Contents. Section I review. Section II business plan

Transcription

1 Business Business Plan Plan Alberto Alberto Nagel Nagel Merrill Lynch Conference, October 2005

2 Contents Section I review Section II business lan 2

3 Profitability boosted review June Y CAGR (%) June 2005 m Revenues GOP Net rofit , EPS DPS % C/I ROE NPL/L Grou 3

4 MB grou reositioning review WB leadershi strengthened EIP new focus on value Integrated offering of advisory, lending and caital market roducts Market-oriented aroach, customer network consolidated Lending rebalanced towards structured finance Prorietary activity emowered Equity distribution significantly increased Paris office set u and develoed Segmentation of ortfolio into strategic and nonstrategic stakes Stakes actively managed strategic tf NAV u 25% to 6bn non-strategic tf halved to 0.9bn Emhasis on rofitability and dividend stream Network of cross-shareholdings reduced June 02 3Y CAGR June 05 June 02 3Y CAGR June 05 Revenues Revenues PBT ROAC C/I PBT RONAV neg. n.m

5 MB grou reositioning review RFS healthy ace set PB business set u Consumer credit: market trend fully exloited with new loans CAGR 20%, outstanding loans doubled to 2.1bn Mortgage lending: new loans CAGR 30%, outstanding loans triled to 1.3bn Leasing: real estate and shiing segment boosted, new agreements (i.e. BPV), new leases CAGR 8% Banca Eseria (onshore) built u swiftly to reach AUM of 7.7 bn, 8 branches and more than 2,000 customers ROE u to 19% Comagnie Monégasque de Banque (offshore) fully owned since 2004 AUM over 7bn, over 12,000 customers ROE u to 13% June 02 3Y CAGR June 05 June 02 3Y CAGR June 05 Revenues Revenues 101 PBT ROAC C/I PBT AUM bn ROAC

6 Revenue mix RFS and PB u to 44% review Revenues trend ( m) Revenues breakdown (%) EIP +149 RFS +72 PB* 1, PB 7 36 RFS 37 44% 252 WB EIP WB 46 June 02 June 05 June 02 June 05 * Banca Eseria equity-accounted 6

7 Dividend olicy review Total dividend ( m), dividend er share ( ) and ayout trend (%) DPS % 58% % 260% June 02 June 03 June 04 June 05 Payout 7

8 Contents Section I review Section II business lan 8

9 Mission transition from holding comany to diversified banking grou Strategic guidelines business lan Profitability and caital reallocation Develo cororate banking Profit u 60%; caital from EIP to banking Increase risk-weighted assets, including through new asset classes Strengthen investment banking To suort Italian industries develoment International reach Larger non-italian customer base Princial investing Comlement WB business investing in selected equity stories RFS and PB momentum Strong RFS and PB growth, both organic and by acquisitions Dividend olicy Attractive ayouts Grou 9

10 2008 Mediobanca grou targets business lan June 2005 June 05 IAS 3Y CAGR (%) June 08 IAS Revenues ( bn) * * GOP ( bn) Net rofit ( bn) EPS ( ) C/I (%) ROE (%) RORWA (%) (*) Revenues from equity-accounted comanies included Grou 10

11 Grou net rofit trend business lan m EIP revenues +100 Costs +100 Cost of risk Taxes Banking revenues June 05 Revenues Costs June 08 IAS comliant Grou 11

12 Caital reallocation Banking:EIP from 2:3 to 3: business lan Banking Allocated K ( bn) WB RFS PB Banking EIP June 05 old June 05 new m Y CAGR (%) June m June 05 old criteria WB = 8% RWA; RFS = shareholders funds; EIP = 100% RWA; PB = invested caital June 05 new criteria WB = 8% RWA; RFS = 7% RWA; EIP = 100% RWA; PB = 1% AUM Grou 12

13 Stakes slit into EIP and WB EIP business lan Caital restructuring IAS 28 (equity-accounted) IAS 39 (market-valued) R A T I O MB as active shareholder in governance Strong imact on MB P&L Re-rating otential Involvement in equity asset class Particiation in consolidation, growth, rivatization and turnaround Strongly linked to WB activity EIP WB BV ( bn) AG and RCS = NAV ( bn) AG and RCS = Target Maximize EPS and DPS Maximize total return WB EIP RFS PB 13

14 EIP 2008 target contribution reduce allocated caital and increase revenues EIP business lan Book value trend ( bn) Shareholders funds allocated to EIP (%) 65% % June 05 June 08 IAS imact 1.8 Revenues trend ( m) June 05 ITAS June 05 IAS June 08 June 05 ITAS June 05 IAS June 08 AG + RCS Others WB EIP RFS PB 14

15 Develo cororate banking gearing u balance sheet WB business lan Enlarge customer base/rwa also increasing risk/return aetite Origination Products International reach New asset class Strengthening lending origination desk Lending oortunities related to inv. banking wider scoe Offer integrated lending-equity-advisory roducts leveraging on the customer relationshis To become the leading bank for cross-borders deals involving Italy further develoment of Paris branch start u oerations in Sain initiate artnershis/alliances with US/UK oerators Enter new asset classes via MB Int.: mezzanine, transition finance, secific situations, NPLs Mid cororate Develo synergies with leasing and PB Extending geograhical reach and emowering coverage WB EIP RFS PB 15

16 Develo cororate banking loan book u 30%, mix imroved WB business lan Outstanding loans trend ( bn) Loan book breakdown (%) / / June 05 June 08 June 05 June 08 IAS comliant Bilateral Structured WB EIP RFS PB 16

17 Strengthen investment banking WB business lan Caital markets and ro. desk Increase treasury rofitability via more sohisticated ortfolio segmentation Develo desk roducts and risk management instruments Position MB as a derivatives house to serve selected customers Primary market: consolidate leadershi in the equity sector Advisory and M&A Provide full suort to Italian industries transformations: concentration within domestic and international comanies from family-owned to listed comanies otimization of caital and/or shareholdings structure financial restructuring solid mid cororate growth Promoting Italian industries leaders WB EIP RFS PB 17

18 Wholesale banking 2008 target GOP u 60% WB business lan GOP trend ( m) Revenues by roducts ( m) NII Fees Treasury Total 290 CAGR (%) Revenues Costs June 05 June 08 NII Fees Treasury Total IAS comliant WB EIP RFS PB 18

19 RFS 2008 target doubling loan book RFS business lan Outstanding loans trend ( bn) Loans by roduct ( bn) CAGR (%) Consumer credit Mortgage lending Leasing Total June 05 ITAS June 05 IAS Leasing PFS June 08 IAS Consumer credit Mortgage lending Leasing Total WB EIP RFS PB 19

20 Consumer credit doubling rofits via major investment in organic growth couled with sizable acquisitions RFS business lan Objectives GOP trend ( m) Increasing contribution of higher-margin roducts (ersonal and finalised loans, revolving credit cards) Exand network: 35 branches to be oened (40% increase on current network) New commercial agreements with insurances and medium size banks Selective artnershi develoment with large retail network in consumer electronics Selected co-branding agreements in credit cards Credit management: very early solicitation rocedures; more effective collection strategy Credit scoring: more effective scorecards (consumer loans and credit cards) 70 June 05 Average ROAC 34% 210 Revenues 60 Costs 70 Cost of risk June 08 IAS comliant WB EIP RFS PB 20

21 Mortgage lending triling GOP RFS business lan Objectives GOP trend ( m) To boost volumes in a favourable market scenario Imroving distribution caacity by targeted new branch oenings along with strengthening sales workforce at existing branches Closer relationshis with estate agents and FAs (incl. networks) Enlarging roduct ortfolio (new mortgages/ insurance roducts) Higher roductivity, driven by more effective service, communication and brand awareness Launch of credit scoring to imrove risk/ roductivity 8 Average ROAC 17% 30 Revenues 10 Costs 5 Cost of risk June 05 June 08 IAS comliant WB EIP RFS PB 21

22 RFS 2008 target doubling GOP RFS business lan GOP trend ( m) GOP by roducts ( m) Consumer credit Mortgage lending Other Total RFS CAGR (%) Revenues Costs Cost of risk June 05 June 08 Consumer credit Mortgage lending Total RFS IAS comliant WB EIP RFS PB 22

23 Comagnie Monégasque de Banque maximize size and rofitability Strategic guidelines PB business lan Leveraging on synergies with MB and BE Onshore activity in Monte Carlo, with key local customers as well as on Cote d Azur, by targeting new haut de gamme clients Geograhic exansion through hiring new gestionnaires secialized in individual markets, and/or start-u of new branches outside France Extension of roduct range (e.g. hedge roducts), incl. by leveraging on BE cometences AUM u to around 8bn by 2008 AUM from 41% of total assets to 50% WB EIP RFS PB 23

24 Banca Eseria the leading secialized rivate bank in Italy Strategic guidelines PB business lan To grow and exand in UHNI market (to be the rivate bank of leading Italian families) increase AUM increase customers coverage and share of wallet increase number of branches and senior bankers invest in tax and legal advisory service To create an indeendent, rivate-label asset management machine imroving both asset gathering and management caabilities extending range of roducts offered: real estate funds, long-only total return funds; full control of hedge funds value chain (internal advisory and indeendent single manager hedge fund ractise) increase roducts with high embedded value maintain orientation to discretionary management (fee based model) increase distribution through other network (rivate and white label) WB EIP RFS PB 24

25 PB 2008 target AUM u 30% PB business lan AUM trend ( bn) AUM by comany ( bn) BE CMB Total CAGR(%) June 05 June 08 BE CMB Total 48.5% BE CMB * Banca Eseria booked rorata WB EIP RFS PB IAS comliant 25

26 PB 2008 target PBT u 50% PB business lan PBT trend ( m) PBT by comanies ( m) BE CMB Others Total CAGR (%) June 05 June 08 BE CMB Others Total IAS comliant WB EIP RFS PB * Banca Eseria booked ro-rata 26

27 MB grou revenues u 50% business lan Revenues trend ( m) Segmental contribution ( m) 600 1, ,090 WB CAGR (%) EIP RFS PB* Grou June 05 June 08 WB EIP RFS PB* Grou IAS comliant Grou * Banca Eseria equityaccounted 27

28 MB grou net rofit u 60% business lan Net rofit trend ( m) Segmental contribution ( m) WB EIP RFS PB* Grou 540 CAGR (%) June 05 June 08 WB EIP RFS PB* Grou IAS comliant Grou * Banca Eseria equityaccounted 28

29 Investment case Closing remarks Keys Proven erformance across cycles Strategy focused on high margin businesses Strong rofitability, with balanced business mix Otimization of risk-return ratio Growth to be achieved by: solid develoment of all four core businesses caital restructuring acquisitions otion Cometitive dividend olicy linked to: medium term caital lanning eer grou analysis of dividend ayout ratio/yield grou oerating and cash erformance 29

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