Research Update: Kingdom of Belgium Outlook Revised To Negative On Political Deadlock; 'AA+/A-1+' Rating Affirmed.

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1 December 14, 2010 Research Update: Kingdom of Belgium Outlook Revised To Negative On Political Deadlock; 'AA+/A-1+' Rating Primary Credit Analyst: Marko Mrsnik, Madrid Secondary Contact: Frank Gill, London (44) Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Outlook Related Criteria And Research Ratings List 1

2 Research Update: Kingdom of Belgium Outlook Revised To Negative On Political Deadlock; 'AA+/A-1+' Rating Overview A better-than-anticipated 2010 fiscal outcome contributed to our affirmation of Belgium's 'AA+/A-1+' ratings. However, we anticipate that prolonged political uncertainty could hurt Belgium's credit standing. Accordingly, we have revised our outlook on Belgium to negative. Rating Action On Dec. 14, 2010, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services revised its outlook on the Kingdom of Belgium to negative from stable. At the same time, Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'AA+' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term ratings on Belgium. The 'AAA' transfer and convertibility assessment on Belgium is unchanged. Rationale We believe that Belgium's prolonged domestic political uncertainty poses risks to its government's credit standing, especially given the difficult market conditions many eurozone governments are facing. We view Belgium's political uncertainty as primarily evidenced by the prolonged delay in forming a federal government after the June 2010 general election as well as the prolonged inability to form a key policy consensus across Belgium's linguistic divide. These key policy areas include, among others, intergovernmental fiscal arrangements, the status of the Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde bilingual voting district, and devolution in social security, health care, and labor market regulation. We believe that this prolonged political uncertainty would have been more detrimental to the government's credit standing were it not for Belgium's capable and strong institutions--both at the federal and regional levels. In our view, these positive factors are helping the government fall below its 2010 general government fiscal deficit target of 4.8% of GDP. Better-than-anticipated economic growth of about 2% this year has also helped Belgium's 2010 budget outturn. Exports have fueled this growth, as external demand from Belgium's neighbors and chief trading partners is strengthening, too. Lower-than-budgeted nominal interest rates have contributed to the 2010 fiscal outturn as well. However, we see risks to the government's 4.1% of GDP fiscal target for 2011 and to Belgium's fiscal stance generally. Notwithstanding an apparent Standard & Poor s RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal December 14,

3 Research Update: Kingdom of Belgium Outlook Revised To Negative On Political Deadlock; 'AA+/A-1+' Rating consensus across political parties on the need for continued fiscal consolidation and government net debt reduction from the current high level of 94.6% of GDP, we believe Belgium's current caretaker government may be ill-equipped to respond to shocks to public finances. In our view, the federal government's projected 2011 gross borrowing requirement of around 11% of GDP leaves it exposed to rising real interest rates. On the other hand, we currently do not expect further government support for the nation's banking sector beyond that already extended after the 2008/2009 global recession. We also note that Belgium was in an estimated net external creditor position of around 51% of current account receipts at Dec. 31, Outlook We could lower the sovereign rating on Belgium one notch if we conclude that the lack of consensus will result in the government not being able to stabilize its debt trajectory and to move forward on reforms designed to improve political cohesion. If Belgium fails to form a government soon, a downgrade could occur, potentially within six months. Should a government be formed but is, in our opinion, ineffective in its fiscal stance or devolution, we are likely to consider rating action within two years. On the other hand, if we believe that the government's debt trajectory has stabilized or will improve and if some progress is made on other areas important for strengthening the social contract, ratings could stabilize at current levels. Related Criteria And Research Sovereign Credit Ratings: A Primer, May 29, European Government Finances: Fixing The Roof After The Storm, Oct. 4, 2010 Ratings List Ratings ; CreditWatch/Outlook Action To From Belgium (Kingdom of) Sovereign Credit Rating AA+/Negative/A-1+ AA+/Stable/A-1+ Ratings Certificate Of Deposit Local Currency Transfer & Convertibility Assessment Local Currency Senior Unsecured Short-Term Debt Fonds de l'infrastructure Ferroviaire Senior Unsecured* A-1+ AAA AA+ A-1+ AA+ 3

4 Research Update: Kingdom of Belgium Outlook Revised To Negative On Political Deadlock; 'AA+/A-1+' Rating *Guaranteed by Belgium. N.B.--This list does not include all ratings affected. Additional Contact: Sovereign Complete ratings information is available to RatingsDirect subscribers on the Global Credit Portal at and RatingsDirect subscribers at All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) ; London Press Office (44) ; Paris (33) ; Frankfurt (49) ; Stockholm (46) ; or Moscow (7) Standard & Poor s RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal December 14,

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