CWCapital Markets Update

Transcription

1 CWCapital Markets Update Second Quarter 2017 In this Issue: Economy: Steady, slow, and low. Property price volatility in all classes Feature Checking in on the CRE CLO Market Is there value in there somewhere? A portion of the information contained herein is derived from information provided by parties unrelated to us. This publication does not constitute a solicitation to purchase or sell any security or investment, to take any action, nor should it be construed in any way as investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. CWCapital shall not be liable to any party for any matters for any reason, including for any investment decision made by such party based upon this or other information. By accessing and/or reviewing this report, you acknowledge and agree to the foregoing. 1

2 In this issue of the Capital Markets update, we focus on the fundamentals and trends affecting national commercial real estate debt markets and feature a look at the CRE CLO market in search of value. We synthesize and present information gathered from various industry research, public resources, and our own research. The Economy The July jobs report noted that 209,000 jobs were added to the economy, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.3%, matching the levels in The participation rate improved slightly to 62.9%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics notes continued job growth in food and beverage services, professional and business services, and again, healthcare. Average hourly earnings rose by 2.5% year over year, which represents a growing trend. The BLS has previously noted the decline in retail trade jobs. This trend is likely to continue as internet shopping grows. WTI crude oil has traded between $45 $55/bbl for much of The 10 year US Treasury yield at 2.26%, is close to post election lows. We have seen a 2/10 flattening of 32bps YTD. While short rates have increased 50bps, 10yr rates have tightened by 14bps. From a lending standpoint, low rates continue as inflation remains below the Fed s target. The Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate reported GDP growth at an annualized rate of 2.6%, with a revised Q1 estimate of 1.2%. Forward trade policy, deficits associated with tax reform, and geopolitical events could all influence currency and interest rate trends. Property Markets Effective rent growth National average picked up to 3.46% year over year. Multi family at 6.33%, retail at 1.86%. Vacancy rates For the trailing 1 and 5 year periods, vacancy rates have generally improved, however both multifamily and retail are now showing increases year to date. Retail shows a 10bp increase year over year. Multifamily has the highest deliveries in over 18 years. We expect continuing vacancy increases in selected areas. National property prices report declines and volatility in all sectors, although we are still near peak levels. Year over year results for retail show a 12% decline. Interim data is sporadic, but downside volatility evident in all sectors. Debt Capital Markets Q217 CMBS conduit issuance of $11.9bn topped Q216 by 25% as investors became more comfortable with risk retention requirements and the maturity wave. YTD2017 issuance of $20.3bn slightly ahead of YTD2016 of $19.3bn. CMBS risk retention pricing Horizontal subordinates in the 15% area, L shaped subordinates in the 18% area. Current conduit delinquency is reported at 3.89% according to Trepp, with some 80% of such loans concentrated in the 2006/2007 vintages. We see refinance issues with 21% of maturing loans, a trend which has been increasing. Three trends we are watching Cyclical highs in property prices national average hotel, retail, and office property prices experiencing volatility. Risk premiums have widened out year to date in all sectors. As property values increase we see property re levering with less and less sponsor equity. Multifamily valuations relative to cyclical highs, and construction of concern. Transformation of the lending and investing base as conduit lenders and securitized markets withdraw, balance sheet and agency lenders increasing share. Subordinate investor base evolving to a new set of investors, including insurance, funds, and others with long term funding (in addition to traditional b piece/ special servicer firms). Maturity wave and risk retention increased loan defaults as maturities meet the securitized markets. Reduced liquidity, risk retention, bank capital rules, and regulatory requirements. Overall maturity defaults (later than 90 days past maturity) at 21% trending higher according to Morningstar data. 2

3 Feature Checking in on the CRE CLO Market Is there value in there somewhere? 2017 has seen a resurgence in CRE CLO Issuance. At 10 deals issued so far ($3.7bn), we are on pace to the highest issuance in the past 5 years. Multifamily properties make up some 60% of the balance, with 3 deals at or near 100% Arbor and Prima Capital have led issuance (by number of deals) over the past 5 years Collateral loans typically finance transitional properties with a 2 4 year fully extended term Loan spreads average L+500, which is double that of stabilized FHLMC floating rate loans Cost of non risk retention debt for the CLO s has average L+170 Significant levered spreads available to the CLO Issuer Deal > ACR 2017 FL3 GSTNE 2017 FL1A PFP ARCLO 2017 FL1 RAITF 2017 FL7 BSPRT 2017 FL1 RSO 2017 CRE5 RCMT 2017 FL1 HUNTC 2017 FL1 ARCLO 2017 FL2 Issuer Ares Greystone Prime Arbor RAIT Benefit St Resource ReadyCap Hunt Arbor Closing Date Mar 17 Mar 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 Jun 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Aug 17 Aug 17 Collateral Bal Multifamily n/a 100% 37% 93% 46% 28% 62% 25% 59% 100% Other n/a 0% 63% 7% 54% 72% 38% 75% 41% 0% Loan Count WtdAv Spread Notes A B C D E F G PS Total Notes Spread A B C D 305 1, E F G Note A % of Deal 50.0% 56.5% 55.7% 56.0% 56.0% 53.5% 54.0% 58.0% 58.0% 57.0% Debt Issued Cost of Debt Levered Spread Note: Cost of debt includes only those Notes assumed issued and not retained pursuant to risk retention. 3

4 Feature Checking in on the CRE CLO Market - Is there value in there somewhere? Focusing on 2017 CLOs concentrated in multifamily transactions only, we can analyze and evaluate risk premiums associated with transitional loans. We can also benchmark that risk in search of relative value. Borrowers typically pay an additional 260bp for a transitional loan (relative to a FHLMC floater). Risks become apparent as properties are benchmarked. CLO transitional product has more volatility given occupancy disruptions, potential construction delays, cost over runs, and sometimes uncertain demand for upgraded units. Occupancy typically 5 points lower at securitization. NCF per unit is over 37% lower. With a 5pt occupancy variance, CLO properties may naturally command rents some 40% lower than stabilized FHLMC product prior to renovation. No guaranty that significantly increased rents are achievable given product or surrounding area. CLO product shows higher leverage per unit with weaker DSC and debt yield metrics. CLO product typically interest only, whereas stabilized may include mandatory amortization, and or refinance tests. Risk mitigants for CLO Class A s shorter loan term, 260bp premium, lower structure leverage Overall Units Avg Occ NCF / Unit Appraisal / Unit Loan / Unit LTV DSC DY Spread Term FREMF 2017 KF32 14, , ,598 89, FREMF 2017 KF31 12, , ,377 98, ARCLO 2017 FL1 4, ,502 97,757 57, ARCLO 2017 FL2 6, ,863 89,002 44, GSTNE 2017 FL1 6, ,655 70,840 55, RSO 2017 CRE5 2, ,149 99,464 78, PFP , ,904 93,349 71, FREMF Benchmark 27, , ,988 93, CLO Trans Comp 22, ,615 90,082 61, CLO Variance (5.00) (2,777) (45,905) (32,388) 4.80 (0.28) (1.13) 2.60 (50) CLO Variance % 5.0% 37.6% 33.8% 34.5% 6.7% 18.4% 13.9% 2.60 FHLMC Floaters CLO Floaters Control for variables and compare > Tranche Pct Spread Impl DY Tranche Pct Spread Impl DY A 90.0% A 55.47% B 2.5% > Other 44.53% 6.98 C 7.5% % 100.0% For all the potential risks of transitional CLO loans, the senior most bonds may offer an interesting relative value opportunity for those who can hold them. At 55% of the capital stack, implied debt yield on the riskier properties is 12.6% vs 9.01% stabilized. Add an additional 30bps to FHLMC A spread to account for guaranty, and 25bps for liquidity. Low call protection on FHLMC KFs adds volatility and may shorten term to more comparable to CLO. Adjusted spread on benchmark 92 vs CLO A s at 111 shows 20bp relative pick up. CLOs offer shorter term credit risk in an accommodating lending market vs long term risks. 4

5 Selected Market Data Economic and Real Estate Fundamentals and Trends Q2 17 1yr 5yr 10yr Economic UNEMP % 3.80% 0.20% PART % 1.00% 3.20% GDP 14,066 15,230 15,785 18,223 18,869 19, % 4.10% 3.51% CPI TTM 1.77% 1.15% 2.47% 1.44% 1.91% 1.79% 1.26% 0.22% 0.59% UST IMPL INF 2.30% 2.30% 1.96% 1.54% 1.95% 1.73% 0.32% 0.40% 0.65% Interest Rate 1M LIBOR 5.35% 0.32% 0.35% 0.43% 0.77% 1.22% 0.76% 0.92% 4.10% Eff Fed Funds 5.24% 0.18% 0.07% 0.24% 0.50% 1.05% 0.65% 0.89% 4.20% Prime 8.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.37% 3.75% 4.25% 0.75% 1.00% 4.00% UST2 4.82% 0.61% 0.25% 1.06% 1.20% 1.38% 0.76% 1.05% 3.49% UST % 3.30% 1.89% 2.27% 2.45% 2.31% 0.81% 0.64% 2.72% 2/10 Spread 0.11% 2.69% 1.64% 1.21% 1.25% 0.93% 0.05% 0.41% 0.77% Real % 1.00% 0.07% 0.73% 0.50% 0.58% 0.49% 1.04% 2.07% Vacancy (REIS) Multi 5.80% 6.60% 5.30% 4.40% 4.20% 4.40% 0.10% 0.40% 1.30% Retail 7.10% 11.00% 11.00% 10.00% 9.90% 10.00% 0.10% 0.80% 2.50% Office 13.40% 17.60% 17.40% 16.20% 15.80% 16.00% 0.00% 1.30% 3.40% Industrial n/a 14.00% 13.20% 10.60% 10.30% 9.70% 0.80% 3.00% n/a Hotel Rents (REIS Effective) Multi ,010 1,183 1,252 1, % 4.72% 3.11% Retail % 1.83% 0.27% Office % 2.98% 0.65% Industrial n/a % 2.32% n/a Hotel National $PSF (RCA) Multi 113,416 99, , , , , % 8.31% 4.85% Retail % 0.44% 0.36% Office % 4.44% 1.39% Industrial % 10.75% 1.34% Hotel 136, ,350 98, , , , % 11.41% 1.65% National Cap Rate (RCA) MF 6.23% 6.55% 6.26% 5.91% 5.70% 5.60% 0.19% 0.62% 0.69% Ret 6.66% 7.61% 7.41% 6.48% 6.52% 6.60% 0.19% 0.66% 0.13% Office 6.69% 7.57% 7.32% 6.70% 6.59% 6.70% 0.10% 0.49% 0.18% Ind 7.14% 8.23% 7.69% 6.61% 6.80% 6.70% 0.10% 0.67% 0.09% Hotel 8.92% 8.21% 7.94% 8.38% 8.50% 8.70% 0.20% 0.68% 0.22% Risk Premium MF 1.52% 3.25% 4.37% 3.64% 3.25% 3.29% 1.00% 1.26% 2.03% Ret 1.95% 4.31% 5.52% 4.21% 4.07% 4.29% 0.62% 1.30% 2.85% Office 1.98% 4.27% 5.43% 4.43% 4.14% 4.39% 0.71% 1.13% 2.90% Ind 2.43% 4.93% 5.80% 4.34% 4.35% 4.39% 0.91% 1.31% 2.63% Hotel 4.21% 4.91% 6.05% 6.11% 6.05% 6.39% 0.61% 0.04% 2.50% 5

6 CRE Fundamentals Property Price, Fundamentals, and Trends National Average $price / unit Vacancy Trend Year End MF Retail Hotel Ofc Ind Year End MF Retail Hotel Ofc Ind 90, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , H17 141, , H Rent Growth Trend Year End MF Retail Hotel Ofc Ind Peak 163, , Trough 73, , Fall fr ' % 26.55% 56.77% 43.20% 33.07% (1.02) (2.92) (3.68) (8.86) Peak Date Feb 16 Aug 16 Apr 15 Aug 08 Nov (1.43) (1.52) Trough Date Sep 09 Jun 10 Dec 09 Mar 10 Apr (0.06) 2.04 (0.48) Curr vs ' % 12.5% 6.1% 7.6% 22.9% Curr vs Pk 13.3% 21.0% 28.1% 16.2% 6.8% Curr vs Tr 91.9% 53.1% 145.4% 89.4% 83.6% yr GR 8.1% 2.7% 9.4% 1.9% 5.3% 10yr GR 3.0% 1.4% 1.2% 0.1% 1.5% Volatility 12.5% 13.7% 32.5% 18.2% 11.4% Multifamily Retail 180, , , , ,000 80,000 60, ,000 20, Office Hotel , , , ,000 50,

7 CRE Fundamentals New Construction and Delivery Trends Year Multi Retail Office Ind / Whse Notes ,818 25,126, ,280, ,674 27,727, ,061, ,124 33,013, ,904,000 * Record Multifamily deliveries. REIS expects 35% Year/Year growth in ,957 31,369,000 81,422, ,591 29,416,000 41,016,000 * Steady retail deliveries in the last 3 years (approx 9 10mm sqft), ,144 30,596,000 35,475, ,227 34,438,000 39,792,000 * YTD 2017 vs 2016 (annualized) ,205 29,627,000 49,879, ,630 33,254,000 59,902,000 New retail deliveries down 16% relative to 2016's ,330 24,545,000 65,450,000 seven year high at 10.8mm sqft ,775 13,142,000 50,548, ,691 4,499,000 23,375,000 17,234,000 Industrial deliveries trending lower by 10% relative ,489 7,625,000 15,440,000 16,598,000 to 2016's high of 89mm sqft ,399 6,778,000 12,443,000 28,002, ,614 6,883,000 25,959,000 49,178,000 Multifamily some 18% lower from 2016, however, ,358 9,776,000 28,287,000 80,009, recorded the higest level of deliveries in 18 years ,459 9,088,000 36,642,000 86,962,000 Multifamily has been on a 6 year run of incresed deliveries ,243 10,815,000 36,659,000 89,732,000 New household formation and rent vs own preference driving. 1H17 87,706 4,550,000 17,061,000 40,356, ,000 40,000, ,000 Multifamily 35,000,000 30,000,000 Retail 150,000 25,000,000 20,000, ,000 15,000,000 50,000 10,000,000 5,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 Office 90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 Ind / Whse 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000, ,000,000 10,000,000 0 (REIS, RCA)

8 Securitized Markets Type SERIES Pricing AMOUNT SERVICER SPSERV B PIECE #PROP #LOAN RR Type RR Yld CMBS Conduit CD 2017 CD3 01/27/17 1, Midland Midland KKR L BACM 2017 BNK3 02/02/ Wells Fargo Midland BlackRock VERT BBCMS 2017 C1 02/16/ Wells Fargo Rialto Capital Rialto Capital VERT WFCM 2017 RC1 02/28/ Wells Fargo LNR Partners Silverpeak VERT GSMS 2017 GS5 03/07/17 1, Midland Rialto Capital Rialto Capital L JPMCC 2017 JP5 03/07/17 1, Midland LNR Partners LNR Partners HRZ JPMDB 2017 C5 03/17/17 1, Wells Fargo CWCAM MassMutual HRZ WFCM 2017 RB1 03/22/ Wells Fargo C III C III VERT LSTAR /24/ Wells Fargo Hudson Lone Star Funds HRZ CGCMT 2017 P7 03/31/17 1, Wells Fargo Rialto Capital Rialto Capital L BANK 2017 BNK4 04/05/17 1, Wells Fargo Rialto Capital Rialto Capital VERT CD 2017 CD4 04/28/ Midland Rialto Capital Rialto Capital VERT MSBAM 2017 C33 05/04/ Wells Fargo Midland KKR L CFCRE 2017 C8 05/18/ Wells Fargo Rialto Capital Rialto Capital VERT GSMS 2017 GS6 05/19/ Midland Midland KKR L MSC 2017 H1 05/24/17 1, Midland LNR Partners Silverpeak HRZ JPMCC 2017 JP6 05/25/ Midland Rialto Capital Rialto Capital HRZ UBSCM 2017 C1 05/31/ Wells Fargo CWCAM Colony NorthStar HRZ DBJPM 2017 C6 06/14/17 1, Midland Midland KKR L BANK 2017 BNK5 06/16/17 1, Wells Fargo CWCAM Eightfold VERT CSAIL 2017 C8 06/21/ Wells Fargo Midland Eightfold L LCCM 2017 LC26 06/22/ Wells Fargo Midland KKR L WFCM 2017 C38 06/27/17 1, Wells Fargo KeyBank Prime Group L BANK 2017 BNK6 07/14/ Wells Fargo Midland Prime Group VERT JPMCC 2017 JP7 07/21/ Wells Fargo CWCAM MassMutual HRZ CD 2017 CD5 07/24/ Wells Fargo Rialto Capital Rialto Capital L 24, SASB MSC 2017 PRME 01/26/ KeyBank KeyBank 5 1 VERT GSMS L 02/03/ Midland Aegon 1 1 HRZ OMPT MKT 02/15/ Wells Fargo Wells Fargo 1 1 HRZ CST 2017 SKY 03/16/17 1, Wells Fargo Wells Fargo 1 1 HRZ CSMC 2017 HD 03/17/ KeyBank Aegon 2 1 HRZ COLD 2017 ICE3 04/20/17 1, Wells Fargo Trimont 54 1 HRZ GSMS 2017 GPTX 04/26/ Midland Midland 1 1 VERT CSMC 2017 LSTK 05/04/ KeyBank Aegon 1 1 HRZ NCMS B 05/10/ KeyBank KeyBank 1 1 VERT HPLY 2017 HIT 05/10/ KeyBank Strategic Asset 87 1 VERT OT 2017 OT 05/12/ KeyBank KeyBank 1 1 VERT PRKAV P 05/17/ Wells Fargo Aegon 1 1 HRZ CLNS 2017 IKPR 05/18/ Wells Fargo KeyBank 47 1 VERT CGDB 2017 BIO 06/01/ KeyBank Aegon 18 1 VERT DAFC 2017 AMO 06/02/ KeyBank Cohen Financial 1 1 HRZ HMH 2017 NSS 06/09/ Wells Fargo Aegon 22 1 HRZ DBCG 2017 BBG 06/14/ Wells Fargo Wells Fargo 1 1 HRZ JPMCC 2017 MARK 06/15/ Wells Fargo Wells Fargo 1 1 VERT CSMC 2017 CHOP 06/20/ Wells Fargo Midland 48 1 HRZ RPT 2017 ROSS 06/21/ Wells Fargo Trimont 7 1 HRZ BXP 2017 GM 06/21/17 1, Wells Fargo Aegon 1 1 VERT IMT 2017 APTS 06/29/ Wells Fargo Aegon 11 1 HRZ WTOWN 2017 KNOX 07/11/ Wells Fargo Wells Fargo 1 1 VERT MSDB F 07/13/ Wells Fargo Wells Fargo 1 1 VERT CSMC 2017 MOON 07/14/ KeyBank Aegon 1 1 HRZ CGMS 2017 MDDR 07/14/ Wells Fargo Wells Fargo 52 3 VERT JPMCC 2017 MAUI 07/24/ KeyBank Aegon 1 1 HRZ GSMS K 07/26/ Wells Fargo Wells Fargo 1 1 HRZ BX 2017 SLCT 07/27/17 1, KeyBank KeyBank 96 1 VERT 15, Subordinate Buyer Conduit SASB Total Special Service Conduit SASB Total Type Balance Deals Rialto Capital 7, , Midland 7, , , KKR 4, , Rialto Capital 7, , Conduit Eightfold 2, , CWCAM 4, , L 9, Prime Group 2, , LNR Partners 2, , VERT 7, MassMutual 1, , C III HRZ 6, Silverpeak 1, , Hudson , LNR Partners 1, , Wells Fargo 4, , Blackrock Trimont 1, , Colony Northstar Keybank 1, , , SASB Lone Star Funds Aegon 4, , VERT 7, C III Cohen Financial HRZ 8, , , Strategic Asset L 15, Total 24, , , , (Commercial Mortgage Alert, CitiBank Research) 15, , ,

9 Securitized Markets Type SERIES Pricing AMOUNT SERVICER SPSERV B PIECE #PROP #LOAN FREMF 7 Year FREMF 2017 K724 01/13/17 1, Midland Midland Related Cos FREMF 2017 K725 04/12/17 1, Midland Wells Fargo Ares Management FREMF 2017 K726 06/21/17 1, Midland KeyBank Berkshire Group Year FREMF 2017 K61 01/19/17 1, Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Berkshire Group FREMF 2017 K62 02/17/17 1, KeyBank Midland Cyrus Capital FREMF 2017 K63 03/07/17 1, KeyBank Wells Fargo New York Mtg Trus FREMF 2017 K64 05/03/17 1, Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Bridge FREMF 2017 K65 07/12/17 1, Wells Fargo Midland Related Cos Year FREMF 2017 K /19/ KeyBank CWCAM Ang Grdn, McDowe Floater FREMF 2017 KF27 02/07/17 1, Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Bridge FREMF 2017 KF28 03/02/17 1, Wells Fargo CWCAM Kayne Anderson FREMF 2017 KF29 04/04/17 1, Midland KeyBank Priderock FREMF 2017 KF30 05/09/17 1, KeyBank KeyBank Harbor Group FREMF 2017 KF31 06/01/17 1, KeyBank CWCAM Kayne Anderson FREMF 2017 KF32 07/20/17 1, KeyBank Wells Fargo Bridge Jr Lien FREMF 2017 KJ11 01/31/ Freddie Mac Wells Fargo Waterton FREMF 2017 KJ12 02/28/ Freddie Mac CWCAM Kayne Anderson FREMF 2017 KJ13 04/05/ Freddie Mac Wells Fargo Berkshire Group FREMF 2017 KJ14 06/14/ Freddie Mac CWCAM Kayne Anderson FREMF 2017 KJ15 07/25/ Freddie Mac Wells Fargo Ares Management Small Bal FRESB 2017 SB26 01/18/ Freddie Mac Sabal Financial Sabal Financial FRESB 2017 SB27 02/15/ Freddie Mac Arbor Axonic Capital FRESB 2017 SB28 03/15/ Freddie Mac Trimont Garrison FRESB 2017 SB29 04/06/ Freddie Mac Hunt Mortgage Hunt Mortgage FRESB 2017 SB30 05/04/ Freddie Mac Sabal Financial Sabal Financial FRESB 2017 SB31 05/19/ Freddie Mac KeyBank Axonic Capital FRESB 2017 SB32 06/07/ Freddie Mac Trimont Garrison FRESB 2017 SB33 06/16/ Freddie Mac KeyBank Sutherland FRESB 2017 SB34 07/12/ Freddie Mac Arbor Axonic Capital FRESB 2017 SB35 07/21/ Freddie Mac Sabal Financial Sabal Financial SASB FREMF 2017 KIR2 05/18/ Midland Freddie Mac Irvine Co. 4 4 FREMF 2017 KSW2 07/18/17 1, Midland CWCAM Kayne Anderson Wkforce FREMF 2017 KW02 03/22/ Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Bridge Senior FREMF 2017 KS08 05/16/ Wells Fargo CWCAM Kayne Anderson Large FREMF 2017 KL01 05/26/ Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Bridge 2 2 LIHTC FRETE 2017 ML02 06/14/ Freddie Mac Midland , Subordinate Buyer Deals Deal Balance Special Service Deals Deal Balance Kayne Anderson 6 4, Wells Fargo 11 10, Bridge 5 5, CWCAM 7 5, Berkshire Group 3 2, KeyBank 5 4, Related Cos. 2 2, Midland 4 3, Ares Management 2 1, Sabal Financial New York Mtg Trust 1 1, Trimont Priderock 1 1, Arbor Cyrus Capital 1 1, Freddie Mac Harbor Group 1 1, Hunt Mortgage Ang Grdn, McDowell Sabal Financial Axonic Capital Garrison Irvine Co Waterton Sutherland Hunt Mortgage (Commercial Mortgage Alert, CitiBank Research) 36 27, ,

10 Sources The third party Information set forth herein is derived from the following sources: Bloomberg CBRE Capital Markets Citibank Research Commercial Mortgage Alert CRE Direct FHLMC Intex Solutions Maximus Ten X Morningstar Research Moody s / RCA CPPI Real Capital Analytics REIS Trepp Information Systems US Bureau of Labor Statistics US Census Bureau US Federal Reserve US Treasury Wells Fargo Research We do not make any representation regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. In addition, the information contained herein may include forwardlooking statements. Actual events are difficult to predict, may differ from those assumed herein, and will be beyond our control. Any forward looking statement included herein is based on information available on the date hereof and we do not assume any duty to update any such statement. Some important factors which could cause actual results to differ materially from those in any forward looking statements include the actual defaults on the collateral, the timing of any defaults and subsequent recoveries, changes in interest rates and any weakening of the specific credits included in the collateral, among others. The information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation to buy, sell, or take any investment action, nor should it be considered investment, legal, regulatory, accounting or tax advice. Please consult with legal, tax, accounting, or other necessary professionals prior to entering into any transaction based on the information contained herein. Investment decisions made by you based on this information may not always be profitable.