Religare Morning Digest

Transcription

1 Nifty Outlook Consolidation continued for Indian markets as the benchmark indices ended Wednesday s session on a flat note. The Nifty Index remained in a narrow range throughout the session and closed at 10,417 levels. The broader market indices performance was mixed with BSE Smallcap gaining 0.2%, whereas BSE Midcap ended the day with minor losses. The sector indices witnessed mixed trend with consumer durable, metal and IT being the top gainers, while oil & gas, banking and realty ended the session in the red. Amongst the global markets, the Asian indices ended on a mixed note, while European markets were trading marginally lower. Going forward, market participants would be actively tracking global cues and crude oil prices. On the domestic front, IIP/CPI numbers scheduled tomorrow along with beginning of Q4 earnings season would be keenly watched by investors. We expect volatility to remain high in the near term and hence would advise traders to remain cautious. VWAP (Expiry till date) Max OI (Call) Max OI (Put) NIFTY News Calix announced a strategic multi-year partnership with Infosys, that will accelerate communications service provider (CSP) adoption of AXOS, its Software Defined Access (SDA) Platform. Calix and Infosys will jointly invest to co-create new services and value-added offerings on the award winning AXOS platform. Calix is the leading global provider of the cloud and software platforms, systems, and services. Star Cement said that the company alongwith its subsidiaries have received Rs 80.3 cr towards subsidies claim from the Central Government and this amount shall be utilized towards pre-payment of loans. Himachal Futuristic Communications (HFCL) said that the company has received an advance purchase order worth ~Rs 579 cr. from Bharat Sanchar Nigam (BSNL). The order is for survey, planning, supply, installation, testing, commissioning and integration. The network will include 924 BTS sites and cater to 1,313 villages. Religare Super Ideas** Scrip Buy/Sell CMP Initiation Range SL* Target ARVIND BUY ORIENTBANK SELL FUTS **Please note that the given technical and derivative recommendations are "valid for taking position" only on recommended date and in the given range. *Please note - Stoploss is on closing basis for delivery recommendation and intraday basis for futures recommendation. Derivative Ideas ** Sectors to watch FII & DII Cash Segment (Rs. in Cr.) Trade Stats Instrument B/S Lot INITIATION RANGE SL TAR- GET Sector Name AUTO Outlook STABLE Category Amt. MTD FYTD FII** NO OF CON- TRACTS TURNOVER IN CR IDXFUTS TVSMOTOR BUY 630PE IT FMCG STABLE STABLE DII** **Provisional data as on 10th April 2018 IDXOPT STKFUTS

2 Religare Super Ideas Arvind Limited (ARVIND) Oriental Bank of Commerce (ORIENTBANK) Derivative Ideas TVSMOTOR added around 13% in open interest as short buildup was seen in it in previous session. Current chart pattern too indicate further decline in its price. We suggest buying TVSMOTOR options as per below levels. Strategy: BUY TVSMOTOR 630PE between 11-12, SL 5, TGT 26. ARVIND has witnessed decent rebound from the support zone of 100 EMA on the weekly chart and currently consolidating in a narrow range. We believe it s a normal pause before further up move. Traders should use this phase as buying opportunity and accumulate in the mentioned zone. After the recent bounce, mostly PSU banking counters have reached closer to their resistance zone and we re seeing the same in ORIENTBANK. Existence of hurdle combined with overall down trend is pointing towards correction ahead thus we advise initiating fresh shorts in the given range. Investment Pick - TeamLease Services Ltd. Scrip CMP Recommendation Price Target Duration TEAMLEASE SERVICES LTD. 2,222 2,219 2, Months Established in 2002, Team Lease Services (TEAM) is one of India's leading human resource services company in the organized segment. It has presence in all 29 states with a network of partnerships delivering in over 6000 locations with clients and core employees. We believe implementation of GST and government's push to formalize the sector will benefit organized players like TEAM. We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT to grow at CAGR of 20%/40.2%/28.6% over FY17-20E. We initiate coverage with a Buy on the stock and a target price of Rs. 2,721. 2

3 Religare Investment Calls Name of the Company Reco Date Reco Price Target Price Upside % Previous day Closing Price CRISIL 01-Aug-17 1,858 2, % 1,905.6 LIC Housing Finance 09-Aug % The Byke Hospitality 17-Aug % Tata Communications 18-Sept % GNA Axles 22-Jan % Force Motors 25-Jan-18 3,250 4, % 2,930.5 Swaraj Engines Ltd 25-Jan-18 1,989 2, % 2,019.4 Nilkamal Ltd. 30-Jan-18 1,837 2, % 1,721.4 APL Apollo Tubes 31-Jan-18 2,255 2, % 2,133.0 Symphony Ltd. 31-Jan-18 1,815 2, % 1,848.5 Manpasand Beverages 1-Feb % Bharat Electronics Ltd. 7-Feb % Kajaria Ceramics Ltd. 7-Feb % Mold-Tek Packaging 8-Feb % Srikalahasthi Pipes Ltd 8-Feb % Navneet Education 9-Feb % Castrol India Ltd 12-Feb % Eicher Motors Ltd 12-Feb-18 27,748 34, % 30,685.1 Avanti Feeds 12-Feb-18 2,504 2, % 2,267.3 Talwalkars Better Value Fitness 12-Feb % NRB Bearings 14-Feb % S Chand & Company 14-Feb % Sutlej Textiles 15-Feb % 79.0 Minda Corporation 15-Feb % Wonderla Holidays 16-Feb % Garware Wall Ropes Ltd 16-Feb , % Jamna Auto Industries 16-Feb % 84.7 Fiem Industries 19-Feb , % SML Isuzu 22-Feb , % Asian Granito India Ltd. 22-Feb % Time Technoplast 23-Feb % Century Plyboards 27-Feb % Supreme Industries Ltd. 03-Apr-18 1,195 1, % 1,303.1 TeamLease Services Ltd. 11-Apr-18 2,219 2, % 2,

4 Corporate Action Calendar April 2018 (Cash Dividend) Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Schaeffler India Ltd Foseco India Ltd KSB Pumps Ltd Corporate Action Calendar April 2018 (Stock Split) Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Ruchika Industries India Ltd Atharv Enterprises Ltd Amrutanjan Health Care Ltd Corporate Action Calendar April 2018 (Acquisition) Date Target Company Acquirer Company 4/8/2018 Creative Polypack Ltd Wendel SA 4/9/2018 Marathwada Refractories Ltd Centerac Technologies Ltd Private Investor Systematix Ventures Pvt Ltd Systematix Corporate Services Camden Town Technologies Pvt Ltd Mountain Trail Foods Pvt Ltd Chakr Innovation Pvt Ltd Individual Learning Pvt Ltd Reliance Industries Ltd Pipa Bella Accessories Pvt Ltd Kaleidofin Pvt Ltd 4/10/2018 LoadShare Networks Pvt Ltd QwikPik Technology Co Ltd 4/11/2018 Jyotirgamaya Enterprises Ltd Private Investor 4/13/2018 TCM Ltd Private Investor Bagadia Colourchem Ltd Private Investor 4

5 Research Product Basket For cash market trading Call / Product Call Frequency. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated Intraday Calls Intraday 2-3 < 1 day 25% Live / RMD Calls Daily days 30% Master Pick Weekly 1 1 month 15% Religare Alpha Opportunity NA 2-3 months 20% Cash NA 10% Intraday Calls Live / RMD Calls Master Pick Religare Alpha Cash Total For 1L margin* Per Call 25,000 8,000 30,000 4,000 15,000 5,000 20,000 As per weightage These calls are flashed live on Ms Lync and ODIN with the purpose of squaring off positions on the same day. As a policy, we restrict our intraday cash market calls to less than 4 calls a day. Hence, funds should be allocated accordingly to have provision to trade in all calls. 2 super ideas are flashed in RMD daily with a view of 3-4 days. Additionally as per market opportunity, we flash live calls during the day (including BTST calls). 3-4 such calls are made on a daily basis which might be open for 3-4 days. Funds should be allocated keeping in mind that there will be 7-8 such open calls daily. This is our weekly recommendation shortlisted on the basis of techno-funda analysis. 15% of funds is recommended to be allocated for Master Pick considering that there will be 3 open calls. The average open duration for this call will be 1 month. This is a portfolio of 8-10 stocks which are held with a view of 2-3 months. It is recommended to allocate 20% of funds for building this portfolio which will provide stability to the overall trading portfolio. 10,000 10% surplus cash in the portfolio should be kept for the purposes of allocating it to opportunities as and when they arrive. For derivative market trading Call / Product Call Frequency. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated Derivative Ideas Daily days 40% Live calls Intraday / Daily days 50% Cash NA 10% Derivative Ideas Live Calls Cash For every client, the advisor must allocate a specific proportion of funds for trading and investing depending on the risk taking ability and willingness of the client and their investment goals. The below mentioned product basket tries to address the way to deal with the trading portfolio (cash/derivative) for optimum effectiveness of research calls. It is recommended to divide your trading funds for various types of calls and not invest the entire amount for 1 or 2 calls only. Total For 1L margin* Per Call 40,000 40,000 50,000 50,000 1 derivative idea is shared in RMD daily. It can be a plain vanilla F&O buy/sell call or an option strategy. Funds should be allocated assuming 2 such calls will be open at any time. These calls are open for 3-4 days on an average. These calls are flashed on MS Lync and ODIN during live market hours. These calls can be intraday or with a view of 2-3 days. Funds should be allocated considering 2 such calls will be open at any time. 3/4 times, these calls will be on Nifty / Bank Nifty only. It is recommended to hold 10% cash to capitalize on any opportunity that may arise in markets. 10,000 5

6 Team Members Hitesh Agrawal Ajay Pasari, CFA Ajit Mishra Manoj M Vayalar Mehernosh Khurshed Panthaki Nirvi Ashar Rohit Khatri Suhanee Shome hitesh.agrawal@religare.com ajay.pasari@religare.com ajit.mishra@religare.com manoj.vayalar@religare.com mehernosh.panthaki@religare.com nirvi.ashar@religare.com rohit.khatri@religare.com suhanee.shome@religare.com 6

7 Before you use this research report, please ensure to go through the disclosure inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 and Research Disclaimer at the following link : Specific analyst(s) specific disclosure(s) inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 is/are as under: Statements on ownership and material conflicts of interest, compensation Research Analyst (RA) [Please note that only in case of multiple RAs, if in the event answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) below, are given separately] S.. Statement Answer I/we or any of my/our relative has any financial interest in the subject company? [If answer is yes, nature of Interest is given below this table] I/we or any of my/our relatives, have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent. or more securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or date of the public appearance? Yes I/we or any of my/our relative, has any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance? I/we have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months? I/we have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months? I/we have received any compensation for brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? I/we have received any compensation for products or services other than brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? I/we have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report? I/we have served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company? I/we have been engaged in market making activity for the subject company? Nature of Interest ( if answer to F (a) above is Yes : Name(s) with Signature(s) of RA(s). [Please note that only in case of multiple RAs and if the answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) above, are given below] Copyright in this document vests exclusively with RSL. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any SS... Name(s) of RA. Signtures of RA Serial Question of question which the signing RA needs to make a separate declaration / answer Yes. other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without prior written permission from RSL. We do not guarantee the integrity of any s or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person. 7