International Bank for Reconstruction and Development 'AAA/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable

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1 Research Update: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development 'AAA/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Primary Credit Analyst: Elie Heriard Dubreuil, London (44) ; Secondary Credit Analyst, Sovereigns And International Public Finance: John B Chambers, CFA, New York (1) ; Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Related Criteria And Research Ratings List APRIL 28,

2 Research Update: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development 'AAA/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Overview We are affirming our long- and short-term issuer credit ratings on the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) at 'AAA/A-1+'. We assess IBRD's stand-alone credit profile at 'aaa'. IBRD incurred a $2 billion comprehensive loss during the first half of fiscal 2015, mainly driven by unrealized losses on non-trading portfolios. The bank nevertheless shows a steady allocable income. IBRD's Standard & Poor's risk-adjusted capital ratio (RAC), after adjustments, was 25% as of June We believe the ratio will continue to decrease due to the bank's loan portfolio growth, comprehensive losses, and the lowering of ratings on some borrowing member countries. This informs our revision of the financial profile to very strong versus extremely strong previously. The stable outlook reflects our view that IBRD's credit strengths, notably its extremely strong business profile, will remain in place. Rating Action On April 28, 2015, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its long- and shortterm issuer credit ratings on the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) at 'AAA/A-1+'. The outlook is stable. Rationale The ratings on IBRD reflect its extremely strong business profile and very strong financial profile. We therefore consider IBRD to have a 'aaa' stand-alone credit profile (SACP). Our extremely strong business profile assessment is based on IBRD's governance, role, and public-policy mandate. IBRD's unrivaled franchise value, the countercyclical nature of its lending, and the continuous commitment of its shareholders support our expectations that the bank will continue to benefit from preferred creditor treatment (PCT). IBRD is the keystone of the World Bank Group, which includes the International Development Association, International Finance Corporation (IFC), the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, and the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes. Commencing operations in 1946, IBRD is the world's oldest and largest multilateral lending institution (MLI). At fiscal year-end June 30, 2014 (fiscal 2014), it had 188 member countries, more than twice that of any other rated MLI except its affiliate, the IFC. IBRD had US$352 billion in total assets at year-end 2014, compared to $359 billion at fiscal-year-end June 2014, of which 45% was loans--the main activity of the bank. APRIL 28,

3 Disbursements increased by 17% to $18.8 billion during fiscal 2014, and decreased by 9% during the six months to Dec. 31, 2014 (the first half of fiscal 2015) compared to the same period last year. Net loan disbursements were partially offset by $4.2 billion in currency translation losses due to the euro depreciation against the dollar. In March 2014, the World Bank Group announced that it would provide up to $3.5 billion of new financing to Ukraine. Furthermore, loans to Argentina are still performing and we expect IBRD to commit between $1.0 billion and $1.2 billion per year to Argentina over the coming four years, under the recently concluded partnership framework. To support the larger anticipated disbursements and improve the bank s margin, IBRD s executive directors approved new measures during fiscal 2014 within a new financial sustainability framework. This framework entails, in particular, an increase in the Single Borrower Limit(SBL) and an extension of the maximum final maturity and average maturity for IBRD loans. The bank has also increased its maturity premium charges and introduced a 50 basis points (bps) yearly surcharge on loan exposures exceeding the previous SBL. It has reinstated a 25 bps commitment fee on the undisbursed balances on its loans. We note that IBRD has otherwise maintained undifferentiated loan pricing, consistent with its mandate. New loan commitments doubled during the first part of fiscal 2015 to $14.4 billion compared to the same period last year. The bank is being restructured, and we expect a few hundred departures as a result. Owing to the depth of the restructuring,the most important in the last two decades, significant tensions between some staff and management have emerged. We expect those to settle in the next few months as the bank completes its restructuring plans. Our assessment of IBRD's financial profile as very strong rests on our calculation of its RAC ratio of 30% before, and 25% after, adjustments for concentration risk and PCT, as well as the bank's funding and liquidity profiles. The main adjustment is its single-name exposure to borrowing member countries, partially offset by our expectation for PCT and geographic diversification. In March 2011, IBRD's board of governors approved a 44% increase in both subscribed capital (US$87 billion) and paid-in capital ($5.1 billion). At fiscal year-end June 30, 2014, $42.6 billion additional capital had been subscribed and $2.5 billion had been paid-in, 23% of which was paid-in during fiscal As a result of the decrease of adjusted common equity (ACE) to $ billion in December 2014, from $ billion in June, and continued growth of the loan portfolio (+2% during the six months to Dec. 31, 2014), as well as the lowering of ratings on some member countries, we estimate the RAC ratio will decrease moderately. This will continue the negative trend for capital adequacy and informs our assessment of the financial profile as very strong, instead of extremely strong previously. In addition to payments from capital increases, comprehensive income reconciles the bank's shareholders' equity from one year to the next. Whereas IBRD's allocable income is relatively steady, its comprehensive income is more volatile than that of many of its peers, mainly because of its large derivatives portfolio. The APRIL 28,

4 institution considers as allocable the income excluding unrealized gains or losses outside the trading portfolio, or on benefit plans (respectively $1 billion and $424 million in fiscal 2014). Consequently, transfers approved by the board of governors held steady at 88% ($676 million) of allocable income at fiscal year-end 2014, up from 68% ($663 million) in the previous year, despite the institution s comprehensive loss. Comprehensive income was negative for the 6 months ending Dec. 31, 2014: a $2 billion loss after a $1.1 billion loss in fiscal 2014 (3% of ACE). This contrasts with a $1.7 billion profit (4.4% of ACE) in fiscal This negative comprehensive income was partly due to the asymmetric accounting treatment of derivatives hedges, which are fair valued, unlike the underlying instruments being hedged. Yet, the comprehensive loss also includes unrealized losses on the fair value of nontrading portfolios, and in fiscal 2014 net actuarial losses on benefit plans, as well as a $141 million unrealized mark-to-market loss mostly related to a security issued by the Austrian bank, Hypo Alpe-Adria (HAA), initially guaranteed by the state of Carinthia. The guarantee on HAA was removed by the Austrian national parliament when cancelling the underlying debt securities after the bank was nationalized. Austria is a member of IBRD, though nonborrowing, and the bank is pursuing its claims in national and international forums, which could inform our view of PCT. Our funding ratios indicate that, unlike at June 30, 2013, IBRD had no more refinancing needs at the six-month and one-year horizon at the end of fiscal The bank more than doubled its medium- and long-term funding volume during fiscal 2014 to $51 billion ($23 billion in 2013) in view of large, expected loan disbursements and debt service in early fiscal Furthermore, we view IBRD's funding program as broadly diversified by both geographic market and type of investor, given its frequent issuance in many markets and currencies. We also note that investors perceive IBRD as a safe haven. Our liquidity ratios indicate that under extremely stressed market conditions, IBRD would be able to fulfill its obligations for at least one year but would need to significantly spread out its scheduled disbursements, even though IBRD significantly increased the size of its liquid asset portfolio to $48.7 billion as of Dec. 31, Even without accounting for extraordinary shareholder support, we assess IBRD's SACP at 'aaa', our highest level. Should IBRD's stand-alone capital adequacy weaken, we consider that shareholders would be ready and willing to answer one or more calls on their subscribed callable capital. Ten 'AAA' rated shareholders could be called on to provide up to $39.7 billion of callable capital (11% of total liabilities, at fiscal 2014) to repay any IBRD debt coming due. If IBRD's stand-alone capital ratios were to decline, the effect on its SACP could be counterbalanced by up to two notches. This would reflect the (currently latent) benefit of IBRD's 'AAA' callable capital. Outlook APRIL 28,

5 The outlook is stable. In our view, IBRD's business profile, capital levels including callable capital, funding, and liquidity are sufficiently robust that there is a less than one-in-three probability that we would lower our issuer credit rating on IBRD in the next two years. That said, if IBRD's business profile weakened or the liquidity and funding portion of its financial profile deteriorated, the ratings would come under pressure. This could happen if management--contrary to our expectations--adopted more-aggressive financial policies, if IBRD's derivative activities generated significant losses, or if several large members ceased treating IBRD as a preferred creditor. Related Criteria And Research Related Criteria Criteria - Governments - General: Multilateral Lending Institutions And Other Supranational Institutions Ratings Methodology - November 26, 2012 Related Research Supranationals Special Edition 2014, Oct. 8, 2014 How An Erosion Of Preferred Creditor Treatment Could Lead To Lower Ratings On Multilateral Lending Institutions, Aug. 26, 2013 Ratings List Ratings To From International Bank for Reconstruction and Development Issuer credit rating Foreign Currency AAA//A-1+ AAA//A-1+ Senior Unsecured Foreign Currency AAA AAA Foreign Currency AAAp AAAp Greater China Regional Scale cnaaa cnaaa Short-Term Debt Foreign Currency A-1+ A-1+ Greater China Regional Scale cna-1+ cna-1+ Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at and at spcapitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) ; London Press Office (44) ; Paris (33) APRIL 28,

6 6708; Frankfurt (49) ; Stockholm (46) ; or Moscow 7 (495) APRIL 28,

7 Copyright 2015 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC, a part of McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT'S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED, OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P's opinions, analyses, and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw, or suspend such acknowledgement at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal, or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain nonpublic information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, (free of charge), and and (subscription) and (subscription) and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at APRIL 28,

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