Fibria Celulose S.A. Outlook Revised To Stable From Negative On Leverage Reduction 'BBB-' Rating Affirmed

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1 Research Update: Fibria Celulose S.A. Outlook Revised To Stable From Negative On Leverage Reduction 'BBB-' Primary Credit Analyst: Renata Lotfi, Sao Paulo (55) ; Secondary Contacts: Diego H Ocampo, Buenos Aires (55) ; diego.ocampo@spglobal.com Alvaro Landi, Sao Paulo; alvaro.landi@spglobal.com Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale Rating Above The Sovereign Outlook Ratings Score Snapshot Related Criteria Ratings List NOVEMBER 8,

2 Research Update: Fibria Celulose S.A. Outlook Revised To Stable From Negative On Leverage Reduction 'BBB-' Overview Brazil-based hardwood pulp producer Fibria has been able to reduce its leverage due to better pulp prices and the completion of an expansion cycle, and its metrics are now consistent with its financial policy. We're affirming our 'BBB-' ratings on the company and revising the outlook to stable from negative. The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Fibria will generate solid cash flow from operations after the successful ramp-up of the Horizonte 2 mill, which should support adjusted debt to EBITDA of 2.0x-2.5x and funds from operations (FFO) to debt above 30% over the next two years, even in the case of shareholder-friendly initiatives. Rating Action On Nov. 8, 2017, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BBB-' corporate credit rating on Fibria Celulose S.A. (Fibria). We revised the outlook to stable from negative. At the same time, we affirmed our 'BBB-' issue-level rating on the financial vehicle Fibria Overseas Finance Ltd.'s bonds, which Fibria fully guarantees. Rationale The rating actions reflect Fibria's deleveraging trend following better than expected pulp prices--reference prices increased by 45% during and the successful ramp-up of its new pulp mill Horizonte 2, whose operations started at the end of August As a result, the company's leverage is now within the boundaries of its financial policy that mandates a net leverage below 3.5x during expansion cycles. Even though strong pulp prices were the main cause of the deleverage, Fibria had mapped in advance several working capital initiatives in order to increase its cash position and comply with its targets, which we view as positive in terms of its commitment to leverage tolerance. Horizonte 2 increases Fibria's production capacity of Bleached Eucalyptus Kraft pulp (BEKP) by almost 2 million tons per year, bringing its total annual capacity to around 7 million tons. Fibria completed the construction phase a couple of months ahead of schedule with a total investment of $2.2 billion (almost 20% below the original budget when measured in U.S. dollars and 5% NOVEMBER 8,

3 lower in Brazilian reais). The cash production cost in Horizonte 2 is around $100 to $115 per ton. The mill benefits from an important energy surplus, the low distance from the forest (it's up to 100km away), and the synergies with the Line 1 in the same site (Tres Lagoas). Even though the global pulp market remains very fragmented, this new mill should improve Fibria's competitive position since it positions the company as the largest hardwood producer worldwide (commanding about 20% of global supply when including the sales from Klabin S.A.). We also note the company's very competitive cost structure; comfortably in the first quartile of the industry's curve. We expect Fibria to report an EBITDA of R$4.7-R$4.8 billion during 2017, following consolidated pulp volumes of 6.1 million tons (including close to 800 tons from Klabin), average realized prices of around R$1.850 per ton, and adjusted margins (excluding the effect of Klabin) of about 48% (versus reported figures of 42%). This scenario drives our predications for adjusted net debt to EBITDA of around 3.0x and FFO to net adjusted debt of 25% (a significant improvement from the leverage peak during the first half of 2017, with almost 5.0x and 17%, respectively). For 2018 and 2019, we forecast adjusted net debt to EBITDA of 2.0x-2.5x and FFO to net adjusted debt above 30%. These ratios will provide Fibria with some cushion to absorb additional price shocks. The higher scale of operations with lower cash cost should also help portfolio management and supply discipline. Our base-case scenario includes the following set of assumptions: Average list BEKP prices (delivered in Europe) of $840 per ton in 2018 and $750 per ton in The favorable momentum in the pulp market during 2017 resulted mainly from global supply disruption--due to unplanned downtime and lower than expected new supply because of delays in the start-up of a few new pulp projects--and healthy demand in emerging markets, especially in China, where demand for tissue paper is increasing at high rates. It's likely that the capacity that was supposed to come online in 2017 will hit the market in 2018 instead. This adds to the new capacity of Fibria and the resumption of some operations that were in downtime. As a result, we think it's likely that pulp prices will decline in 2018, but with a still solid supply/demand balance and prices above the long-term averages. However, we also acknowledge that the currently elevated prices could increase downside risks and volatility, especially volatility driven by Chinese papermakers' buying patterns. Average exchange rates of R$3.33 per $1 in 2018 and R$3.38 per $1 in Reference prices and exchange rate assumptions, combined with higher discounts applied in Europe--following the unfavorable negotiations for pulp producers during drive our assumptions of relatively stable net prices in Brazilian reais during 2018 and then decreasing by 10% in We expect Fibria to deliver around 7.6 million tons of pulp per year in 2018 and 2019 (including Klabin's volumes). Cash costs between R$615 and R$630 per ton in 2018 and 2019, driving adjusted EBITDA margins at 45%-50% (versus reported figures of 40%-45%). NOVEMBER 8,

4 Capital expenditures (capex) of R$4.0 billion in 2018 (including the R$1 billion related to cash disbursement in Horizonte 2) and R$3.4 billion in We expect Fibria to implement a debt reduction strategy in order to benefit from the high pulp prices and the increased free operating cash flow (FOCF) generation following the completion of Horizonte 2. During its investment cycle ( ), Fibria returned almost R$2.5 billion in dividends to shareholders. In our forecast, we assume the minimum dividend payment, but we acknowledge the company might increase shareholders' remuneration. Still, we believe that Fibria will comply with its financial policy of non-adjusted leverage below 2.5x in a normal scenario. Rating Above The Sovereign Our ratings on Fibria remain fairly insulated from Brazil's economic risks, because its export-oriented business would help it endure a potential sovereign distress scenario with currency controls. However, since Fibria's assets are primarily in Brazil, we limit its potential rating to the lower of either Brazil's foreign currency rating (BB/Negative/B) plus four notches, or one notch above the country's transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment, which is currently 'BBB-'. To rate Fibria above the ratings and T&C on Brazil, we test its capacity to remain current in a sovereign stress scenario. That scenario involves steep currency depreciation, pulp price declines, rampant inflation, and severe haircuts to domestic cash balances and cash flow generation. We understand that because the company holds a large portion of cash abroad in foreign currency, it could overcome restrictions on access to foreign exchange to satisfy its operating and financial needs. In addition, a meaningful portion of its operating cash generation comes from its trading subsidiaries outside Brazil. Its scheduled debt payments are also balanced for the next two years. We stressed the company under a sovereign default scenario for the next 12 months using the following assumptions: One year of stressed conditions; 10% GDP decline, which minimally affects Fibria's results because its exposure to local markets is low; 50% depreciation of the Brazilian real, positively impacting cash in foreign currency and operating cash flow generation since realized prices would go up while cash costs would go down, and negatively impacting foreign currency debt after conversion; Doubling of inflation, which directly impacts domestic components of production costs; Drop of BEKP pulp prices to $550 per ton (delivered in Europe); 10% haircut to bank deposits and 70% of face value for securities denominated in local currency; Sustaining capex of R$2.5 billion (forest and industrial); Working capital outflow of R$500 million; and No dividend distribution. NOVEMBER 8,

5 Liquidity Fibria's strong liquidity assessment incorporates our expectation that the company's improved operation cash flow and solid cash availability should allow it to comfortably cover its uses of cash by more than 1.5x in the next 24 months. In addition, the company would generate surplus cash even if EBITDA were to decline by 30% relative to our base case. Further supporting Fibria's liquidity profile is our view that the company has a generally satisfactory standing in credit markets and sound banking relationships, allowing it to negotiate early covenants that would only be applicable if it lost investment-grade status. Fibria also has a prudent risk management strategy and financial discipline, which includes the anticipated concerns on debt tolerance, some capex postponement related to Horizonte 2 and the mapping of working-capital movements in order to sustain liquidity when pulp prices were depressed. Principal liquidity sources: Cash balances as of September 30, 2017 of R$6.5 billion; Estimated operating cash generation after taxes and interests of about R$5.0 billion; and Committed credit lines of around R$1.8 billion. Principal liquidity uses: Capex of R$4.0 billion in 2018 and R$3.4 billion in 2019; Short-term debt maturities of R$1.6 billion; Working capital outflows between R$300 million and R$500 million; and Expected dividend payout of R$300 million in 2018 and R$500 million in Outlook The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Fibria will generate solid cash flow from operations after the successful ramp-up of Horizonte 2 mill, which should support adjusted debt to EBITDA of 2.0x-2.5x and FFO to debt above 30% over the next two years, even in case of shareholder-friendly initiatives. Although we expect Fibria to remain exposed to pulp prices and currency volatility, we see the company as committed to a leverage tolerance boundary consistent with an investment-grade level. Downside scenario We could lower the ratings on Fibria in the next two years if leverage measures deteriorate due to a weaker pulp market, with prices 25% below current spot rates following weaker demand from Asia or new unexpected capacities. This would result in Fibria's adjusted debt-to-ebitda ratio increasing to 3.0x-3.5x and its FFO-to-debt ratio dropping to 20%-25%. We could also lower the ratings if debt increases due to aggressive shareholder remuneration or an acquisition with poor prospects of deleveraging. The ratings could also be pressured if the company doesn't demonstrate the financial flexibility to overcome currency or pulp price movements that impair NOVEMBER 8,

6 its cash flow generation. Upside scenario Although unlikely as long as Fibria is heavily exposed to the volatile pulp market, we could raise the ratings within the next couple of years if we expect that the company will sustain adjusted debt to EBITDA below 1.5x. This could occur if the company uses FOCF to permanently reduce debt and we consider the likelihood of leveraging events such as a large acquisition, organic investments, or share repurchases to be low. It would also depend on Brazil's T&C movements, since we currently cap the ratings at one notch above the T&C. Ratings Score Snapshot Corporate credit rating: BBB-/Stable/-- Business risk: Satisfactory Country risk: Moderately high Industry risk: Moderately high Competitive position: Satisfactory Financial risk: Significant Cash flow/leverage: Significant Anchor: bbb- Modifiers Diversification/portfolio effect: Neutral (no impact) Capital structure: Neutral (no impact) Liquidity: Strong (no impact) Financial policy: Neutral (no impact) Management and governance: Satisfactory (no impact) Comparable rating analysis: Neutral (no impact) Related Criteria Criteria - Corporates - General: Reflecting Subordination Risk In Corporate Issue Ratings, Sept. 21, 2017 General Criteria: S&P Global Ratings' National And Regional Scale Mapping Tables, Aug. 14, 2017 Criteria - Corporates - General: Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Dec. 16, 2014 General Criteria: National And Regional Scale Credit Ratings, Sept. 22, 2014 Criteria - Corporates - Industrials: Key Credit Factors For The Forest And Paper Products Industry, Feb. 12, 2014 General Criteria: Methodology: Industry Risk, Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, NOVEMBER 8,

7 Nov. 19, 2013 Criteria - Corporates - General: Corporate Methodology: Ratios And Adjustments, Nov. 19, 2013 Criteria - Corporates - General: Corporate Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Ratings Above The Sovereign--Corporate And Government Ratings: Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 19, 2013 General Criteria: Methodology: Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities And Insurers, Nov. 13, 2012 General Criteria: Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks, Sept. 14, 2009 Ratings List Fibria Overseas Finance Ltd. Senior Unsecured Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action To From Fibria Celulose S.A. Corporate Credit Rating BBB-/Stable/-- BBB-/Negative/-- Senior Unsecured BBB- BBB- Certain terms used in this report, particularly certain adjectives used to express our view on rating relevant factors, have specific meanings ascribed to them in our criteria, and should therefore be read in conjunction with such criteria. Please see Ratings Criteria at for further information. Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on the S&P Global Ratings' public website at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. NOVEMBER 8,

8 Copyright 2017 by Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an as is basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P s opinions, analyses and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw or suspend such acknowledgment at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, (free of charge), and and (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at STANDARD & POOR S, S&P and RATINGSDIRECT are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC. NOVEMBER 8,

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