Poland. First Half of July 30, 2015
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- Lester Garrett
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1 1 Poland First Half of 2015 July 30, 2015
2 Disclaimer 2 Bank Zachodni WBK S.A. ("BZ WBK") cautions that this presentation contains forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are found in various places throughout this presentation and include, without limitation, statements concerning our future business development and economic performance. While these forward-looking statements represent our judgment and future expectations concerning the development of our business, a number of risks, uncertainties and other important factors could cause actual developments and results to differ materially from our expectations. These factors include, but are not limited to: (1) general market, macro-economic, governmental and regulatory trends; (2) movements in local and international securities markets, currency exchange rates and interest rates; (3) competitive pressures; (4) technological developments; and (5) changes in the financial position or credit worthiness of our customers, obligors and counterparties. The risk factors that we have indicated in our past and future filings and reports could adversely affect our business and financial performance. Other unknown or unpredictable factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made and are based on the knowledge, information available and views taken on the date on which they are made; such knowledge, information and views may change at any time. BZ WBK does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The information contained in this presentation is subject to, and must be read in conjunction with, all other publicly available information, including, where relevant any fuller disclosure document published by BZ WBK. Any person at any time acquiring securities must do so only on the basis of such person's own judgment as to the merits or the suitability of the securities for its purpose and only on such information as is contained in such public information having taken all such professional or other advice as it considers necessary or appropriate in the circumstances and not in reliance on the information contained in the presentation. In making this presentation available, BZ WBK gives no advice and makes no recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal in shares in BZ WBK or in any other securities or investments whatsoever. Neither this presentation nor any of the information contained therein constitutes an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Note: Statements as to historical performance or financial accretion are not intended to mean that future performance, share price or future earnings (including earnings per share) for any period will necessarily match or exceed those of any prior year. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast. Note: The results information contained in this presentation has been prepared according to Spanish accounting criteria and regulation in a manner applicable to all subsidiaries of the Santander Group and as a result it may differ from the one disclosed locally by Bank Zachodni WBK S.A.
3 Agenda 3 Macro-economic environment and financial system Strategy and business Results Appendix
4 Macro-economic environment 4 Economic growth likely to accelerate in next quarters Annual GDP Growth (%, real) Interest Rates (%, end year) (e) 2016 (e) Annual CPI inflation rate (%, annual average) (e) 2016 (e) EURPLN exchange rate (annual average) (e) 2016 (e) (e) 2016 (e) Source: The National Bank of Poland, Central Statistical Office and estimates by Santander Research (3 July 2015)
5 Macro-economic environment 5 Strong domestic demand, exports may benefit from recovery in EU Consumption, wage & employment growth Unemployment rate (ILO 1 definition, end year) Consumption growth Real wage growth Unemployment rate (ILO definition, %, year-end) Employment growth in corporate sector (%YoY) (e) 2016 (e) Export and import growth Export of goods Import of goods (e) 2016 (e) (e) 2016 (e) Balance of payments (% of GDP) Current account balance Trade balance (e) 2016 (e) Source: The National Bank of Poland, Central Statistical Office and estimates by Santander Research (3 July 2015); 1 ILO: International Labour Organisation
6 Financial system: Loan and Deposit growth 6 Financial system with stable growth rates PLNbn. YoY (%) Total loans , % 7.1% 7.3% 4.4% 5.2% Jun.14 Sep.14 Dec.14 Mar.15 Jun.15 Total deposits Stable loan growth driven by credit for investment (ca. 10% YoY), mortgages (ca. 9% YoY) and consumption (ca. 5.4% YoY) Low interest rates and high GDP growth should support further loan growth YoY (%) % 7.5% % 8.2% 7.9% Stable deposit growth driven by household (ca. 8.4% YoY) and corporate (ca. 10.3% YoY) Deposits are expected to grow by 7% in 2015 Jun.14 Sep.14 Dec.14 Mar.15 Jun.15 Source: The National Bank of Poland
7 Agenda 7 Macro-economic environment and financial system Strategy and business Results Appendix
8 Our Franchise Bank Zachodni WBK: The number 3 bank in Poland 8 BZ WBK Branches EUR June'15 Var. YoY Business and Results Gdańsk Pomorskie 17 7 Zachodnio- Warmińsko- Pomorskie Mazurskie Szczecin Poznań Kujawsko- Pomorskie Mazowieckie Podlaskie Łódź Warsaw Lubuskie Wielkopolskie Lublin Wroclaw Dolnośląskie Łódzkie Opolskie Częstochowa 9 Lubelskie Świętokrzyskie Śląskie Kraków 19 5 Podkarpackie 53 8 Małopolskie BZ WBK Branches: 769 BZ WBK Partner Outlets: 115 Gross loans 19.3 bn. 8% Deposits 20.2 bn. 11% Total customer funds 24.0 bn. 11% Consolidated profit 236 mill. 0% Attributable profit 173 mill. -1% Network and Customers Customers 4,3m Branches 769 ATMs 1,388 Market Share * Loans 8.86% Deposits 9.09% * Market share as of month May 2015 and including Santander Consumer Business (SCB) in Poland
9 Commercial focus / strategy 9 Total deposits Active deposit management Demand deposits +26% YoY Time accounts +7% YoY J'14 D'14 J'15 Gross loans Improving loan mix Total gross loans + 8% YoY J'14 D'14 J'15 LTD ratio Strong liquidity 93% 84% 91% Strong liquidity position J'14 D'14 J'15 Constant EUR billion * As of June 30, 2015
10 Commercial focus / strategy 10 Consumer loans * (gross) Consumer credit Consumer credit + 6% YoY J'14 D'14 J'15 Mortgage loans (gross) Mortgage loans Mortgage new production in H % YoY J'14 D'14 J'15 SME (gross) SME loans SME loan new production In H % YoY J'14 D14 J'15 Constant EUR billion. As of June 30, 2015 * Consumer loan volume - cash loan, credit card and overdraft.
11 Loan performance 11 Total Gross Loan portfolio 8%YoY and 3%QoQ, driven by Cash loans, Mortgages and SME s Constant EUR billion* Total gross loans Jun' 15 YoY (%) QoQ (%) +8% J'14 S'14 D'14 M'15 J'15 Individuals 9,1 9% 5% Mortgage 7,1 10% 5% Cash loans 1,5 8% 2% Other personal 0,6 2% 5% Companies 10,2 7% 2% SME 2,8 13% 9% Corporate 4,1 8% 3% Property 1,6-6% 7% GBM 1,6 5% -16% Total Gross Loans 19,3 8% 3% * As of June 30, 2015
12 Total customer funds 12 Deposit growth +11% YoY Constant EUR billion* Total deposits Jun' 15 Jun' 14 YoY (%) QoQ (%) % Demand 6,8 5,4 26% 4% Savings 3,9 3,9 1% -5% Time 9,5 8,9 7% 1% Total 20,2 18,2 11% 1% J'14 S'14 D'14 M'15 J'15 FUM 3,8 3,5 7% 1% Total customer funds 24,0 21,7 11% 1% * As of June 30, 2015
13 Agenda 13 Macro-economic environment and financial system Strategy and business Results Appendix
14 Net Interest Income and Spreads 14 Constant EUR million* Close management of NII in low interest rate environment Loan spreads, % Net Interest Income Retail Banking Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Deposit spreads, % 2Q 14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Retail Banking Net interest margin 1 (%) Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 *At average exchange rate as of June 2015 (1) Local criteria, including SWAP points
15 Net Fees 15 Fee generation improving QoQ Constant EUR million* Net Fees 6M'15 6M'14 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Cards % 13% Customer % 1% Loan + Insurance % -1% Capital market fees % 16% Other % 34% Total % 7% 2Q 14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 *At average exchange rate as of June 2015 Capital market fees include Investment Funds fees (distribution and management), Brokerage Fees and Issue Arrangement fees
16 Gross income Gross income -2% YoY. Impacted by lower interest rates and tougher regulations 16 Constant EUR million* Gross income 6M'15 6M'14 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Interest Income % -2% Net Fees % 7% Subtotal % 1% Gain/losses on financial transactions % -67% Other % n.s. 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Gross Income % -4% (*) At average exchange rate as of June 2015
17 Operating expenses 17 Operating expenses under tight control Constant EUR million* Operating expenses 6M'15 6M'14 YoY (%) QoQ (%) General and administrative expenses (277) (273) 2% -1% Depreciation and amortisation (24) (24) -2% -4% Operating expenses (301) (297) 1% -1% Efficiency ratio (with amortisations) 44.5% 42.8% +1.7 pp +0.7 pp 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Number of branches Number of employees 11,763 12, * At average exchange rate as of June 2015
18 Net operating income after loan-loss provisions 18 Constant EUR million* Stable credit quality with room for improvement going forward LLPs and Cost of credit 6M'15 6M'14 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Cost of credit 0.92% 0.95% 1.04% 1.00% 1.00% Net Operating Income % -6% LLPs (85) (86) -1% 14% Net loan-loss provisions Net operating income after LLPs % -11% NPL ratio 7.07% 7.42% NPL Coverage ratio 63.5% 65.3% 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 (*) At average exchange rate as of June 2015
19 Attributable profit 19 QoQ Attributable profit impacted by lower NII and Gains on financial transactions in Q2 15 Constant EUR million* Attributable profit M'15 6M'14 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Profit before taxes % -12% Tax on profit (51) (55) -6% -19% Net income % -11% Attributable profit % -8% Effective tax rate 17,8% 18,7% 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 (*) At average exchange rate as of June 2015
20 Conclusions 20 Market Environment & Financial System Poland s economy started 2015 on a solid note, with GDP growth accelerating to 3.6%YoY in 1Q15, fuelled by strong private consumption, accelerating exports and buoyant fixed investments. Economic growth will continue to speed up towards 4% at the end of the year. External demand should keep growing and the PLN rate remains competitive. Consumption and investment growth are likely to remain strong, supported by record low interest rates and low commodity prices. Inflation started bottoming out after reaching a trough at -1.6%YoY in February. We forecast the core inflation to climb above 1% yet before the end of Interest rates are expected to remain at the record-low level of 1.5% for the next 12 months. Strategy & Business Business strategy is focused on gathering new customers through the development of our multi-channel approach and increasing loans and related fee income from the Consumer, SME, Leasing, Factoring, Business & Corporate and GBM segments. Sales efforts supported by marketing campaign for new and existing products. Increasing level of customer activity and related income offset by macro / regulatory issues low interest rates and increasing regulatory costs. Close management of Net Interest Income in low interest rate environment. Results Fees lower YoY due to the regulation of interchange fees since mid Costs under tight control, QoQ reduction in staff costs and depreciation. Stable credit quality with room for improvement going forward. Year-on-year profit 1% lower due to lower interest rates and higher regulatory impacts.
21 Agenda 21 Macro-economic environment and financial system Strategy and business Results Appendix
22 Balance Sheet 22 EUR million. Constant currency* Variation Amount % Loans and credits* ,3 Trading portfolio (w/o loans) ,0 Available-for-sale financial assets ,1 Due from credit institutions* ,8 Intangible assets and property and equipment ,6 Other assets (889) (34,9) Total assets/liabilities & shareholders' equity ,8 Customer deposits* ,0 Marketable debt securities* ,1 Subordinated debt (233) (70,0) Insurance liabilities 78 (78) (100,0) Due to credit institutions* ,0 Other liabilities ,0 Stockholders' equity** ,0 Off-balance-sheet funds ,6 Mutual funds ,8 Pension funds Managed portfolios ,1 Customer funds under management ,4 * As of * Includes all stock of concept classified in the balance sheet ** Capital + reserves + retained profit + valuation adjustments
23 Income Statement 23 EUR million. Constant currency* Variation 1H 15 1H 14 Amount % Net interest income (46) (10,7) Net fees (13) (5,6) Gains (losses) on financial transactions ,5 Other operating income** (13) (53,6) Gross income (17) (2,5) Operating expenses (301) (297) (4) 1,4 General administrative expenses (277) (273) (4) 1,6 Personnel (162) (155) (8) 4,9 Other general administrative expenses (115) (118) 3 (2,7) Depreciation and amortisation (24) (24) 0 (1,6) Net operating income (21) (5,4) Net loan-loss provisions (85) (86) 1 (1,0) Other income (3) (19) 16 (83,9) Profit before taxes (5) (1,6) Tax on profit (51) (55) 3 (6,3) Profit from continuing operations (1) (0,5) Net profit from discontinued operations Consolidated profit (1) (0,5) Minority interests ,4 Attributable profit to the Group (1) (0,8) * As of exchange rate 1H'15 ** Including dividends, income from equity-accounted method and other operating income/expenses
24 Quarterly statement of income 24 EUR million. Constant currency* 1Q 14 2Q 14 3Q 14 4Q 14 1Q 15 2Q 15 Net interest income Net fees Gains (losses) on financial transactions Other operating income** (5) 16 Gross income Operating expenses (148) (149) (145) (146) (151) (150) General administrative expenses (136) (137) (132) (133) (139) (138) Personnel (78) (77) (77) (81) (82) (80) Other general administrative expenses (58) (60) (55) (53) (57) (58) Depreciation and amortisation (12) (12) (12) (13) (12) (12) Net operating income Net loan-loss provisions (43) (42) (44) (58) (40) (45) Other income (3) (16) 8 22 (1) (2) Profit before taxes Tax on profit (27) (28) (34) (48) (28) (23) Profit from continuing operations Net profit from discontinued operations Consolidated profit Minority interests Attributable profit to the Group * As of exchange rate 1H'15 ** Including dividends, income from equity-accounted method and other operating income/expenses
25 25
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