ETF Report_ Weekly November 13, 2015

Transcription

1 ETF Report_ Weekly November 13, 2015

2 Nov 13, 2015 INTRODUCTION TO TRENDRATING Forecasting trends is nearly impossible. Following trends is possible and lucrative. Trendrating was developed to provide better tools to maximize investment performance and improve risk control. We bring additional intelligence and measurable value to your existing decision making processes. Superior performance and financial success come from discipline and a systematic reality check of assumptions. Bias, emotions, market noise and overconfidence may severely limit a manger's ability to perform. Over 100 asset managers globally incorporate our industry leading momentum analytics. The value of our service is not hidden behind theories and hypothesis; it is reflected every day in the P&L of our clients. THE INCREASING IMPORTANCE OF INCLUDING THE MOMENTUM FACTOR Momentum factor analytics can enhance the decision process. A momentum overlay is an effective addition to most investment strategies. Extensive academic research supports momentum as a strong and persistent factor, proven to add value to fundamental strategies. Analyzing momentum however is extremely difficult - noise and bias are everywhere. Momentum exists in many cases and goes unnoticed due to the lack of proper tools to measure it. Speed of analysis is crucial to promptly adjust index components. Trendrating was developed to quickly identify medium-to-long term trends while also filtering out the noise. OUR MOMENTUM RATINGS The complexity behind our model is boiled down to a simplistic rating scale (A, B, C, D). We believe that this approach supports an actionable decision making process and comparative analysis across markets and sectors. Trendrating s Smart Momentum Model was conceived to support long portfolios. The ratings A and B identify positive momentum phases, while C and D signal negative trends. HOW FUND MANAGERS USE TRENDRATING Quickly screen the entire market to identify new opportunities and validate existing ideas Run a systematic sanity check on all your portfolios to spot early negative momentum Create and test a tactical overlay to your existing strategy with momentum alpha Add a momentum smart beta element to your portfolios Page 2 of 6

3 ETF Momentum Distribution and Performance ETF Report Weekly Nov 13, 2015 Significant Performance for Ratings issued in the last 3 months Upgrades Downgrades Ticker Name Co Rating Performance Ticker Name Co Rating Performance SNGA ETFS Daily Short Natural Gas GB A 20.66% HNU Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Natural Gas Bull Plus ETF CA D % SGG ipath Bloomberg Sugar Subindex TR ETN US B 10.80% UNG United States Natural Gas Fund Lp US C % SUGA ETFS Sugar GB B 7.47% HOGS ETFS Lean Hogs US D -9.88% PUI PowerShares DWA Utilities Momentum Portfolio ETF US B 6.11% NGAS ETFS Natural Gas US D -9.47% JESC JPMorgan European Smaller Companies Trust Plc GB A 5.28% SDOW ProShares Ultrapro Short Dow30 US D -8.17% Currently about 37.5% of the ETF universe we cover is positively rated. A rated Securities have an average performance (Since rated) of over 15%. Below, we will now explore some of the alerts issued over the past week. Upgrades are securities moving into positive momentum while downgrades are securities moving into negative momentum. We also provide a list of high momentum ETFs with relatively young trends in the Potential Investment Candidates Section Page 3 of 6

4 ALERTS over the last week ETF Report Weekly Nov 13, 2015 Upgrades to Downgrade = 36: 70 Sample of Alerts over the last week. Upgrades Downgrades Ticker Name Country Rating Ticker Name Country Rating XGD ishares S&P/TSX Global Gold Index ETF CA B PBE PowerShares Dynamic Biotechnology & Genome Portfolio US D XSPS db x-trackers S&P 500 Inverse Daily UCITS ETF 1C IT A IUKP ishares UK Property UCITS ETF GB C IAUP ishares Gold Producers UCITS ETF GB B VZLC ETFS Physical Silver DE C TDTF FlexShares IBoxx 5-year Target Duration TIPS Index Fund US B ZSILEU Zkb Silver ETF EUR CH C STIP ishares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF US B TRY TR Property Investment Trust Plc GB C SEP Standard Life European Private Equity Trust Plc GB B UKDV SPDR S&P UK Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF GB D OIH Market Vectors Oil Services ETF US B IGR Cbre Clarion Global Real Estate Income Fund US D ITM Market Vectors Intermediate Municipal Index ETF US A XASX db x-trackers FTSE All-share UCITS ETF DR 1D GB D GDX Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF Fund US B VDC Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF US D CD91 ComStage NYSE Arca Gold BUGS UCITS ETF DE B XLP SPDR Fund Consumer Staples Select Sector US C Page 4 of 6

5 ETF Report Weekly Nov 13, 2015 Potential Investment Candidates A selection of high momentum ETFs with young trends Ticker Name Country Rating JESC JPMorgan European Smaller Companies Trust Plc GB A GCP GCP Infrastructure Investments Ltd GB A XLY SPDR Fund Consumer Discretionary Select Sector US A PIN Pantheon International Participations Plc GB A GPE Graphite Enterprise Trust Plc GB A IITB ishares Italy Government Bond UCITS ETF GB A XY4P db x-trackers II iboxx Sovereigns Eurozone Yield Plus UCITS ETF 1C DE A SPMV ishares S&P 500 Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF GB A X1G Amundi Govt Bond Lowest Rated Euromts Investment Grade UCITS ETF FR A SPLV PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio US A EEE EasyETF FTSE EPRA Eurozone FR A IQQ7 ishares US Property Yield UCITS ETF DE A IBCD ishares USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF DE A STX40 Satrix Indexco 40 ZA A IYK ishares US Consumer Goods ETF US A XFFE db x-trackers II Fed Funds Effective Rate UCITS ETF IT A UST Lyxor Nasdaq 100 UCITS ETF FR A BSET Blackrock Income Strategies Trust Plc GB A Page 5 of 6

6 ETF Report Weekly Nov 13, 2015 To learn more about how the Trendrating Momentum Model can help portfolio managers spot market reversals and participate in positive trends longer, please contact us at The evaluations, rankings and information provided by Trendrating (the "Services") are provided solely for the use of finance professionals (the "Users") who, by nature of their status as investment professions understand, or are expected to understand, the complexity of finance products, the functioning of the markets and the risks inherent in them. The Services are not offered for use by persons not employed or actively w orking as professionals in the finance and investment industry. The Services are to be used entirely at the risk of the Users. Included in the Services are forward-looking statements that are based on observations, assumptions and calculations that reflect Trendrating's expectations. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ from those expectations. The Services are not intended to constitute a recommendation of any specific security or financial product and are to be implemented solely in conjunction w ith or as part of a complete investment evaluation conducted by the Users. Under no circumstances shall Trendrating, its officers, directors, employees or agents be liable for any damages, lost profits or investment losses that result in any w ay from use of the Services. Trendrating S.A All rights reserved. Page 6 of 6