Yubin Fu Goldman Sachs International+ 44(20)
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1 The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Goldman Sachs Research 中国金属需求之 硬着陆 China s metals hard landing 转型 - 需求 - 展望 Transition-Demand-Outlook November 2015 Yubin Fu Goldman Sachs International+ 44(20) yubin.fu@gs.com The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to Analysts employed by non-us affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
2 The bearish 3Ds of macro and China s metals hard landing Economy transition and metal demand re-balancing Copper demand outlook Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2
3 The bearish 3Ds of macro --- Deleveraging, Divergence, Deflation
4 Divergence after nearly a decade since the last interest rate hike in the US Real GDP (index, 2008Q4 = 100) US Euro zone Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research See: FX Views: While you were Greeking June Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4
5 E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Mining cost deflation owing to Divergence (strong dollar) and Deflation (lower energy prices, mining services costs etc.) are key to our bear thesis $/t Falling cost support (dollar strength and mining cost deflation) and a surplus market is forecast to result in a major surprise relative to consensus forecasts Copper price Copper marginal cost (90%ile of cost curve) Copper marginal cost (95%ile of cost curve) BBG consensus Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, LME. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5
6 GS China Metals Consumption Index (GS China MCI) We use data on more than 120 of the 310 available industrial production series, seasonally adjust and equally weight the components. As the components of MCI are related to metals and mining commodity consumption, our measure differs from industrial production (IP) in that it does not include value add weights reflecting technological improvements in the efficiency of production or the value-per-unit of output. Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Wood Mackenzie. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6
7 China metals consumption index (GS MCI) points to demand hard landing in 2015 % change yoy GS China Metals Consumption Index China Industrial Production Growth Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, CEIC. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 7
8 EM ex-china copper consumption vs. EM ex-china industrial output % change yoy EM ex China IP Copper demand Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Wood Mackenzie. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 8
9 Economy transition and China s metals demand re-balancing
10 Copper and steel demand has slowed considerably, while gasoline demand has been rising Historical China commodity consumption growth (%yoy) 35% 30% 25% Motor Gasoline Copper Steel 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 10
11 CapEx commodities OpEx commodities China s metal demand re-balancing: Strong demand for Opex commodities ( 消费型商品 ) Slowing demand for Capex commodities ( 投资型商品 ) China consumption growth 2015 (%yoy, 2015 ytd) Gasoline Kerosene Zinc*** Aluminium Soybean* Coffee* Nickel** Oil (total) Naptha Diesel Sugar* Corn* Copper Cotton* Wheat* Met Coal Iron Ore Steel Thermal Coal Cement Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 11
12 What s happening in China?
13 China s debt burden and the impossible trinity ( 经济三元悖论 )limit stimulating the old economy % change yoy, 3mma Nominal GDP Debt (Total Social Financing) New Chinese government Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research, CEIC. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 13
14 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 Apr 12 Jul 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 GS China Metals Consumption Index pointed to a sequential decline in October, and year-on-year growth remains negative % change yoy (lhs), % change mom, 3mma, sa (rhs) 40% 8% 7% 30% 6% 5% 20% 4% 3% 10% 2% 1% 0% 0% -1% -10% -2% -3% -20% -4% GS China MCI yoy (lhs) GS China MCI mom, 3mma, sa (rhs) Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, CEIC. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 14
15 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13 Jan 14 Feb 14 Mar 14 Apr 14 May 14 Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 The recent slight pick-up in demand is unlikely to have caught up with supply, explaining sustained metals price weakness GS China MCI level, seasonally adjusted, stylized supply growth Illustration of metals demand - GS China MCI level Illustration of trend supply A surplus created by demand weakness requires either a major pick up in demand and / or major supply cuts to rebalance the market Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 15
16 Copper demand outlook
17 E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E China s renewable power generation and new energy vehicles (NEVs) will grow strongly in ,000 China s installed power generation capacity GW 100,000 China NEVs sales 000 units 1,800 1,600 1,400 Coal 90,000 80,000 70,000 New energy CV PHEV car 1,200 New Energy 60,000 EV car 1,000 50, , , , , Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, CEIC. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 17
18 Maximum potential copper consumption growth contribution from new energy is 0.63% per annum in , 1/5 of our 3% China Cu demand growth % grow th contribution Tonnage growth in t New energy vehicles 0.13% 80 New energy vehicle charging equipm ent 0.21% 120 Pow er generation shift to renew ables 0.29% 180 Total cu consumption grow th 0.63% 380 Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, CEIC. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 18
19 New starts are still falling and point to weakness in late-cycle copper-intensive construction completions over the coming years 12mma new starts (lhs) lead 22mths, 12mma completions (rhs) NS 12mma (lead 22 months, lhs) Completions 12mma (rhs) Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 19
20 China s grid investment is shifting towards rural which is copper light % E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Urban Rural Source: State Grid, NEA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 20
21 Copper consumption growth from grid distribution % 12% Scenario 1: same average annual growth 10% Scenario 2: ajusted annual growth based on estimate 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Source: State Grid, NEA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 21
22 Copper balances, price outlook
23 Copper s bear cycle still has years to run Global refined copper supply and demand balance, 000t E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Global m ine supply % change Including disruption allow. (%) % 6% 9% 11% 14% 18% Including disruption allow. (level) Global ref ined supply % change Global refined consumption % change Of w hich China % change Of w hich World ex-china % change Balance LM E Price ($/t) Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Wood Mackenzie, ICSG, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 23
24 Disclosure Appendix October 23, 2015
25 Disclosure Appendix We, Max Layton and Yubin Fu, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm's business or client relationships. Unless otherwise stated, the individuals listed on the cover page of this report are analysts in Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research division. Disclosures Global product; distributing entities Sachs offices around the world produce equity research on industries and companies, and research on macroeconomics, currencies, commodities and portfolio strategy. This research is disseminated in Australia by Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd (ABN ); in Brazil by Goldman Sachs do Brasil Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários S.A.; in Canada by either Goldman Sachs Canada Inc. or Goldman, Sachs & Co.; in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.; in India by Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Ltd.; in Japan by Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.; in the Republic of Korea by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in New Zealand by Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited; in Russia by OOO Goldman Sachs; in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte. (Company Number: W); and in the United States of America by Goldman, Sachs & Co. Goldman Sachs International has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom and European Union. European Union: Goldman Sachs International authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority, has approved this research in connection with its distribution in the European Union and United Kingdom; Goldman Sachs AG and Goldman Sachs International Zweigniederlassung Frankfurt, regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, may also distribute research in Germany. General disclosures This research is for our clients only. Other than disclosures relating to Goldman Sachs, this research is based on current public information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. 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