Empresas CMPC S.A.'BBB-' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Stable

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1 Research Update: Empresas CMPC S.A.'BBB-' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Stable Primary Credit Analyst: Amalia E Bulacios, Buenos Aires (54) ; amalia.bulacios@spglobal.com Secondary Contacts: Renata Lotfi, Sao Paulo (55) ; renata.lotfi@spglobal.com Bruno Ferreira, Sao Paulo (55) ; bruno.ferreira@spglobal.com Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Ratings Score Snapshot Related Criteria Ratings List MARCH 17,

2 Research Update: Empresas CMPC S.A.'BBB-' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Stable Overview After posting weaker-than-expected credit metrics in 2016, we expect Chile-based forest products company Empresas CMPC to post improving cash flow generation from 2017 onward amid recent pulp price hikes and a gradual economic rebound in Latin America. We're affirming our 'BBB-' corporate credit and issue-level ratings on CMPC. The stable outlook reflects our view that the company will generate higher cash flows and take countercyclical measures to reduce leverage in the next 6-12 months, which will lead to funds from operations (FFO) to net debt between 22% and 25% and net debt to EBITDA between 3x and 3.5x. Rating Action On March 17, 2017, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BBB-' corporate credit rating on Empresas CMPC S.A. The outlook remains stable. Moreover, we affirmed our 'BBB-' issue-level rating in the senior unsecured notes. We believe that the investors in the senior notes don't face a significant disadvantage as creditors of the financing vehicle of the group (Inversiones CMPC), since they are guaranteed by Empresas CMPC, thus ranking pari passu to all the parent's current and future senior unsecured debt. Moreover, we estimate priority liabilities are comfortably below 20% of net tangible assets, thus there is no significant structural subordination of Empresas CMPC. Rationale The rating affirmation reflects our expectation that CMPC will improve its cash flow generation and reduce leverage in 2017 after posting weaker-than-expected credit metrics in 2016 amid lower pulp prices and higher maintenance costs, which offset additional cash flows from Guaíba II. Our expectation of improved cash flows stems from price hikes expected through the first half of 2017, lower maintenance stoppages in the pulp segment, and a higher capacity in the tissue business following the ramp-up of the Cañete mill in Peru and additional capacity from the Maule mill in Chile during the second half of More stable currencies should help the company increase prices in real terms in some domestic markets where the company operates. Furthermore, we believe that management and shareholders would respond to MARCH 17,

3 unexpected events that could put further pressure on leverage by executing countercyclical measures to rapidly reduce its net-debt-to-ebitda ratio to below 3.5x. Our base-case scenario for 2017 and 2018 includes the following assumptions: GDP growth of less than 1% in Brazil, 2.5% in Argentina, 2.2% in Chile, 4% in Peru, and close to 1.6% in Latin America. In 2018, we expect 2% GDP growth in Brazil, 2.5% in Argentina, 2.4% in Chile, 4% in Peru, and 2.3% in Latin America. Inflation below 5% in Chile, Brazil, and Peru in the next two years, and for Argentina around 20% in 2017 and 15% in Average exchange rates of 675 Chilean pesos to $1 in 2017 and CLP685 to $1 in 2018, and 3.30 Brazilian real to $1 in 2017 and R$3.40 to $1 in Regardless of recent pulp price hikes, we still expect some pressure on prices because of uncertainty related to the speed of new capacities entering the market in the second half of We assume pulp prices for Bleached Eucalyptus Kraft Pulp (BEKP) of $670 per ton from 2017 onward, cost and freight (CFR) delivered in Europe, and a premium of $100 per ton for Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp (BSKP). We expect a slight increase in volume of BEKP sold by CMPC in 2017 and 2018, although production in 2017 will still be slowed by an unscheduled stoppage at Guaíba II in the beginning of the year, which affected with around 120 thousand ton. We assume 2.8 million tons of BEKP and 630 tons of BSKP sold to third parties in 2017, constant BSKP volumes in 2018, and 2.9 million tons of BEKP sold in We expect relatively stable total cash costs from 2017 onward. A slight reduction may come from lower maintenance costs and the company's efforts to renegotiate part of its freight contracts. We expect stable volumes in the forestry segment, driven by plywood exports, especially to the U.S., given signs of strength in the American housing market. Increasing tissue and paper volumes because of mild economic recovery in some Latin American countries and additional capacities coming online from the Cañete and Maule mills. Cañete added 54 thd ton of tissue paper to CMPC's capacity, and Maule added 80 thd ton of boxboard, expected to be the main driver of this segment in coming years. We expect the company to pass through local inflation to final paper and tissue prices; along with more stable currencies, that should lead to higher revenues in these segments. Annual capital expenditures (capex) of roughly $500 million, including the conclusion of project updates (the Maule mill), enhancements on the Laja pulp mill in Chile and other maintenance capex for Low dividend payments in 2017, given CMPC's low taxable income in 2016, and we follow the company's dividends payout ratio of at least 30% of previous year's net income in $150 million cash outflow related to the restitution to consumers in Chile, following a collusion scheme with Swedish-owned Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (SCA). MARCH 17,

4 As a result, we expect the following credit metrics for the next two years: Consolidated EBITDA margin of 20%-21%; Net debt to EBITDA between 3x and 3.5x; and FFO to debt between 22% and 25%. The collusion case involving Empresas CMPC and SCA (BBB+/CreditWatch Neg/A-2) resulted in an agreement for CMPC to pay roughly $150 million in restitution to Chilean consumers. We are incorporating this cash outflow in our base case. The company recently signed in a committed credit facility for $400 million, not subject to any material adverse change (MAC) clauses, which we believe underpins the company's strong liquidity position. The ratings on CMPC continue to reflect the company's competitive cost structure, due to its access to highly productive forests in Chile and Brazil; a new state-of-the-art production unit, represented by Guaíba II; integration into wood; and energy and efficient logistics. In addition, we incorporate the company's geographic diversification, which mitigates risks from economic cycles in any particular country where CMPC operates, as well as its diversification into more value-added products such as paper and tissue. The latter grants the company some resilience in economic downturns, corroborated by CMPC's sizable market share in domestic economies, through several brands and a good variety of products. Liquidity We view Empresas CMPC's liquidity position as strong. Despite the $150 million in restitution to Chilean consumers, we continue to expect sources of liquidity to be higher than uses by more than 50% and CMPC to post a cash surplus even if EBITDA declines by 30%, which will allow the company to withstand adverse market circumstances for the next 24 months while still having sufficient liquidity to meet its financial obligations. We incorporate into our liquidity assessment the company's recent three-year committed credit line. The assessment also contemplates the company's proven ability to tap international and domestic markets, solid relationships with banks, and adequate financial flexibility given its smooth debt maturity profile in coming years. Principal liquidity sources: Cash and cash equivalents of $596 million as of Dec. 31, 2016; FFO of $600 million-$650 million in 2017 and above $800 million in 2018; and The three-year committed credit facility with no MAC clauses for $400 million. Principal liquidity uses: Short-term maturities of $279 million as of Dec. 31, 2016, followed by roughly $650 million in 2018; Capex of $500 million in the next two years; Dividend payout ratio of 30%, the minimum regulatory requirement for Chilean companies. We expect only $5 million in dividends in 2017 because MARCH 17,

5 of the low taxable income reported in 2016; and The $150 million restitution paid to Chilean consumers in the collusion scheme with SCA in Chile. Outlook The stable outlook reflects our view that the company will generate higher cash flows and take countercyclical measures to reduce leverage in the next 6-12 months while maintaining its solid competitive position and low cost structure, leading to FFO to net debt between 22% and 25% and net debt to EBITDA between 3x and 3.5x. Downside scenario We could revise the outlook to negative if the company does not show an inflection point on its leverage trend in the next 6-12 months or downgrade Empresas CMPC if we understand its net debt to EBITDA will persistently be above 4x and FFO to net debt below 20%. That would happen, for instance, if EBITDA margins drop to around 18%, which would be consistent with BEKP list prices at roughly $600 per ton. Upside scenario Although we see a rating increase as unlikely, any positive rating action would be linked with better-than-expected industry conditions, including BEKP list prices above $730 per ton in 2017, which would lead to EBITDA margin above 23%, net debt to EBITDA below 3x, and FFO to net debt higher than 30%. Ratings Score Snapshot Corporate Credit Rating: BBB-/Stable/-- Business risk: Satisfactory Country risk: Intermediate Industry risk: Moderately high Competitive position: Strong Financial risk: Significant Cash flow/leverage: Significant Anchor: bbb- Modifiers: Diversification/portfolio effect: Neutral (no impact) Capital structure: Neutral (no impact) Liquidity: Strong (no impact) Financial policy: Neutral (no impact) Management and governance: Fair (no impact) Comparable rating analysis: Neutral (no impact) MARCH 17,

6 Related Criteria General Criteria: Guarantee Criteria, Oct. 21, 2016 Criteria - Corporates - General: Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Dec. 16, 2014 Criteria - Corporates - Industrials: Key Credit Factors For The Forest And Paper Products Industry, Feb. 12, 2014 General Criteria: Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 19, 2013 Criteria - Corporates - General: Corporate Methodology: Ratios And Adjustments, Nov. 19, 2013 Criteria - Corporates - General: Corporate Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Ratings Above The Sovereign--Corporate And Government Ratings: Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Methodology: Industry Risk, Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Methodology For Linking Short-Term And Long-Term Ratings For Corporate, Insurance, And Sovereign Issuers, May 7, 2013 General Criteria: Methodology: Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities And Insurers, Nov. 13, 2012 General Criteria: Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks, Sept. 14, 2009 Criteria - Corporates - General: 2008 Corporate Criteria: Rating Each Issue, April 15, 2008 Ratings List Ratings Affirmed Empresas CMPC S.A. Corporate Credit Rating Inversiones CMPC S.A. Senior Unsecured BBB-/Stable/-- BBB- Certain terms used in this report, particularly certain adjectives used to express our view on rating relevant factors, have specific meanings ascribed to them in our criteria, and should therefore be read in conjunction with such criteria. Please see Ratings Criteria at for further information. Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at and at All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on the S&P Global Ratings' public website at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. MARCH 17,

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