Capital Markets & Government Contracts
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1 Capital Markets & Government Contracts NDIA Atlanta XXIX April 29, 2003 Jerry Van Schaick Vice President and Treasurer
2 Who are the Capital Markets Banks Public debt holders Rating agencies Equity holders Insurance markets All are in a greater or lesser degree of turmoil! LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 2
3 Are capital markets even important? Yes! Provide capital Absorb risk No capital markets support No business! LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 3
4 Banks Consolidating Contracting CONFUSING G!!! LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 4
5 Consolidating Manufacturers' Hanover Chemical Chase Manhattan JP Morgan Bankers Trust Deutsche Bank Citicorp JP Morgan Chase Deutsche Bank Citicorp Nations Bank Security Pacific Continental Bank Barnett Bank of America Bank of America First Interstate Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Crocker Bank LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 5
6 Contracting CALL ME GOLDILOCKS Banks want credits that are Not too strong Narrow spreads, minimal fee business Not too weak Poor credit, non-accrual Just right Good spreads, good credit, lots of fee business LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 6
7 Confusing Inefficient mergers and bad loans are driving banks to re-evaluate evaluate their strategies Many want to be investment banks Some want to be universal banks A few want to use their balance sheets May be running out of credit providers LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 7
8 Public Debt Holders Principally Insurance companies Pension funds Mutual funds Bond issues reviewed by Internal credit analysts, portfolio managers Rating agencies LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 8
9 Key Ratios Earnings Before Interest + Taxes (EBIT) Interest EBIT + Depreciation + Amortization (EBITDA) Interest Funds Flow from Operations Debt Debt Total Capital LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 9
10 Ratings Moody s Aaa Aa1 Aa2 Aa3 A1 A2 A3 Baa1 Baa2 Baa3 Ba1 C S&P AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ C Rating Universe Nobody left up here Top notch industrials, financials Strong companies Could be better / Could be worse Don t go here! LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 10
11 Peer Ratings Peer Peer ratings ratings Moody s Moody s Aa3 A1 A2 A3 Baa1 Baa2 Baa3 LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION Ba1 Ba2 Ba3 B1 JVSNDIA42903.PPT 11
12 Public debt markets want: Adequate coverage ratios Stable or improving trends No surprises LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 12
13 Equity Markets Hopefully ending a historic bear market 4 straight years of decline: straight years of decline: straight years of decline: Future returns possibly modest LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 13
14 Markets are risk averse and volatile Shock and Awe for missed estimates, negative news Significant trading impacts /8/02: Announce realignment of five businesses 7/1/02: Announce $150M WorldCom exposure EDS 9/20/02: Earnings lowered from $364M to $58-74M; S&P & Moody s lowered outlook Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 14
15 Lockheed Martin Fluctuations LMT vs. S&P Overall market movement /11 Flight to safety Sector rotation Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 SP 500 LMT 0 LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 15
16 Reasons for LM stock decline Quick war minimizes need for future military spending, OR Difficult war sucks all R&D / Procurement funding, OR Difficult war results in Democratic president, OR Quick war minimizes need for big ticket programs, OR Quick war allows growth in other sectors to accelerate, OR Make up your own! LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 16
17 Why are stock prices important? Capital flexibility Input to credit risk assessment models LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 17
18 Equity markets want: Growth Dependability Surprise only on the upside LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 18
19 Pensions Elephant in the middle of the party!! LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 19
20 Pension Situation 3 yrs of decline, many plans under-funded Most have returned from their contribution holiday Modest returns going forward, costs will increase Future accounting uncertain Credit and equity analysts grappling with issue But Gov t contractors in better position; CAS cost recoverable Big issue going forward! LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 20
21 Insurance More potential sources of liability Terrorism related issues not solved Costs of coverage increasing dramatically LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 21
22 What do the capital markets want? Predictability and certainty Banks Insurance Markets Adequate returns Equity Holders Public Debt Holders Appropriate risk / return tradeoffs Defusing of pension time bomb LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 22
23 How does government contracting stack up? Pluses + Short-term term predictability + Maximum flexibility + Contractor ability to recover cost Minuses - Limited profitability - Limited growth potential - Risk of major program cancellation - Uncertainty of budget process LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 23
24 Challenge To recognize and respond to the needs of the capital markets while still protecting the interests of the U.S. Government Capital Markets LOCKHEED MARTIN PROPRIETARY INFORMATION JVSNDIA42903.PPT 24
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