Russian Natural Gas Canadian Tar Sands Offshore Drilling

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Russian Natural Gas Canadian Tar Sands Offshore Drilling"

Transcription

1 Russian Natural Gas Canadian Tar Sands Offshore Drilling By Kurt H. Wulff Springfield, Massachusetts February 15, 2006

2 Summary and Recommendation Buy Gazprom (OGZPF) Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COSWF) Devon Energy (DVN), Encore Acquisition (EAC), ConocoPhillips (COP) Why Global Growth Commodity Price Upside 2010 Oil $150 a barrel Natural Gas $30 a mmbtu

3 Global Growth China, India, Eastern Europe Race for Resources Environmental Quality

4 World Energy Demand Million Barrels Equivalent Daily Total Natural Gas Oil Coal Hydro/Nuclear Biomass

5 Supply Dynamics Close to peak oil production Two-thirds of peak natural gas production Half world oil and gas reserves in five countries Russia has more natural gas than Saudi Arabia has oil

6 World Oil and Gas Reserves Billion Barrels Equivalent Natural Gas Oil Total Russia Saudi Arabia Iran Qatar Iraq

7 Large Fields Peaked Wall Street Journal 2/9/06

8 Refining Expands Oil Supply Light Sweet Supply Most Valuable Refining Upgrades Heavy Sour Need Refining Capacity for Oil Sands

9 LNG Expands Natural Gas Supply (million barrels daily) Asia % % Europe % % U.S % % % % Source: International Energy Agency, Oil and Gas Journal, McDep Associates

10 Cleanest Fuel and Total Energy (Million Barrels Equivalent Daily) 2015 Total Energy Conventional Natural Gas Liquefied Natural Gas

11 Six-Year Commodity Price Meter Indicator of Resource Value Trend Oil 40 week North American Gas 40 wk Dollars per Barrel /29/03 3/29/04 6/28/04 9/27/04 12/27/04 3/28/05 6/27/05 9/26/05 12/23/ Dollars per Million Btu

12 Oil/Natural Gas Futures Natural Gas/Oil (mcf/bbl) 12/28/2001 3/28/2002 6/28/2002 9/28/ /28/2002 3/28/2003 6/28/2003 9/28/ /28/2003 3/28/2004 6/28/2004 9/28/ /28/2004 3/28/2005 6/28/2005 9/28/ /28/2005 Six-Year One-Year

13 One-Year Refining Crack Meter Indicator(?) of Refining Cash Flow and Earnings Trend New York 40 week /6/2006 1/6/2004 4/6/2004 7/6/ /6/2004 1/6/2005 4/6/2005 7/6/ /6/2005 Dollars Per Barrel

14 Canadian Tar Sands World Conventional Oil Reserves 1.2 Trillion Barrels Recoverable Canadian Oil Sands 175 Billion Barrels World Oil Production 84 Million Barrels Daily Canadian Oil Sands Production 1 mmbd Now, 2.7 mmbd 2015

15

16 Russian Natural Gas Underpriced (Dollars a mmbtu) Six-Year Oil Equivalent Six-Year NG Futures Gazprom to Europe Gazprom to Ukraine Gazprom to Russia

17 Ukraine Siphons Russian Gas

18 Oil Spill Ignited Environmentalism I am amazed at the publicity for the loss of a few birds. Fred L. Hartley, Santa Barbara, California, 1969 Focus Today on Coal Global Warming Mercury Untold Carcinogens

19 Coal: Environmental Target We burn too much coal The dirty fuel is 24% of primary energy Coal should be gasified, not burned Displacing coal a high value use of oil and natural gas

20 McDep Energy Stock Groups Million Dollars Market Cap Mega Cap Producer/Refiner Large Cap Producer Small Cap Producer Income

21 McDep Energy Stocks Domicile U.S. Canada Europe China Russia

22 Business Concentration (Percent) Natural Gas Oil Downstream ConocoPhillips Gazprom 100 * * Devon Energy Encore Acquisition Canadian Oil Sands Trust * 100 *

23 McDep Ratio Market Cap and Debt Present Value Mc Market Cap De Debt p Present Value of Natural Gas, Oil and Downstream Buy Low, Sell High

24 Producer/Refiner Rank by McDep Ratio Price Net ($/sh) Present Debt/ Symbol/ 14-Feb Value Present McDep Rating 2006 ($/sh) Value Ratio Kinder Morgan, Inc. KMI S Imperial Oil Limited (30%) IMO B Petro-Canada PCZ B Suncor Energy SU B Marathon Oil Corporation MRO B Norsk Hydro ASA NHY B PetroChina Company Ltd (1 PTR B Lukoil Oil Company LUKOY B Gazprom (50%) OGZPF B Total or Median

25 Gazprom (OGZPF) Produces 90% of Russian Natural Gas Price Controls Fading Away Multi-Fold Gain Characteristics Enterprise Value Now $200 billion Next Twelve Months Cash Flow - $32 billion Unlevered Multiple 6.2 times Natural Gas Price, Cash Flow, Could be 3-4x Long Life Could Double Multiple

26 Gazprom (OGZPF), cont d Ownership Aligned Government 51% A Million Russian Stockholders World s Largest Energy Stock Potentially Up to 35% to trade as American Depositary Receipts Ten-fold index weighting increase ahead Mr. Putin Chairman 2009?

27 Large Cap Independent Producer Rank by McDep Ratio Price Net ($/sh) Present Debt/ Symbol/ 14-Feb Value Present McDep Rating 2006 ($/sh) Value Ratio CNOOC Limited (29%) CEO B XTO Energy Inc. XTO B Encana Corporation ECA B Burlington Resources BR B Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY B Devon Energy Corporation DVN B Anadarko Petroleum Corp. APC B Total or Median

28 Devon Energy (DVN) Burlington Resources Peer Managed by Founder (1973) Net Present Value Presumes $50 Oil $10 Natural Gas Adjusted Reserve Life 8.6 Years Unlevered Cash Flow Multiple 3.9 times 64% Natural Gas, 36% Oil

29 Small Cap Independent Producer Rank by McDep Ratio Price Net ($/sh) Present Debt/ Symbol/ 14-Feb Value Present McDep Rating 2006 ($/sh) Value Ratio Berry Petroleum Company BRY B Encore Acquisition CompanEAC B Energy Partners Ltd. EPL B Cimarex Energy Company XEC B Total or Median

30 Encore Acquisition Company (EAC) Tertiary Recovery May Double Reserves Chairman Founder Past Success with Southland Royalty, San Juan Basin Royalty Trust, Permian Basin Royalty Trust, Cross Timbers Oil Company (now XTO Energy) and Cross Timbers Royalty Trust Enterprise Value $2.2 billion Adjusted Reserve Life 14.3 Years Unlevered Cash Flow Multiple 5.1 times

31 Mega Cap Rank by McDep Ratio Price Net ($/sh) Present Debt/ Symbol/ 14-Feb Value Present McDep Rating 2006 ($/sh) Value Ratio Mega Cap BP plc BP B Total S.A. TOT B Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM B Royal Dutch Shell plc RDS-A B ConocoPhillips COP B Chevron Corporation CVX B Total or Median

32 ConocoPhillips (COP) Natural Gas, Oil, Downstream 30,43,28 Includes Burlington Resources Low McDep Ratio 0.70 Long Life: Adjusted R/P 10.9 years Low Unlevered Cash Flow Multiple 4.1 Breakthrough CEO Largest San Juan Natural Gas Producer

33 Energy Income Stocks Rank by McDep Ratio Price Net ($/sh) Present Debt/ Symbol/ 14-Feb Value Present McDep Rating 2006 ($/sh) Value Ratio Kinder Morgan Energy PartnKMP S Kinder Morgan Managemen KMR S Enerplus Resources Fund ERF Pengrowth Energy Trust PGH Penn West Energy Trust PWTFF B San Juan Basin Royalty TrusSJT Canadian Oil Sands Trust (UCOSWF B Total or Median

34 Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COSWF) 35.5% Syncrude, Largest Oil Sands Plant Volume Expanding Now , , mbd Net Present Value Sensitive to Oil Price $50 oil, $136 NPV, $60 oil, $177 NPV Distribution C$12/unit 2007, 8+% yield Ultimate Volume 500 mbd for Thirty Years

35 Intellectual Challenges Politics Economics Engineering Science Geography Sociology Art Finance

36 Second in a Lifetime Opportunity Engineer with Chevron in San Francisco Studied UK Market for North Sea Natural Gas Wall Street 1971 San Juan Basin Natural Gas Producers Marathon, Cities Service, Getty, Gulf Takeovers Hugoton Natural Gas Producers déjà vu San Juan, Canada, China, Russia

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio February 15, Crude Awakening

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio February 15, Crude Awakening Crude Awakening Summary and Recommendation Declining production from Mexico s largest oil field, Cantarell, fortifies concerns about future oil supply. A timely discussion in the Wall Street Journal on

More information

Coal, China and Currency

Coal, China and Currency Coal, China and Currency Summary and Recommendation Explosive growth in coal burning in Asia from 2003 to 2005 has displaced a whopping ten million barrels equivalent daily of oil and gas. Instead of jawboning

More information

Quarterly Results and the Correlation

Quarterly Results and the Correlation Quarterly Results and the Correlation Summary and Recommendation During this cycle of quarterly earnings disclosures, we have referred to a correlation in our quick analyses for most rated stocks. Specifically,

More information

Oil and Gas Investment to 2010

Oil and Gas Investment to 2010 Oil and Gas Investment to 2010 By Kurt H. Wulff Boston, Massachusetts June 27, 2006 Summary and Recommendation Invest in oil and gas for the long-term Vision of $150 a barrel in 2010 Six-year oil futures

More information

Europe Bids Natural Gas Higher

Europe Bids Natural Gas Higher Europe Bids Natural Gas Higher Summary and Recommendation Rising futures prices for natural gas in Europe dramatize unrecognized value in the natural gas resources of buy-recommended Encana (ECA), XTO

More information

Enhance Performance with McDep Ratio

Enhance Performance with McDep Ratio Meter Reader Page 1 Enhance Performance with McDep Ratio Summary and Recommendation The McDep Energy Portfolio differentiates among buy recommendations in an attempt to be more represented in lowest McDep

More information

Global Natural Gas Scramble

Global Natural Gas Scramble Global Natural Gas Scramble Summary and Recommendation Attesting to global supply limitations, some energy prices have taken flight in Europe with the advent of colder weather. Current daily price for

More information

Meter Reader Page 1 A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio August 7, Buy Something

Meter Reader Page 1 A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio August 7, Buy Something Meter Reader Page 1 Buy Something Summary and Recommendation Because nothing has happened to change our long-term fundamental outlook from three weeks ago when the median buy recommendation was priced

More information

U.S./China Currency Devaluation Accelerates

U.S./China Currency Devaluation Accelerates Meter Reader Page 1 U.S./China Currency Devaluation Accelerates Summary and Recommendation Some of the recent action in stock price for buy-recommended PetroChina (PTR) and CNOOC Ltd. (CEO) seems to validate

More information

Own More Norsk Hydro, Less BP

Own More Norsk Hydro, Less BP Meter Reader Page 1 Own More Norsk Hydro, Less BP Summary and Recommendation Among European buy recommendations we raise our suggested weighting for Norsk Hydro (NHY) to 2.9% from 1.4% and lower it for

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio December 7, Canadian Income

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio December 7, Canadian Income Canadian Income Summary and Recommendation Reinstating our coverage of Enerplus Resources Fund (ERF) and Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGH) we see reasonable value and attractive income from Canadian oil and

More information

Meter Reader Page 1 A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio August 15, Unchanged Thesis

Meter Reader Page 1 A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio August 15, Unchanged Thesis Meter Reader Page 1 Unchanged Thesis Summary and Recommendation Despite a momentous oil shutdown in Alaska and a Hezbollah-Israeli war in the Middle East, our oil and gas investment thesis is unchanged.

More information

Meter Reader Page 1 A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio June 12, Kovykta Kontroversy

Meter Reader Page 1 A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio June 12, Kovykta Kontroversy Meter Reader Page 1 Kovykta Kontroversy Summary and Recommendation Compromise is the reasonable expectation for imminent resolution of the dispute between the Russian government and buy-recommended BP

More information

Light Oil Volume Peak

Light Oil Volume Peak Light Oil Volume Peak Summary and Recommendation The difference in price between Arab Light and Arab Heavy crude oil points to limited availability of raw material for clean energy at the same time environmental

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio November 23, Gold Rush!

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio November 23, Gold Rush! Gold Rush! Summary and Recommendation The accessibility of gold to investors widened greatly last week in the form of a new security, symbol GLD, launched on the New York Stock Exchange. We liken the significance

More information

Meter Reader Page 1 A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio September 25, The Long-Term Energy Squeeze

Meter Reader Page 1 A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio September 25, The Long-Term Energy Squeeze Meter Reader Page 1 The Long-Term Energy Squeeze Summary and Recommendation In Chapter 24 of The Age of Turbulence, Alan Greenspan reinforces our outlook for higher oil price to benefit our buy recommendations,

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio November 30, Steel Shortage

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio November 30, Steel Shortage Steel Shortage Summary and Recommendation Surprising stories of steel shortages provide another related indicator of a strong longterm outlook for the value of resources in Buy-recommended oil and gas

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks February 10, 2009

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks February 10, 2009 Optimism Creeping Back Summary and Recommendation With oil and gas stock prices gradually tracing a more positive price trend since the stock market low in October 2008, the three buy recommendations that

More information

The Case for Energy Investment

The Case for Energy Investment The Case for Energy Investment Summary and Recommendation We outline our current presentation that recommends energy stocks for real growth, inflation protection, deflation resistance and tax efficiency.

More information

Is Oil Price Too High?

Is Oil Price Too High? Is Oil Price Too High? Summary and Recommendation The $39 a barrel price indicated for light sweet crude oil in May 2004 implies a gain of 39% over cash price in May 2003, less than the 70% gain that might

More information

Buy Canadian Oil and Gas

Buy Canadian Oil and Gas Buy Canadian Oil and Gas Summary and Recommendation Buy-recommended (B1) Encana (ECA) and buy-rated (B3) Petro-Canada (PCZ), Suncor (SU) and Imperial Oil (IMO) offer high potential return, low McDep Ratio

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks May 18, 2010

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks May 18, 2010 European Oil for Contrarians Summary and Recommendation We classify buy recommendations Royal Dutch Shell, plc (RDS-A), Statoil ASA (STO), and Total S.A. (TOT) as Contrarian Buys to acknowledge that the

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks December 29, 2009

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks December 29, 2009 Woodside Petroleum Ltd. (WOPEY) Australian Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Symbol WOPEY Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 12/31/10 (US$mm) 2,900 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 2 Price (US$/sh)

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks March 2, 2010 Oil Growth of 70% to 2020 for COSWF

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks March 2, 2010 Oil Growth of 70% to 2020 for COSWF Oil Growth of 70% to 2020 for COSWF Summary and Recommendation Buy-recommended Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COSWF) confirmed last week that preliminary design work is underway to expand oil sands capacity

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks September 20, 2011

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks September 20, 2011 20% More Oil for the Buck Summary and Recommendation The long-term investment appeal of oil and gas stocks in a growing global economy is better today than five months ago when measured by the future physical

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio April 13, More Ratings Ahead

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio April 13, More Ratings Ahead More Ratings Ahead Summary and Recommendation More of the energy stocks in our coverage are likely to be rated buy, sell, or neutral over the next several weeks as we communicate our research in a manner

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks October 16, 2012

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks October 16, 2012 Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) Clean Energy for Global Growth Meter Reader Symbol RDS-A Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/13 (US$mm) 54,400 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 2 Price (US$/sh)

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks April 5, 2011

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks April 5, 2011 Chevron Corporation (CVX) Raise NPV to $154 a Share from $146 Symbol CVX Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/12 (US$mm) 56,900 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 2 Price ($/sh) 108.23 Natural

More information

Suncor Energy Raise Net Present Value to $75 a Share

Suncor Energy Raise Net Present Value to $75 a Share McDep Associates Page 1 Suncor Energy Raise Net Present Value to $75 a Share Rating: Buy S&P 500: 1274 Symbol SU Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 12/31/06 (US$mm) 5,200 Rating Buy North American Natural

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks December 20, 2011

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks December 20, 2011 Centenarians Win Large Cap Race in 2011 Summary and Recommendation In the 100 th anniversary year of the breakup of the Standard Oil Trust, the separate companies and their Anglo-Dutch rival delivered

More information

Oil Price Scenario for the Decade

Oil Price Scenario for the Decade Oil Scenario for the Decade Summary and Recommendation During the 2010s the price of Light Sweet Crude Oil quoted on the New York Mercantile Exchange might settle near $40 a barrel, in 2003 dollars, following

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks July 3, 2012

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks July 3, 2012 Gazprom (OGZPY - Contrarian Buy) Dividend Double Approved Symbol OGZPY Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 6/30/13 (US$mm) 62,000 Rating Contrarian Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 0 Price (US$/sh)

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks April 17, 2012

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks April 17, 2012 ConocoPhillips (COP-W) Largest North American Independent Producer Debut Symbol COP-W Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/13 (US$mm) 22,500 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 5 Price (US$/sh)

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks May 1, 2012

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks May 1, 2012 Royal Dutch Shell (RDS/A) LNG and GTL Profit Gains Meter Reader Symbol RDS-A Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/13 (US$mm) 58,500 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 2 Price (US$/sh) 71.54

More information

Real Return in International Oil Dividends

Real Return in International Oil Dividends Real Return in International Oil Dividends Summary and Recommendation Looking ahead, real yield favors new investment in high quality international oil equity over high quality government bonds. The relationship

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks February 15, 2011

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks February 15, 2011 Euro Oils Pay High Dividends from Global Profits Summary and Recommendation Buy recommendations Total (TOT), Statoil (STO) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) offer the highest current dividend yields in our large

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks January 29, 2013

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks January 29, 2013 Improved Crude Oil Price Outlook North American Advantage Summary and Recommendation An uptrend in long-term oil price and reduced geographic differences may benefit oil and gas producers in 2013, including

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks February 28, 2012

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks February 28, 2012 ConocoPhillips (COP Buy) Shale Oil Growth with Alaska Upside Symbol COP Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 12/31/12 (US$mm) 28,100 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 5 Price (US$/sh) 76.43

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks March 30, 2010 Lower ConocoPhillips NPV to $95 from $105

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks March 30, 2010 Lower ConocoPhillips NPV to $95 from $105 Lower ConocoPhillips NPV to $95 from $105 Symbol COP Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/11 (US$mm) 25,600 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 8 Price (US$/sh) 51.15 Natural Gas and Oil

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks June 19, 2012

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks June 19, 2012 Cenovus Energy (CVE - Contrarian Buy) Deep Oil Sands Growth at Lower Price Symbol CVE Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 6/30/13 (US$mm) 4,500 Rating Contrarian Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%)

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks January 3, 2012

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks January 3, 2012 Shale Deals for DVN/Sinopec and TOT/CHK Summary and Recommendation Buy-recommended Devon Energy (DVN) will receive $2.2 billion from China oil company Sinopec and Buy-recommended Total (TOT) will pay $2.3

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks March 8, 2011

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks March 8, 2011 Favor COSWF on Price Blowout, End Buy on CNQ Summary and Recommendation A widening of the price difference between Syncrude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to US$12 a barrel, which when added to US$105

More information

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks September 1, 2015

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks September 1, 2015 MRO, DVN, COP, OXY, EOG Resilient Large Cap Independent Producers Present Value by Segment (%) Price North Rest of Dist. (US$/sh) EV/ Enterprise Amer. World Yield Symbol/Rating 31-Aug Market Value Natural

More information

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks January 13, 2016, Intraday

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks January 13, 2016, Intraday Large Cap Independent Producers Wild Markets in Oil and Securities Present Value by Segment (%) Price North Rest of Dist. (US$/sh) EV/ Enterprise Amer. World Yield Symbol/Rating 13-Jan Market Value Natural

More information

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks July 19, 2017

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks July 19, 2017 Large Cap Independent Producers Potential to Prosper Price Oil Dist. (US$/sh) Market Enterprise EV/ EV/ PV/ Prod'n/ Yield McDep Symbol/Rating 18-Jul Cap Value Market Ebitda Ebitda PV NTM Ratio 2017 (US$mm)

More information

Independent Stock Idea September 22, 2015

Independent Stock Idea September 22, 2015 Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (CRT) Low Risk 7.5% Income Independent Stock Idea Symbol CRT Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/16 (US$mm) 10 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 50 Price (US$/sh)

More information

Raise Present Value for Independent Producers

Raise Present Value for Independent Producers Raise Present Value for Independent Producers Summary and Recommendation Recommended Encana Corporation (ECA), Burlington Resources (BR) and Anadarko (APC) appear to be among the most attractive of large

More information

Inflation Beating Deflation

Inflation Beating Deflation Inflation Beating Deflation Summary and Recommendation Our buy recommendations of natural gas producers Burlington Resources (BR), Encana (ECA) and XTO Energy (XTO) get current support from a rising trend

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks April 16, 2013

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks April 16, 2013 Chevron (CVX) Deflation Resistance Symbol CVX Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/14 (US$mm) 50,800 Rating Hold North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 2 Price ($/sh) 116.57 Natural Gas and Oil Production/Ebitda

More information

Independent Stock Idea October 18, 2016

Independent Stock Idea October 18, 2016 California Resources Corporation (CRC) Option on Oil Price Independent Stock Idea Symbol CRC Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/17 (US$mm) 713 Rating North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 11 Price ($/sh)

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks May 14, 2013

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks May 14, 2013 EOG Resources (EOG) Raise NPV to $180 on More Big Wells Symbol EOG Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/14 (US$mm) 7,400 Rating Hold North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 12 Price ($/sh) 133.66 Natural

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks September 10, 2013

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks September 10, 2013 Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Permian Late Bloomer Meter Reader Symbol OXY Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/14 (US$mm) 14,900 Rating Hold North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 4 Price (US$/sh) 89.70

More information

Qatari LNG. Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio July 24, Summary and Recommendation

Qatari LNG. Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio July 24, Summary and Recommendation Qatari LNG Summary and Recommendation Recent publicity about giant liquefied natural gas projects under consideration for Qatar reinforce our view that the conventional North American natural gas resource

More information

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks October 17, 2017

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks October 17, 2017 Large Cap Frackers Oil Price Moderators Price Oil Dist. (US$/sh) Market Enterprise EV/ EV/ PV/ Prod'n/ Yield McDep Symbol/Rating 16-Oct Cap Value Market Ebitda Ebitda PV NTM Ratio 2017 (US$mm) ($mm) Cap

More information

Canadian Self-Reliance

Canadian Self-Reliance Canadian Self-Reliance Summary and Recommendation As we write this the EnCana deal has just been announced combining buy recommended PanCanadian Energy (PCX) and Alberta Energy to the form the largest

More information

Independent Stock Idea Intraday October 24, 2017

Independent Stock Idea Intraday October 24, 2017 Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (CRT) Free Cash Flow Independent Stock Idea Symbol CRT Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/18 (US$mm) 9 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 48 Price (US$/sh)

More information

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks January 22, 2016

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks January 22, 2016 Income Payer Surprises CRT, PBT, SBR, SJT, DMLP Present Value by Segment (%) Price North Rest of Dist. (US$/sh) EV/ Enterprise Amer. World Yield Symbol/Rating 21-Jan Market Value Natural Natural Oil Down-

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks May 23, 2011

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks May 23, 2011 Statoil ASA (STO) Nordic Oil and Gas Stalwart Meter Reader Symbol STO Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/12 (US$mm) 30,900 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 0 Price ($/sh) 24.01 Natural

More information

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners The Game Goes On

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners The Game Goes On McDep Associates Page 1 Kinder Morgan Energy Partners The Game Goes On Rating: Sell S&P 500: 1235 Symbol KMI KMP KMR KMx Rating Sell Sell Sell Price (US$/sh) 89.48 53.79 48.63 Pricing Date 7/20/05 07/20/05

More information

McDep Energy Portfolio

McDep Energy Portfolio McDep Energy Portfolio Summary and Recommendation In a model portfolio we weight all our current recommendations as a coherent combination that could be the complete energy portion of a diversified investment

More information

New 2002 High For Natural Gas

New 2002 High For Natural Gas New 2002 High For Natural Gas Summary and Recommendation Unlike a year ago when natural gas had peaked and was in temporary decline, now natural gas is setting new 2002 highs and climbing. Buy recommendations

More information

Rising Oil Price and Inflation Expectations

Rising Oil Price and Inflation Expectations Rising Oil and Inflation Expectations Summary and Recommendation One-year and six-year oil futures had a good week setting new highs piercing the $28 and $24 level respectively (see Chart). Representing

More information

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks September 25, 2017

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks September 25, 2017 Cash, Fracking and Inflation CRT, DMLP, PBT, SBR, SJT Price Oil Dist. (US$/sh) Market Enterprise EV/ EV/ PV/ Prod'n/ Yield McDep Symbol/Rating 22-Sep Cap Value Market Ebitda Ebitda PV NTM Ratio 2017 (US$mm)

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks January 7, 2014

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks January 7, 2014 Six-Year Futures in 2014 Oil Up, Natural Gas Up More Summary and Recommendation Meter Reader We call six-year futures of oil to increase to $90 a barrel in 2014 from $82 today and six-year futures for

More information

Independent Stock Idea Intraday November 2, 2017

Independent Stock Idea Intraday November 2, 2017 Marathon Oil (MRO) Shale Oil Value Symbol MRO Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/18 (US$mm) 2,570 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 8 Price (US$/sh) 14.99 Natural Gas and Oil Production/Ebitda

More information

Independent Stock Idea May 18, 2017 Intraday

Independent Stock Idea May 18, 2017 Intraday Dorchester Minerals, L.P. (DMLP) Midland Basin Spotlight Symbol DMLP Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/18 (US$mm) 40 Rating North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 46 Price (US$/sh) 16.50 Natural Gas

More information

Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003

Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 Summary and Recommendation A historic change in dividend taxation boosts the after tax income of the McDep Energy Portfolio by about 0.7% of principal

More information

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks November 22, 2016

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks November 22, 2016 Income Payers Sparkle CRT, DMLP, PBT, SBR, SJT Present Value by Segment (%) Price North Rest of Dist. (US$/sh) EV/ Enterprise Amer. World Yield Symbol/Rating 21-Nov Market Value Natural Natural Oil Down-

More information

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks December 20, 2017

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks December 20, 2017 Top Line Premium and Bottom Line Upside CRT, DMLP, PBT, SBR, SJT Price Oil Dist. (US$/sh) Market Enterprise EV/ EV/ PV/ Prod'n/ Yield McDep Symbol/Rating 19-Dec Cap Value Market Ebitda Ebitda PV NTM Ratio

More information

Independent Stock Idea November 12, 2017

Independent Stock Idea November 12, 2017 Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIREF) Downward Price Pressure Lifting Independent Stock Idea Symbol BIREF Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/18 (US$mm) 297 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%)

More information

Buy a Small Cap Natural Gas and Oil Producer

Buy a Small Cap Natural Gas and Oil Producer Buy a Small Cap Producer Summary and Recommendation Among 24 small cap natural gas and oil producers, recommended Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COS_u.TO) and San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) offer low McDep

More information

Independent Stock Idea Intraday September 4, 2018

Independent Stock Idea Intraday September 4, 2018 Suncor Energy (SU) Oil Value Upside Symbol SU Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/19 (US$mm) 12,600 Rating Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 0 Price (US$/sh) 40.35 Natural Gas and Oil Production/Ebitda (%) 78 Pricing

More information

Meter Reader A Monthly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks June 13, 2017

Meter Reader A Monthly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks June 13, 2017 Value Beckoning Meter Reader Price Oil Dist. (US$/sh) Market Enterprise EV/ EV/ PV/ Prod'n/ Yield McDep Symbol/Rating 12-Jun Cap Value Market Ebitda Ebitda PV NTM Ratio 2017 (US$mm) ($mm) Cap NTM NTM (%)

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks July 16, 2013

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Large Cap Oil and Gas Stocks July 16, 2013 Buy Canadian Oil Sands Ltd. (COSWF), Hold Suncor (SU) Change from Hold to Buy, Buy to Hold Symbol COSWF Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 6/30/14 (US$mm) 1,960 Rating Contrarian Buy North American Natural

More information

Meter Reader A Monthly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks Intraday November 16, 2017

Meter Reader A Monthly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks Intraday November 16, 2017 Buy ETF or Global Integrated Stock Price Oil Dist. (US$/sh) Market Enterprise EV/ EV/ PV/ Prod'n/ Yield McDep Symbol/Rating 16-Nov Cap Value Market Ebitda Ebitda PV NTM Ratio 2017 (US$mm) ($mm) Cap NTM

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks July 15, 2014

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks July 15, 2014 Whiting Petroleum (WLL) Agrees to Acquire Kodiak Oil & Gas Symbol WLL Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 6/30/15 (US$mm) 2,552 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 4 Price ($/sh) 84.58 Natural

More information

Meter Reader A Monthly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks December 12, 2017

Meter Reader A Monthly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks December 12, 2017 Oil and Gas Gains in 2018 Summary and Recommendation Meter Reader Renewed optimism for global growth promises rising demand for oil and gas at the same time surplus fuel inventories are dwindling. U.S.

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio November 19, Upward Slope

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio November 19, Upward Slope Upward Slope Summary and Recommendation The drop in near term oil quotes gives the oil price futures curve a definitive upward slope that promises improving returns ahead for energy investors. At the same

More information

Independent Stock Idea July 7, 2015

Independent Stock Idea July 7, 2015 Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT) Buy Underestimated Future Oil and Gas Production Symbol PBT Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 6/30/16 (US$mm) 35 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 20 Price

More information

Meter Reader Monthly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks June 12, 2018

Meter Reader Monthly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks June 12, 2018 Positive Charts Summary and Recommendation Meter Reader Fifteen of the twenty-two stocks in our research have price charts with three momentum measures all pointing up. All 15 are in the golden cross pattern

More information

Independent Stock Idea Intraday August 8, 2017

Independent Stock Idea Intraday August 8, 2017 San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) BP Tests Best San Juan Well in 14 Years Independent Stock Idea Symbol SJT Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 6/30/18 (US$mm) 24 Rating North American Natural Gas/Ebitda

More information

Independent Stock Idea February 2, 2018

Independent Stock Idea February 2, 2018 ConocoPhillips (COP) Raise NPV to $80 on Higher Cash Flow Independent Stock Idea Symbol COP Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 12/31/18 (US$mm) 14,200 Rating Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 23 Price (US$/sh) 59.35

More information

Total S.A. Raise Net Present Value to $126 a Share

Total S.A. Raise Net Present Value to $126 a Share McDep Associates Page 1 Total S.A. Raise Net Present Value to $126 a Share Rating: Buy S&P 500: 1171 Symbol TOT Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/06 (US$mm) 31,800 Rating Buy North American Natural

More information

Independent Stock Idea Intraday March 1, 2018

Independent Stock Idea Intraday March 1, 2018 EOG Resources (EOG) Raise NPV to $130 on Production Independent Stock Idea Symbol EOG Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/19 (US$mm) 8,500 Rating Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 9 Price ($/sh) 100.82 Natural

More information

Marathon Oil Corporation Raise Net Present Value to $42 a Share

Marathon Oil Corporation Raise Net Present Value to $42 a Share McDep Associates Page 1 Raise Net Present Value to $42 a Share Rating: Buy S&P 500: 1171 Symbol MRO Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 3/31/06 (US$mm) 3,800 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%)

More information

High Natural Gas Price is a Good Thing

High Natural Gas Price is a Good Thing High Natural Gas is a Good Thing Summary and Recommendation In an unusual appearance before a Congressional committee on an industry issue, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Mr. Greenspan, urged a major

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio July 29, Move Up to Quality

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio July 29, Move Up to Quality Move Up to Quality Summary and Recommendation An exaggerated stock price drop for Buy recommended ChevronTexaco (CVX, 69.70) presents an attractive long-term opportunity to invest in a high-quality Mega

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks October 28, 2014

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks October 28, 2014 Cenovus Energy (CVE) Same Stock Price, Twice the Production Symbol CVE Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/15 (US$mm) 3,500 Rating North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 10 Price (US$/sh) 24.14 Natural

More information

Oil At 2002 High. Six-Year and One-Year Natural Gas and Oil Futures. 72 Month Natural Gas 12 Month Natural Gas 72 Month Oil 12 Month Oil 4/18/02

Oil At 2002 High. Six-Year and One-Year Natural Gas and Oil Futures. 72 Month Natural Gas 12 Month Natural Gas 72 Month Oil 12 Month Oil 4/18/02 Oil At 2002 High Summary and Recommendation Crude oil prices at new highs for the year mean profits for investors in our oil recommendations including Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COS_u.TO) and CNOOC Ltd

More information

Pipeline Partnership Take Under

Pipeline Partnership Take Under Pipeline Partnership Take Under Summary and Recommendation Valuation risk appears to be mounting in "high greed" pipeline partnerships. The price paid by private equity buyers for the general partner (GP)

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio September 17, 2001 WAR

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Energy Stocks Using the McDep Ratio September 17, 2001 WAR WAR Summary In sympathy to the pain and suffering we all feel for the loss of life in the Attack on America we make no reference to stocks as recommendations in our commentary this week. Yet we do carry

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks October 21, 2014

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks October 21, 2014 Cimarex Energy (XEC) Strong Independent Producer Meter Reader Symbol XEC Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/15 (US$mm) 1,646 Rating Contrarian Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 30 Price ($/sh)

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks September 16, 2014

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks September 16, 2014 Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDSA) Ben s Growth Strategy Symbol RDS-A Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 6/30/15 (US$mm) 54,400 Rating North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 3 Price (US$/sh) 77.69 Natural Gas and

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks July 1, 2014

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks July 1, 2014 Canadian Oil Sands Ltd. (COSWF) Returning to Favor Symbol COSWF Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 6/30/15 (US$mm) 2,020 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 0 Price (US$/share) 22.66 Natural

More information

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks Intraday July 30, 2018

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks Intraday July 30, 2018 Durable Cash Generators CVX, RDS, SU, XOM Price Oil Dist. (US$/sh) Market Enterprise EV/ EV/ PV/ Prod'n/ Yield McDep Symbol/Rating 30-Jul Cap Value Market Ebitda Ebitda Ebitda NTM Ratio 2018 (US$mm) ($mm)

More information

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks November 12, 2013

Meter Reader A Weekly Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks November 12, 2013 Cimarex Energy (XEC) Raise NPV to $125 on Permian Productivity Symbol XEC Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 9/30/14 (US$mm) 1,509 Rating Buy North American Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 24 Price ($/sh) 105.10

More information

Independent Stock Idea Intraday August 7, 2018

Independent Stock Idea Intraday August 7, 2018 Dorchester Minerals, L.P. (DMLP) Q2 on Trend Independent Stock Idea Symbol DMLP Ebitda Next Twelve Months ending 6/30/19 (US$mm) 66 Rating Natural Gas/Ebitda (%) 43 Price (US$/sh) 18.45 Natural Gas and

More information

Meter Reader Special Mid-Year Ranking of Oil and Gas Stocks July 2, 2018

Meter Reader Special Mid-Year Ranking of Oil and Gas Stocks July 2, 2018 Outperformance in First Half 2018 Attractive Value, Auspicious Momentum Summary and Recommendation After outperforming in the first half of 2018, oil and gas stocks stay at attractive value with the median

More information

Low Fee, Low Debt Stands Out

Low Fee, Low Debt Stands Out Low Fee, Low Debt Stands Out Summary and Recommendation Two standout income stocks each had a big week fundamentally. Buy recommended Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COS_u.TO) expands its ownership in the Syncrude

More information

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks August 20, 2018

Industry Idea Analysis of Oil and Gas Stocks August 20, 2018 Small Independents Strategic Value, Uncertain Price BIREF, CRC, RRC, WLL Price Oil Dist. (US$/sh) Market Enterprise EV/ EV/ PV/ Prod'n/ Yield McDep Symbol/Rating 20-Aug Cap Value Market Ebitda Ebitda Ebitda

More information