Safe Harbor Statement

Transcription

1 Third Quarter 2009

2 Safe Harbor Statement All statements made during today s investor presentation and in these webcast slides that address events, developments or results that we expect or anticipate may occur in the future are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of In most cases, forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as anticipate, may, should, expect, intend, plan, goal, contemplate, believe, estimate, predict, project, potential, continue or the negative or other variations on these words and other similar expressions. These statements, which include, without limitation, projections regarding our future performance and financial condition, are made on the basis of management s current views and assumptions with respect to future events. Any forward-looking statement is not a guarantee of future performance and actual results could differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking information. The forward-looking statements, as well as our prospects as a whole, are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the following: changes in general financial and political conditions, such as the failure of the U.S. economy to recover robustly from the current recession or the U.S. economy reentering a recessionary period following a brief period of stabilization or even growth, a further reduction in the liquidity in the capital markets and further contraction of credit markets, a prolonged period of high unemployment rates and limited home price appreciation, changes or volatility in interest rates or consumer confidence, changes in credit spreads, changes in the way investors perceive the strength of private mortgage insurers or financial guaranty providers, investor concern over the credit quality and specific risks faced by the particular businesses, municipalities or pools of assets covered by our insurance; catastrophic events or further economic changes in geographic regions where our mortgage insurance or financial guaranty insurance in force is more concentrated; our ability to successfully execute upon our capital plan for our mortgage insurance business (which depends, in part, on the performance of our financial guaranty portfolio), and if necessary, to obtain additional capital to support new business writings in our mortgage insurance business and the long-term liquidity needs of our holding company (including significant payment obligations in 2010 and 2011); a further decrease in the volume of home mortgage originations due to reduced liquidity in the lending market, tighter underwriting standards and the ongoing deterioration in housing markets throughout the U.S.; our ability to maintain adequate risk-to-capital ratios and surplus requirements in our mortgage insurance business in light of ongoing losses in this business and continued deterioration in our financial guaranty portfolio, which, in the absence of new capital, may depend on our ability to execute strategies for which regulatory and other approvals are required and may not be obtained; our ability to continue to effectively mitigate our mortgage insurance losses, which have positively impacted our provisions for losses; the negative impact our increased levels of insurance rescissions and claim denials may have on our relationships with customers; the concentration of our mortgage insurance business among a relatively small number of large customers; disruption in the servicing of mortgages covered by our insurance policies; the aging of our mortgage insurance portfolio and changes in severity or frequency of losses associated with certain of our products that are riskier than traditional mortgage insurance or financial guaranty insurance policies; the performance of our insured portfolio of higher risk loans, such as Alternative-A ( Alt-A ) and subprime loans, and of adjustable rate products, such as adjustable rate mortgages and interest-only mortgages, which have resulted in increased losses and are expected to result in further losses; 2

3 Safe Harbor Statement (Continued) reduced opportunities for loss mitigation in markets where housing values do not appreciate or continue to decline; changes in persistency rates of our mortgage insurance policies; an increase in the risk profile of our existing mortgage insurance portfolio due to mortgage refinancing in the current housing market; further downgrades or threatened downgrades of, or other ratings actions with respect to, our credit ratings or the ratings assigned by the major rating agencies to any of our rated insurance subsidiaries at any time (in particular, the credit rating of Radian Group Inc. and the financial strength ratings assigned to Radian Guaranty Inc.); heightened competition for our mortgage insurance business from others such as the Federal Housing Administration and the Veterans Administration or other private mortgage insurers (in particular those that have been assigned higher ratings from the major rating agencies); changes in the charters or business practices of Federal National Mortgage Association ( Fannie Mae ) and Freddie Mac, the largest purchasers of mortgage loans that we insure, and our ability to remain an eligible provider to both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae; the application of existing federal or state consumer, lending, insurance, securities and other applicable laws and regulations, or changes in these laws and regulations or the way they are interpreted; including, without limitation: (i) the outcome of existing investigations or the possibility of private lawsuits or other formal investigations by state insurance departments and state attorneys general alleging that services offered by the mortgage insurance industry, such as captive reinsurance, pool insurance and contract underwriting, are violative of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act and/or similar state regulations, (ii) legislative and regulatory changes affecting demand for private mortgage insurance, or (iii) legislation or regulatory changes limiting or restricting our use of (or requirements for) additional capital, the products we may offer, the form in which we may execute the credit protection we provide or the aggregate notional amount of any product we may offer for any one transaction or in the aggregate ; the possibility that we may fail to estimate accurately the likelihood, magnitude and timing of losses in connection with establishing loss reserves for our mortgage insurance or financial guaranty businesses or premium deficiencies for our mortgage insurance businesses, or to estimate accurately the fair value amounts of derivative contracts in our mortgage insurance and financial guaranty businesses in determining gains and losses on these contracts; the ability of our primary insurance customers in our financial guaranty reinsurance business to provide appropriate surveillance and to mitigate losses adequately with respect to our assumed insurance portfolio; and the significant concentration of our financial guaranty reinsurance business in customers under common control; volatility in our earnings caused by changes in the fair value of our derivative instruments and our need to reevaluate the premium deficiency in our mortgage insurance business on a quarterly basis; changes in accounting guidance from the SEC or the Financial Accounting Standards Board; legal and other limitations on amounts we may receive from our subsidiaries as dividends or through our tax-and expense-sharing arrangements with our subsidiaries; and our investment in, and other arrangements with, Sherman Financial Group LLC, which could be negatively affected in the current credit environment if Sherman is unable to maintain sufficient sources of funding for its business activities or remain in compliance with its credit facilities. For more information regarding these risks and uncertainties as well as certain additional risks that we face, you should refer to the Risk Factors detailed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008, our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2009, and in any subsequent filings with the SEC. We caution you not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of today s investor presentation. We do not intend to, and we disclaim any duty or obligation to, update or revise any forward-looking statements made during today s investor presentation or included in these slides to reflect new information or future events or for any other reason. 3

4 Who Is Radian? Overview Radian Group Inc., headquartered in Philadelphia, provides private mortgage insurance and related risk management products and services to mortgage lenders nationwide through its principal operating subsidiary, Radian Guaranty Inc. For more than 30 years, these services have helped promote and preserve homeownership opportunities for homebuyers, while protecting lenders from default-related losses on residential first mortgages and facilitating the sale of low-downpayment mortgages in the secondary market. NYSE: RDN 4

5 Who is Radian? Segment Overview Mortgage Insurance Radian Guaranty Inc. (1) (BB-/Ba3) Financial Guaranty Financial Services Radian Asset Assurance Inc. (BBB-/Ba1) Sherman Financial Group 29% Interest $2,532.6 million (2) $5,167.0 million (2)(3) Total Statutory Claims Paying Resources (1) Risk-to-Capital Ratio 16.1:1 as of September 30, (2) Amounts presented as of September 30, (3) Includes $936.4 million of Financial Guaranty capital. 5

6 Radian: Strategic Priorities Continue writing high-quality Mortgage Insurance business into 2010 and beyond Mitigate legacy portfolio losses and reduce risk exposure Work closely with regulators, counterparties and customers Enhance mortgage insurance capital position Improve holding company liquidity position Position Radian for success when markets recover 6

7 Q3 Highlights Risk-to-capital ratio for Radian Guaranty of 16.1 to 1 Radian Asset continues to provide capital support for MI Approximately $935 million in statutory capital for Radian Guaranty Additional $1.6 billion in total claims-paying resources Release of $143 million in contingency reserves in Q4 Writing high quality new MI business $3.4 billion in NIW: 99.9% Prime; 74.6% with FICO of 740 or above Net loss of $70.5 million, or $0.86 diluted per share Increase in loss provision due to higher delinquency counts and continued aging of delinquencies Reduced full-year 2009 MI claims guidance From expected range of $1.1 billion to current estimate of $940 million Continue writing high-quality Mortgage Insurance business into 2010 and beyond 7

8 Radian: Financial Highlights Radian Group Inc. Consolidated ($ in millions except per share amount) AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2009 Assets $8,364.4 Loss Reserves $3,513.0 Unearned Premiums $872.4 Long Term Debt $698.7* Stockholders Equity $2,140.9 Book Value Per Share $25.91 * We repurchased approximately $57.7 million of our first tranche of debt due in June 2011, reducing the outstanding balance on this tranche to $192 million. 8

9 Current Cumulative Rescission Rates By Quarter Claim Received Claim Received Quarter Cumulative Rescission Rate (1) Percentage of Review Completed (2) Structured Q % 100% Q % 99% Q % 97% Q % 92% Q % 63% Flow Q % 99% Q % 98% Q % 95% Q % 91% Q % 66% Total Q % 100% Q % 99% Q % 96% Q % 91% Q % 65% (1) Rescission rates include both insurance rescissions and claim denials and represent the cumulative rate as of September 30, Until all of the claims received during the periods shown have been resolved, the rescission rates for each quarter will be subject to change. (2) For each quarter, represents the number of claims that have been reviewed as a percentage of the total claims received in the quarter. 9

10 Radian: Total Loss Reserves dollars in millions 10

11 Portfolio Management Mortgage Insurance Risk in Force by Product and Primary New Insurance Written dollars in millions RIF $ At Quarter End Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Prime $26,693 $27,205 $27,460 $27,500 $27,405 Alt A 5,125 4,996 4,853 4,712 4,562 A minus & below 2,851 2,750 2,667 2,634 2,552 Pool MI 2,963 2,950 2,911 2,841 2,806 Second Liens NIMS International 8,148 3,927 3,631 3,776 3,448 Other $47,094 $43,020 $42,460 $42,235 $41,475 NIW For the Quarter Prime 98.4% 99.6% 99.8% 99.9% 99.9% Alt A 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% - - A minus & below 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 11

12 First Lien Domestic Portfolio Projected Net Profit Projected Net Profit Increases as High-Quality Business is Added to Portfolio Projections ($ B) Q3 09 Q2 09 Q1 09 PV Gross Expected Losses $4.4 $4.5 $5.1 Reinsurance Benefits $0.9 $0.7 $0.8 PV Net Expected Losses $3.5 $3.8 $4.3 PV Expected Premiums $2.4 $2.4 $2.6 Reserves (net of reinsurance recoverables) $2.7 $2.5 $2.5 Net Projected Profit $1.7 $1.1 $0.9 Assumptions Cumulative Claims Frequency (net of denials and rescissions) ~10.9% ~12.0% ~13.6% 12

13 Managing the Legacy Portfolio Primary Mortgage Insurance Default Rates by Quarter 13 Continue to anticipate rise in delinquencies during the fourth quarter. Expect to pay approximately $940 million in claims for Ultimate claims may be tempered somewhat by loan modification programs and rescissions for loans originated in poor underwriting periods of late 2005 through early 2008.

14 Managing the Legacy Portfolio Default Rates for Recent Vintages Second half of 2008 was a turning point in Radian s book, with greatly improved credit performance 2009 book has significantly lower early default activity than 2006, 2007 and early 2008 vintages 14

15 MI Incurred Loss Trend MI Incurred Losses ($ in millions) (Q3 09 Paid Claims + Reserve Increases = $ 377MM) The change in reserves and loss ratios in the second quarter of 2009 reflects lower than expected claims paid in the quarter resulting from Radian s ongoing loss management efforts. The company continues to anticipate an increase in delinquencies in the fourth quarter of 2009, with estimated claims paid of approximately $940 million for the full year. Incurred Losses excludes Premium Deficiency Reserve (PDR). 1st Lien Claims Paid for the third quarter of 2009 is net of recoveries of $108MM related to the terminations of several captive reinsurance agreements. 15

16 Captive and SmartHome Reinsurance Benefits dollars in millions Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Captive Reinsurance Premiums ceded % of total primary premiums 15.4% 14.7% 16.6% 18.3% 14.3% NIW subject to captives 2, , , % of primary NIW 27.9% 30.9% 18.6% 7.8% 4.2% Primary IIF included in captives 36.6% 34.8% 35.7% 34.8% 34.2% Primary RIF included in captives 41.0% 43.8% 43.4% 47.1% 47.6% Ceded Reserves SmartHome Transaction Premiums ceded % of total primary premiums 1.7% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% Primary IIF included in SmartHome 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% Primary RIF included in SmartHome 3.9% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% Ceded Reserves

17 Financial Guaranty Net Par Outstanding by Product $89.3 billion as of September 30, 2009 (1) dollars in millions (1) Included in the third quarter 2009 public finance net par outstanding is $2.4 billion for legally defeased bond issues where our financial guaranty policy has not been extinguished but cash or securities have been deposited in an escrow account for the benefit of bondholders. The accounting standard regarding accounting for financial guarantee insurance contracts requires that these contracts continue to be accounted for as outstanding contracts despite the elimination of substantially all risk. 17

18 Financial Guaranty Product Line and Sector Mix $89.3 billion in net par outstanding as of September 30, 2009 Public Finance Structured Finance Sector Dollars (in billions) Percentage Sector Dollars (in billions) Percentage General obligations $ % Healthcare & Long Term Care Utilities Transportation Education Escrowed par * Housing Other public finance CDOs $ % Asset-backed mortgage and MBS Asset-backed consumer Asset-backed commercial and other Other structured finance Subtotal $ % Subtotal $ % * Included in Q3 09 public finance net par outstanding is $2.4 billion for legally defeased bond issues where our financial guaranty policy has not been extinguished but cash or treasury securities have been deposited in an escrow account for the benefit of bond holders. The accounting standard regarding accounting for financial guarantee insurance contracts requires that these contracts continue to be accounted for as outstanding contracts despite the elimination of substantially all risk. 18

19 Financial Guaranty CDO Portfolio Ratings Distribution for CDOs: $44.3 billion Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2009 Ratings (1) Number of CDO Contracts/Policies Net Par Outstanding (dollars in billions) Percentage of CDO Net Par Outstanding AAA 385 $ % AA A BBB BIG (2) $ % (1) Ratings are based on Radian Asset s internal ratings. (2) BIG Below Investment Grade. 19

20 Financial Guaranty CDO Portfolio $44.3 billion Net Par Outstanding as of September 30, 2009 Asset Type Distribution (dollars in billions) CDO Trust Preferred, $2.1, 4.7% LO-Corporate Loan <$0.1, <0.1% Second-to-Pay Trust Preferred $0.2, 0.5% Second-to-Pay CDO Corporate Loans, $0.8, 1.8% Assumed CDOs, $1.4, 3.2% CDO of ABS, $0.6, 1.4% CDO-CMBS, $1.8, 4.1% CDO-Corporate Assets* $ % Total CDO Exposure written on a direct basis is $42.9 billion (96.8% of CDO exposure) Total CDO Exposure within the assumed portfolio is $1.4 billion, representing 354 transactions (3.2% of CDO exposure) * Includes two second-to-pay corporate CDOs 20

21 Financial Guaranty Corporate CDO Portfolio Credit Exposure to Direct Corporate CDOs as of September 30, 2009 dollars in millions Year of Scheduled Maturity (1) Number of CDO Contracts / Policies (2) Aggregate Net Par Exposure (2) Initial Average # of Sustainable Credit Events* (3) Current Average # of Sustainable Credit Events* ( 4) Minimum # of Current Sustainable Credit Events* (5) Average # of Current Remaining Names in Transaction (2)(6) $ Total 98 $37.2 (1) No directly insured Corporate CDO transactions are scheduled to mature in 2015 or All of our directly insured corporate CDO transactions are scheduled to mature on or before December (2) Excludes two second-to-pay corporate CDO transactions, with net par outstanding of $113 million. (3) The average number of sustainable credit events at the inception of each transaction. Average amounts presented are simple averages. (4) The average number of sustainable credit events determined as of September 30, Average amounts presented are simple averages. (5) The number of sustainable credit events for the one transaction with the fewest remaining sustainable credit events scheduled to mature in the year of scheduled maturity indicated. (6) The current average number of different corporate entities in each of the transactions. * The number of Sustainable Credit Events represents the number of credit events on different corporate entities that can occur within a single transaction before we would be obligated to pay a claim. It is calculated using the weighted average exposure per corporate entity and assumes a recovery value of 30% to determine future losses (unless the parties have agreed upon a fixed recovery, then such fixed recovery is used to determine future loss). 21

22 Financial Guaranty Direct Corporate CDO Portfolio Underlying Collateral Ratings as of September 30, 2009 Ratings Distribution by Notional* ($ in billions) S&P had a total of 40 rating actions on the underlying corporate entities in the direct corporate CDO portfolio during the 3rd quarter, consisting of 28 downgrades and 12 upgrades. There has been a 60.0% reduction in downgrades from S&P compared to last quarter. Moody s had a total of 58 rating actions on the underlying corporate entities in the direct corporate CDO portfolio during the 3rd quarter, consisting of 49 downgrades and 9 upgrades. There has been a 38.8% reduction in downgrades from Moody s compared to last quarter. 10.8% of the number of Banking/Finance sector names and 5.1% of the number of Insurance sector names in the direct corporate CDO portfolio were downgraded by Moody s in the 3rd quarter. * Indicated ratings category reflects the lower of the ratings assigned to the underlying corporate entities by Moody s or S&P. 22

23 Financial Guaranty Direct CDO Portfolio CDO of ABS and CMBS Portfolio As of September 30, 2009 Type of Collateral as a Percentage of Total Pool Year Insured Legal Final Maturity Net Par Outstanding ($MM) ABS RMBS SubPrime RMBS CMBS CDO of Investment CDO of Grade High Yield Corporate Corporate CDO of ABS CDO of CDO Other Total Collateral Pool S&P Rating Moody's Rating Internal Rating Radian Asset Attachment Point Radian Asset Detachment Point % 49.0% 15.8% 0.0% 7.8% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% AAA N/R AA- 13.0% 38.0% % 21.6% 39.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 3.8% 5.5% 100.0% CCC Ca CCC- * 100.0% % 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% AAA N/R AAA 6.8% 30.0% % 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% AAA N/R AAA 5.1% 30.0% % 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% AAA N/R AAA 6.5% 30.0% % 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% AAA N/R A+ 7.0% 50.0% Total $2,449.3 * We do not currently expect that the remaining subordination will be sufficient to absorb losses from the remaining collateral. Based on currently anticipated cash flows, we expect to begin paying claims in 2010 and possibly earlier if deterioration is worse than anticipated. Due to the structure of this transaction, we do not expect to be obligated to pay claims related to principal shortfalls until sometime between 2036 and the legal final maturity date for the transaction in

24 Financial Guaranty CDO Portfolio CMBS Exposure as of September 30, 2009 Par Outstanding ($ in MM) Radian Asset Attachment- Detachment Points (1) Total # of Reference Obligations * Average Size of Reference Obligations ($MM) Average Subordination of Reference Obligations Total Delinquencies (Average of Reference Obligations) $ % - 30% 27 $72 31% 4.1% % - 30% % 3.3% % - 30% % 3.7% % - 50% % 4.6% $1,831.0 All four synthetic CDOs of CMBS are rated AAA by S&P, the first three of which are rated AAA internally and the fourth is rated A+ internally, and contain 127 CMBS tranches (the Reference Obligations ) issued as part of 88 securitizations. 110 of the Reference Obligations are rated AAA by at least on of the three major rating agencies. The total balance of the Reference Obligations equals $6.8 billion; however, the loan collateral supporting these 127 tranches consist of approximately 15,000 loans with a balance of approximately $195 billion. Underlying loan collateral is well diversified both geographically and by property type. * Radian Attachment Point is the percentage of the losses in collateral pool which must occur before we are obligated to pay claims. The detachment point is the point where the percentage of losses reach a level where we cease to have an obligation to pay claims on additional losses. For example, a 7.0% attachment point on a $1.0 billion collateral pool means that we are not obligated to pay claims until there are $70.0 million of losses and a 50% detachment point means that our obligation to pay claims for losses ceases when the deal reaches an aggregate of $500 million of losses. 24

25 Financial Guaranty CDO Portfolio Trust Preferred (TruPs) CDO Exposure as of September 30, 2009 TruPs CDO CDS Scheduled Termination Date TruPs CDO Maturity Date Net Par Outstanding Subordination after defaults Subordination after defaults and deferrals 1 7/15/2011 (1)(2) 7/15/2036 $ 96,581, % 25.3% 7/15/2016 (1)(2) 7/15/2036 $ 115,897, % 25.3% 2 9/21/2013 (2) 12/22/2036 $ 96,736, % 24.7% 3 10/12/2013 (2) 7/15/2037 $ 141,847, % 31.4% 10/15/2016 (2) 7/15/2037 $ 141,847, % 31.4% 4 11/30/2013 (2) 9/23/2037 $ 85,125, % 30.1% 11/30/2016 9/23/2037 $ 123,706, % 30.1% 5 3/15/2014 (2) 9/23/2036 $ 119,364, % 39.9% 9/23/2036 9/23/2036 $ 190,982, % 39.9% 6 12/14/2016 3/22/2037 $ 137,269, % 25.6% 7 8/4/2017 (2) 12/25/2035 $ 75,981, % 28.5% 8 12/15/2017 (2) 6/23/2036 $ 91,596, % 33.5% 6/23/2036 6/23/2036 $ 91,596, % 33.5% 9 1/5/2033 (3) 1/5/2033 $ 46,285, % 46.4% 10 9/26/2033 (3) 9/24/2033 $ 85,058, % 41.0% 11 12/24/2033 (3) 12/24/2033 $ 33,463, % 38.1% 12 10/19/ /19/2034 $ 47,694, % 34.7% 13 9/23/2035 9/23/2035 $ 87,747, % 33.2% 14 12/23/ /23/2036 $ 139,134, % 38.9% 15 12/23/ /23/2037 $ 206,807, % 27.6% 16 10/10/ /10/2040 $ 158,075, % 31.2% (1) In October 2009, we received notice of an interest shortfall with respect to this TruPs CDO, which constitutes an event of default pursuant to the related indenture. (2) Our counterparties under these contracts may require that we pay them the outstanding par on our insured obligations if a CDO event of default exists on the scheduled CDS termination date. (3) Our exposure to these transactions are on a second-to-pay basis. 25

26 Financial Guaranty Non-CDO Domestic RMBS Portfolio Breakdown by Asset Type: $623.1 million Domestic RMBS as of September 30, 2009 Net Par Outstanding % of RMBS Portfolio Direct Total* Assumed Non- HELOCs Assumed HELOCs Assumed Total % 2006/2007 Vintage Ratings AAA AA A BBB BIG** SubPrime $231.0MM 114 Policies 37.0% $115.2 MM 7 Policies 49.9% $99.9 MM 106 Policies 43.2% $15.9 MM 1 Policy 6.9% $115.8 MM 107 Policies 50.1% 2.8% / 13.1% 21.8% 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 76.2% Prime $165.5 MM 51 Policies 26.6% $121.4 MM 7 Policies 73.3% $1.2 MM 33 Policies 0.8% $42.9 MM 11 Policies 25.9% $44.1 MM 44 Policies 26.7% 3.8% / 15.8% 87.0% 1.9% 0.2% 2.2% 8.7% Alt A $203.7 MM 36 Policies 32.7% $66.8 MM 3 Policies 32.8% $97.0 MM 31 Policies 47.6% $39.9 MM 2 Policies 19.6% $136.9 MM 33 Policies 67.2% 32.0% / 10.8% 54.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45.9% Second to Pay $22.9 MM 8 Policies 3.7% $0 MM 0 Policies 0.0% $22.9 MM 8 Policies 100.0% $0 MM 0 Policies 0.0% $22.9 MM 8 Policies 100.0% 0.0% / 99.8% 0.2% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 81.1% Total RMBS $623.1 MM 209 Policies 100.0% $303.4 MM 17 Policies 48.7% $221.0 MM 178 Policies 35.5% $98.7 MM 14 Policies 15.8% $319.7 MM 192 Policies 51.3% 12.5% / 16.3% 48.9% 1.3% 0.7% 0.6% 48.5% * Radian Asset has no direct HELOC exposure. No Direct RMBS has been written since 2005, and no direct SubPrime RMBS has been written since ** All of the BIG exposure is on Radian Asset s Watch List and reserves have been established for these as needed. Note: Ratings are based on Radian Asset s internal ratings. 26

27 Top Ten Investment Portfolio Risk Concentrations as of September 30, 2009 ($ in thousands) Market Value US Government, Agency & GSE Securities Securities Classifications Municipal Securities Description $ % MBS GSE Notes Uninsured Insured * Prerefunded Money Market Equity Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) $1,085, % $874,295 $210,708 $604 United States Treasury Bond/Note 450, % 450,757 Fidelity Institutional Prime Money Market Portfolio (1) 299, % $299,488 Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp 234, % 186,545 47, BlackRock Liquidity Temp Funds Portfolio ( 1) 225, % 225,524 State of California (2) 211, % $147,611 $64,006 $148 Northern Institutional Prime Money Market Portfolio (1) 179, % 179,652 Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) Securitizations (3) 164, % 144,939 14,890 4,689 Dreyfus Institutional Cash Management Money Market Portfolio (1) 139, % 139,036 Vanguard Index Fund 121, % 121,783 Top Investment Portfolio Risk Concentrations $3,112, % $1,060,840 $708,813 $292,550 $78,896 $4,837 $843,700 $122,749 * Prerefunded bonds are backed by U.S. Treasury and/or agency debt held in escrow, and structured to provide sufficient cash flows to offset the cashflows due on the refunded bonds. At maturity, the issuer will sell the U.S. Treasury securities or agency debt held in escrow and buy back the municipal bonds with the proceeds. (1) Money Market Funds. (2) Includes securities with indirect and/or historical State funding support. (3) Aggregate investment in securities backed by MSA payments (the MSA obligated participating tobacco companies to compensate various US States for health and other tobacco related expenses). 27

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