Euro Fixed Income. June Michael Krautzberger, Managing Director, Head of Euro Fixed Income FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY
|
|
- Randall Ford
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Euro Fixed Income Michael Krautzberger, Managing Director, Head of Euro Fixed Income June 2011 FOR PROFESSIONAL INTERMEDIARIES ONLY
2 Numerous significant headlines in 2011 so far, but Financial markets have held up remarkably well in the first quarter despite political revolutions and economic weakness 2011 headlines Globally: Capital controls Increasing central bank rates Food and energy price increases Q returns US: 1Q GDP weakness Government shutdown saga European ratings crises: Ireland Portugal Greece Middle East / North Africa revolutions Syria Libya Egypt Bahrain Japan: Earthquake Tsunami Nuclear disaster Supply disruptions US Treasuries (bps) Commodities (%) Currencies (%) Fixed Income (%) Equities (%) 2-year 0.23 Oil 14.3 USD -4.0 IG Credit 0.9 S&P year 0.27 Gold 0.8 GBP 2.7 High Yield 3.9 FTSE year 0.18 Corn 9.5 Euro 5.8 CMBS 2.1 Euro Stoxx year 0.17 Cotton 49.2 Yen -2.4 Source: Bloomberg Emerging markets 1.6 Nikkei
3 Euro Area Ranks Well in International Comparison If the euro area could be seen as a single fiscal area, its debt and deficit metrics would compare favourably with Japan, the US and the UK However, the euro area is not currently one single fiscal area and internal imbalances have built up over the last decade as excessive consumption in peripheral markets was financed by excessive saving in core Europe Peripheral countries ran up twin deficits and their domestic economies lost competitiveness within the Euro area and internationally and as growth slowed over the financial crises, the public sector took up the slack Lasting damage was done to potential growth & banks balance sheets when the real estate bubbles burst in Spain and Ireland and the construction sectors collapsed General Government Deficit & Debt (% GDP) OECD Medium-term Fiscal Sustainability Scenario* Japan OECD US Euro area UK % of GDP United States Japan United Kingdom Euro area % of GDP Gross Financial Liabilities (RHS) 2007 Deficit 2011 Deficit 2017 Deficit 2007 Debt, RHS 2011 Debt, RHS 2017 Debt, RHS Source: OECD & EC Source: OECD * 6 years of consolidation (6pp of GDP from 2012) 3
4 Central Bank real rates are negative Global Central Bank rates are very low relative to inflation rates 8 6 ECB Real Rate Fed Real Rate BoE Real Rate PBOC 7d Real Rate Source: BlackRock For use with institutional and professional investors only proprietary and confidential 4
5 Where Next? European Solution - Extend & Pretend Further downward rating migration likely in the periphery Numerous peripheral downgrades to date as ratings converge to market perceptions/valuations Further downwards rating migration likely in the near term as agencies continue to digest the credit implications of the ESM & in the medium term as the full costs of the financial crisis become known & additional fiscal consolidation gets harder to achieve politically & dampens growth prospects Portugal, Greece, & Ireland were downgraded by S&P on the back of the credit implications of accessing the ESM e.g. the likelihood of private sector involvement & subordination of private sector creditors There is limited scope for upgrades if economic growth is better than expected &/or governments manage to achieve deficit & debt targets faster than expected Country Moody s S&P Fitch Austria Aaa Belgium Aa1 AA+ AA+ Finland Aaa France Aaa Germany Aaa Greece B1 Review for Downgrade B BB+ Ireland Baa3 BBB+ BBB+ Review for Downgrade Italy Aa2 A+ AA- Netherlands Aaa Portugal A3 BBB- BBB- Review for Downgrade Spain Aa2 AA AA+ UK Aaa 5
6 It has been a rocky ride in Europe over the last 8 months German 2y Bund Yield (%) Peripheral Spreads over Germany % Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Percent Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Source: Bloomberg to May 2011 Portugal Ireland Volatility in peripheral markets, mounting inflationary pressures and a rapid change in central bank direction and rhetoric caused a sharp back up in government yields moving into The correlation between credit and peripheral sovereigns has been high During the six month period from 30/09/2010 to 31/03/2011, passive benchmark investors witnessed negative returns with the Euro Aggregate Benchmark returning -3.61% and the Euro Aggregate 1-3 Year Benchmark returning -0.22% 6
7 German yields distorted by safe haven flows During Q4 2010, relative to the outlook for economic growth, German yields were far too low and had benefitted from the safe haven bid. Coming into 2011, duration moved to a more neutral stance and traded tactically Industrial Production vs. German and Spanish Yields Mar-05 Nov-05 Jul-06 Mar-07 Nov-07 Jul-08 Mar-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 Mar-11 Spain 2y (lhs) Germany 2y (lhs) Short European duration Spain Ind. Prod. YoY (4 per. mov. avg.) Germany Ind. Prod. YoY (4 per. mov. avg.) 7
8 2-year Spanish and Italian yields are unchanged since the start of 2011 however not the same can be said about Germany Yield % /01/11 10/01/11 17/01/11 24/01/11 31/01/11 07/02/11 14/02/11 21/02/11 28/02/11 07/03/11 14/03/11 21/03/11 28/03/11 04/04/11 11/04/11 18/04/11 25/04/11 02/05/11 09/05/11 16/05/11 23/05/11 30/05/11 06/06/11 Germany 2yr Italy 2yr Spain 2yr Source: Bloomberg
9 Inflation short term risks are clearly to the upside The difficulty of calculating the output gap is well documented. ECB member Stark has said inflation arguments based on the size of the output gap are flawed. Pressures stem from non-domestic factors. - Globalisation is now reversing and we are importing inflation from developing economies Input prices:- Food:- - Weather related supply shocks are keeping prices high - However structural demand has increased as China continues to grow - The recent increase in raw food prices does not appear to have fully fed into HICP yet 9
10 ECB watch: Where Next? The ECB is priced for slightly more than one additional hike in 2011 However they continue to provide liquidity to the banking sector Jean Claude Trichet, 3 rd March Our message for all price setters is that they have to take into account that the ECB will not permit second-round effects to emerge from the stronger commodity prices...."what we can do is clearly to avoid that" commodity shocks will have second round consequences. Expected EONIA rates at the December ECB meeting Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 10
11 Yield Curve: Focus on country differentials The Italian and Spanish yield curves have steepened considerably over the last months. Portugal, on the verge of below investment grade status has an inverted yield curve. Italy and Spain offer relative value opportunities Yield % Yield % yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 15yr 30yr 4 Italy (LHS) Spain (LHS) Germany (LHS) Portugal (RHS) Source: Bloomberg Data available to 2 th June
12 Relative Value opportunities on mid-tier periphery resilience Italian CDS is back to the levels seen before the Greek debacle Yield % bps Jan-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 May-11 0 Italy 5yr yield (LHS) Italy CDS (RHS) Source: Bloomberg. 12
13 Flatness in the Euro Money Market Despite talks of stimulus withdrawal, outstanding flatness offers compelling risk/return trade-off September 2012 contract - March 2012 contract Closed position bps Opened position 5 0 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Source: Bloomberg. 13
14 Credit: Focus on Security Selection Likes : Dislikes + Avoids Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 BlackRock Credit Analysis: Likes / Dislikes + Avoids Source: Bloomberg Data available to 5 th May 2011
15 Credit: Euro Covered vs. Senior Banking OAS Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 EUR Covered vs. Senior Banking OAS EUR Covered EUR Banking Senior
16 The following notes should be read in conjunction with the attached document: 1. Issued by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered office: 33 King William Street, London, EC4R 9AS. Tel: Registered in England No For your protection telephone calls are usually recorded. BlackRock is a trading name of BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited. Issued in Switzerland by the representative office, BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited (London), to Claridenstrasse 25, Postfach 2118 CH-8022 Zürich, from where the Company's Prospectus, Simplified Prospectus, Articles of Association, Annual Report and Interim Report are available free of charge. Paying Agent in Switzerland is JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, Columbus, Zurich Branch Switzerland, Dreikönigstrasse 21, CH-8002 Zurich. For further information, the prospectus, simplified prospectuses, annual report and semi-annual report can be obtained free of charge in hardcopy form from the Austrian paying agent: Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG, A-1030 Vienna, Am Stadtpark Past performance is not a guide to future performance and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. All financial investments involve an element of risk. Therefore, the value of your investment and the income from it will vary and your initial investment amount cannot be guaranteed. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to go up and down. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time. 3. The fund invests a large portion of assets which are denominated in other currencies; hence changes in the relevant exchange rate will affect the value of the investment. The fund invests in fixed interest securities issued by companies which, compared to bonds issued or guaranteed by governments, are exposed to greater risk of default in the repayment of the capital provided to the company or interest payments due to the fund. The fund invests in fixed interest securities such as corporate or government bonds which pay a fixed or variable rate of interest (also known as the coupon ) and behave similarly to a loan. These securities are therefore exposed to changes in interest rates which will affect the value of any securities held. The fund(s) may invest in structured credit products such as asset backed securities ( ABS ) which pool together mortgages and other debts into single or multiple series credit products which are then passed on to investors, normally in return for interest payments based on the cash flows from the underlying assets. These securities have similar characteristics to corporate bonds but carry greater risk as the details of the underlying loans is unknown, although loans with similar terms are typically packaged together. The stability of returns from ABS are not only dependent on changes in interest-rates but also changes in the repayments of the underlying loans as a result of changes in economic conditions or the circumstances of the holder of the loan. These securities can therefore be more sensitive to economic events, may be subject to severe price movements and can be more difficult and/or more expensive to sell in difficult markets. 4. BlackRock Global Funds (BGF) is an open-ended investment company established in Luxembourg which is available for sale in certain jurisdictions only. BGF is not available for sale in the U.S. or to U.S. persons. Product information concerning BGF should not be published in the U.S. It is recognised under Section 264 of the Financial Services and Markets Act BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited is the UK distributor of BGF. Most of the protections provided by the UK regulatory system, and the compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, will not be available. A limited range of BGF sub-funds have a distributor status A sterling share class that seeks to comply with UK Distributor Status requirements. Subscriptions in BGF are valid only if made on the basis of the current Prospectus, the most recent financial reports and the Simplified Prospectus which are available on our website. Prospectuses, Simplified Prospectuses and application forms may not be available to investors in certain jurisdictions where the Fund in question has not been authorised. Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy. 5. Unless otherwise specified, all information contained in this document is current as at the date on the front page of this presentation. 6. No part of this material may be reproduced, stored in retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, recording or otherwise, without the prior written consent of BlackRock. THIS MATERIAL IS FOR DISTRIBUTION TO PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON BY ANY OTHER PERSONS. 16
PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012
PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 1 Working paper, September 1. Kindly authorized by the Author.
More information2011 Ringgit Bond Market Outlook
211 Ringgit Bond Market Outlook Wan Murezani Wan Mohamad Head Fixed Income Research 211 Investor Briefing 22 March 211 MALAYSIAN RATING CORPORATION BERHAD Clarity and Integrity www.marc.com.my Disclaimer
More informationThe Greek Bond Market in 2007
The Greek Bond Market in 2007 15 YEAR BENCHMARK ISSUE MAY 2007 MARKET ANALYSIS +30 210 326 2070, marketanalysis@alpha.gr Financial Markets Group Planning Department Please refer to important Disclaimer
More informationEurope Outlook. Third Quarter 2015
Europe Outlook Third Quarter 2015 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 Moderation of global growth and slowdown in emerging economies, with downside risks The recovery continues in the eurozone, but still marked by
More informationEurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable
More informationHigh yield and emerging market bonds continue rally
Markit iboxx monthly report April 216 High yield and emerging market bonds continue rally April saw corporate and emerging market bond returns continue to gain amid a calmer economic backdrop. Calmer markets
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. July 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More informationSome Historical Examples of Yield Curves
3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 10 years 30 years Some Historical Examples of Yield Curves Nominal interest rate, % 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 January 1981 June1999 December2009 0 Time to maturity This
More informationThe case for lower rated corporate bonds
The case for lower rated corporate bonds Marcus Pakenham Fixed income product specialist December 3 Introduction Where should fixed income investors be positioned over the medium term? We expect that government
More informationPotential Gains from the Reform Package
Chart 1 Potential Gains from the Reform Package GDP per capita, % 18 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 Ireland Germany Finland Portugal Spain France Greece Note: The estimated cumulative GDP impact from structural reforms
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute November 2018 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More information05 April Government bond yields, curve slopes and spreads Swaps and Forwards Credit & money market spreads... 4
Strategy Euro Rates Update Nordea Research, April 1 US Treasury Yields Y Y 1Y 3Y.7 1.3 1.79.3 1D -. -. -1. -1. 1W -9. -. -11. -. German Benchmark Yields Y Y 1Y 3Y -. -.3.1.77 1D...1 -.1 1W.3 -. -7.1-1.
More informationEUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017
EUROZONE ECONOMIC WATCH JANUARY 2017 Key messages: some changes for the better Improving confidence in across the board shows the resilience of the eurozone to the various potentially disturbing political
More informationB-GUIDE: Economic Outlook
Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16 Apr-17 Jul-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 4 2017 4 January 2018 B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook The economy
More information31 Mar Executive Summary. Analyst Tan Xuan
Analyst Tan Xuan +6565311579 tanx@phillip.com.sg Executive Summary Uncertain and Volatile Market Recent Japan earthquake and tsunami, MENA unrest and ongoing Europe debt crisis are likely to cause volatility
More informationOUTLOOK FOR THE NEW ZEALAND GOVERNMENT DEBT MARKET. 1 The Treasury
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEW ZEALAND GOVERNMENT DEBT MARKET 1 The Treasury TODAY Economic outlook New Zealand Government: risk/reward Fiscal priorities NZDMO s strategy What to watch for 2 1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 3
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. March 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone Economic Watch March 20 Eurozone: The moderation of confidence continues We expect GDP growth to remain steady early this year supported mostly by strong global
More informationEuro Rates Update. 26 January % 0.9% 0.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.4% 2.0% 0.3% 0.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% Jan-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16
FI Strategy Nordea Research, January 1 US Treasury Yields Y Y 1Y 3Y.7 1... 1D -1.7 -. -. -. 1W.3.9 1. -1. German Benchmark Yields Y Y 1Y 3Y -. -.3. 1. 1D -. -.3-1.7-3. 1W -. -.7. -.1 German Curve Slopes
More informationLiability hedging in a world without risk-free assets
Liability hedging in a world without risk-free assets Anthony MacGuinness & John Thornton Nov 2012 Agenda Liability Driven Investment (LDI) Background & Regulation Environment Liability Hedging: Practitioner's
More informationCorporate bonds resurgent in March
Corporate bonds resurgent in March Markit iboxx monthly report March 216 After a volatile start to the year, fixed income returns bounced back in spectacular fashion with corporate and emerging market
More information1.1. Low yield environment
1. Key developments The overall macroeconomic environment remains very challenging for the European insurance and pension sector. The yields have been further compressed and are substantially below the
More informationEuro Rates Update. 26 February % 0.9% 0.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.4% 2.0% 0.3% 0.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0%
FI Strategy Euro Rates Update Nordea Research, 6 February 6 US Treasury Yields Y Y Y Y.7.8.7.6 D....7 W -.6 -. -.7 -. German Benchmark Yields Y Y Y Y -. -...8 D -. -..7. W -. -.8 -.8 -. German Curve Slopes
More informationMarkets Overview Pulse & calendar Economic scenario
: : : : 8: 1: 1: 1: 1: 18: : : : : : : 8: 1: 1: 1: 1: 18: : : : : : : 8: 1: 1: 1: Markets have reacted in a calm way to the US decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal Despite the increase in geopolitical
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. November 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch November 2017 Eurozone: improved outlook, still subdued inflation Our MICA-BBVA model for growth estimates for the moment a quarterly GDP figure of around -0.7% in, after % QoQ
More informationHSBC Portfolios - World Selection 1
HSBC Portfolios - World Selection 1 J Share Class BCHGBP 28 Feb 2019 BCHGBP 28/02/2019 Fund Objective and Strategy Investment Objective The Fund aims to provide long term total returns (meaning income
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. February 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch February 2018 Eurozone: Strong growth continues in 1Q18, but confidence seems to peak GDP growth moderated slightly in, but there was an upward revision to previous quarters. Available
More informationShort-term indicators and Updated Forecasts. Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016
Short-term indicators and Updated Forecasts Eurozone NOVEMBER 2016 EUROZONE WATCH NOVEMBER 2016 Key messages: resilience and unchanged projections The moderate pace of economic growth continued in the
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. April 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch April 2018 Eurozone: solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Confidence has weakened in 1Q18 since the
More informationThe ECB s Strategy in Good and Bad Times Massimo Rostagno European Central Bank
The ECB s Strategy in Good and Bad Times Massimo Rostagno European Central Bank The views expressed herein are those of the presenter only and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB or the European
More informationThe increasing importance of multi asset solutions genuine diversification to reduce total risk
The increasing importance of multi asset solutions genuine diversification to reduce total risk Ariconsult Vermögensverwaltungs-Symposium 17 September 2014 Richard Batty Fund Manager, Multi Asset This
More informationEuropean Bond Spreads, Yield Curves And Volatility
European Bond Spreads, Yield Curves And Volatility A client posed the question a few years ago during one of the many rolling sovereign credit crises then roiling the Eurozone as to when the whole thing
More informationChallenges to the single monetary policy and the ECB s response. Benoît Cœuré Member of the Executive Board European Central Bank
Challenges to the single monetary policy and the ECB s response Benoît Cœuré Member of the Executive Board European Central Bank Institut d études politiques, Paris 2 September 212 1 Prime conduit of monetary
More informationHSBC Portfolios - World Selection 2
HSBC Portfolios - World Selection 2 J Share Class ACHEUR 30 Jun 2018 ACHEUR 30/06/2018 Fund Objective and Strategy Investment Objective The Fund aims to provide long term total returns (meaning income
More informationGlobalisation and central bank policies
Globalisation and central bank policies Lucas Papademos European Central Bank Bridge Forum Dialogue 22 January 28, Luxembourg 1 Chart 1: Oil and other commodity prices Brent crude oil price (USD per barrel)
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. May 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch May 2018 BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Eurozone: more moderate growth with higher uncertainty The eurozone GDP growth slowed in more than expected. Beyond temporary
More informationECB LTRO Dec Greece program
International Monetary Fund June 9, 212 Euro Area Crisis: Still in the Danger Zone */ Emil Stavrev Research Department ( */ Views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily
More informationConfronting the Global Crisis in Latin America: What is the Outlook? Coordinators
Confronting the Global Crisis in Latin America: What is the Outlook? Policy Trade-offs May for 20, Unprecedented 2009 - Maison Times: Confronting de l Amérique the Global Crisis Latine, America, ParisIADB,
More informationDEVELOPMENTS IN THE COST COMPETITIVENESS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN MAIN FEATURES
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE COST COMPETITIVENESS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN MAIN FEATURES The euro against major international currencies: During the first quarter of 2001, the euro appreciated
More informationExpanding the traditional fixed income opportunity set. JOANNA LANGTON Product Strategist, BlackRock Fixed Income Portfolio Management Group
Expanding the traditional fixed income opportunity set JOANNA LANGTON Product Strategist, BlackRock Fixed Income Portfolio Management Group Fixed income is no longer the safe haven that investors perceive
More informationHSBC Portfolios - World Selection 2
HSBC Portfolios - World Selection 2 J Share Class ACHGBP 31 Oct 2018 ACHGBP 31/10/2018 Fund Objective and Strategy Investment Objective The Fund aims to provide long term total returns (meaning income
More informationExecutive Board meeting. 14 December 2011
Executive Board meeting December EU measures ECB Key policy rate has been reduced to. percent Measures: Liquidity operation with a maturity of months Reserve requirements reduced from to per cent Reduced
More information1.1. Low yield environment
1. Key developments Overall, the macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated since June 215. Although many European countries continue to recover, economic growth still remains fragile reflecting high public
More informationDEVELOPMENTS IN THE COST COMPETITIVENESS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN MAIN FEATURES
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE COST COMPETITIVENESS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN MAIN FEATURES The euro against major international currencies: During the second quarter of 2000, the US dollar,
More informationEurozone. Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017
Eurozone Economic Watch FEBRUARY 2017 EUROZONE WATCH FEBRUARY 2017 Eurozone: A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections The recovery proceeded at a steady and solid pace in, resulting in an
More informationAberdeen Asset Management
Aberdeen Asset Management Fixed income overview March 2016 David Lloyd-Nolan, Senior Fixed Income Product Specialist Aberdeen Asset Management For professional investors only Not for public distribution
More informationEuropean Equity Update
European Equity Update Matt Williams, Director, European Equities May 2017 Flow as a % of AUM Yield spread European equities are not popular Positioning Significant outflows from the region... driven by
More information2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch
2016 Economic Outlook for Ireland & Eurozone IFP Launch December 3 rd 2015 Jim Power Global Background US & UK growing at reasonable pace Euro Zone growing well below potential Emerging markets in some
More informationKazakhstan s CDS and bond yields on the rise
RESEARCH AND KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT 22 September 2017 Kazakhstan s CDS and bond yields on the rise Tenge has weakened by 1.5% in the past two weeks to 340.4/USD on 21 September. NBK expects tenge to remain
More informationB-GUIDE: Market Outlook
Quarterly Market Outlook: Quarter 1 2018 on 5 th January 2018 Investment Outlook for 1 st Quarter 2018 Accelerating Global Economy Supports the Rising Earnings Equity Thailand US Europe Japan Asia Bond
More informationGlobal House View: Market Outlook
HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT September 29 Global House View: Market Outlook Contents 1688/HSB1395a Market performance Macro-economic Picture Market Views: high level asset allocation Market Views: Equity
More informationMonitor Euro area deflation
Investment Research General Market Conditions 17 July 2014 Euro area deflation Inflation outlook Euro inflation remained very low at 0.5% in June and is still far below the ECB s target. In response, the
More informationEconomic activity gathers pace
Produced by the Economic Research Unit October 2014 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Economic activity gathers pace Positive data flow Recovery broadening out GDP growth revised up to
More informationBrit-in or Brexit : Hedging in Times of Geopolitical Uncertainty
WWW.WISDOMTREE.COM + () 8 6 Brit-in or Brexit : Hedging in Times of Geopolitical Uncertainty Disclaimer This document is issued by WisdomTree Europe Ltd ( WTE ) an appointed representative of Mirabella
More information2015 Market Review & Outlook. January 29, 2015
2015 Market Review & Outlook January 29, 2015 Economic Outlook Jason O. Jackman, CFA President & Chief Investment Officer Percentage Interest Rates Unexpectedly Decline 4.5 10-Year Government Yield 4 3.5
More informationFor professional advisers only. Schroders. for Bonds. Strength. in bonds. Best Large Fixed-Interest House
For professional advisers only Schroders for Bonds Strength in bonds Best Large Fixed-Interest House Why Schroders for bonds? Experience: Schroders has a long and successful history, commencing in 1804.
More informationRecent Developments Money Market MMCG Meeting
Recent Developments Money Market MMCG Meeting 18.03.04 Schedule Major Events Capital Markets Money Market Outlook Regulatory Credit Provision FRA EONIA FWD EONIA Monetary Policy Equity Markets Liquidity
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More informationEDM Ahorro Corporate Bonds Return Date: 31/12/2017 Snapshot Global Category Custodian / Administrator Auditor Domicile UCITS Morningstar Rating 3 Yr Morningstar Rating 5 Yr Fund s Data Inception Date Month
More informationHSBC Portfolios - World Selection 2
HSBC Portfolios - World Selection 2 J Share Class AC 31 Aug 2018 AC 31/08/2018 Fund Objective and Strategy Investment Objective The Fund aims to provide long term total returns (meaning income and capital
More informationBy John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.*
By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.* For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationMacroeconomic overview SEE and Macedonia
Macroeconomic overview SEE and Macedonia Zoltan Arokszallasi Chief Analyst, Macro & FX/FI Research Erste Group Bank Erste Investors Breakfast, 29 September, Skopje 02. Oktober SEE shows mixed performance
More informationGlobal Outlook and Policy Challenges. Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor Research Department
Global Outlook and Policy Challenges Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor Research Department February, 29 Global Outlook Has Deteriorated, but Modest Turnaround Anticipated with Policy Stimulus 1 WEO
More informationTrends and opportunities across regions: Europe
Trends and opportunities across regions: Europe Monday, 6 June 2011 Head of Institutional Fixed Income Europe Three themes shaping global opportunities I. Long term: Spheres of influence are shifting among
More informationMoving On Up Today s Economic Environment
Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies November 8, 2018 PFM 1 U.S. ECONOMY Today s Agenda MONETARY POLICY GEOPOLITICAL
More informationMarkets Overview Pulse & Calendar Economic scenario
Historically, a rising rate environment in the US has been a matter of concern for developing economies It seems that this time is different: despite rising US yields, emerging market currencies have strengthened
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook
Global Investment Outlook Ewen Cameron Watt June 16 FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY - UKRSM-16 Asset performance YTD Sterling Returns Brent Crude Oil Gold German Bund ML Global High Yield JPM EMBI Emerging
More informationZenith Monthly Economic Report October 2011
Zenith Monthly Economic Report October 211 ECONOMIC STATISTICS SUMMARY Cash Rate Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Annual Growth (%) Country Latest Last Change Latest Change Latest Change Past
More informationNational Monetary Policy Forum. Chris Loewald, Head: Policy Development and Research 10 April 2016 Pretoria
National Monetary Policy Forum Chris Loewald, Head: Policy Development and Research 1 April 1 Pretoria In the April 17 MPR Executive summary & overview of the policy stance Overview of the world economy
More informationCapital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD
Capital Markets and Corporate Governance Service Line Capital Markets Practice, FPD Emerging Capital Markets Update for August 2011 All data are as of Wednesday, August 31, 2011. The regional indices are
More informationEconomic & Market Update. Matthew Drennan Executive General Manager, Zurich Investments
Economic & Market Update Matthew Drennan Executive General Manager, Zurich Investments General Advice Warning This information in this presentation is general in nature and does not take into account the
More information#MICEU #ValueInvesting Michael Krautzberger. Head of European Fixed Income, BlackRock
#MICEU #ValueInvesting #FixedIncome @BlackRock Michael Krautzberger Head of European Fixed Income, BlackRock New Age of Fixed Income Investing Michael Krautzberger, Head of Euro Fixed Income March 2016
More informationEuro-QE at the end of the road for now
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.8 2.6 2.1 3.21 1.17 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
More informationThe ECB's drive to build purchased assets
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.8 2.6 2. 3.1 1.11 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
More informationMonthly Market Update August 2016
Monthly Market Update August 2016 Steven Alexander, CTP, CGFO, CPPT, Managing Director D. Scott Stitcher, CFA, Director Richard Pengelly, CFA, CTP, Director Khalid Yasin, CHP, Senior Managing Consultant
More informationThe ECB's drive to build purchased assets
Germany France Italy Agencies Spain Netherlands Belgium Austria Portugal Finland Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Lux Latvia Lithuania Malta 7.6 2.5 1.9 2.86 1.11 Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment
More informationPortuguese Banking System: latest developments. 2 nd quarter 2017
Portuguese Banking System: latest developments nd quarter 17 Lisbon, 17 www.bportugal.pt Prepared with data available up to th September of 17. Portuguese Banking System: latest developments Banco de Portugal
More informationFINANCIAL FORECASTS ECONOMIC RESEARCH. January No. 1. What will be the characteristics of euro-zone financial markets in 2016?
ECONOMIC RESEARCH January - No. What will be the characteristics of euro-zone financial markets in? We believe investors will be faced with the following characteristics in euro-zone financial markets
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
More informationHSBC Portfolios - World Selection 1
HSBC Portfolios - World Selection 1 J Share Class AC 30 Jun 2018 AC 30/06/2018 Fund Objective and Strategy Investment Objective The Fund aims to provide long term total returns (meaning income and capital
More informationSEE macroeconomic outlook Recovery gains traction, fiscal discipline improving. Alen Kovac, Chief Economist EBC May 2016 Ljubljana
SEE macroeconomic outlook Recovery gains traction, fiscal discipline improving Alen Kovac, Chief Economist EBC May 216 Ljubljana Real economy highlights Recent GDP track record reveals more favorable footprint
More informationPricing for Protection Can Margin Expansion Offset Credit Risk
Pricing for Protection Can Margin Expansion Offset Credit Risk Mr. Marinos Yannopoulos, General Manager and Board Member GOLDMAN SACHS EUROPEAN FINANCIALS CONFERENCE FRANKFURT 4 June 2009 A strong franchise
More informationPortuguese Banking System: latest developments. 3 rd quarter 2017
Portuguese Banking System: latest developments 3 rd quarter 217 Lisbon, 218 www.bportugal.pt Prepared with data available up to 18 th December of 217 for macroeconomic and financial market indicators,
More informationRECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003
OCTOBER 23 RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO 2 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK MEDIUM-TERM CHALLENGES 3 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS In tandem with the global economic cycle, the Mexican
More informationOUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc.
OUTLOOK 2014/2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015 and our recommended asset
More informationQuarterly market summary
Quarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2016 Economic overview Economies around the world appear to be relatively resilient, with data signalling that in many countries, economic activities are expanding
More informationBoussard & Gavaudan Convertible A compartment of Boussard & Gavaudan SICAV
Boussard & Gavaudan Convertible A compartment of Boussard & Gavaudan SICAV UCITS by Boussard & Gavaudan Asset Management FEBRUARY 2018 NEWSLETTER * Share class NAV per Share Month to Date Performance Year
More informationMarkets Overview Pulse Economic scenario
TOTAL OUTPUT NEW ORDERS EMPLOYMENT DELIVERY TIMES STOCKS OF PURCHASES INPUT PRICES QUANTITY OF PURCHASES FINISHED GOODS NEW EXPORT ORDERS OUTPUT PRICES WORK BACKLOGS The Markit PMI for the manufacturing
More informationTwin Problems: Employment and Consumer Spending
Twin Problems: Employment and Consumer Spending September 1, 11 Asha G. Bangalore agb3@ntrs.com The elevated unemployment rate remains at the top of the Fed s worry list. Nearly as important is the recent
More informationEurozone Focus The Ongoing Saga Of Sovereign Debt
14 The Ongoing Saga Of Sovereign Debt Sovereign debt will continue to be the headline issue for the Eurozone. Whilst the discordant debate over Greece has certainly overshadowed concerns over Portugal,
More informationLatin America: the shadow of China
Latin America: the shadow of China Juan Ruiz BBVA Research Chief Economist for South America Latin America Outlook Second Quarter Madrid, 13 May Latin America Outlook / May Key messages 1 2 3 4 5 The global
More informationAsset Allocation Monthly
For professional investors Asset Allocation Monthly October 2015 Joost van Leenders, CFA Chief Economist, Multi Asset Solutions joost.vanleenders@bnpparibas.com +31 20 527 5126 Uncertainty about US monetary
More informationThe Financial Crisis of ? Gerald P. Dwyer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta University of Carlos III, Madrid
The Financial Crisis of 2007-201? Gerald P. Dwyer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta University of Carlos III, Madrid Disclaimer These views are mine and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank
More informationOvercoming the crisis
Princeton, Oct 24 th, 2011 Overcoming the crisis backwards induction approach: 1. Diagnosis how did we get there? Run-up phase Crisis phase 2. Give long-run perspective Banking landscape (ESBies, European
More informationSovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers
Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers International Monetary Fund October 21 Roadmap What is the Outlook for Global Financial Stability? Sovereign Risks and Financial Fragilities Sovereign and Banking
More informationWeekly Market View What happens when the Fed raises rates?
Weekly Market View What happens when the Fed raises rates? 4 December 2015 This commentary reflects the views of the Wealth Management Group of Standard Chartered Bank. Important disclosures can be found
More informationMULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2
10 2 3 6 8 9 13 14 MULTI-ASSET CLASS 1 EQUITIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 1 EQUITY EMERGING COUNTRIES 2 Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous Alpha Current Previous weight weight weight weight weight
More informationNon-standard monetary policy in the euro area Economics Roundtable discussion (8 September 2017)
Non-standard monetary policy in the euro area Economics Roundtable discussion (8 September 2017) Gillian Phelan Outline Monetary policy action Interest rate policy Non-standard measures Monetary policy
More informationNavigating the storm Investing in ideas to aid diversification
Navigating the storm Investing in ideas to aid diversification April 2017 Richard Batty Fund Manager, Multi Asset This presentation is for Professional Clients only and is not for consumer use. Please
More information> Macro Investment Outlook
> Macro Investment Outlook Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist October 214 The challenge for investors how to find better yield and returns as bank deposit rates stay low 9
More information