Robert Brooks, PhD Founder & President, RBAC Inc. Platts 3 rd Annual NGLs Conference Sept 23, (c) RBAC, Inc., 2013, All Rights Reserved.

Transcription

1 Robert Brooks, PhD Founder & President, RBAC Inc. Platts 3 rd Annual NGLs Conference Sept 23, 2013

2 Mission RBAC, Inc What Do We Do? Create world-class decision support analytics and databases for the global energy industry Products GPCM Natural Gas Market Forecasting System GPCM Viewpoints Natural Gas Market Forecast GPCM-based market analysis and consulting GLNG Global LNG Model NGL-NA Natural Gas Liquids Market Forecasting System GPCM, GPCM Viewpoints, NGL-NA, and GLNG are trademarks owned by RT7K, LLC, and are used with its permission.

3 Why Are We All Here? (and having fun!) Shale Gas Revolution Technological innovations: horizontal drilling, hydraulic fracturing, 3&4D seismic + standardized, factory-like drilling processes Effect on natural gas and NGL markets Record gas production levels and crashing gas prices Lower prices drive drilling from dry gas to wet gas then to oil Record gas liquids production and crashing prices Stampede to build new infrastructure to process new gas and transport, fractionate, store, and crack record volumes of natural gas and NGLs

4 NGLs What are they?

5 NGLs How do they get made?

6 Regional Distribution of Gas Processing

7 Regional Variation in Gas Wetness Source: NPC Paper #1-13 Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs), 15Sep11

8 Major NGL Pipeline & Storage Map Source: NEB

9 Mktd Nat Gas vs NGLs Production TCF 30 Mktd Gas NGLs MMbbl 1, (Correl = 87%)

10 US Natural Gas Processed (bcf/day)

11 US NGL Production by Product (bbl/year) 400,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 C2 C3 C4I C4N C5 50,000,000 0

12 % 40% 35% US NGLs Composition (after processing) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% C2 C3 C4I C4N C5 5% 0%

13 US NGL BBL Per MMCF Mktd Gas Production

14 PADD Regions

15 ,000,000 Ethane Production by PADD 200,000, ,000, ,000,000 PADD1 PADD2 PADD3 PADD4 PADD5 50,000,000 0

16 ,000,000 Propane Production by PADD 200,000, ,000, ,000,000 PADD1 PADD2 PADD3 PADD4 PADD5 50,000,000 0

17 US Cryogenic Processing Capacity (mmcf/day) 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

18 US Cryogenic Capacity vs C2 Production MMcf/d Capacity C2 Prod MMbbl/d 50,000 1,200,000 45,000 40,000 1,000,000 35,000 30, ,000 25, ,000 20,000 15, ,000 10,000 5, ,

19 Texas NGLs Production RRC R-3 Data

20 North Dakota NGLs Production ND DMR

21 Appalachian NGL Production (excludes OH) Bbl/year 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 C2 C3 C4I C4N C5 2,000,000 1,000,000 0

22 MMbbl 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 US NGL Production History and Outlook 1, Actual Outlook Outlook from RBAC 13Q2 Base Case 200 0

23 NGL-NA - What is it and what is it used for? Detailed database of US and CAN NGL infrastructure Historical and forecast natural gas supply Gas processing plants, fractionators, petchem plants, refineries Storage, distribution and export terminals NGL transportation (pipelines, rail, truck) Up- and down-stream connections for each plant and terminal Historical and forecast demand by state, sector and product (petchem, refinery, heating, transportation, etc.) Software to access the database and to build scenarios Advanced solver program for computing future market conditions: supply, demand, product flows, prices Multiple reports including infrastructure use and congestion and new build requirements / opportunities

24 NGL-NA Product Flow from Source to Market Natural Gas Production Dry Gas Wet Gas Gas Processing Nat Gas Markets Residue Gas NGL Mix Fractionation (Ethane Propane N-Butane Iso-butane Pentanes+) Non-Petchem Propane Markets Other Butane Markets Diluent Market Export Markets Petchem Feedstock Market Gasoline Blending Market

25 NGLs MIX TRNPTH NGLs OLFs TRNLNK MIX TRNPTH TRNLNK MIX NGLs TRNPTH TRNLNK NGLs OLFs TRNPTH TRNLNK NGLs OLFs TRM1 TRM2 TRM3 TRM4 GPPLNK MIX DRY GAS MIX NGLs FRACLNK NGLs OLFs CRACLNK DEMLNK NGLs OLFs GPP FRAC CRAC DEM SUPLNK WET GAS NGLs OLFs SUP NGL-NA Model Structure MKT

26 RBAC Contact Information Contracts & Administration Liam Leahy, CEO: Technical Development and Management Robert Brooks, Founder - Modeling: rebrooks@rbac.com Bethel King, Senior Energy Analyst: bking@rbac.com Scott McKenna, Senior Gas/NGL Supply Analyst: smckenna@rbac.com Sales James Brooks, Director of Business Development: james.brooks@rbac.com Mailing Address: RBAC, Inc Ventura Blvd, Suite 210 Sherman Oaks CA Sales & Administration: Technical Information and Support: More information: (c) RBAC, Inc., 2013, All Rights Reserved