Investing in a Volatile Market

Transcription

1 Investing in a Volatile Market

2 Agenda Today s market environment Is this time different? Learning from the past Gauging volatility Investing strategies in a volatile market Looking ahead

3 The Recent Exceptional Market Environment U.S. Stock Market: Decline and Recovery Source: Wealth Management Systems Inc.; based on the closing price of the S&P 500 index from September 1, 2007, through December 31, 2013.

4 Behind the Bear Bursting real estate bubble Subprime crisis Institutional bankruptcies and bailouts Economic slump Growing risk aversion of banks Changing consumer attitudes Changing demographics

5 Is This Time Different? Recent Bear 1970 s Bear 1930 s Bear Japan's "Lost Decade" 57% 48% 86% 80% 17 months 19 months 39 months 161 months Annualized Real GDP Growth -0.70% 1.5% -9.4% 1.5% Recession/Depression Duration 18 months 16 months 43 months Over 12 years Drop in Market Value (peak to trough) Duration Sources: Wealth Management Systems Inc.; Bureau of Economic Analysis; International Monetary Fund; Economic Planning Agency (Japan); National Bureau of Economic Research. GDP data is based on quarterly data for the most recent bear market and the 1970 s bear market; it is based on annual data otherwise. Periods of economic contraction do not exactly coincide with bear markets.

6 Learning From the Past: Bear Markets Since 1950 Source: Wealth Management Systems Inc. For the period from January 1, 1950, through December 31, Stocks are represented by the daily closing price of the Standard & Poor's 500. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. (CS000144)

7 Learning From the Past: Stock Markets and Economic Contractions Source: Wealth Management Systems Inc. For the period from January 1, 1950, through December 31, U.S. stocks are represented by Standard & Poor s Composite Index of 500 Stocks, an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Economic contractions are as defined by the National Bureau for Economic Research. (CS000228)

8 Learning From the Past: Conclusions Economic cycles don t tell the whole story. Every bear is unique. Fundamental investing concepts and strategies still apply.

9 Gauging Volatility: Standard Deviation S&P 500 Standard Deviation Source: Wealth Management Systems Inc. Represents the annualized monthly standard deviation of the total returns of the S&P 500 index for rolling 10-year periods from January 1959 to December Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

10 Gauging Volatility: VIX Volatility Index (VIX) Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange. For the period from January 1990 to December 2013.

11 Five Investing Strategies for a Volatile Market Don t Panic. Take Advantage of Asset Allocation. Diversify by Sector, Size, and Style. Keep a Long-Term Perspective. Consider Buying Opportunities.

12 Don t Panic Source: Wealth Management Systems Inc. This chart shows how a $10,000 investment would have been affected by missing the market's top-performing days over the 20-year period ended December 31, Stocks are represented by Standard & Poor s Composite Index of 500 Stocks, an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. (CS000076)

13 Take Advantage of Asset Allocation All Stock Portfolio 60% Stock Portfolio 40% Stock Portfolio Cash 10% Stocks 60% Stocks 100% Bonds 30% Cash 20% Stocks 40% Bonds 40% Total Return Risk* Total Return Risk* Total Return Risk* 1-year 32.39% 8.24% 17.81% 5.48% 11.17% 4.0% 5-year 17.94% 15.81% 12.23% 9.50% 9.08% 6.40% 10-year 7.40% 14.62% 6.25% 8.87% 5.39% 6.05% 20-year 9.22% 15.22% 7.86% 9.25% 6.89% 6.33% *Annualized monthly standard deviation. Sources: Wealth Management Systems Inc., Barclays Capital. For the periods ended December 31, Stocks represented by the S&P 500 index. Bonds represented by the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond index. Cash represented by the Barclays 3-Month Treasury-Bills index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

14 Diversify by Sector, Size, and Style Source: Standard & Poor s. Sector performance represented by the performance of the 10 GICS sectors within Standard & Poor's Composite Index of 500 Stocks. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. (CS000172)

15 Keep a Long-Term Perspective The Longer the Holding Period, the Lower the Variability in Returns Source: Wealth Management Systems Inc. For all indicated holding periods between January 1, 1926, and December 31, Domestic stocks are represented by the total returns of Standard & Poor's Composite Index of 500 Stocks, an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. (CS000070)

16 Consider Buying Opportunities Market Valuation Metrics in Selected Bull and Bear Markets Price/Earnings Ratio bull market peak (2000) bear market bottom (2002) bull market peak (2007) 21.0 Average bull market peak since Average bear market bottom since Average all markets since Source: Wealth Management Systems Inc. For the period from January 1, 1950, through December 31, Price/earnings ratios are based on 4-quarter trailing earnings. Average bull and bear market peak and bottom ratios based on final month average in cycle.

17 Special Considerations for Retirement Plan Assets Reallocate, don t cut. Never cut contributions below employer match. If employer cuts match, contributing still makes sense.

18 Looking Ahead Economy still recovering. Housing recovery continues. Finance reform legislation increased government oversight of financial markets. Other structural changes to markets and economy are likely. = Market volatility is likely to remain a given. 18

19 Forward, Not Back Steps to recovery in process Upside greater than downside Using time-proven investing strategies is the best way to deal with continued market volatility. 19

20 Questions?