For Investment Professionals only. HGIF Middle East and North Africa Equity Fund
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1 For Investment Professionals only HGIF Middle East and North Africa Equity Fund
2 Investment case 2
3 The MENA region : our view Economic resilience in the current global economic environment and strong longterm growth potential More stable political and regulatory environment, increasingly open to foreign investors Historically low correlations to emerging and global markets Very attractive valuations 3
4 Background: Positioning Middle East & North Africa 4
5 MENA universe Morocco Western Sahara Algeria Tunisia Libya Palestinian Territory Lebanon Egypt Sudan Iraq Syria Jordan Saudi Arabia Iran Oman Kuwait Bahrain Qatar UAE MENA % of World Population (million) % GDP PPP (US$ billion) 2, % Total Market Capitalisation (US$ billion) % Number of listed firms on Stock Markets 1,713 - Source: MSCI, CIA Factbook 2009, IMF Middle East and Central Asia Regional Economic Survey May 2009, Factset 5
6 Macroeconomic overview The Middle East is in the process of a structural and economic development that promises to establish the region as a significant player in world markets A large, diverse region with the dynamic, resource-rich economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) at its core Oil Exporters Oil Importers MENA Real Growth (%) 5.4% 6.2% 5.7% Fiscal Balance (% GDP) 14.0% -5.8% 7.1% CPI (year avg, %) 15.6% 14.4% 15.2% and beyond, the typically more broadbased, but less wealthy economies of the more populous North African and Western Asian countries Current Account Balance (% GDP) Total Government Debt (% GDP) 21.5% -5.0% 15.2% 14.8% 64.9% 32.3% Source: IMF Middle East and central Asia Regional Economic Survey May
7 Why consider MENA now? 7
8 MENA is expected to grow faster than many Emerging Markets despite the fall in the oil price 8.0 Real GDP Forecast (%) E 2010E Latam Eastern Europe World MENA Asia Source: Morgan Stanley, April
9 MENA is a diverse region Oil is not the only source of growth Real GDP Growth Oil exporters Oil importers MENA E 2010E Oil and Non-oil real GDP growth in oil exporting countries Oil sector growth Non-oil sector growth Aggregate growth E 2010E Source: IMF, UBS April
10 Low debt after years of high oil prices Low levels of debt and high FX reserves MENA has enjoyed many years of excess liquidity and has a strong balance sheet today 450% Gross External Debt / Fx Reserve 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% China Thailand Malaysia India Russia Brazil Korea Israel Mexico Czech S. Africa Chile Indonesia Turkey Poland Kuwait UAE Saudi Arabia Morocco Egypt Oman Qatar Source: Morgan Stanley, April
11 Fiscal position strong even after the sharp fall in the oil price Most countries break-even at 40-50$ MENA Oil exporters Oil importers Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Source: Morgan Stanley, April
12 GCC growth driven by domestic demand, not just oil exports Rising middle classes Employment creation and strong demographic growth Supportive government spending policies Source: HSBC, May Data refers to GCC countries only. 12
13 Investment spending and Infrastructure are major themes Huge capital spending projects are underway across the region despite the recent financial crisis Catch up infrastructure spending required after two decades of underinvestment New capacity required to support next phase of economic growth New provision to provide infrastructure appropriate for increased levels of wealth Despite some cancellations, the investment pipeline is still strong and the vast majority of projects are going ahead Cumulative Planned Spending $ Bn Support for planned capital projects Gulf projects: planned spending % of GDP (RHS) % % % % % 0 0% Saudi Oman Bahrain Qatar Kuwait UAE High levels of political support Strong ability to self finance Cumulative planned spending projects bn$ %age of GDP The Gulf is overhauling its entire economic base Source: HSBC, Citigroup, Halbis estimates, May
14 Attractive demographics compared to Developed Markets % % 39.3% % % 44.0% 10.1% 36.4% 53.5% Projected Northern Africa Western Asia Arabian Peninsula Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (2007) accessed 7 th April,
15 Positive demographics Median Age of the Populations of MENA Countries, the World, the USA and France, 2005 Yemen Palestine Iraq Syria Jordan Oman Egypt Saudi Arabia Iran Algeria Libya Morocco Tunisia Turkey Lebanon World Bahrain Israel Kuwait UAE Qatar USA France Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (2007) accessed 4 th April,
16 Domestic stock markets coming of age MENA Market Capitalisation US$540 billion Saudi Kuwait UAE Egypt Jordan Oman GCC countries are gradually allowing foreign investors into their stock markets Foreign ownership limits are generally being reduced Saudi Arabia is opening up to foreign investors New stock markets have recently been launched in Libya and Syria Source: Bloomberg, as of May 21 st
17 An asset class with a low correlation EM World Arabian ex Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Egypt Morocco Jordan EM World Arabian ex KSA UAE Kuwait Qatar Egypt Morocco Jordan 1.00 Source: Performance Source: Factset. MSCI returns are Net, USD. Data is from July April
18 The recent weakness offers an excellent entry point for investors MSCI Arabian ex-saudi Index ($)* % % Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 *Includes UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon and Jordan Source: Factset. Data as of May 31 st
19 Attractive valuations Valuations are near historical lows and are very attractive, both in absolute terms and relative to Global Emerging Markets P/E Ratio - Arabian Markets x Saudi Arabian Markets x Saudi Arabia 1.8x 1.7x 1.6x Arabian Mkt P/E Relative to EM Arabian Mkt P/B Relative to EM x x x Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan x 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x 0.8x 0.7x Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar x 1.0x Source: Morgan Stanley, April
20 Strong underlying profitability MENA markets (as measured by the MSCI Arabian markets Index) offer the highest ROEs across Emerging Markets at attractive valuations 2.0x Trailing P/BV 1.9x 1.8x 1.7x 1.6x 1.5x 1.4x Emerging Asia Latam MSCI GEM Higher ROE at lower valuations Arabian Markets * (MENA) 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 2009 ROE Source: MSCI, Factset 20
21 Risks Extreme movements in the oil price The MENA region is more sensitive to geo-political risks both within the region and externally Relatively undeveloped financial markets with a higher degree of intrinsic risk Younger and less established democracies still at the beginning of the reform pattern and with a limited track record of operating in the global economy 21
22 Model Portfolio Positioning HGIF Middle East and North Africa Fund 22
23 Portfolio Holdings HSBC GIF Middle East and North Africa Equity Fund Universe Fund Characteristics Equity in companies listed/based in the following countries: Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia However, the fund may also invest in other MENA countries such as Libya, Syria and Saudi Arabia Number of stocks: Maximum exposure to a single security: 10% Market-cap: Not less than US$50m* * Internal decision for liquidity reason 23
24 Model portfolio for HSBC GIF Middle East and North Africa Equity Fund Country Weight United Arab Emirates 22% Egypt 20% Qatar 15% Kuwait 13% Morocco 7% Oman 7% Lebanon 5% Saudi Arabia 5% Jordan 3% Tunisia 3% Sector Weight Financials 50% Telecommunications 25% Industrials 14% Energy 5% Consumer 4% Utilities 2% Financials 50% Source: HSBC HALBIS FACTSET 30 August
25 Example Qatar National Bank (Qatar) Investment case Qatar s largest bank, with strong links to the government Qatar experiencing continued economic boom, driven by LNG production (IMF expects GDP growth of 18% in 2009 and 16% in 2010) Strong balance sheet and capital position, well positioned to capture growth opportunities Strong profitability with ROE in excess of 20% Trading at attractive valuations 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Qatar real GDP growth F 2010 F Source: IMF, April 2009 Primary listing Qatar P/E (FY 09) 9 x Market capitalisation USD 9.7 billion Earnings growth (FY 09) 9% Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates; 25
26 Example Poulina (Tunisia) Investment case Largest Tunisian company with operations as diverse as ceramics, steel products, packaging, real estate and food production Exposed to growing government spending and foreign direct investment in Tunisia, Algeria and Libya Strong GDP growth expected in 2009: Tunisia 4.5%, Algeria 2.1%, Libya 5.5% Successfully listed in August Revenues (TNDm) F 2010F Primary listing Tunisia P/E (FY 09) 12 x Market capitalisation USD 755 million Earnings growth (FY 09) 25% Source: Halbis, IMF BMI Graph Source: IPO Prospectus Any forecast provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. 26
27 Example Galfar Engineering (Oman) Investment case Engineering and contracting company based in Oman, involved in civil infrastructure projects and oil & gas More than 90% of Galfar s order book are government contracts Healthy order book with no significant cancellations and new government contracts awards expected this year Potential for margin expansion as raw material prices fall Net Income (OMR mln) F 2010F Primary listing Oman P/E (FY 09) 7.6 x Market capitalisation USD 580 million Earnings growth (FY 09) 15% Source: Halbis estimates; Graph source: company annual report Any forecast provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. 27
28 Investment philosophy and process 28
29 HSBC GIF MENA Equity Investment Team The team was established in December 2007 with the hiring of Andrea Nannini, an experienced Frontier Markets investment professional The team has experienced no personnel turnover since its inception Name Title Responsibilities Years Experience Years with Firm Education/Degree Andrea Nannini Senior Portfolio Manager Head of MENA Portfolio Management 10 1 MSc Bocconi University; CFA Andrew Brudenell Portfolio Manager MENA Portfolio Management 11 2 MSc The London School of Economics; CFA Basak Yavuz Portfolio Manager MENA Portfolio Management 11 1 BA (2) Bosphorus University; CFA 29
30 HSBC GIF MENA Equity Investment Resources Portfolio Managers Andrea Nannini Andrew Brudenell Basak Yavuz Halbis Resources Over 70 investment and support resources HSBC Resources Emerging Markets Equities and Fixed Income Portfolio Managers Economists Global Macro Team Investment Support Support, Risk Dealing Product Specialists HSBC Access HSBC brand well-known in emerging and frontier markets Dedicated Client Service Global Reach Local investment teams help mitigate regional risks and generate ideas Legal / Compliance / Risk Dedicated in-house expertise 30
31 Investment Process Summary Approximately 70% of our process is focused on stock selection; 30% on country selection Strategy Development Stock Selection Portfolio Construction Risk Monitoring Global cycle analysis Bottom-up fundamental analysis Implement Investment ideas Continuous assessment of portfolio positioning Development of themes Country analysis - Local macro - Local politics - Local investor base Development of investment ideas, exploiting themes and value opportunities Determine optimal position sizes, based on risk - Upside to fair value - Identified inflection points - Conviction levels Ensure adherence to regulatory and fund specific guidelines - Front-end systems - Client guidelines - In-house risk limits - Regulatory guidelines Sell discipline Output: Portfolio Strategy Output: Investment Ideas Output: Client Portfolio Output: Assessment of Portfolio Positions 31
32 Investment Process Bottom-Up Stock Selection Sustainability of returns Re-investment opportunities Cash flow and accounting Management Valuation Investment conclusion Industry dynamics Competitor analysis Barriers to entry Growth potential Acquisition opportunities Payout ratio Cash generation Balance sheet structure Accounting issues Track record Capital allocation Reward structure Cashflow modelling Cross checked with sector relevant valuation models Key drivers Key risks Fair value target Conviction level Idea Generation On-the-ground research Internal screening processes External sources HSBC global network 32
33 Investment Process Decision Making Framework Monthly Bi-Weekly Daily Ad-hoc Emerging Markets monthly meeting EM Equity Research Local EM teams EMD team MENA team s bi-weekly portfolio review meeting Review themes and overall strategy Discuss risk framework and positioning Daily reports produced Daily performance Risk reports Interaction across Halbis/HSBC Local EM equity teams Private equity Review current holdings Local senior bank personnel Performance review Output: Macro Outlook Output: Adjustments to portfolio Output: Daily Reports 33
34 Halbis competitive advantage A dedicated team of investment professionals with extensive experience in managing money in the MENA region A proven investment process, leveraging on the experience from the HSBC New Frontiers fund HSBC s strong local presence in the Middle East 34
35 Fund key features Investment objective Long term capital growth, investing at least two thirds of its total non cash assets in equity and equity equivalent securities of companies in the Middle East & North Africa region (MENA). Benchmark The MSCI Arabian ex Saudi Arabia Total Return Index (Net). Number of Holdings Typically the fund will hold around 50 to 60 stocks. Key Features for HGIF Middle East and North Africa Fund Fund Name: HSBC Global Investment Funds Middle East and North Africa Domicile: Luxembourg Status: Sub-fund of HSBC Global Investment Funds, a UCITS SICAV Currency USD denomination: Target 6 October 2009 launch date: Stock limit 10% of NAV Country Limit: +/- 20% relative to benchmark Sector Limit: Unconstrained NAV pricing: Daily (Monday to Thursday) Dealing day: Daily (Monday to Thursday) Fee Structure A (retail) I (Institutional) Minimum investment: $5,000 $1m Management fee: 1.50% 0.75% Operating & admin fee: 0.40% 0.30% Source: HSBC HALBIS 30 April
36 Summary 36
37 Summary The HSBC GIF MENA Equity Fund offers Exposure to the one of the most attractive regions in Emerging Markets with strong economic fundamentals and improving political stability strong demographics attractive valuations low volatility and low correlations with global equity markets from a leader in Emerging Markets fund management HSBC Global Asset Management manages over US$ 69 billion* in Global Emerging Market assets worldwide Managed by an experienced team drawing on HSBC s presence in 83 countries and territories around the world *As of end of Junel 2009 Source: HSBC Global Asset Management 37
38 Team biographies Andrea Nannini, CFA Senior Portfolio Manager Andrea Nannini joined Halbis in December 2007 as Senior Portfolio Manager with responsibility for Frontier Emerging Markets. Prior to this, Andrea spent 8 years as a fund manager at BankInvest in Copenhagen, with responsibility for Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA). During this period he was lead manager for an Eastern Europe fund and a Frontier Emerging Markets fund, which he had a key role in developing and launching in He previously worked as a research analyst at Banca Intesa and RAS Asset Management in Milan. Andrea is a graduate in economics from Bocconi University in Milan and is a CFA charterholder. Andrew Brudenell, CFA Portfolio Manager Andrew Brudenell joined Halbis as the Global Technology, Telecommunications and Industrials analyst in In 2008, he joined the New Frontiers team. Prior to his joining Halbis, Andrew worked at Scudder Investments in New York as a US fund manager. He began his investment career at Deutsche Asset Management in Andrew Brudenell holds an MSc from the London School of Economics and is a CFA Charterholder. 38
39 Team biographies (cont d) Basak Yavuz, CFA Portfolio Manager Basak Yavuz joined Halbis Capital Management in February 2008 as part of the New Frontiers team. Basak has over 10 years of experience in Emerging Markets. She has most recently been an analyst at Alliance Bernstein in London, focusing on the energy and materials sector. Basak is a CFA Charterholder. 39
40 Risks and drawbacks Economies in Emerging Markets generally are heavily dependent upon international trade and, accordingly, have been and may continue to be affected adversely by trade barriers, exchange controls, managed adjustments in relative currency values and other protectionist measures imposed or negotiated by the countries with which they trade. These economies also have been and may continue to be affected adversely by economic conditions in the countries in which they trade Brokerage commissions, custodial services and other costs relating to investment in Emerging Markets generally are more expensive than those relating to investment in more developed markets. Lack of adequate custodial systems in some markets may prevent investment in a given country or may require a sub-fund to accept greater custodial risks in order to invest, although the Custodian will endeavour to minimise such risks through the appointment of correspondents that are international, reputable and creditworthy financial institutions. In addition, such markets have different settlement and clearance procedures. In certain markets there have been times when settlements have been unable to keep pace with the volume of securities transactions, making it difficult to conduct such transactions 40
41 Risks and drawbacks (cont d) The inability of a sub-fund to make intended securities purchases due to settlement problems could cause the sub-fund to miss attractive investment opportunities. Inability to dispose of a portfolio security caused by settlement problems could result either in losses to a sub-fund due to subsequent declines in value of the portfolio security or, if a sub-fund has entered into a contract to sell the security, could result in potential liability to the purchaser The risk also exists that an emergency situation may arise in one or more developing markets as a result of which trading of securities may cease or may be substantially curtailed and prices for a sub-fund s securities in such markets may not be readily available Investors should note that changes in the political climate in Emerging Markets may result in significant shifts in the attitude to the taxation of foreign investors. Such changes may result in changes to legislation, the interpretation of legislation, or the granting of foreign investors the benefit of tax exemptions or international tax treaties. The effect of such changes can be retrospective and can (if they occur) have an adverse impact on the investment return of shareholders in any sub-fund so affected The foregoing risk factors do not purport to be a complete explanation of the risks involved in investing in the shares. Prospective investors should read the entire Prospectus and consult with their legal, tax and financial advisors before making any decision to invest in any sub-fund 41
42 Important information The contents of this presentation are confidential and may not be reproduced or further distributed to any person or entity, whether in whole or in part, for any purpose. The HSBC Global Investment Fund ( GIF ) range is a Luxembourg domiciled SICAV and is regulated by the CSSF. The funds mentioned in this document may not be registered for sale or available in all jurisdictions. For available funds please contact your local HSBC office. HSBC Global Investment Funds range cannot be sold by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not lawful or in which the person making such an offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. All applications are made on the basis of the current HSBC Global Investment Funds Prospectus, simplified prospectus and most recent annual and semi-annual reports. These can be obtained on request and free of charge from HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited or the local distributors. The value of investments may go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Where overseas investments are held the rate of exchange may cause the value of investments to go down as well as up. Markets in some countries can be described as emerging markets. Some of these may involve a higher risk than where an investment is within a more established market. Where a sub-fund invests predominately in one geographical area, any decline in economic conditions may affect prices and the value of underlying investments. The securities representing interests in the HSBC Global Investment Funds range have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and will not be offered for sale or sold in the United States of America, its territories or possessions and all areas subject to its jurisdiction, or United States person, except in a transaction which does not violate the Securities Law of the United States of America. This document is issued by HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited, 8 Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London, E14 5HQ, UK. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and registered as number Copyright. HSBC Global Asset Management All Rights Reserved. This product is marketed in a sub-distributing capacity on a principal to principal basis by the HSBC Global Asset Management MENA, a unit that is part of HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, PO Box 66, Dubai, UAE, which is incorporated and regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Services are subject to the Bank s terms and conditions. HSBC Bank Middle East Limited is a member of the HSBC Group. The information provided has not been prepared taking into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular investor. As a result, investors using this information should assess whether it is appropriate in the light of their own individual circumstances before acting on it. The information in this document is derived from sources believed to be reliable, but which have not been independently verified. However, HSBC Bank Middle East Limited makes no guarantee of its accuracy and completeness and is not responsible for errors of transmission of factual or analytical data, nor shall HSBC Bank Middle East Limited be liable for damages arising out of any person s reliance upon this information. All charts and graphs are from publicly available sources or proprietary data. The opinions in this document constitute the present judgment of the issuer, which is subject to change without notice. This document is neither an offer to sell, purchase or subscribe for any investment nor a solicitation of such an offer. This document is intended for the use of institutional and professional customers and is not intended for the use of private customers. This document is intended to be distributed in its entirety. No consideration has been given to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. Any transaction will be subject to HSBC Bank s Terms of Business /0909/ME 42
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