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1 Public Disclosure Authorized IEG 1. Project Data : ICR Review Independent Evaluation Group Date Posted : 07/09/2014 Report Number : ICRR14377 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Country: Brazil Is this Review for a Programmatic Series? Series ID : First Project ID : P Appraisal Actual Project Name : Rio de Janeiro Project Costs (US$M US$M): Metropolitan Urban And Housing Development L/C Number: Loan/Credit (US$M US$M): Sector Board : Urban Development Cofinancing (US$M US$M): Cofinanciers : Board Approval Date : 03/15/2011 Closing Date : 12/31/ /31/2012 Sector(s): Sub-national government administration (38%); General water sanitation and flood protection sector (19%); Other social services (19%); Urban Transport (12%); Housing construction (12%) Theme(s): Environmental policies and institutions (25%); Urban planning and housing policy (25%); Urban services and housing for the poor (25%); Natural disaster management (13%); Personal and property rights (12%) Evaluator : Panel Reviewer : ICR Review Coordinator : Group: Roy Gilbert Alain A. Barbu Christopher David Nelson IEGPS1 2. Project Objectives and Components: a. Objectives: 'To support the state government of Rio de Janeiro to strengthen its policies for planning and managing territorial growth in the Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Region, promoting the provision of affordable housing, and creating integrated social development programs targeted at the urban poor." (Program Document - PD p. ii) b. If this is a single DPL operation (not part of a series), were the project objectives/ key associated outcome targets revised during implementation? No c. Policy Areas: The DPL (development policy loan) had three policy areas: 1. Strengthen planning and management of livable and sustainable urban growth in the RJ metropolitan region; including (i) metropolitan management, with state-level leadership; medium-term metropolitan strategy for Rio de Janeiro's (RJ) State's development plan, strengthening existing metropolitan institutions. and integrating tariffs for intercity transportation; (ii) managing the urban environment, strengthening of state environmental agency INEA (Instituto Estadual de Ambiente), protecting RJ State's environmental assets such as the Guandu River basin; (iii) disaster risk management, establishing a disaster risk program to fund municipalities, identification of geological and hydrological risk and improve information systems; more effective early warning system an contingency plans. develop a RJ State disaster risk management policy with clear responsibilities for different state agencies.. 2. Promote the provision of affordable housing with reasonable access and quality : including (i) implementation of effective private sector participation in low -income housing; (ii) collaborating with municipalities in the RJ Yes No

2 3. metropolitan region to meet housing demand of households with incomes in the 0-3 minimum wages range; (iii) improving governance of the RJ State Housing Fund; (iv) better management of common areas in existing housing complexes. Support for the implementation of a targeted, comprehensive social development program for the urban poor; including (i) launching of UPP (Unidade de policia pacificadora - pacification police unit) social programs following favela pacification by the police; (ii) restructuring the RJ State Secretariat of Social Assistance and Human Rights SEASDH (Secretaria Estadual de Assistência Social e Direitos Humanos) ; (iii) establishing strong planning and M&E (monitoring and evaluation) systems. d. Comments on Project Cost, Financing, Borrower Contribution, and Dates: This was a two-tranche DPL, with each tranche released on its expected date : the first of US$290 million in September 2011 and the second of US$195 million in December The planned timing and conditions of tranche releases raise concerns about their role in project design that discussed further in Section 3 and 8 of this review. 3. Relevance of Objectives & Design: a. Relevance of Objectives: - rated High 1. Strengthening planning and management of urban growth in the metropolitan region remains central and highly relevant to RJ State's Development Plan, that highlights the importance of a well functioning metropolitan region for Rio de Janeiro's development, with emphasis on information technology and people management. Stronger planning and management of urban growth in the RJ metropolitan region is highly relevant to the Plan's aim to create an environment conducive to private sector investment Because of their focus at national level the Bank's Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) at the time of appraisal and the current CPS do not explicitly address the priorities of one specific metropolitan region, of Rio de Janeiro in this case. 2. Promoting the provision of quality affordable housing with access to infrastructure and services is highly relevant to RJ State's Development Plan, and its aim to reduce housing deficits (p. 36), currently exceeding more than half a million housing units. It was also relevant to the Bank's CPS at the time of appraisal and remains relevant to the current CPS where housing is highlighted as a key sector for the Bank to support. 3. Supporting the implementation of a targeted and comprehensive social development program for the poor is substantially relevant to the RJ State's Development Plan, that calls for vocational training for and inclusion of RJ State's poor (p. 78). It was also relevant to the Bank's CPS at the time of appraisal and remains relevant to the current CPS and its emphasis upon working with subnational governments in Brazil in improving public service provision for low -income households as one of its strategic objectives. b. Relevance of Design: - rated Modest : The present DPL reviewed here is part of a substantial long -term collaboration between the Bank and the State of Rio de Janeiro, that currently includes two more DPLs : (i) a single tranche Fiscal Efficiency for Quality in Public Service Delivery for US$300 million (P in 2012); and (ii) a single tranche Enhancing Public Management for Service Delivery for US$500 million (P in 2013), The present DPL followed a previous (2010) US485 million single tranche Fiscal Sustainability, Human Development And Competitiveness DPL in Rio de Janeiro (P117244), rated with a Satisfactory outcome by IEG. In accordance with the Bank's earlier operations policy, the DPL operation reviewed here was designed to be closely linked to a parallel Technical Assistance Loan (TAL). Owing to the protracted and complex multi-sector preparation effort involved, however (ICR p. 5), the TAL was not prepared in time to be implemented together with its partner DPL. Updated comments from the Region informed IEG that the US$48 million Rio de Janeiro Strengthening Public Management and Integrated Territorial Development TAL (P126735), appraised in November 2013, had been made effective in June A stand-alone TAL such as this operation now is, is in accordance with the more recent (October 2011) Bank "road map" for processing such self-standing, "discrete" TALs. The relevance of actions and chosen indicators (from Policy Matrix PD Annex 2 pp ) under each of the operation's three policy areas for achieving the DPL objective is assessed as follows : 1. Strengthen planning and management of urban growth in the metropolitan region (i) stronger and more effective metropolitan management, led by the state, would be a main tool for improving planning and management of economic and demographic growth across the metropolitan region. Given the multiplicity of

3 2. municipalities involved beyond the Municipality of Rio de Janeiro by itself, RJ State is an essential player in this process; (ii) managing the urban environment and strengthening of RJ State environmental agency INEA are also essential elements of better metropolitan planning and management, but they are not sufficient by themselves as they only cover one segment, namely the environment, of the many that metropolitan planning has to address. Later comments from the Region cited the DPL's support for RJ's State's development plant as evidence of the operation's broader coverage beyond just the environment ; (iii) highlighting disaster risk management through the establishment of a disaster risk program to fund municipalities and other mitigation activities is highly relevant to achieving better metropolitan management. Disaster risk affects nearly all sectors covered by the metropolitan plan. Failure to take that into account could undermine the results of metropolitan planning and management. chosen indicators : (1) Metropolitan-wide plans for RJ metropolitan region (RMRJ) in effect (Baseline = 0 in 2009, goal= 3 in 2012) - highly relevant to achieving better coordination across the 18 municipalities that make up the RMRJ. (2) Change in formatting of the RJ State Multi-year Plan PPA (Plano Plurianual) taking into account the Integrated Program for RMRJ. (Baseline = No in 2009, goal in December 2012 = Yes) - not clear how a change is formatting of a plan by itself would help achieve stronger metropolitan planning and management. The change in formatting did include spatial reference to geographical areas for the first time, increasing its relevance. (3) Number of passengers using public transport smart-cards with integrated fares - (Baseline = 0 in December 2009, goal in December 2012 = 550,000) - relevant to allowing the geographical ext ension of urban growth into the peripheral areas of the metropolitan region for poor travellers especially through the disconnect between the fare paid and the distance travelled and necessary modal changes. This, in itself, is not a guarantee that planning and management will be strengthened, however. (4) Increase INEA s direct annual investment budget (through RJ State Environmental Funds: FECAM (Fundo Estadual de Conservação Ambiental), FUNBIO (Fundo Brasileira para a Biodiversidade), FUNDHRI (Fundo Estadual de Recursos Hidricos), excluding operational cost (Baseline= R$64 million in 2009, R$170 million is goal in 2012) would be relevant to strengthening metropolitan planning and management if it had been demonstrated that INEA was a more efficient user of budget resources than other departments or agencies of the RJ State government. (5) INEA has increased percent of watershed management organizations fully operationalized by contracting an Executive Branch (delegataria) (Baseline = 75% in 2010, goal in 2012 is 100%) - relevant to strengthening metropolitan management by making it more participatory. (6) State level geological landslide susceptibility map covering at least 75% of the municipalities in the RMRJ: (Baseline in 2009 =10%; Goal in 2012 = 75%) highly relevant to better informed metropolitan planning. (7) Identification of exposure to landslide risk in 10 prioritized areas (Baseline in 2009 = 0; Goal in 2012 = 10 high landslide risk prioritized areas) only modestly relevant given the very small scale of the intended achievement against the much larger scale of this challenge throughout the RMR J. According to the Region "areas' in this case denoted the 19 municipalities of the RJ metropolitan region, 10 of which were covered by the project. A stronger case for relevance could have been made if the indicator had specifically referred to municipalities and not ambiguously to areas. (8) Population benefiting from real time alarm system (Baseline in 2010 = 2.9 million people, Goal = 4.9 million people in 2012) - a relevant indicator, but it would have been more so had it also tracked two more things : (i) the percentage of all people at risk who would benefit from a real time alarm system; and (ii) the total number of alarm systems and the percentage of them proven to be operational at all times through continuous and regular testing. Promote the provision of quality affordable housing with access to infrastructure and services : i) private sector participation directly contributes to housing provision by adding to the public sector supply that, alone, is not enough to meet demand; (ii) while municipalities may contribute little to the direct supply of housing, constructively collaborating with them is a necessary condition lest they create obstacles to the affordable housing developments through restrictions on land use and /or withholding building or occupation permits; (iii) improving governance of the RJ State Housing Fund is only modestly relevant to achieving the DPL objective, as most funding for affordable housing in Brazil, including the RJ metropolitan region, comes from the federal level through the Minha Casa Minha Vida (My House My Life) federal program; (iv) the better management of common areas in existing housing complexes is necessary for improving the housing services they provide to their occupants, but makes no direct difference to the provision of additional affordable housing that the DPL sought to encourage. Even though the additional qualifier to housing provision was not explicitly articulated by the text of the DPL indicators, this review understands that "housing provision" means "additional housing provision" since more housing would be needed to overcome the housing deficits appropriately diagnosed by the appraisal of this DPL (PD p. 16). chosen indicators : (1) Social rental program budgeted and, where applicable, disbursed within 30 days of disaster occurrence - relevant to strengthening the management of disaster response. (2) Signature of 5 donation contracts of state owned land to the federal FAR /CAIXA (Fundo de Arrendamento Residencial/Caixa Economica Federal), benefiting approximately a total of 5,000 families - relevant to promoting affordable housing provision by helping overcome the constraints of land availability for such housing developments. (3) Implementation of at least one model of residents ownership in social housing at the Complexo Batan (15,000 residents). (Baseline = 0, Goal = 1) - modestly relevant only insofar as it is used as a demonstration experience with mechanisms to apply its learning to a broader program. (4) Increase of land titling program for slum dwellers (Baseline in 2009 =1,500 titles released, goals for 2012 = 10,000 titles) - relevant for regularizing metropolitan management interface with a large segment of the lower income

4 3. population, although not directly linked to the objective of the provision of quality affordable housing. (5) Number of feasibility studies for identification of adequate areas to implement large scale developments for low -income housing (Baseline = 0 in 2009, Goal = 3 (one per growth pole)) - relevant for helping ensure that such developments are properly planned, reducing the risk of problems arising later. (6) Develop an integrated housing development model for about 10 to 15 thousand families, Baseline = No, Goal in 2012 = Yes) - relevant to making management response at the metropolitan level more efficient. (7) Issuing a public recruitment announcement to hire at least 20% more technical staff for RJ State ITERJ (Instituto de Terras e Cartografia do Estado do Rio de Janeiro) (Baseline to be established by second ISR ) - improving the quality of technical staffing of agencies in the metropolitan region is highly relevant to strengthening metropolitan management, although its specific relevance to housing provision under this DPL is unclear. Support the implementation of a targeted and comprehensive social development program for the urban poor : (i) launching social pacification actions in UPP favelas would be front line implementation, albeit for only a small section of the urban poor; (ii) to the extent that SEASDH is responsible for implementing the overall social program, restructuring SEASDH could be relevant; (iii) new M&E systems are necessary to ensure that there is proper follow-up of progress in implementing the overall social program. chosen indicators : (1) Number of favela territories benefiting from the UPP social programs (Baseline in 2009 = zero, Goal in December 2012 =20) - on too small a scale to be more than modestly relevant to implementing a program for the poor in RJ metropolitan region. in comprehensive way as the DPL intended at the level of the RJ metropolitan region. The primary objective of UPP is to improve security, not to assist the poor. (2) Approval of new organization chart of Secretariat of Social Assistance (SEASDH) by Dec in itself, this may have almost negligible relevance to achieving the DPL objective. This does not deny that the DPL action might have been highly relevant for SEASDH, but that is not the benchmark for assessing this operation's design relevance. (3) Number of social development programs with M&E system established (Baseline in 2009 = zero; Goal in 2012 = 15) - the indicator itself would be relevant, but with a target of 100% of all programs. Zero tolerance of programs without M&E could be demonstrated by closing down programs that fail to adopt them. 4. The relevance of the tranche release conditions, that IEG regards as a critical design feature for helping this two-tranche operation achieve its objectives, is assessed here as follows : IEG notes that tranche releases depend upon the fulfilment of conditions explicitly established at the design stage of a DPL (details in the case of this operation: LA Schedule 1, Section I-B and Section II-D pp. 8-10). The date of the actual release depends on the fulfilment of these conditions, and is not pre -set by the design itself. Even before consideration of these conditions, there is another crucial design decision involving DPL tranches, namely whether the DPL should be single- or multi-tranche. This DPL opted for a two-tranche design, an "exemplary" design in the opinion of later comments received from the Region --even though all the other DPLs supporting RJ State were single tranche. In the case of the DPL reviewed here, less than twelve months after the Bank had demonstrated its satisfaction with progress by accepting that second tranche conditions had been met, the Bank downgraded the operation's performance ratings. Thus fully meeting the second tranche conditions had not assured a satisfactory performance shortly afterwards, or helped sustain a satisfactory outcome to this operation. Since the ICR points to only one condition having been subsequently reversed, namely the SEASDH restructuring, it raises concerns about the project design where tranche release conditions and their likely timing were not perfectly calibrated with stimulating the achievement of a strong project performance--that, instead, weakened. Perhaps the release conditions were too easily met by administrative adjustments that take only small steps toward the intended DPL outcomes. IEG notes that, for this operation, the second tranche conditions did not always build upon the first's. Under Policy Area 1, Strengthening Management and Planning, for instance, there was only one release condition for the second tranche, against five for the first. The design for Policy Area 2, provision of affordable housing, would have been more relevant had the second tranche release conditions built on the first's by requiring RJ State to continue to sign up more municipalities to housing programs. This would take the DPL beyond the token first municipality sign up required for the release of the first tranche. For IEG, the fact that all the DPL's second tranche conditions were fulfilled to the satisfaction of the Bank and yet, shortly thereafter, the Bank reported weaker project performance point to shortcomings of the project design that undermined its relevance. 4. Achievement of Objectives (Efficacy): Strengthening the planning and management of urban growth in the metropolitan region - rated Modest, of the three the most relevant objectives whose achievement was supported by the DPL's most relevant policy areas and indicators, was modestly achieved with mixed results. Outputs consistent with this performance included : (i) the RJ State Multi-year Development Plan with geographical delimitations of its actions for the first time; (ii) only one of the three RJ State plans intended to have a metropolitan dimension has been implemented; (iii) integrating public transport fares across the metropolitan region, not by itself strengthening metropolitan planning and management, but extending the range of both by including more people within the scope of each one ; the integration of fares provides transit planners with detailed information on system use to help better manage transport policy. (iv) INEA's investment capability was enhanced after revenues from pollution fines were earmarked to its own budget,

5 but that is not a sufficient condition for strengthening the agency and metropolitan management more generally; (v) evidence of more rigorous environmental licensing is weak as it based upon a "strengthened" legal framework and procedures; more convincing evidence would include reports of the changing numbers of licenses requested and approved, and the changing total value of the operations covered by the licenses, as well as the number of operations still going ahead without proper licensing; (vi) since 2009, eight decentralized water management organizations have been established and become operational ; (vii) for better disaster risk management, a RJ State flood alert system currently serves 5 million people, although, as the Region acknowledges, little is reported about the nature of the operation and use of the system in real time as intended, or about why other disaster risks--landslides in particular-- were not covered, as envisaged by the original design of the DPL; plans are under way to extend the coverage to landslides; (viii) the landslide susceptibility maps developed for 17 of the 19 municipalities in the Rio metropolitan region--are apparently not connected with the real time alarm system just mentioned; (viii) a small-scale social rental program providing R$306 (US$139) emergency funding to each of 167,562 beneficiaries during 2012; aimed at disaster affected people; RJ budget allocations for this increased from R$44.2 million in 2011 to R$61.6 million in Promoting the provision of quality affordable housing with access to infrastructure and services - rated Negligible : a relevant objective but one that was not supported by a relevant project design, obtained only negligible results : Outputs consistent with this performance include; (ii) land donations by RJ State to the federal Minha Casa Minha Vida (My House My Life) program that included three land tracts fell short of the five expected; (iii) actual implementation of the proposed model Complexo Batan--admittedly of low relevance--proved to be impossible owing to insecurity at the site; (iv) 10,238 land titles were awarded to slum dwellers, meeting the appraisal target of 10,000, an important result, but as noted above, not directly related to quality affordable housing provision of the DPL objective that was not limited to the legalization of existing housing only, although in later comments, however, the Region considers the legalization of land tenure regularization to be part of housing provision. Since the housing to be legalized already exists, the legalization process by itself does not incur the provision of more housing than existed before. IEG recognizes the importance of regular tenure as an essential feature to help ensure the quality of affordable housing, but not as an instrument for its provision; (v) the intended housing feasibility studies have not been completed; (vi) the intended integrated housing development model has not been developed; (vii) the ICR reports staffing improvements to ITERJ as intended, but the relevance of this achievement to promoting housing provision appears weak, as the ICR acknowledges (ICR p. 11). Supporting the implementation of a targeted and comprehensive social development program for the poor - rated Modest, a substantially relevant objective that did not benefit from a relevant project design, so that efficacy was only modest. Outputs consistent with this performance included : (i) while the ICR informs (ICR p. 12) that UPP social programs have been implemented in 17 of 24 favelas in the municipality of Rio, it recognizes the difficulty of attributing the security and social improvements reported --without specific supporting evidence --to these programs; (ii) the restructuring of SEASDH was attempted but a key element of it, the agreed merit based recruitment of 95 technical staff could not go ahead after it was challenged on technical grounds; meanwhile the relevance of changes in this agency to the DPL objective, since it is now negligible after SEASDH's responsibilities for the UPP social program have now been transferred to the municipal level; an M&E unit has been formally established within each of the 12 social programs still under SEASDH (against an appraisal target of 15). 5. Efficiency (not applicable to DPLs): 6. Outcome: The DPL objectives were highly relevant, while the DPL design was modestly relevant. Together with modest efficacy, this indicates that the DPL achieved its objectives but with significant shortcomings. a. Outcome Rating : Moderately Unsatisfactory 7. Rationale for Risk to Development Outcome Rating: Rated overall; Moderate For some outcomes, notably those associated with the continuing resilience of the strengthening of metropolitan planning and management, the risk is moderate. Institutions are in place in RMRJ to ensure the continued attention to the improvements sought by the DPL. Environmental and disaster risk management issues are real and well understood by the RJ State and municipalities within the RJ metropolitan region to ensure that they will always be on the agenda. For promoting the provision of quality affordable housing, the risk is low, not because of the DPL intervention itself, but because of the solid commitment and financing of Brazil's federal programs in this direction, notably the Minha Casa MInha Vida (My House My Life) program. For supporting the implementation of a social program for the poor is high, because of the shift of responsibilities to the 19 metropolitan municipalities, some without a proven track record in this area.

6 a. Risk to Development Outcome Rating : Moderate 8. Assessment of Bank Performance: a. Quality at entry: The chosen project objectives were well focused upon local priorities and those of the Bank too. This initial strength of the project design was not always matched, however, by the choice of actions and indicators that would help achieve and monitor the intended outcomes. Some selected actions, such as land titling in favelas, important in itself, were not related to the project's intent of promoting the provision of quality affordable housing (discussed in more detail in Section 4 of this ICR Review). Similarly, the linkages between providing integrated public transport fares and strengthened metropolitan management and planning are not evident. Others were on a disparate scale from that of the intended results, such as a single model housing development, and sporadic land donations by RJ State for affordable housing development for achieving quality affordable housing delivery at the state level. Important actions and indicators, however, were more relevant to the project, including metropolitan-wide planning, landslide susceptibility mapping, broadening coverage of real time alarm systems for natural disasters, On the other hand, as the ICR correctly noted (ICR p. 16) may have over-estimated the capabilities of chosen RJ State entities to deliver the anticipated results. In hindsight, the sharp weakening in project performance reported by the Bank shortly after the approval of the DPL's second tranche points to the release conditions that were not calibrated with the achievement of the DPL objectives (discussed in more detail in Section 3b of this ICR Review). This may be explained, in part, by the very few first tranche conditions that were followed up by those of the second tranche, a design weakness that is the Bank's responsibility; Later comments by the Region acknowledged that the Bank team appeared to have underestimated the implementation risks associated with the program, including demands it placed on the RJ State authorities in terms of coordination and political support over a diverse policy agenda. Quality-at at-entry Rating : Moderately Unsatisfactory b. Quality of supervision: Altogether, four supervision missions were fielded by the Bank over a two year period. The ICR notes that the missions were well staffed with experts in the diverse fields covered by the operations, with ten different Bank sector specialists involved at one time or another. The first and second supervision mission implementation status and results reports (ISRs - June 2011 and February 2012) rated the DPL program performance as fully Satisfactory both for achieving the development outcome (DO) and for implementation progress (IP). Presumably on the basis of Bank satisfaction with the program being carried out by the borrower, a standard Bank requirement for tranche releases for all DPLs, the first tranche of this DPL was released on September 9, 2011 and the second tranche 101 days later on December 19, According to the February 2012 ISR, all tranche release conditions specified in the LA had been satisfactorily met. The third supervision mission ISR (November 2012) downgraded the performance rating for both DO and IP to Moderately Satisfactory noting that "areas offering the most concerns were affordable housing and integrated social programs ". The fourth (and last) supervision mission ISR (February 2013) downgraded both the DO and IP ratings further to Moderately Unsatisfactory, the reason being that six indicators, mostly related to affordable housing and social development, of the DPL's total of 18 had not been met. While the last two supervision missions were correct in drawing attention to the shortcomings of the project's achievements, this assessment stands in contrast to the Bank being fully satisfied with the fulfilment of the second tranche release conditions --marking that the project was on track in the eyes of the Bank--just twelve months earlier. Later comments from the Region attributed the drop in performance assessment to (unspecified) external factors and to the absence of the TAL whose implementation was originally intended to accompany that of the DPL. Quality of Supervision Rating : Moderately Satisfactory Overall Bank Performance Rating : Moderately Unsatisfactory 9. Assessment of Borrower Performance: a. Government Performance:

7 In this case, "Government" means the RJ State Government. The ICR reports that the DPL received a significant level of support from the RJ State authorities. During implementation, however, it proved challenging to align the DPL priorities with those of the State in the many areas that were affected. The RJ State government's decision to transfer key social responsibilities for social planning away from SEASDH, a RJ State agency to local municipalities undermined the contribution that it could have made to the DPL objective in this area. The limited success in these areas was attributed by the Region to the limited capacity some RJ State agencies--something that the delayed TAL would have addressed --rather than a misalignment of priorities. Government Performance Rating : Moderately Unsatisfactory b. Implementing Agency Performance: Performance among the different agencies responsible for delivering the outputs agreed under the DPL was mixed. Valuable local oversight and coordination was provided by the RJ State Secretariats of Finance SEFAZ (Secretaria Estadual de Fazenda) and of Works SEOBRAS (Secretaria Estadual de Obras). The ICR reports that strong performances came from INEA, ITERJ and DRM-RJ (Departamento de Recursos Minerais do RJ), in pursuing their expected actions under the loan. On the other hand SEASDH's and the SEH's (Secretaria de Estado de Habitação) performance was weaker than expected, effectively stalling progress toward achieving the objectives in their respective areas. In identifying shortcomings in Borrower Performance under this DPL, it is important to bear in mind that a proposed technical assistance package of US$ 48 million in support of this DPL, of the type usually provided for most sectoral DPLs financed by the Bank, did not materialize. The ICR attributes this failure to the preparation taking longer than expected and to the "innate complexity" of technical assistance loans (ICR p, 5) Implementing Agency Performance Rating : Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Borrower Performance Rating : Moderately Unsatisfactory 10. M&E Design, Implementation, & Utilization: a. M&E Design: The M&E design was built around 18 straightforward and measurable performance indicators. The principal weakness was that several of these indicators, as noted in the assessment of the relevance of design of this review (Section 3b), were not directly related to the objective whose achievement they portended to measure. This review did not find evidence to support the ICR statement that all indicators were "clearly linked to the policies" of the DPL (ICR p. 5). IEG agrees with the ICR that there may have been too many indicators. Their number could have been reduced by including only the 8-10 most relevant ones. For most of the original 18, however, care was taken to ensure that they had meaningful baseline and target values to facilitate their monitoring and evaluation. b. M&E Implementation: SEOBRAS was responsible for overseeing the collection of M&E data by the implementing agencies. The ICR does not provide details of how well this was done, or even if done at all. In fact, the ICR discussion of M&E implementation is mostly devoted to Bank supervision, leaving project M&E uncovered. RJ State produced completion report summarizing the achievements of the DPL Relatorio de Conclusao, Programa de Habitacao e Desenvolvimiento Urbano Metropolitano Sustentavel, PROHDUMS -DPL II, January 31, that provides substantial detail on results and indicates the comprehensive and up -to-date monitoring system that was in place for the DPL. c. M&E Utilization: While itself not providing specific information in support of this, the ICR notes that implementing agencies reported that the M&E fostered the exchange of information across and within agencies. The ICR does not explicitly describe or assess how the project M&E was utilized or even whether it was utilized at all M&E Quality Rating : Modest

8 11. Other Issues a. Safeguards: Under its Policy Area 1, namely to strengthen planning and management of livable and sustainable urban growth in the RJ metropolitan region, the DPL did focus on actions specifically aimed at improving the management of the urban environment and protecting RJ State's environmental assets. Results noted by the ICR in these areas include the enhanced investment capacity of RJ State's environmental agency INEA and a "strengthened" legal framework and procedures. This review noted the absence of evidence of stronger environmental management such as the reduction in the number of unlicensed investment operations in RJ State. The ICR does not, however, refer to the Bank safeguard policies on the environment (OP Environmental Assessment; OP Environmental Action Plans; OP Natural Habitats) or assess whether this operation, thorough these or other actions, was in compliance with the safeguard policies noted here. b. Fiduciary Compliance: The only fiduciary arrangements in place for this operation were that the Loan proceeds were deposited into an account of the Central Bank and then transferred to RJ State's Single Treasury Account to be used to fund eligible expenditures (PD p. 65), defined as any in support of the Program (LA p. 17). The ICR does not report any issues of non-compliance. c. Unintended Impacts (positive or negative): The ICR reports two: (i) the replication with Bank assistance of RJ State's approach to disaster risk management to other states in Brazil; and (ii) engaging federal authorities to define a national standard for radar equipment to be used for early warning systems, as the first step toward developing a federal radar network. d. Other: 12. Ratings: ICR IEG Review Outcome: Moderately Moderately Unsatisfactory Unsatisfactory Risk to Development Moderate Moderate Outcome:. Reason for Disagreement /Comments Bank Performance : Moderately Satisfactory Borrower Performance : Moderately Unsatisfactory Quality of ICR : Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Satisfactory Weaknesses in project design, particularly in relation to second tranche release condition. Over-estimating the capacity of RJ State agencies to implement the project.. NOTES: - When insufficient information is provided by the Bank for IEG to arrive at a clear rating, IEG will downgrade the relevant ratings as warranted beginning July 1, The "Reason for Disagreement/Comments" column could cross-reference other sections of the ICR Review, as appropriate. 13. Lessons: from the ICR: Natural disaster events can be catalysts for positive change. Although not dealing exclusively with natural disasters, tragic flooding and landslide events in the highlands north of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, two months before the approval of this project, kept attention focused upon actions that reduced disaster risk as well as advancing their respective sectors.

9 While commitment within individual agencies is a necessary condition for successful institutional development, so too is political leadership from top government authorities. Strong leadership from top RJ State authorities would have been required to effectively align priorities within the government with the goals set for the operation. However, other political economy determinants, such as national elections, at times took priority, compromising the cohesive delivery of the actions supported under the operation. Ensuring that tranche release conditions that have been met are not reversed later poses a difficult challenge for a DPL. In the case of this operation, a decree authorizing the competitive recruitment of staff for SEASDH was accepted as evidence of progress toward restructuring the agency. The later annulment of the recruitment process (on technical grounds) after most hiring had been completed could not have been anticipated.. Engaging multiple agencies with uneven institutional capacity presents a clear challenge. While the nature of some operations, such as regional development interventions, require engaging with multiple government agencies, the implementation experience of this operation illustrates the difficulties of working with agencies that present uneven levels of institutional maturity, technical competency, and leadership. Metropolitan development operations require working with municipal, as well as federal entities and programs, additional layers that must be factored into project design. adding further complexity. Key policy actions under this DPL were linked to federal programs, ranging from federal housing programs to the favela pacification programs. This articulation with federal programs had both positive and negative implications. On the positive side, it helped created positive synergies between this DPL and federal programs, including building a critical mass of financial incentives in support of a consistent set of policy initiatives, which, in turn, prevented the RJ State from spreading even further its already limited institutional capacity. On the negative side, it resulted in some policy outcomes being outside the RJ State government's direct sphere of influence, limiting the operation s overall effectiveness. Working with municipalities in such type of operation does not mean that conditions linked to municipal performance beyond the state s span of control should be included in the project design. from IEG: To be relevant, the design of a DPL, especially through the policy areas and performance indicators that it chooses should be firmly embedded into a explicit results framework. This framework should justify the linkages between progress measured by the indicators and the achievement of the objectives. A multi-tranche DPL policy design should ensure that the timing and conditions of tranche releases should be calibrated with the achievement of the operation's objectives. Shortly after this DPL's first tranche was released, the second tranche conditions were fully met, but shortly thereafter project performance weakened and the DPL was unable to achieve a Satisfactory outcome. Policy actions chosen for support and/or attention by a DPL should be on the same scale as the intended results of the operation. In this DPL, for instance, an action such as upgrading a single existing housing scheme could not be expected to contribute significantly to the DPL objective of promoting the provision of affordable housing on the scale needed at the level of the RJ metropolitan region. 14. Assessment Recommended? Yes No 15. Comments on Quality of ICR: The ICR provides a broad and informative coverage of all areas of action covered by the DPL. As a self-evaluation exercise, it is candid in recognizing the many shortcomings in the achievements of the operation. It does not address, however, the apparent contradictions of a two -tranche DPL failing to reach a Satisfactory outcome shortly after the Bank's confirmation that the second tranche conditions had been fully met --itself an indicator that the DPL should have been on track. The ICR would have constituted a more complete self -evaluation had it incorporated the findings of the excellent Borrower ICR, that was submitted to IEG later, together with the additional comments by the Region on this ICR Review. The Bank ICR is otherwise successful in assembling the necessary i nformation and data for the assessment, in a way that is consistent with the project design laid out at appraisal. a.quality of ICR Rating : Satisfactory

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