Oil & Gas Industry & Market Statistics

Transcription

1 Oil & Gas Industry & Market Statistics RIVINGTON HOLDINGS, LLC HOUSTON, TEXAS Market information presented herein is based on 1/13/2017 closing prices. The information provided herein is believed to be reliable, however, Rivington Holdings, LLC makes no representation or warranty as to its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. If you would prefer not to receive this message, please reply to this stating your desire to unsubscribe and you will not receive future messages Main Street, Suite 1500, Houston, TX

2 Commodity Prices Industry Data Commodity Prices (1/13/2017) Crude Oil ($ per Bbl) Strip Price Near Month Year NYMEX WTI Crude Oil ($ / BBL) $52.37 $55.08 $56.33 $56.11 NYMEX HH Natural Gas ($ / MMBTU) $3.42 $3.45 $3.13 $3.06 $70 Analyst Estimates Q NYMEX WTI Crude Oil ($ / BBL) $52.00 $55.00 $60.00 $60.00 NYMEX HH Natural Gas ($ / MMBTU) $3.28 $3.20 $3.13 $3.19 Commercial Bank Price NYMEX WTI Crude Oil ($ / BBL) $47.00 $47.00 $48.00 $50.00 NYMEX HH Natural Gas ($ / MMBTU) $2.90 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 Crude Oil DJ Basin Spot Price $47.75 WTI Discount ($4.62) SJV Kern River $42.07 ($10.30) Williston Basin Sweet $40.00 ($12.37) Wyoming Sweet $43.27 ($9.10) West Texas Sour $50.67 ($1.70) NGL Component Prices Ethane ($ / GAL) Near Month $ $ $ $0.33 Propane ($ / GAL) $0.73 $0.68 $0.66 $0.64 Normal Butane ($ / GAL) $0.98 $0.84 N/A N/A Iso-Butane ($ / GAL) $0.96 $0.88 N/A N/A Natural Gasoline ($ / GAL) $1.11 $1.20 $1.21 N/A Differentials Natural Gas CIG (Rockies) Near Month ($0.20) 2017 ($0.33) 2018 ($0.36) 2019 ($0.37) HSC (Houston) ($0.13) ($0.06) ($0.01) $0.01 NGPL (TX/OK) ($0.15) ($0.12) ($0.10) ($0.08) Panhandle (TX/OK) ($0.17) ($0.30) ($0.33) ($0.34) TETCO (South TX) ($0.12) ($0.07) ($0.02) $0.02 Permian Basin (West TX) ($0.22) ($0.31) ($0.34) ($0.34) Waha (West TX) ($0.19) ($0.21) ($0.20) ($0.20) US Stocks of Crude Oil (MMBls) 12/30/2016 1/6/2017 Change 1/1/2016 Total US Natural Gas Storage (Bcf) 12/30/2016 1/6/2017 Change 12/31/2015 Total 3,311 3,160 (151) 3,523 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 NYMEX WTI Strip Analyst Forecast Commercial Bank Price Natural Gas ($ per Mcf) US Rig Count Oil 1/6/ /13/ Change (7) 1/8/ Gas Miscellaneous (6) 664 Refinery Statistics 12/30/2016 1/6/2017 Change 1/1/2016 Utilization (%) $2.50 $2.00 NYMEX HH Strip Analyst Forecast Commercial Bank Price 2

3 Domestic Upstream Merger & Acquisition Prices (Announced Corporate & Asset Transactions > $10 million with Proved Reserves) 1Q-10 2Q-10 3Q-10 4Q-10 1Q-11 2Q-11 3Q-11 4Q-11 1Q-12 2Q-12 3Q-12 4Q-12 1Q-13 2Q-13 3Q-13 4Q-13 1Q-14 2Q-14 3Q-14 4Q-14 1Q-15 2Q-15 3Q-15 4Q-15 1Q-16 2Q-16 3Q-16 Avg Price Per BOE $12.30 $16.44 $15.03 $10.19 $9.65 $9.20 $8.44 $9.29 $10.37 $11.13 $22.47 $18.56 $13.23 $13.25 $14.94 $16.34 $18.10 $13.99 $14.44 $14.84 $14.28 $11.62 $9.74 $7.71 $12.41 $7.55 $8.53 Avg Price Per BOEPD $84,782 $61,592 $84,723 $53,668 $54,865 $70,660 $51,196 $58,777 $47,206 $67,212 $71,125 $80,401 $73,001 $52,956 $69,087 $83,278 $79,368 $77,553 $73,318 $62,933 $51,796 $40,589 $39,029 $47,109 $35,547 $24,046 $29,870 3

4 Domestic Upstream Merger & Acquisition Prices (Announced Corporate & Asset Transactions > $10 million with Proved Reserves) 3Q 11 excludes BHP Billiton / Petrohawk 4Q 12 excludes Freeport- McMoRan/Plains 4Q 14 excludes Repsol/Talisman 3Q 14 excludes Encana/Athlon 1Q-10 2Q-10 3Q-10 4Q-10 1Q-11 2Q-11 3Q-11 4Q-11 1Q-12 2Q-12 3Q-12 4Q-12 1Q-13 2Q-13 3Q-13 4Q-13 1Q-14 2Q-14 3Q-14 4Q-14 1Q-15 2Q-15 3Q-15 4Q-15 1Q-16 2Q-16 3Q-16 Total Value ($MM) $8,903 $13,154 $7,652 $16,759 $9,386 $8,257 $5,445 $17,732 $15,117 $8,257 $16,249 $20,366 $10,700 $6,266 $9,871 $11,934 $11,690 $13,178 $16,996 $9,563 $835 $5,810 $5,299 $1,612 $1,724 $7,802 $9,763 O&G Value ($MM) $7,308 $11,487 $5,717 $13,304 $8,553 $7,360 $1,676 $17,493 $12,087 $7,646 $14,758 $17,197 $9,713 $5,947 $8,522 $10,714 $8,726 $8,255 $7,917 $3,481 $698 $5,753 $3,252 $1,217 $777 $6,201 $6,368 Deal Count

5 E&P Valuations Company Statistics Small Cap Mid Cap Large Cap (Mkt Cap < $1Bn) (Mkt Cap $1Bn $5Bn) (Mkt Cap > $5Bn) Universe 18 Companies 16 Companies 16 Companies Valuation EV / LTM EBITDAX 8.3x 13.3x 15.8x EV / Annualized 3Q-16 EBITDAX 9.8x 12.4x 13.2x EV / Proved BOE $11.10 $14.44 $20.26 EV / Producing BOE per day $40,860 $51,130 $83,364 LTM Operating Statistics ($/BOE) Revenue $20.07 $21.92 $22.17 Operating Expense $9.85 $9.48 $8.69 General & Administrative $4.17 $2.66 $2.88 DD&A $12.43 $11.06 $ Q-16 Operating Statistics ($/BOE) Revenue $22.34 $23.14 $25.34 Operating Expense $9.50 $9.95 $8.66 General & Administrative $4.24 $2.87 $2.94 DD&A $11.20 $10.24 $13.34 Credit Statistics Debt / LTM EBITDAX 5.9x 4.9x 2.9x Debt / Annualized 3Q-16 EBITDAX 7.0x 4.6x 2.5x Debt / Proved BOE $7.84 $5.31 $3.78 *Note that all calculations represent the weighted average of each category. Please refer to the next page for a list of companies in the sample. LTM Per Unit Operating Metrics EV / Annualized Quarterly EBITDAX $60 $ x $54 $ x $48 $ x $42 $ x $ / BOE $36 $30 $24 $18 $6 $5 $4 $3 $ / Mcfe 12.0 x 10.0 x 8.0 x 6.0 x $12 $2 4.0 x $6 $1 2.0 x $0 SMALL MID LARGE $0 0.0 x 4Q Q Q Q 2016 Opex G&A DD&A SMALL MID LARGE 5

6 Notes & Contacts E&P Company Valuation and Metrics Data used in calculations was obtained from SEC filings. The companies in each category are listed below. Small Cap (Mkt Cap < $1Bn) Mid Cap (Mkt Cap $1Bn $5Bn) Large Cap (Mkt Cap > $5Bn) Abraxas Petroleum Corp. Jones Energy, Inc. Callon Petroleum Co. Matador Resources Company Anadarko Petroleum Co. Diamondback Energy, Inc. Approach Resources Inc. Legacy Reserves LP Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. PDC Energy Antero Resources Corp. EOG Resources, Inc. Bill Barrett Corp. Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. Chesapeake Energy Corp. QEP Resources, Inc. Apache Corp. Newfield Exploration Co. Bonanza Creek Energy, Inc. Petroquest Energy Inc. Denbury Resources, Inc. Rice Energy Inc. Cabot Oil and Gas Corp. Noble Energy Inc. Comstock Resources, Inc Rex Energy Corp. EP Energy Corp. RSP Permian, Inc. Cimarex Energy Co. Parsley Energy, Inc. Eclipse Resources Corp. Ring Energy Inc. Extraction Oil & Gas Inc. SM Energy Co. Concho Resources Inc. Pioneer Natural Resources Co. EV Energy Partners LP Sanchez Energy Corp. Gulfport Energy Corp. Whiting Petroleum Corp. Continental Resources, Inc. Range Resources Corp. EXCO Resources, Inc. Stone Energy Corp. Laredo Petroleum Holdings WPX Energy, Inc. Devon Energy Corp. Southwestern Energy Co. Halcón Resources Corp W&T Offshore, Inc. Calculations - Natural Gas volumes have been converted to BOE based on a (6:1) conversion ratio. - LTM operating period from 10/1/2015 9/30/ EBITDAX calculated as Operating Income + DD&A + (Non Cash) MTM Hedging Positions + Exploration Expense + Other Non-recurring (Non Cash) items. - Market Cap Mkt Cap share price x shares outstanding. - Enterprise Value EV Market Cap + Preferred Equity + Minority Interest + Total Debt - Cash and Equivalents. - Debt Long Term Debt + Short Term Debt - Net Working Capital, reported in most recent SEC filing. - Proved Reserves proved reserves reported in K filing. - Daily Production production volumes in most recent quarter / days in period. - Revenue Per BOE revenues derived exclusively from oil & gas sales / production. - Opex Per BOE LOE, production tax and other operating expenses / production. Company statistics and charts represent the weighted average of each category. Market Cap groupings were set based on 9/30/2016 closing prices. Analyst Estimates for Oil and Gas Prices composite average of 72 financial institutions and research groups reported by Bloomberg. Commercial Bank Price Bank Pricing observed by Rivington Holdings, LLC. Natural Gas Differentials Implied Differential to NYMEX based on Regional Basis Swaps. EV/ Quarterly EBITDAX Chart EV is based on the last trading day of each quarter. Sources: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Baker Hughes Rig Count, SEC filings, The Rocky Mountain Oil Journal, PLS Inc., John S. Herold, Inc., and Bloomberg. Chris Wagner (713) cwagner@rivingtoncap.com Scott Logan (713) slogan@rivingtoncap.com Rick Makin (978) rmakin@rivingtoncap.com Bobby Long (713) rlong@rivingtoncap.com David Johnson (713) djohnson@rivingtoncap.com Mark Olivier (713) molivier@rivingtoncap.com Bryce Ramey (713) bramey@rivingtoncap.com The information provided herein is believed to be reliable, however, Rivington Holdings, LLC makes no representation or warranty as to its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. If you would prefer not to receive this message, please reply to this stating your desire to unsubscribe and you will not receive future messages. 6