.3 Bloomberg / Reuters HDBK EY / HDBK.CA Est. Free Float 22.0% Free funds from land auctions, strong NIMs are they sustainable? ROE is up from 10% in 2014 to 22% in 2016e, thanks to the increase in down payments linked to NUCA s land auctions, for which HDB is the sole agent. Land auctions have risen since 2015, and they should remain strong in 2H16-17 as improving Egyptians access to housing is a key goal for the gov t. Down payments are free funds for HDB as they can be placed in ST liquid investments and their strong volumes, together with higher interest rates have pushed up HDB s NIMs. In Jun-16, free funds were EGP15bn, above HDB s deposits of EGP12bn. Key downside risks for HDB are a change in the size and frequency of land auctions and slower sales at Hyde Park. Key Financial Highlights Dec Year End (EGP mn) 2015a 2016e 2017e 2018e Total Banking Income 1,888 2,273 2,501 2,672 Operating Profit 1,180 1,448 1,554 1,609 Attributable Net Income EPS (EGP) Price to Earnings (x) Dividend Yield (%) Price to Book Value (x) ROAE (%) CAR (%) NPL Coverage (%) Source: Housing and Development Bank, EFG Hermes estimates 1 / 13 pages Please refer to the disclaimer and disclosures at the end of this note. Share Price Performance Relative To HFI (VWAP) Oct Jan 16 Price (EGP) HFI (VWAP) 24 Apr Jul Oct 16

2 DataMiner (Dec Year End) In EGP million, unless otherwise stated 2015a 2016e 2017e 2018e Per Share Numbers EPS (EGP) Reported Dividend Per Share (EGP) BVPS (Reported) (EGP) BVPS (Tangible) (EGP) Valuation Metrics Price to Earnings (x) P/BV (x) Dividend Yield (%) ROAA (%) ROAE (%) Gearing (Assets / Equity) (x) Income Statement Net Interest Income 1,054 1,358 1,542 1,661 Non-Interest Income ,011 Total Banking Income 1,888 2,273 2,501 2,672 Operating Costs (708) (825) (946) (1,063) Operating Profit 1,180 1,448 1,554 1,609 Total Provisions (387) (320) (254) (214) Other Income / Expense Income before Taxes and Zakat 793 1,128 1,301 1,394 Taxes and Zakat (217.9) (304.6) (351.2) (376.5) Minorities & Profit Sharing (100) (163) (219) (235) Attributable Net Income Balance Sheet - Key Highlights Customer Loans 7,506 9,138 9,976 10,941 Other Interest Earning Assets 15,231 17,653 18,276 18,821 Risk-Weighted Assets 12,328 15,017 16,465 18,068 Total Assets 27,287 31,501 33,060 34,551 Customer Deposits 11,581 12,392 13,384 14,454 Other Interest Bearing Liabilities 1,850 2,107 1,499 1,474 Common Shareholders' Equity 2,813 3,182 3,479 3,829 KPIs Loan Growth (%) Loans / Deposits (%) Banking Income Growth (%) Operating Profit Growth (%) Earnings Growth (%) Net Interest Spread (%) Non-Interest Income / Total Banking Income (%) Costs to Income (%) NPL Ratio (%) NPL Coverage Ratio (%) Provisions to Average Gross Loans (bps) Tier 1 Ratio (%) Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) Source: Housing and Development Bank, EFG Hermes estimates Investment Thesis HDB was established as an arm of the Ministry of Housing in the 1970s, to support and develop its real estate projects. While it has shifted its focus towards commercial banking since 2003, it still owns land that it develops. HDB s main banking franchise is the retail segment, with 58% of its loan book being mortgages and personal loans. HDB also has a 55% direct and indirect stake in Hyde Park, a real estate developer in New Cairo targeting high-end households. The bank on a stand-alone basis has lower profitability than peers, but management remains focused on restructuring and on increasing ROE. Valuation and Risks We use a sum of the parts valuation methodology, consisting of: i) the bank; ii) HDB's 55% direct and indirect stake in Hyde Park and iii) land and real estate projects in progress owned by HDB. In our view, the share price does not fully reflect the value of the commercial and real estate business of HDB. Investment risks include: i) negative political developments, which could drive lower-than-expected asset growth; ii) strong further devaluation of the EGP, which could impact negatively customers paying ability and drive higher NPLs; and iii) decline in prices of land bank and slower sales of real estate units. 2 / 13 pages

3 CONTENTS I. HDB TRADES AT A 30% DISCOUNT TO BOOK, A LOW P/E MULTIPLE COMPARED TO SMALL BANKS, WHILE IT OFFERS A HIGHER ROE OF 22% 4 II. KEY TRENDS IN AND CHANGES TO OUR FORECASTS 5 III. WE CUT OUR FAIR VALUE 18% TO EGP23.4; IMPLYING 38% UPSIDE 6 IV. OUR 3Q16 ESTIMATES FOR HDB (CONSOLIDATED LEVEL) 8 V. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 9 3 / 13 pages

4 I. HDB trades at a 30% discount to book, a low P/E multiple compared to small banks, while it offers a higher ROE of 22% Fig. 1. Egypt banks valuation metrics (as of 24 October 2016) Stock Price FV Rating P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROAE (%) D/Y (%) EGP EGP 2015a 2016e 2017e 2015a 2016e 2017e 2015a 2016e 2017e 2015a CIB Neutral CAE Buy Faisal Buy EGB Neutral HDB Buy Al Baraka Neutral ADIB-Egypt Buy Average Average for small banks Source: Bloomberg, EFG Hermes estimates 4 / 13 pages

5 II. Key trends in and changes to our forecasts Key trends we expect to see in 2H e include: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) Acceleration in loan growth boosted by the retail segment through i) the cross selling to the payroll accounts that HDB holds for various Ministries; and ii) the mortgage initiative where HDB holds the largest market share and has granted EGP1.45bn loans for 20,000 customers so far. HDB s loan book is 99.7% EGPdenominated and it is therefore shielded from EGP devaluation; NIM expansion driven mostly by the strong free funds from NUCA s land auctions in NUCA has conducted two auctions so far in 2016 with the latest one in July-August for 21,398 plots having 230,711 participants. Free funds from these auctions reached EGP15bn in 1H16. Management said there would likely be a larger third auction in November 2016 and expects free funds to remain strong in 2H16 and 2017e; Lower fee income on the back of the weak trade volumes due to the sharp FX shortage; Better operational efficiency with the cost-to-income ratio expected to improve to 36% in 2016e, from 38% in 2015 and 47% in HDB revamped its IT infrastructure and set up a new IT system. In addition, the bank redeployed a chunk of its human resources from headquarters to branches to boost their productivity. Fig. 2. Changes to our forecasts In EGPmn, unless otherwise stated New forecasts Change Y-o-Y Vs. old forecasts 2015a 2016e 2017e 2015a 2016e 2017e 2016e 2017e Net interest income 1,054 1,358 1, % 29% 14% 12% 25% Non-interest income % -4% 10% -7% -13% Total banking income 1,601 1,881 2,116 84% 18% 12% 6% 12% Income from housing projects % 36% -2% 18% -1% Total revenues 1,888 2,273 2,501 52% 20% 10% 8% 10% Operating expenses (708) (825) (946) 21% 16% 15% 1% 5% Operating profit 1,180 1,448 1,554 81% 23% 7% 13% 13% Total provisions (387) (320) (254) 359% -17% -21% 25% 14% Extraordinary income Profit before tax 793 1,128 1,301 40% 42% 15% 10% 13% Taxes and Zakat (218) (305) (351) 13% 40% 15% 14% 18% Minorities (7) (11) (52) -82% 61% 361% -73% 13% Net income after minorities % 43% 11% 13% 12% Profit sharing (93) (151) (167) 24% 63% 11% 13% 12% Net attributable income % 39% 11% 13% 12% Customer loans 7,506 9,138 9,976 15% 22% 9% 10% 9% Customer deposits 11,581 12,392 13,384 21% 7% 8% -2% -3% Total assets 27,287 31,501 33,060 18% 15% 5% 17% 14% Source: HDB s financials, EFG Hermes estimates 5 / 13 pages

6 Fig. 3. HDB: Sum-of-the-parts valuation summary In EGPmn, unless otherwise stated III. We cut our fair value 18% to EGP23.4; implying 38% upside We value HDB using a sum of the part valuation methodology as explained here and in our latest report 1. HDB S commercial banking operations 2. HYDE Park Associate Gordon growth model A. Net asset value Value at cost 3. Land + work in progress owned directly by HDB RoE (over the cycle) 15.0%Total land bank (mn sqm) 3.28Total land bank owned (sqm) 236,587 CoE 18.5%* Price per sqm (EGP) 1,500 Long term growth rate 8.0%= Land bank value 4,922Total cost of owned land bank Net debt (1,200)Total cost of work in progress Land liability (3,400) = Net asset value Receivables after 35% net profit margin 1 Implied PBV (ROE-g/COE-g) 0.7x= Total value 975 Book value of bank only (2016e) 2,863HDB's direct & indirect stake (55% 2 ) Value per share (EGP) 4.14 B. Selling price per sqm Built up area (sqm) 2.3 * Selling price / sqm (EGP) 10,000 = Potential total revenue 23,000 Discounted revenues at CoE 19,409 Potential net profit at 35% margin 6,793 Value excl. debt & land liability 2,193 HDB's direct & indirect stake (55% 2 ) 1,177 Value per share (EGP) 9.30 Value of the bank only 1,909 Value of Hyde Park stake 850 Value of land and RE owned 355 Value per share (EGP) Value per share (EGP) Value per share (EGP) 2.81 As a % of total value 61% As a % of total value 27% As a % of total value 11% Total Value (1+2+3) 3,114 Number of shares (mn) Value per share (EGP) Diversification discount 5%To reflect the bank s large real estate business and its numerous subsidiaries Fair Value (EGP) Current share price (24 Oct. 2016) Upside 38% Source: EFG Hermes estimates, HDB s financials 1 We discount EGP2bn receivables at a discount rate of 12% / 2: HDB holds a direct stake of 36.9% in Hyde Park and holds an indirect stake of 18 % through its subsidiary Holding Co for Investment and Development (92% held by HDB) / 3 Average of the two valuation methodologies A and B 6 / 13 pages

7 IV. Our 3Q16 estimates for HDB (consolidated level) Fig. 4. HDB s 3Q16 estimates (consolidated) In EGPmn, unless otherwise stated 3Q15 2Q16 3Q16e Y-o-Y Q-o-Q Income Statement Net interest income % 14% Fees & commissions % 5% Investment and trading Income % -5% Other income % -23% Non-interest income % -14% Total banking income % 3% Operating expenses (179) (229) (240) 34% 5% Operating income % 3% Loan loss provisions (25) (47) (55) 121% 18% Other provisions (172) (34) (45) Total provisions (197) (81) (100) -49% 23% Other income / expense Pre-tax income % -3% Taxes (29) (90) (88) Tax rate 22% 29% 29% Net income before minorities % -3% Minority interest (2) (2) (2) Net income % -3% Balance Sheet- Key Figures Loans 7,197 8,670 8,930 24% 3% Deposits 11,334 11,889 12,007 6% 1% Total assets 27,958 38,002 39,142 40% 3% Key Ratios Net interest spread 2.56% 2.14% 1.71% Loans-to-deposits 64% 73% 74% Costs-to-income 35% 37% 37% NPL ratio 7.1% 6.8% 7.0% Source: HDB s financials, EFG Hermes estimates 7 / 13 pages

8 V. Financial Statements Income Statement (Dec Year End) In EGP million 2015a 2016e 2017e 2018e Net Interest Income 1,054 1,358 1,542 1,661 Fees & Commissions Forex Income Investment Income Property & Other Income Non-Interest Income ,011 Total Banking Income 1,888 2,273 2,501 2,672 Operating Expense (708) (825) (946) (1,063) Operating Profit 1,180 1,448 1,554 1,609 Loan Loss Provisions (128) (170) (154) (144) Other Provisions (259) (150) (100) (70) Other Income / Expense Pre-Tax Profit 793 1,128 1,301 1,394 Taxes (218) (305) (351) (377) Net Profit before Minorities ,018 Minorities & Profit Sharing (100) (163) (219) (235) Attributable Net Income Source: Housing and Development Bank, EFG Hermes estimates Balance Sheet (Dec Year End) In EGP million 2015a 2016e 2017e 2018e Cash & Central Bank 1,913 2,107 2,008 2,024 Interbank Assets 6,639 5,576 5,353 5,059 Investments 7,943 11,183 12,136 12,967 Customer Loans 7,506 9,138 9,976 10,941 Goodwill & Intangibles Fixed & Other Assets 3,286 3,496 3,586 3,561 Total Assets 27,287 31,501 33,060 34,551 Interbank Deposits Customer Deposits 11,581 12,392 13,384 14,454 Borrowings 1,734 1,859 1,338 1,301 Other Liabilities 10,990 13,761 14,592 14,638 Total Liabilities 24,422 28,260 29,475 30,566 Common Shareholders' Equity 2,813 3,182 3,479 3,829 Other Capital Minority Interest Total Equity and Liabilities 27,287 31,501 33,060 34,551 Source: Housing and Development Bank, EFG Hermes estimates 8 / 13 pages

9 Key Performance Indicators 2015a 2016e 2017e 2018e Dupont Analysis (%) of Average Assets Net Interest Income Non-Interest Income Operating Expense Other Revenue (Expense) Provisioning Taxes ROAA Gearing (Assets / Equity) (x) ROAE Profitability Yield on Interest Earning Assets Cost of Funds (6.57) (7.30) (7.30) (7.20) Net Interest Spread Net Interest Margin Non-Interest Income / Total Banking Income Costs to Income Effective Tax Rate Asset Quality NPL Ratio NPL Coverage Ratio Provisioning Charge / Average Gross Loans (bps) Capital Tier 1 Ratio Capital Adequacy Ratio Risk Weighted Assets / Total Assets Growth Rates Loan Growth (Y-o-Y) Deposit Growth (Y-o-Y) Assets Growth (Y-o-Y) Risk-Weighted Assets Growth (Y-o-Y) Net Interest Income Growth (Y-o-Y) Fee & Commission Income Growth (Y-o-Y) 57.7 (10.0) Non-Interest Income Growth (Y-o-Y) Banking Income Growth (Y-o-Y) Operating Expenses Growth (Y-o-Y) Operating Profit Growth (Y-o-Y) Earnings Growth (Y-o-Y) Other Ratios Loans / Deposits Loans / Assets Deposits / IBL Source: Housing and Development Bank, EFG Hermes estimates 9 / 13 pages

10 RATING AND FAIR VALUE CHART HOUSING & DEV. BANK (HDBK.CA) PRICE (EGP) EGP (24-Oct-2016) 4/20/ Oct-2015 to 24-Oct /25/2015 1/25/2016 4/25/2016 7/25/2016 Closing Price Fair Value Postive Chg Fair Value Negative Chg Recommendation Chg Date From To Price 20-Apr-2016 Fair Value EGP29.65 Fair Value EGP28.47 EGP17.65 RATING DISTRIBUTION Rating Coverage Universe % Buy 39% Neutral 52% Sell 9% N/R U/R 0% 10 / 13 pages

11 ANALYST CERTIFICATION We, Rajae Aadel and Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo, CFA, hereby certify that the views expressed in this document accurately reflect our personal views about the securities and companies that are the subject of this report. We also certify that neither we or our spouse[s] or dependants (if relevant) hold a beneficial interest in the securities that are subject of this report. We also certify that no part of our respective compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or view expressed in this research report. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES EFG Hermes Holding, or any of its subsidiaries or officers (other than the authors of this report) may have a financial interest in one or any of the securities that are the subject of this report. Funds managed by EFG Hermes Holding SAE and its subsidiaries (together and separately, EFG Hermes ) for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this report. EFG Hermes may own shares in one or more of the aforementioned funds or in funds managed by third parties. The author(s) of this report may own shares in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this report as part of a diversified portfolio over which the author(s) has/have no discretion. The Investment Banking division of EFG Hermes may be in the process of soliciting or executing fee-earning mandates for companies (or affiliates of companies) that are either the subject of this report or are mentioned in this report. Research reports issued by EFG Hermes are prepared and issued in accordance with the requirements of the local exchange conduct of business rules, where the stock is primarily listed. INVESTMENT DISCLAIMERS This research report is prepared for general circulation and has been sent to you as a client of one of the entities in the EFG Hermes Group and is intended for general information purposes only. 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12 GUIDE TO ANALYSIS EFG Hermes investment research is based on fundamental analysis of companies and stocks, the sectors that they are exposed to, as well as the country and regional economic environment. In special situations, EFG Hermes may assign a rating for a stock that is different from the one indicated by the 12-month expected return relative to the corresponding fair value. For the 12-month long-term ratings for any investment covered in our research, the ratings are defined by the following ranges in percentage terms: Rating Potential Upside (Downside) % Buy Above 15% Neutral (10%) and 15% Sell Below (10%) EFG Hermes policy is to update research reports when appropriate based on material changes in a company s financial performance, the sector outlook, the general economic outlook, or any other changes which could impact the analyst s outlook or rating for the company. Share price volatility may cause a stock to move outside of the longer-term rating range to which the original rating was applied. In such cases, the analyst will not necessarily need to adjust the rating for the stock immediately. However, if a stock has been outside of its longer-term investment rating range consistently for 30 days or more, the analyst will be encouraged to review the rating. COPYRIGHT AND CONFIDENTIALITY No part of this document may be reproduced without the written permission of EFG Hermes. The information within this research report must not be disclosed to any other person if and until EFG Hermes has made the information publicly available. CONTACTS AND STATEMENTS Report prepared by EFG Hermes Holding SAE (main office), Building No. B129, Phase 3, Smart Village, KM 28, Cairo-Alexandria Desert Road, Egypt 12577, Tel Fax which has an issued capital of EGP 2,391,473,750. Reviewed and approved by EFG Hermes KSA (closed Joint Stock Company) which is commercially registered in Riyadh with Commercial Registration number , and EFG Hermes UAE Limited, which is regulated by the DFSA and has its address at Level 6, The Gate, DIFC, Dubai, UAE. The information in this document is directed only at institutional investors. If you are not an institutional investor you must not act on it. BLOOMBERG EFGH REUTERS PAGES.EFGS.HRMS.EFGI.HFISMCAP.HFIDOM efghermesresearch.com 12 / 13 pages

13 EGYPT TEAM UAE TEAM KSA TEAM RESEARCH MANAGEMENT Local Call Center Call Center Call Center Cairo General Call Center: /13/81 UAE General cc-hsb@efg-hermes.com efg-hermescallcenter@efghermes.com RiyadhTraders@efg-hermes.com efgresearch@efg-hermes.com Institutional Sales Institutional Sales GCC High Net Worth Sales Head of Research Mohamed Aly Ramy El Essawy Loay Abdel Meneam Ahmed Shams El Din maly@efg-hermes.com ressawy@efg-hermes.com labdelmeneam@efg-hermes.com ashamseldin@efg-hermes.com GCC High Net Worth Sales GCC High Net Worth Sales Head of Publ. and Distribution Hatem Adnan Rami Samy Rasha Samir hadnan@efg-hermes.com rsamy@efg-hermes.com rsamir@efg-hermes.com Individual Sales Bassam Nour bassam@efg-hermes.com 13 / 13 pages