May 2017 MARKET insights
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- Rodney Davidson
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1 MARKET insights May s results were mixed, despite the headlines announcing frequent new highs. Tech stocks in the Nasdaq lead U.S. results, with a solid gain of +2.50%. The S&P 500 gained +1.16%, and the Dow managed a +0.33% rise. But the S&P Mid Cap 400 lost 0.64% and the Small Cap Russell 2000 sank 2.16%. Interna onal indices were quite strong, with Developed Markets (as defined by the MSCI Developed Market index) roaring ahead by +3.54% while Emerging Markets (as defined by the MSCI Emerging Market index) did almost as well with a robust gain of +2.85%. 1 Key Economic Sta s cs Period Level Vs. Prior Key Economic Sta s cs Period Level Vs. Prior Manufacturing Economy Strength May 54.9 Stronger Service Economy Strength May 56.9 Weaker Na onal Unemployment Rate May 4.3% Lower Personal Consump on Q1 2 nd 0.6% Higher Annual Infla on Rate (CPI ex. Food/Energy) Apr 1.9% Lower Annualized Quarterly GDP Growth Q1 2 nd 1.2% Higher Confidence among consumers fell last month for the second month in a row as Americans may have lowered their expecta ons going forward following the huge burst of op mism at the beginning of the year. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index retreated 1.5 points to in May. At the beginning of the year, consumer confidence hit its highest level in more than 16 years on hopes that the economy would get a jolt from the pro business Trump administra on. Expecta ons may be tempered as the biggest proposals by the White House replacing Obamacare, cu ng taxes, and increased spending on public works have so far languished in Congress. The lackluster confidence has not yet had an affect on the housing market as the ongoing increase in home prices picked up speed last month, accelera ng to its highest rate in nearly three years. The S&P/Case Shiller 20 city Q1 index rose 5.9%, compared to the same period last year. It was a ck higher than economists expected, and was the strongest year over year price gain since July Case Shiller noted in their release that even in the metro areas with the lowest annual apprecia on rates, prices s ll rose at about double the rate of infla on. 1 Consequently, homebuilders also remain op mis c as the Na onal Associa on of Homebuilders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) rose to pre recession levels. 1 NAHB Housing Market Index US Source: FactSet, Na onal Assoc. of Home Builders. As of May 23, Sharp Financial Services LLC is not a registered broker/dealer or registered investment advisory firm.
2 U.S. Economic Outlook Manufacturing in the New York area fell into nega ve territory this month for the first me this year according to the New York Fed. The Empire State Manufacturing survey retreated 6.2 points to 1 in May, far below March s reading of Readings below 0 indicate worsening condi ons. The figures suggest that factory ac vity may be leveling off. Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the index's decline was "disappoin ng, but not disastrous." "The big picture in the industrial economy remains one of gradual recovery in the wake of the gentle upturn in capital spending in the oil sector," he said. In contrast to the New York survey, manufacturing in the Mid Atlan c region showed unexpected strength, said the Philadelphia Fed. Their manufacturing index jumped 16.8 points in May to 38.8, well above economist forecasts of It marked the tenth month of posi ve readings for the index, where any posi ve reading indicates improving condi ons. The Federal Reserve said that na onally, industrial produc on rose 1% last month, its biggest gain since February In the details, factory produc on rose 1%, mine produc on added 1.2%, and u lity output increased 0.7%. 1 U.S. Intermediate Term Asset Class Rankings Above Average Major Asset Classes Rank as of April 30, 2017 Rank as of May 31, 2017 Technology 2 1 Nasdaq LargeCap Growth 4 3 Utilities 12 4 Developed Int l Markets 6 5 Consumer Cyclical 3 6 Emerging Markets 10 7 LargeCap Blend 15 8 Consumer Non Cyclical 16 9 Industrial 9 10 Dow Healthcare MidCap Growth 5 13 US Market Average Russell 3000 Index Below Average Source: W.E.S. & Co, LLC Real Estate CASH (1 3 mo T Bills) Basic Materials Financial LargeCap Value SmallCap Blend SmallCap Growth 7 21 MidCap Blend Telecom Energy MidCap Value SmallCap Value Last month online retailer Amazon closed above $1000 a share for the first me in its history as Americans become more accustomed to the convenience of shopping at home and having a package show up at their door two days later. Amidst this new shopping experience, brick andmortar store chains by the dozens have sunk into bankruptcy as consumers no longer walk their aisles. But from the wreckage of retail, one firm has emerged by managing to grow, not shrink, and prosper, not wilt: Dollar General. Dollar General has not only survived, but is also seeing amazing growth. According to Bank of America data, of the nearly 7,800 net new stores opened since 2008, a whopping 76%, or 5,936 were Dollar General stores! 1
3 Interna onal Economic News In North America, Canada recently reported the strongest GDP growth in the developed world with an annual rate of 3.7%. The main contribu ng factors were an increase in consumer spending, business investment, and the housing market. While GDP was solid, it s ll came in below expecta ons. The Interna onal Monetary Fund acknowledged Canada s momentum, but it also stated significant ongoing risks, such as the booming housing market and rising household debt. In Europe, the United Kingdom is now the worst performing advanced economy in the world with a mere 0.2% growth in the first quarter. Before the Brexit vote almost one year ago, the United Kingdom was outperforming Germany, Japan, and the United States. While markets quickly shrugged off the ini al shock following the Brexit vote, some warning signs have begun to appear. For example, infla on is up 2.7%, which is primarily due to a significant drop in the value of the pound which has raised the price of imports. The recent elec on in France put Emmanuel Macron in power at an ideal me when the economy turned upward again. The economy grew 0.4% and outperformed expecta ons while business ac vity in the private sector con nued to grow at its fastest pace in seven years. The strength in businesses is directly ed to an increase in consumer confidence, which is boas ng its highest level in a decade. In Asia, Japan s Nikkei index surpassed the 20,000 level for the first me in more than a year. Stronger economic growth and improved corporate profits in both Japan and the U.S. led the recent rally, but one of the concerns is how sustainable the rally is since company earnings have improved primarily due to tax cuts rather than bo om lines. Adding to the concerns is Japan s ultralow jobless rate at 2.8% in April, which is the lowest level since Employers are scrambling to find workers to fill posi ons as the labor market is the ghtest in decades. 1 The steady rise in global markets has come with rela vely low vola lity as investors take a wait and see approach. Domes cally vola lity is measured by the Chicago Board Op ons Exchange Vola lity Index (VIX), which is trending lower both in the U.S. markets and overseas. Vola lity Indexes At Or Near All Time Lows Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg data as of 5/11/2017.
4 Bond Markets Based on mostly posi ve macroeconomic data in the United States, Europe, and Japan, there is reason to remain op mis c towards certain fixed income sectors, par cularly in areas with less exposure to interest rate risk. Periodic vola lity may return as investors react to changes in the interest rate environment and growth friendly policies are implemented in Washington. The Fed could hike interest rates faster than the market expects and made it clear recently that two more hikes are likely this year. The Trump administra on s policies are also unlikely to affect the Fed s metable. Instead, stronger commodity prices is contribu ng to infla on in certain segments of the economy and could be a primary driver behind the Fed expedi ng its path toward interest rate normaliza on. According to the minutes of the Fed s latest mee ng, the poten al unwinding of its mul trillion dollar balance sheet may come sooner than later, which could impact stock markets more than interest rate normaliza on. President Trump will also have the opportunity to fill several vacancies at the Fed s board of governors over the next year. Market analysts will be watching President Trump s appointments closely as their views will likely either support the Fed s current plan or consider the Fed s balance sheet as government interference in the markets. 2 Source: 1) W.E.S. & Co. LLC Situa on Report, 5/19 6/2/17 2) Global refla on at a crossroads by D. William Kohli, Michael Salm, and Paul Scanlon, Putnam Investments Q ) Schwab Market Perspec ve: Unprecedented! Or Maybe Not? by Liz Ann Sonders, Brad Sorensen, Jeffrey Kleintop, 5/26/17
5 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DEFINITIONS: The views and opinions presented in this presenta on are those of Michael H. Sharp and not of H.D. Vest Financial Services or its subsidiaries. Nasdaq Composite Index is a market capitaliza on weighted index of the more than 3,000 common equi es listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is not possible to invest directly in an index Dow Jones Industrial Average is unmanaged and measures broad market performance. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Standard & Poor's is a corpora on that rates stocks and corporate and municipal bonds according to risk profiles. The S&P 500 is an index of 500 major, large cap U.S. corpora ons. You cannot invest directly in an index. Gross Domes c Product (GDP) is a quarterly report released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis that is an aggregate measure of total economic produc on for a country, represen ng the market value of all goods and services produced by the economy during the period measured, including personal consump on, government purchases, private inventories, paid in construc on costs and the foreign trade balance (exports are added, imports are subtracted). The Mortgage Banking Associa on (MBA) Purchase Index is a measure of loan applica on for home purchases and is adjusted for seasonality. The STOXX Europe 600 Index is an index that includes 600 components that represent large, mid and small capitaliza on companies across 8 countries of the European region, including Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index is an index comprised of approximately 6,000 publicly traded bonds including U.S. Government, mortgage backed, corporate and Yankee bonds with an average maturity of approximately 10 years. The index is weighted by the market value of the bonds included in the index. This index represents asset types, which are subject to risk, including loss of principal. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Interna onal developed companies measured by the MSCI EAFE Index which is an unmanaged market capitaliza on weighted index of equity securi es of companies domiciled in various countries. The Index is designed to represent the performance of developed stock markets outside the United States and Canada and excludes certain market segments unavailable to U.S. based investors. Emerging market companies measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index which is a free float adjusted market capitaliza on index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. Short term taxable bonds measured by the Barclays U.S. 1 3 Year Aggregate which is a subset of the Barclays U.S. Aggregate index, represen ng securi es with 1 to 3 years remaining un l maturity. Intermediate term bonds measured by the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond index which measures the performance of investment grade bonds in the U.S. fixed income universe. It includes U.S Treasury issues, agency issues, corporate bond issues and mortgage backed issues. It is unmanaged, includes reinvestment of dividends, does not reflect the impact of transac on, manager or performance fees and is unavailable for investment. High yield bonds measured by the Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index which tracks performance of domes c non investment grade corporate bonds. Interna onal government bonds measured by the Ci World Government Bond Index (WGBI) which measures the performance of 23 government bonds markets including Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the U.S. Short term municipals measured by the Barclays Municipal 1 3 Yr index which measures the performance of investment grade municipal securi es with 1 to 3 years remaining un l maturity. Intermediate term municipals measured by the Barclays Municipal Intermediate 5 10 Year index which measures the performance of investment grade municipal securi es with 5 to 10 years remaining un l maturity. High yield municipals measured by the Barclays High Yield Municipal index which measures the performance of below investment grade municipal securi es with at least 1 year remaining un l maturity. Commodi es measured by the Dow Jones UBS Commodity index which is comprised of future contracts on physical commodi es which trade here in the U.S. and certain foreign markets. It measures the performance of investment in a broad basket of commodity futures contracts. Real estate measured by the Dow Jones Global Select REIT index which represents equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) and REIT like securi es traded globally. Annualized Quarterly GDP (Gross Domes c Product) Growth measured by Bureau of Economic Analysis and is released as preliminary (1st es mate), revised (2nd es mate) and final over the course of a quarter. An investment cannot be made directly into an index. Investments are subject to market risks including the poten al loss of principal invested. Asset alloca on and diversifica on do not assure or guarantee be er performance and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. This report is not an offer to buy or sell or solicita on of an offer to buy or sell any securi es men oned or to follow a specific investment strategy. Sharp Financial Services LLC is not an registered broker/dealer or registered investment advisory firm.
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