2015 Pearson. Why have interest rates been so low?

Transcription

1

2 Why have interest rates been so low?

3 Finance, Saving, and Investment 26 When you have completed your study of this chapter, you will be able to CHAPTER CHECKLIST 1 Describe the financial markets and the key financial institutions. 2 Explain how borrowing and lending decisions are made and how these decisions interact in the loanable funds market. 3 Explain how a government budget surplus or deficit influences the real interest rate, investment, and saving.

4 26.1 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND MARKETS Some Financial Definitions Physical capital is the tools, instruments, machines, buildings, and other constructions that have been produced in the past and that are used to produce goods and services. Financial capital is the funds that firms use to buy and operate physical capital.

5 26.1 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND MARKETS Investment, Capital, Wealth, and Saving Gross investment is the total amount spent on new capital goods. Net investment is the change in the quantity of capital equals gross investment minus depreciation.

6 26.1 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND MARKETS Figure 26.1 illustrates the relationship between capital and investment. On January 1, 2014,Tom s DVD Burning, Inc. had DVD recording machines valued at $30,000.

7 26.1 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND MARKETS During 2014, the value of Tom s machines fell by $20,000, depreciation. During 2014, Tom s spent $30,000 on new machines gross investment. Tom s net investment was $10,000, so at the end of 2014,Tom had capital valued at $40,000.

8 26.1 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND MARKETS Wealth is the value of all the things that a person owns. Saving is the amount of income that is not paid in taxes or spent on consumption goods and services; saving adds to wealth.

9 26.1 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND MARKETS Markets for Financial Capital Saving is the source of funds that are used to finance investment, and these funds are supplied and demanded by three types of markets: Loans markets Bond markets Stock markets

10 26.1 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND MARKETS Loan Markets Businesses often want short-term loans to buy inventories or to extend credit to their customers. Sometimes they get these funds in the form of a loan from a bank. Households often want funds to purchase big-ticket items, such as automobiles or household furnishings and appliances. They get these funds as bank loans, often in the form of outstanding credit card balances.

11 26.1 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND MARKETS Bond Markets Bond is a promise to pay specified sums of money on specified dates; it is a debt for the issuer. The bond market is a financial market in which bonds issued by firms and governments are traded. The term of a bond might be long (decades) or short (just a month or two). Firms often issue very short-term bonds as a way of getting paid for their sales before the buyer is able to pay.

12 26.1 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND MARKETS Another type of bond is a mortgage-backed security, which entitles the holder to the income from a package of mortgages. Mortgage-backed securities were at the center of the storm in the financial markets of Stock Markets Stock is a certificate of ownership and claim to the profits that a firm makes. The stock market is a financial market in which shares of companies stocks are traded.

13 26.1 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND MARKETS Financial Institutions A financial institution is a firm that operates on both sides of the markets for financial capital: It borrows in one market and lends in another. The key financial institutions are : Investment banks Commercial banks Government-sponsored mortgage lenders Pension funds Insurance companies

14 26.1 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND MARKETS Insolvency and Illiquidity Net worth is the total market value of what it has lent minus the market value of what it has borrowed. If net worth is positive, the institution is solvent and can remain in business. But if net worth is negative, the institution is insolvent and must stop trading. The owners of an insolvent financial institution usually its stockholders bear the loss when the assets are sold and debts paid.

15 26.1 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND MARKETS A firm is illiquid if it has made long-term loans with borrowed funds and is faced with a sudden demand to repay more of what it has borrowed than its available cash. In normal times, a financial institution that is illiquid can borrow from another institution. But if all financial institutions are short of cash, the market for loans among financial institutions dries up. Insolvency and illiquidity were at the core of the financial meltdown of

16 26.1 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AND MARKETS Interest Rates and Asset Prices Stocks, bonds, and loans are collectively called financial assets. The interest rate on a financial asset is a percentage of the price of the asset. So if the asset price rises, other things remaining the same, the interest rate falls. And conversely, if the asset price falls, other things remaining the same, the interest rate rises.

17 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET The loanable funds market is the aggregate of the markets for loans, bonds, and stocks. In the market for loanable funds there is just one average interest rate which we refer to as the interest rate.

18 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET Flows in the Loanable Funds Market Loanable funds are used for 1. Business investment 2. Government budget deficit 3. International investment or lending Loanable funds come from 1. Private saving 2. Government budget surplus 3. International borrowing

19 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET The Demand for Loanable Funds The quantity of loanable funds demanded is the total quantity of funds demanded to finance investment, the government budget deficit, and international investment or lending during a given period. Investment is the major item that influences the demand side of the market for loanable funds.

20 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET Investment depends on 1. The real interest rate 2. Expected profit The real interest rate is the opportunity cost of the funds used to finance the purchase of capital. So firms compare the real interest rate with the rate of profit that they expect to earn on their new capital.

21 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET Firms invest only when they expect to earn a rate of profit that exceeds the real interest rate. As the real interest rate rises, fewer projects are profitable, so the smaller is the quantity of loanable funds demanded. As the real interest rate falls, more projects become profitable, so the larger is the quantity of loanable funds demanded.

22 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET Demand for Loanable Funds Curve The demand for loanable funds is the relationship between the quantity of investment demanded and the real interest rate, other things remaining the same. The demand for loanable funds is shown by a demand for loanable funds schedule or curve.

23 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET Figure 26.2 shows the demand for loanable funds. Points A through E on the curve DLF correspond to the rows in the table.

24 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET 1. A rise in the real interest rate decreases the quantity of loanable funds demanded. 2. A fall in the real interest rate increases the quantity of loanable funds demanded.

25 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET Changes in the Demand for Loanable Funds When the expected profit changes, the demand for loanable funds changes. Other things remaining the same, the greater the expected profit from new capital, the greater is the amount of investment and the greater is the demand of loanable funds.

26 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET The many influences on expected profit can be placed in three groups: Objective influences such as the phase of the business cycle, technological change, and population growth Subjective influences summarized in the phrase animal spirits Contagion effects summarized in the phrase irrational exuberance

27 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET Figure 26.3 shows: 1. An increase in expected profit increases investment and shifts the demand for loanable funds curve rightward to DLF A decrease in expected profit decreases investment and shifts the demand for loanable funds curve leftward to DLF 2.

28 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET The Supply of Loanable Funds The quantity of loanable funds supplied is the total funds available from private saving, the government budget surplus, and international borrowing during a given period. Saving is the main item and it depends on 1. The real interest rate 2. Disposable income 3. Wealth 4. Expected future income 5. Default risk

29 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET Other things remaining the same, The higher the real interest rate, the greater is the quantity of saving and the greater is the quantity of loanable funds supplied. The lower the real interest rate, the smaller is the quantity of saving and the smaller is the quantity of loanable funds supplied.

30 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET The Supply of Loanable Funds Curve The supply of loanable funds is the relationship between the quantity of loanable funds supplied and the real interest rate when all other influences on lending plans remain the same. The real interest rate is the opportunity cost of consumption expenditure. A dollar spent is a dollar not saved, so the interest that could have been earned by saving that dollar is forgone.

31 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET Figure 26.4 shows supply of loanable funds. Points A through E on the curve correspond to the rows in the table.

32 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET 1. A rise in the real interest rate increases the quantity of loanable funds supplied. 2. A fall in the real interest rate decreases the quantity of loanable funds supplied.

33 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET Changes in the Supply of Loanable Funds The four main factors that influence saving and change the supply of loanable funds are 1. Disposable income 2. Wealth 3. Expected future income 4. Default risk

34 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET Disposable income is the income earned minus net taxes. Other things remaining the same, The greater a household s disposable income, the greater is its saving. The greater a household s wealth (what it owns), the less it will save. The higher a household s expected future income, the smaller is its saving today.

35 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET Shifts of the Supply of Loanable Funds Curve Along the supply of loanable funds curve, all the influences on saving other than the real interest rate remain the same. A change in any of these influences on saving changes saving and shifts the supply of loanable funds curve.

36 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET Figure 26.5 shows a change in the supply of loanable funds. 1. The supply of loanable funds curve shifts rightward from SLF 0 to SLF 1 if Disposable income increases. Wealth, expected future income, or default risk decreases.

37 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET 2. The supply of loanable funds curve shifts leftward from SLF 0 to SLF 2 if Disposable income decreases. Wealth, expected future income, or default risk increases.

38 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET Equilibrium in the Loanable Funds Market Figure 26.6 shows how the real interest rate is determined. DLF is the demand for loanable funds curve SLF is the supply of loanable funds curve

39 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET 1. If the real interest rate is 8 percent a year, the quantity demanded is less than the quantity supplied. There is a surplus of funds. The real interest rate falls. 2. If the real interest rate is 4 percent a year, the quantity demanded exceeds the quantity supplied. There is a shortage of funds. The real interest rate rises.

40 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET 3. When the real interest rate is 6 percent a year, the quantity of loanable funds demanded equals the quantity supplied. There is neither a shortage nor a surplus of funds, and the real interest rate is at its equilibrium level.

41 26.2 THE LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET Changes in Demand and Supply 1. If the demand for loanable funds increases, the real interest rate rises. 2. If the supply of loanable funds increases, the real interest rate falls.

42 26.3 GOVERNMENT IN LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET A Government Budget Surplus A government budget surplus increases the supply of loanable funds. To find the supply of loanable funds, we must add the government budget surplus to private saving supply. An increase in the supply of loanable funds brings a lower real interest rate, which decreases the quantity of private funds supplied and increases the quantity of investment and the quantity of loanable funds demanded.

43 26.3 GOVERNMENT IN LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET Figure 26.8 shows the effects of government budget surplus. With balanced government budgets, the real interest rate is 6 percent a year and the quantity of loanable funds is $2 trillion a year. 1. A government budget surplus of $1 trillion is added to private saving to determine the supply of loanable funds curve SLF.

44 26.3 GOVERNMENT IN LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET 2. The real interest rate falls to 4 percent a year. 3. The private supply of funds decreases to $1.5 trillion. 4. The quantity of loanable funds demanded and investment increase to $2.5 trillion.

45 26.3 GOVERNMENT IN LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET A Government Budget Deficit A government budget deficit increases the demand for loanable funds. The increase in the demand of loanable funds raises the real interest rate, which increases the quantity of private funds supplied. But the higher interest rate decreases investment and the quantity of loanable funds demanded by firms to finance investment.

46 26.3 GOVERNMENT IN LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET Figure 26.9 shows the effects of government budget surplus. With balanced government budgets, the real interest rate is 6 percent a year and the quantity of loanable funds is $2 trillion a year. 1. A government budget deficit of $1 trillion is added to the private demand to determine the demand for loanable funds curve DLF.

47 26.3 GOVERNMENT IN LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET 2. The real interest rate rises to 8 percent a year. 3. The supply of loanable funds increases to $2.5 trillion. 4. The quantity of loanable funds demanded and investment decrease to $1.5 trillion. Investment is crowded out.

48 26.3 GOVERNMENT IN LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET The tendency for a government budget deficit to raise the real interest rate and decrease investment is called the crowding-out effect.

49 26.3 GOVERNMENT IN LOANABLE FUNDS MARKET The Ricardo-Barro Effect The proposition that a government budget deficit has no effect on the real interest rate or investment. The Ricardo-Barro effect operates if private saving and the private supply of loanable funds increase to offset any government budget deficit. That is, the supply of loanable funds increases by an amount equal to the government budget deficit and the interest rate does not change. Most economists regard this outcome unlikely.

50 Interest rates have been at a record low level since The figure shows that in 2007, on the eve of the global financial crisis, the total amount borrowed in the loanable funds market was $51 trillion. The real interest rate was 2 percent a year.

51 By mid-2009, expected profit had fallen, which decreased investment from $2.2 trillion in 2007 to $1.5 trillion. The demand for loanable funds by households and businesses decreased. The government launched a massive rescue plan, which increased its demand for loanable funds.

52 But the total demand for loanable funds continued to decrease. By 2013, the demand for loanable funds had decreased to DLF 13. The Fed increased the supply of loanable funds. By 2013, the supply of loanable funds had increased to SLF 13.

53 By 2013, the interest rate was 0.5 percent a year and the quantity of loanable funds was $55 trillion. Without the increase in the supply of loanable funds, the quantity of loanable funds would also have fallen. The increased supply limited the decrease in investment and the severity of the recession.