Qatar Update: A Bright Economic Outlook

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1 December 29 Report Series Qatar Update: A Bright Economic Outlook Executive Summary Bolstered by rising production of LNG and associated natural gas liquids, the Qatari economy has been able to ride out the global economic storm and post real GDP growth of an estimated 9. percent in 29. This is projected to accelerate to 18 percent and 13 percent in respectively as new LNG trains come on stream and the government s robust counter cyclical fiscal policy continues to boost economic activity. Recent events in Dubai are not expected to have a significant impact on Qatar s economic prospects. With increasing revenue flows from hydrocarbon exports and immediate access to around $1 billion in funds raised through sovereign bond issues during 29, the government is well placed to advance its development and diversification agenda during Spending on infrastructure, construction and public wages is likely to rise rapidly, stimulating robust growth in the non-hydrocarbons sector. Boosted by rising LNG and NGL output and recovering oil prices, government revenues are projected to surge to almost $5 billion a year. This will push the fiscal surplus from an estimated 2 percent of GDP in 29/1 to 7. percent in 211/12, despite large projected increases in capital spending directed mainly at construction and infrastructure. The current account balance is expected to record a similar trend with surpluses rising back to over 2 percent of GDP in This will help boost official reserves and other external assets, including those held by the Qatar Investment Authority, ensuring that Qatar maintains a substantial net external creditor position despite recent increases in external debt. Office of the Chief Economist Economics Department Samba Financial Group P.O. Box 833, Riyadh 1121 Saudi Arabia ChiefEconomist@samba.com ; Ext. 182 (Riyadh) (London) This and other publications can be Downloaded from Although facing some pressure from rising non-performing loans and deflated asset prices, Qatari banks remain sound and have continued to post profits during the year. However, year-on-year credit growth has slowed as credit standards have been tightened and efforts made to strengthen balance sheets. Nonetheless, increasing government spending is boosting confidence and should create opportunities for sustained credit growth of around 15-2 percent through Prices are expected to decline by an annual average of percent this year, mainly as a result of a sharp drop in rents. This reflects the downturn underway in the real estate sector which will probably linger well into 21, dampening overall inflation prospects. However, significant inflationary pressures could emerge from surging external inflows, higher public spending, increased commodity prices and a weak dollar, and we project inflation will rise to percent by 211.

2 Jan-8 Mar-8 May-8 Jul-8 Sep-8 Nov-8 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-9 Q1 8 Q2 8 Q3 8 Q 8 Q1 9 Q e 21f 211f e 21f 211f December Source: QP; Samba 1, Source: PFC; Samba 55% 5% -5% Source: Qatar Statistics Authority Qatar: LNG Production (million tonnes per year) Qatar: Crude & NGL ( bd) NGL International Oil and Gas Prices Crude Natural Gas Future (Dec-9 delivery; $/mmbtu; lhs) Oil price (WTI, $/bbl; rhs) Qatar: GDP at current prices (annual percent change) GDP Construction Oil & Gas Government Qatar: One of the fastest growing economies in the world in 29 Bolstered by rising LNG and associated natural gas liquids (NGL) output, the Qatari economy has been able to ride out the global economic storm during 29 and post real GDP growth of an estimated 9. percent. This has been driven by the combination of rising hydrocarbons output and increased public spending which has helped sustain a strongly positive momentum in the nonoil sector. However, strains remain in the real estate sector which has suffered from a sharp decline in prices and, despite robust government support (see box), banking activity has slowed considerably with annual credit growth dropping from over 5 percent to around 1 percent this year. While economic growth in constant prices has remained strong, Qatar has not escaped the impact of a steep drop in average oil and gas prices in 29. Even with the recovery in the second half, at an estimated average of $2/b, oil prices are down by about 35 percent over last year, and gas prices have suffered larger declines. This has seriously affected nominal oil and gas GDP which, according to recently released data, declined by around 2 percent in the second half of 29 compared with the same period last year. While the non-oil and gas sector grew by 1. percent - led by strong increases in the finance, insurance and real estate sector, and in construction this was not enough to prevent a 2 percent drop in overall GDP in the first half of the year. We expect that stronger oil prices and increasing hydrocarbons production will boost overall nominal GDP in the second half of 29, although at an estimated $85 billion the total will still be down by about 15 percent. Qatar: Summary Economic Projections e 21f 211f Nominal GDP ($ bn) Real GDP (% change) Hydrocarbon GDP Non-hydrocarbon GDP CPI inflation (% change) Hydrocarbon exports ($ bn) C/A balance (% GDP) External debt (% GDP) Fiscal balance (% GDP) Official reserves ($ bn) Memoranda: Oil price (WTI; $/b) Crude oil prod (m b/d) Nat gas prod (m boe/d) World GDP growth (% pa) US Fed Funds Rate Source: IIF, Central Bank, Samba Back to double digit growth in The outlook for the next couple of years is bright. Three new 7.8 million tonnes a year (mt/y) LNG trains are expected to come on stream, while those which started operations during late 29 should be producing at close to full capacity. Overall LNG output is expected to rise from about mt/y in 29 to over 75 mt/y by 212, with much of the increase occurring in 21. Most of 2

3 Sep-9 25/ 2/7 27/8e 28/9f 29/1f 21/11f 211/12f % December 29 Petrochem icals $9.9bn Refining $1.9bn Power $15.2bn Oil & gas $28.bn Qatar: Projects $212.5bn Other $8.3bn Water & waste $9bn Source: MeedProjects QR million 2 1 Manufactu ring 7% Governme nt services 9% Constructi on $.5bn Infrastruct ure $.3bn Qatar: 28 GDP, $1 billion Other 8% Constructi on 5% Finance & real estate 1% Source: Qatar Statistics Authority Qatar: Central Government Balance Oil & gas 1% 12 8 the output is already contracted for export, and the rest will be sold on the open market. Accompanying this expanded LNG capacity will be additional NGL production (likely to be in the region of 15, b/d), which will also mainly be exported, and an expected pick up in oil output as OPEC gradually eases quotas. While world gas prices may remain muted due to a relative abundance of supply, oil prices are projected to increase to an average of $75/b in 21 and $85/b in 211, and this will provide a further boost to earnings. All together, the expected surge in hydrocarbons production and associated revenues will help propel real GDP growth to 18 percent in 21 and 13 percent in 211, with nominal GDP rising to $135 billion, equivalent to a projected $8, per capita. Growing hydrocarbons wealth will boost other sectors With large future revenue flows and immediate access to around $1 billion in funds raised through sovereign bond issues during 29, the government is well placed to advance its development agenda and diversification efforts during Spending on infrastructure, construction and public wages is likely to rise rapidly, stimulating robust growth in the non-hydrocarbons sector. Construction activity in particular is expected to surge with over $ billion projects currently planned or underway according to data from Meedprojects, out of a total project pipeline of $212.5 billion (see chart). The financial sector is also expected to post sustained growth, with a modest pick-up in credit aided by resumed population growth, as increased project activity attracts workers, and rising per capital incomes. However, credit growth is unlikely to return to the rapid pre-crisis rates, and the real estate sector could remain a drag on the economy as anticipated oversupply in 21 dampens prospects and prices. Fiscal and external positions are healthy Revenue Fiscal Balance (rhs) Source: IIF; Samba Expenditure Qatar: Official Foreign Exchange Reserves ($ billion) Source: Qatar Central Bank Government revenues have been boosted by the recovery in oil prices and rising LNG and condensate output in the second half of this year. Further gains are likely over the next few years as both oil prices and production/exports continue to rise. The resultant surge in revenues to almost $5 billion a year will help raise the fiscal surplus from an estimated 2 percent of GDP in 29/1 to 7. percent in 211/12, despite large increases in projected capital spending directed mainly at construction and infrastructure. Qatar: Government Finances $ billion 28/9e 29/1f 21/11f 211/12f Revenue Expenditure Fiscal balance % of GDP Fiscal balance Domestic debt External debt Source: IIF; Samba (e: estimates; f: forecast) 3

4 May-8 Jul-8 Sep-8 Nov-8 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Jan-9 Feb-9 Mar-9 Apr-9 May-9 Jun-9 Jul-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Dec December Qatar: External Debt The current account balance is expected to record a similar trend with surpluses rising back to over 2 percent of GDP in These will help boost official reserves and assets held by various government entities such as the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), the Qatar Foundation Fund, the Oil Stabilization Fund and the Health and Education Fund. No publicly available information exists on the size of these assets, but they are thought to currently stand at around $1 billion in total, ensuring that Qatar maintains a net external creditor position despite recent increases in external debt. Source: IIF; Samba Total ($ bln) % GDP On top of these sizeable revenues and foreign assets, the government has raised $1 billion through sovereign bond issuance during 29 giving it a considerable war chest to support its development spending plans and to provide contingency funding to state owned entities if necessary. Despite the scale of the borrowing Qatar s sovereign external debt remains relatively low at around 1 percent of GDP, and this ratio is likely to decline rapidly as GDP growth accelerates next year. Total public and private external debt will likely peak as a share of GDP at over 8 percent in 29, reflecting new sovereign and private borrowing and the decline in nominal GDP, but will similarly fall back sharply thereafter Qatar: 5Y CDS (basis points) External perception of Qatar s credit rating remains very strong The growing strength of Qatar s public and external finance is a key factor behind its investment grade sovereign credit ratings (Aa2: Moody s, AA-: S& Ps), and has helped drive down credit default swap spreads sharply over the course of the year (market concerns over Dubai have recently pushed spreads up by about 1bps). This has allowed the government to access international capital markets at increasingly favourable rates and establish a benchmark yield curve for Qatari corporates. The perceived attractiveness of Qatar credit can be seen in the $7 billion November sovereign bond issuance which was the largest emerging market bond on record. Despite its size the issue was reportedly three times oversubscribed, and secured rates of 185 bps over US Treasuries for the $3.5 billion 5 year bond, 195 bps for the $2.5 billion 1 year issue, and 215 bps for the $1 billion 3-year tranche. Banks have weathered the storm and credit growth remains solid 2 Qatar : Domestic Credit & Deposit Growth (YoY; percent) While under some pressure from rising non-performing loans and deflated asset prices, Qatari banks remain sound and have continued to post profits during the year. The government has taken exceptional measures to provide support and boost capital leaving banks well placed to withstand any volatility on their balance sheets. However, banks have tightened credit standards and are looking to strengthen their balance sheets, contributing to a sharp slowdown in credit growth from the extraordinary levels of 27-early 28. Despite this, domestic credit growth was still running at around 15 percent y- o-y in September (one of the highest rates in the GCC), and should post an end year gain of around 1 percent. Source: CBQ Domestic credit Deposits Looking ahead, we expect that increasing government spending will continue to boost confidence and create opportunities for sustained credit expansion through 211. In addition, growing domestic liquidity and improving access to

5 23-Q 2-Q2 2-Q 25-Q2 25-Q 2-Q2 2-Q 27-Q2 27-Q 28-Q2 28-Q 29-Q2 Jul-8 Aug-8 Oct-8 Dec-8 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jun-9 Aug-9 Oct-9 Nov-9 Jan- May- Sep- Jan-7 May-7 Sep-7 Jan-8 May-8 Sep-8 Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 December Oil Prices and M2 Growth wholesale funding and capital markets (Commercial Bank of Qatar successfully issued a $1. billion bond in October) should raise deposits and bring the loans to deposit ratio back down towards the central bank limit of 9 percent (as of September the aggregate ratio was still holding at 15 percent). Overall, we expect credit growth will accelerate to around 15-2 percent during a more sustainable rate than the overheated 5 percent plus during 27-8, which contributed to soaring inflation and pumped up real estate prices. Source: QCB; Bloomberg; Samba M2 % change YoY (lhs) Oil $/b (rhs) Box: Liquidity measures taken by the central bank and government The QIA and the government have announced plans to spend $5.3 billion on 1-2 percent of the capital of Qatari banks listed on the Doha stock market; $1.2 billion on buying listed shares within the investment portfolio of local banks to bolster their books after a slump in the stock market, and $.1 billion on acquiring the real estate portfolios of nine local banks. Liquidity is returning 12 8 Qatar: Stock Markeet Performance (DSM 2 Index) Broad money (essentially cash and bank deposits) growth has begun to revive following the sharp decline in the early part of the year which led to contractions on a y-o-y basis in April-June. Data for July show a resumption of positive y-o-y growth in M2, and we expect this to be sustained through the rest of the year in line with recovering oil prices (and hence revenues), and increasing public spending. Overall broad money should grow by around 15 percent in 29 and accelerate in as public revenues surge. The stock market has rallied Source: Qatar Statistics Authority Qatar: YoY Inflation (percent) CPI Rent, Fuel & Power After a difficult start to the year the stock market has rebounded strongly from its first quarter lows in response to government interventions to support banks and recovering oil prices. With government revenues and growth strengthening, investor confidence is returning and we expect further gains encouraged by improving macroeconomic conditions. Evidence of improving sentiment in Qatar can be seen in the markets quick rebound from an initial 8 percent slump when the Dubai debt story first broke. Shares have subsequently rallied and, as of December 7, had recovered almost all lost ground to post a percent year to-date gain. With economic prospects remaining strongly positive, there is scope for a sustained rally through 21. Correction in real estate is driving (temporary) deflation Inflation data for the third quarter of 29 confirm the deflationary trend apparent in Qatar with a 7. percent decline in the consumer price index (CPI) over the same period last year. The principal driver of the deflation is the real estate sector where rents have fallen steeply resulting in an almost 15 percent drop in the rent component of the CPI (which has a 32 percent weight) over the same period. For the year as a whole average annual inflation is expected to come in at - percent (with an end-year deflation rate of around - 7 percent), a sharp reversal from the 15 percent increase recorded in 28. 5

6 Jul-7 Sep-7 Nov-7 Jan-8 Mar-8 May-8 Jul-8 Sep-8 Nov-8 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-9 Apr-7 Jun-7 Aug-7 Oct-7 Dec-7 Feb-8 Apr-8 Jun-8 Aug-8 Oct-8 Dec-8 Feb-9 Apr-9 Jun-9 Aug Nov-9 December 29 2 Source: CBQ; Bloomberg Qatar & US Policy Interest Rates (percent) Qatar: Non-resident Bank Deposits ($bn) Source: Central Bank of Qatar 15 Qatari Riyal: 3M Forward QMR lending rate QMR deposit rate US Fed Funds Rate Given the volume of new housing supply expected to come on stream in 21-11, the real estate sector is expected to remain weak, and this will continue to dampen the overall inflationary outlook. Countering this will be the projected improvement in growth and liquidity, and increasing public sector spending. There may also be some imported inflationary pressures as commodity, and particularly food prices, rise as the global economy recovers. The state of the US dollar will also have an impact, with any weakening adding to inflationary pressures. Overall we project that inflation will rise to 3.5 percent in 21, accelerating to percent in 211. Monetary and exchange rate policies unlikely to change Currently Qatar s Monetary Rates (QMR) rates are out of line with those of the US Federal reserve. The QMR deposit rate is currently 2 percent and the lending rate 5.5 percent, against the Fed Funds rate of -.25 percent. Normally under the exchange rate peg to the US dollar there would be only a small spread between rates. However, when the US Fed began to reduce rates in 28, the Qatar central bank did not follow suit due to its concern over then soaring credit growth and inflation. Now that credit growth has slowed sharply and inflation turned to deflation, there could be scope to cut rates to bring them in line with the US. However, we do not see this happening as concerns remain over potential inflationary pressures: from the large increase in hydrocarbons revenues expected next year, the continuation of a strongly expansionary fiscal policy, and a weaker US dollar. Thus Qatar policy rates are expected to remain unchanged, with any eventual tightening in the Fed Fund rates left to reduce the current spread with the QMR. This policy carries some risks in that hot money inflows may be attracted into Qatar by the relatively higher deposit rates available, aligned with the exchange rate peg to the US dollar, and this could complicate monetary policy. It is noteworthy that non-resident deposits with commercial banks have almost doubled since end-28. On the question of the exchange rate peg, while we note that there could again be some divergence between the policy needs of the US and GCC states (particularly in 21 when US policy is expected to remain highly accommodative), we do not see any change in the exchange rate regimes until the introduction of a GCC single currency. This could still take some time to implement and, in the first instance at least, is also expected to maintain the peg. We thus do not expect a change in the exchange rate regime in Within this context the authorities will have limited tools to deal with any potential build up of excess liquidity as occurred in Changes in bank reserve requirements and issuance of certificates of deposit are an option. It is also possible that having established a yield curve for international debt markets, the authorities may also look to sell local currency bonds. In addition, a large proportion of the expected current account and fiscal surpluses are expected to be channeled into savings and investment abroad rather than pumped into the local economy.

7 December 29 Keith Savard Director of Economic Research James Reeve Senior Economist Andrew B. Gilmour Senior Economist Raza A. Agha Research Economist Touheed Ahmed Management Associate Disclaimer This publication is based on information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable and up to date at the time of publication. However, SAMBA is unable to accept any liability whatsoever for the accuracy or completeness of its contents or for the consequences of any reliance which may be place upon the information it contains. Additionally, the information and opinions contained herein: 1. Are not intended to be a complete or comprehensive study or to provide advice and should not be treated as a substitute for specific advice and due diligence concerning individual situations; 2. Are not intended to constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument or engage in any trading strategy; and/or 3. Are not intended to constitute a guarantee of future performance. Accordingly, no representation or warranty is made or implied, in fact or in law, including but not limited to the implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose notwithstanding the form (e.g., contract, negligence or otherwise), in which any legal or equitable action may be brought against SAMBA. Samba Financial Group P.O. Box 833, Riyadh 1121 Saudi Arabia 7

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