What s All the Fuss About Fund Flows About?

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1 (212 ( Ana Avramovic What s All the Fuss About Fund Flows About? Market Commentary 10 December 2013 Key Points Reports on fund flows rarely define whether they are measuring domestic or global managers, US equities or global equities. As a result, data can appear conflicting. After explaining how to interpret fund flows, we show that they don t really relate to market moves anyway. What might be driving the market rally instead? Retail investing directly and corporate buybacks are two possibilities. Follow or Forget Fund Flows? Fund flows have long been a headline-grabber, especially in recent years as the market has continued to rally while volumes have waned. Inflows should mean people are buying and prices will rise right? But which flows should we track? A bunch of different sources offer up their own data on fund flows which are sometimes conflicting, often confusing, and rarely explained. And do they even matter in practice? If not, why not? We seek to explain Behind the Headlines In recent weeks, various sources have published the following: Equity funds had a third consecutive week of big inflows with $12.4b; year-to-date [through Oct] have had inflows of ~$231b vs a mere $16b to bond funds, BofAML chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett writes, citing BofAML and EPFR Global data. --Bloomberg (1) Investors have poured $277 billion into stock-based mutual funds and exchange traded funds through Oct CNN Money (2) Stock funds won $172 billion in the year s first 10 months, the largest amount since they got $272 billion in all of 2000, according to Morningstar Inc. (MORN) estimates. --Bloomberg (3) Year to date [through Oct], stock funds grabbed $ billion vs. $99.29 billion outflow in the year-earlier period. --Investor s Business Daily (4) A quick read would confuse anyone. Seems like it should be straightforward: how much money did stock funds take in YTD (through October)? Yet the excerpts above give four different answers. What is the correct one? $231bn? $277bn? $172bn? or a relatively paltry $134 bn? The variability of over $100bn, with the highest value almost double the lowest, is certainly not due to a simple rounding error. It turns out that each of these sources is actually reporting on slightly different things. So the numbers should indeed be different. But the language doesn t always make these differences obvious. We ll explore all the different factors involved in reporting fund flows before returning to explain what the examples above are really showing.

2 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Total assets ($Bn) $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 Breakdown of US ETF Industry Assets by Underlying US Equity 55% Breakdown of Global Mutual Fund Assets (by manager s domicile) AsiaPac 10% Europe 29% US Equity Mutual Funds Global Equity Mutual Funds Bond Mutual Funds Other 7% Total Assets Across Funds Other 1% all ETFs Commodities 4% US Equity ETFs US 54% Note: For a look at the global securities market beyond just mutual funds, please click here: Just How Large Is the Global Securities Market? Total Assets in US Mutual Funds, ETFs Fixed Income 16% Foreign Equity 24% Source: Credit Suisse Trading Strategy Defining the Data We must be very clear about exactly what fund flows we are looking at. Here are some factors to keep in mind: What are the funds : mutual funds and/or ETFs? Flows in/out of hedge funds are also an interesting datapoint (there has been a strong preference for fixed income funds over the years; equity strategies had their first strong quarter in a long while in Q3 2013), but this data is only reported quarterly, with a 1 month lag. Investor Universe: are managers domiciled in the US (ICI data) or across the globe (Morningstar, EPFR providers)? The Investment Company Institute (ICI) is the official representative of the US managed funds industry, created out of the Investment Company Act of 1940, and they report their data to the Fed. Other 3 rd party data providers rely on samples, which may be limited and not representative of the whole universe. Investment Universe: Does equity refer to US stocks or global? (Note that global is different from international. Global can include US stocks, but it also includes international stocks. The US category is limited to domestic only). Identifying the universe covered is particularly important for ETFs. As the pie chart to the left shows, only around half of all ETF assets are invested in US equities (an additional 20% are in global equities). The rest is linked to commodities and fixed income (and a fraction to currencies or other). Unfortunately, many sources reporting ETF flows include all ETFs. If the objective, as it usually is, is to analyze implications of fund flows on the equity market, using all ETFs is incorrect. This tends to not be such a big factor for mutual funds; they are usually pretty clearly identified by asset class. This may be because total assets in mutual funds are many times larger than ETFs; ETFs are a relatively new product. As the product was gaining traction, analysts focused on growth of the overall ETF market without slicing it into underlyings. Reading the Reported Data With the above in mind, let s return to our four articles and figure out what the numbers mean. 1) Data comes from EPFR Global and is reporting mutual fund flows for all equity funds, domestic + abroad. 2) Again, we re covering all equity funds worldwide, but now the number includes ETFs. Generally, the term funds only refers to mutual funds. In the all-too-rare occasion that ETFs are actually counted, that is usually noted. 3) Here, the funds are domiciled in the US, but counts investments anywhere around the globe. It is an estimate from Morningstar data. 4) This is also based on US-domiciled funds, investing in the US and globally. It should be the same universe as in #3. However, the data provider is ICI so the numbers are different! Surprisingly, none of these sources break down the stock flows into US equities vs global equities. Sure, it s interesting to see an overall preference for equities, but it is perhaps more relevant to us to know what flows are into our own market specifically. This is quite misleading for the many readers who do not even realize there is a difference. In fact, as we ll see below, while the headline numbers look very favorable for equities overall, they re less so for US equities. 2

3 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 -$10 -$20 -$30 -$40 -$50 Weekly Mutual Fund Flows ETF flows vs mutual fund flows Monthly US Equity Mutual Fund Flows January 2013 was the strongest in nine years While looking at both mutual funds and ETFs can often paint a more complete picture, we also note that sometimes it might be more instructive to use only one of them. We ve referenced only mutual fund flows several times on this page when we ve wanted to put flows in historical context, since ETFs simply don t have as long history. Additionally, ETFs have actually had inflows for most of their history in general, simply because the product is gaining in popularity. On the other hand, we explain on page five why it might be useful to only look at ETFs in isolation at times. What the Data Actually Show Now that we know how to interpret data and know what to watch out for, what does funds flows data tell us? Since we re interested in measuring the demand for equities in general, and US equities in specific, we should include both mutual funds and ETFs. We prefer to use ICI data (which covers US managers, but investing anywhere in the world), since it is the most reliable source. Investors do a 180 on bonds The top line breakdown shows a pretty dramatic reversal in bond fund flows. From 2009-May 2013, bond mutual funds attracted $1.1 trillion in investor money, and bond ETFs took in $211 billion, for a total of over $1.3 trillion. Just a few words from Ben Bernanke in June hinting that the end of QE might be nigh brought those inflows to a screeching halt. Immediately, in June 2013, investors stopped putting money into bond funds and instead withdrew $60 billion from mutual funds, $10 billion from ETFs. For bond mutual funds, this was by far the largest 1-month outflow in history 50% larger than the next biggest, in fact (Oct 2008). It was also considerably more than any single month of inflows (largest 1month inflow was $48bn in Sept 2009). For bond ETFs, June s outflow was only the 5 th monthly outflow since January The outflows have endured since June for mutual funds (not ETFs), and now total $150 bn. Independently, equities back in favor At the same time, equities have been enjoying inflows this year, in contrast to years of outflows. This has prompted a number of analysts to declare that a great rotation from bonds to equities has begun (something we ve been anticipating for years as bond yields don t seem to be able to go any lower). We do not believe we are seeing a shift from bonds into equities, however. While there does appear to be renewed appetite for equities in 2013, it seems to be independent of any demand for fixed income. Equity inflows began in January (in fact, January 2013 s inflow was the largest monthly inflow for mutual funds in nine years see left), and have been positive every month since. The bond about-face only transpired in June. We ve actually seen this happen before, as we reported in Rates Rising & Fund Flows. We looked at cycles of rising rates and how they impact bond fund and equity fund flows, and found that they haven t historically synched up as we might have expected. Among equities, global more popular than US When we drill into equities a bit, we see that it is actually global stocks, not US stocks, which are attracting investors. Global equity mutual funds are on pace for inflows of over $140bn this year, which would be the second highest year on record (after 2005). US equity mutual funds are also positive for the year, but the total is only $30bn. After January s strong start, the rest of the year has been a mixed bag, in and out. These Flows Are Not Moving the Market The implication of this is that yes, (retail) investors finally do seem to be comfortable with equities again after being burned so severely by the market collapse. But with about $220bn traded every day in the US, this money barely even registers. Certainly, it is not nearly enough to be powering the rally that has persisted all year (since 2009, actually). 3

4 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Liquid Assets / Total Assets S&P Index US Equity fund Mutual flows Fund ($billions) Flows ($Billions) Correlation between US Equity Mutual Fund Flows Mutual Fund Flows vs Prior Week's S&P Return and (based S&P on Returns weekly data (past since 2009) 5 years) Market causing fund flows $10 $10 6% of all 22% datapoints 7% of all 24% $5 datapoints $5 $0 $0 -$5 -$5 -$10 -$10 33% 39% -$15 -$15-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% -8% -6% -4% -2% S&P 0% return 2% 4% 6% 8% 6% 5% 4% 3% 32% 37% correlation = 35% S&P Return Liquid Assets Held by US Equity Mutual Funds Liquid Assets held by US Equity Mutual Funds (as a (as% a of Total Assets) S&P mutual fund liquid assets Individual vs Institutional Ownership of US Mutual Funds Outside retirement plan 28% Institutional Investors 5% Individual Households 95% % of US Households that Own Mutual Funds Inside/Outside Retirement Plans Source: ICI Inside retirment plan 72% Usefulness of Fund Flows Even if fund flows aren t enough to influence daily trading, could they nevertheless be useful for signaling turning points? Little Correlation with Market Performance We can determine with just a passing glance that mutual fund flows do not correlate to actual market performance. Take the fact that US equity funds have faced increasing outflows every year since % of all monthly flows have been negative. Meanwhile, the S&P has seen double-digit gains every year (except for 2011, when it was flat but certainly not down). Given this poor correlation, perhaps fund flows are actually a contrarian signal? To get more rigorous about the relationship, we formally calculated the correlation between weekly fund flows and S&P returns. The strongest relationship between the series was as a lagging indicator where fund flows react to market moves but even then, the correlation is only 35%. Rather than influencing market moves (in the same or opposite direction) it looks like there is simply no relationship between fund flows and market performance. Why Mutual Fund Flows Are Disconnected 1) Fund flows are not investment flows Fund flows track the flow of money in/out of mutual funds/etfs. In the case of mutual funds, that represents a decision by a retail investor to participate in whatever choices the fund manager makes. How and when that manager actually deploys any new cash in the market is a separate decision, which can happen at a later time. While most managers generally maintain a relatively stable level of investment (managers are not paid to just hold an investor s cash), they can and do increase or decrease their cash balances if they feel investment opportunities are particularly attractive/scarce, or if they anticipate needing cash to meet redemption requests. The chart to the left shows, it does appear that fund managers built up cash reserves through the crisis, but whittled them down in 2009 as the economy improved and stock prices rose (the balances seem to have remained fairly stable since then). 2) Mutual funds held in 401Ks, not actively traded Mutual funds are primarily (95%) held by retail investors. Furthermore, 72% of mutual funds are purchased through retirement plans such as 401Ks 1. Participants often select investments (funds) at the outset, and largely leave it to automated processes to allocate more money subsequently. Most individuals do not actively trade in and out of the investment choices within their 401K. Additionally, individuals may withdraw from retirement plans when money is tight, as it was in the crisis. In fact, a January 2013 report on retirement savings found that Americans withdraw around $70bn from 401ks every year to cover debt payments. This might help to explain why fund flows seem disconnected from market movement and why we ve seen outflows since the crisis (many Americans still struggle to pay down debt). Automatic 401K contributions are certainly one reason why January historically sees inflows: if a portion of an employee s salary is automatically deposited in a retirement account, that contribution may peter out over the course of the year as limits are reached, but it will kick in again come January. It s also possible that companies make their matching contributions in January Investment Company Fact Book 4

5 Net New Assets in Retail Brokerage Accounts Source: Credit Suisse, Ameritrade, E*Trade, Schwab, Fidelity, Scottrade Retail Margin Debt Source: NYSE Corporate Flows ($Value of S&P 500 Net Share Changes) Corporate flows = stock buybacks - new share issuance Source: Credit Suisse Trading Strategy How They Are Useful 1) To measure Investor confidence Since mutual funds are primarily held by retail investors, mutual fund flows may be a useful gauge of retail sentiments. Although they seem to be disconnected from actual market moves, they may instead be a measure of that elusive investor confidence that the SEC and exchanges so love to cite (without defining). 2) To indicate positioning Hedge funds and long-only institutional investors smart money do use ETFs a fair amount. But the majority of holders are still retail and Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs), who also represent retail interests. Because of this, ETF flows tend to be similar to mutual fund flows, so they may not offer an advantage in terms of predicting market moves, since we ve already seen that there is little correlation between fund flows & market performance. We also know that when compared to the amount traded every day, the magnitude of fund flows is not enough to move the needle. What makes ETF flows particularly interesting, though, is the fact that they can be used for tactical trading intraday, as opposed to mutual funds, which tend to be sticky money. This makes them useful for learning about portfolio positioning. Furthermore, ETF flows can provide more granular information on sectors or themes that are in/out of favor and where investors are concentrating. Check out our monthly ETF report to track ETF flows. What is Driving the Market? If the magnitude of fund flows is not nearly enough to be behind the market rally, and there doesn t seem to be much relationship between market performance & fund flows anyway, who is buying equities and driving the S&P to all-time highs? Retail Going Direct The first chart above shows that retail has been depositing more and more money into personal brokerage accounts. We do not know where this money will go. It could be used to invest in mutual funds, after all. But when we then observe that margin used by retail investors (middle chart) has increased by over $200bn from the Feb 2009 low (more than doubling), this suggests that retail has been going to the market directly, and aggressively so. After sustaining painful losses in 2008, it s possible that these individuals decided they didn t want to pay for someone else to manage their money anymore. Corporate Buybacks Probably the biggest source of new money entering the market is coming from corporates via share buybacks. Buybacks have been increasing over the past few years, as IPOs (which would extract money from the market) were largely stagnant. The net effect is an injection of cash, supporting prices. Looking Ahead Most people expect that rates will have to rise (of course, the question of when is one we ve been asking for quite some time). Rising rates could have mixed implications: Bonds lose value as rates rise. This makes equities look relatively more attractive, which could accelerate a shift to equities. On the other hand, with higher rates, debt is more expensive, including margin debt. This might restrict levered purchases from the retail crowd. Additionally, companies seeking capital may tap the equities market rather than issuing debt. We ve already seen a large increase in IPOs this year. If the trend continues, it will offset buybacks and reduce the corporate factor. 5

6 Disclaimer: Please follow the attached hyperlink to an important disclosure: Structured securities, derivatives and options are complex instruments that are not suitable for every investor, may involve a high degree of risk, and may be appropriate investments only for sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, recommendations, statistics or other technical data will be supplied upon request. Any trade information is preliminary and not intended as an official transaction confirmation. Use the following links to read the Options Clearing Corporation s disclosure document: Because of the importance of tax considerations to many option transactions, the investor considering options should consult with his/her tax advisor as to how taxes affect the outcome of contemplated options transactions. This material has been prepared by individual traders or sales personnel of Credit Suisse Securities Limited and not by the Credit Suisse research department. It is provided for informational purposes, is intended for your use only and does not constitute an invitation or offer to subscribe for or purchase any of the products or services mentioned. The information provided is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. It is intended only to provide observations and views of individual traders or sales personnel, which may be different from, or inconsistent with, the observations and views of Credit Suisse research department analysts, other Credit Suisse traders or sales personnel, or the proprietary positions of Credit Suisse. Observations and views expressed herein may be changed by the trader or sales personnel at any time without notice. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, expressed or implied is made regarding future performance. The information set forth above has been obtained from or based upon sources believed by the trader or sales personnel to be reliable, but each of the trader or sales personnel and Credit Suisse does not represent or warrant its accuracy or completeness and is not responsible for losses or damages arising out of errors, omissions or changes in market factors. This material does not purport to contain all of the information that an interested party may desire and, in fact, provides only a limited view of a particular market. Credit Suisse may, from time to time, participate or invest in transactions with issuers of securities that participate in the markets referred to herein, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or derivatives thereof. The most recent Credit Suisse research on any company mentioned is at , CREDIT SUISSE 6

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