2016 the year of Answers. David Casey, Managing Director

Transcription

1 2016 the year of Answers David Casey, Managing Director January

2 Disclaimer Important Notice This presentation does not constitute investment advice. Neither this presentation nor the information contained in it constitutes an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation in relation to the purchase or sale of shares in any jurisdiction. Shareholders should not rely on this presentation. This presentation does not take into account any person's particular investment objectives, financial resources or other relevant circumstances and the opinions and recommendations in this presentation are not intended to represent recommendations of particular investments to particular persons. All securities transactions involve risks, which include (among others) the risk of adverse or unanticipated market, financial or political developments. The information set out in this presentation does not purport to be all inclusive or to contain all the information which its recipients may require in order to make an informed assessment of Petrel. You should conduct your own investigations and perform your own analysis in order to satisfy yourself as to the accuracy and completeness of the information, statements and opinions contained in this presentation. To the fullest extent permitted by law, the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of any information, statements, opinions, estimates, forecasts or other representations contained in this presentation. No responsibility for any errors or omissions from this presentation arising out of negligence or otherwise is accepted. This presentation may include forward looking statements. Forward looking statements are only predictions and are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions which are outside the control of Petrel. These risks, uncertainties and assumptions include commodity prices, currency fluctuations, economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions, environmental risks and legislative, fiscal or regulatory developments, political risks, project delay or advancement, approvals and cost estimates. Actual values, results or events may be materially different to those expressed or implied in this presentation. Given these uncertainties, readers are cautioned not to place reliance on forward looking statements. Any forward looking statements in this presentation speak only at the date of issue of this presentation. Subject to any continuing obligations under applicable law and the ASX Listing Rules, Petrel does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any information or any of the forward looking statements in this presentation or any changes in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such forward looking statement is based. 2

3 Prospective Resources - ASX Disclosures Salto & Piedra Sola Concessions*^ 51% Net to Petrel (Conventional only) Prospective Resource^# Original Oil & Gas In Place Oil (MMBBL) Gas (BCF) Oil (MMBBL) Gas (BCF) Low Estimate (P90) * Best Estimate (P50) High Estimate (P10)* The estimates of net volumes provided in this statement were derived from estimates of gross volumes for each prospect and lead determined by Mr Phil Hodgson, a full time employee of Netherland, Sewell and Associates Inc., Dallas, Texas, USA, on 14 May 2015, in accordance with Petroleum Resources Management System guidelines. Mr Phil Hodgson is a Licensed Petroleum Geologist in the State of Texas, a qualified person as defined under the ASX Listing Rule 5.41 and has consented to the use of the gross resource figures in this announcement. Tesorillo *^ 43.35% Net to Petrel Low Estimate (P90) * Best Estimate (P50) High Estimate (P10)* Prospective Resource^ BCF Original Gas In Place^ BCF The estimates of net volumes provided in this statement were derived from estimates of gross volumes for each prospect determined by Mr Dan Walker, a full time employee of Netherland, Sewell and Associates Inc., Dallas, Texas, USA, on 5 May 2015, in accordance with Petroleum Resources Management System guidelines. Mr Dan Walker is a Licensed Petroleum Geologist, a qualified person as defined under the ASX Listing Rule 5.41 and has consented to the use of the gross resource figures in this announcement. *The estimated quantities of petroleum that may potentially be recovered by the application of a future development project(s) relate to undiscovered accumulations. These estimates have both an associated risk of discovery and a risk of development. Further exploration appraisal and evaluation is required to determine the existence of a significant quantity of potentially moveable hydrocarbons. ^Prospective Resource assessments are estimated using probabilistic methods in accordance with PRMS standards. Oil and gas Reserves and Contingent Resources cannot be estimated under SPE-PRMS Guidelines with currently available data. # Volumes above are based on arithmetic summation and are not adjusted for risk of discovery or risk of development. Arithmetic sums of unrisked prospective resources beyond the prospect and lead levels are not reflective of volumes that can be expected to be recovered and are therefore not included in Netherland, Sewell & Associates, Inc.'s certification. Because of the geologic risk associated with each prospect and lead, meaningful totals beyond these levels can be defined only by summing risked prospective resources. Such risk is often significant. Petrel is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates of reserves and contingent resources and the relevant market announcements referenced continue to apply and have not materially changed. 3

4 2015 has been a difficult year with the Energy Industry being asked some challenging questions 4

5 2015 year of questions for Industry? Can the energy industry adjust to challenging times? Can the unconventionals compete? How do small companies survive? How low can prices go? 5

6 2016 some obvious answers? Lower technical and sovereign risk Lower cost operations Company rationalization More profitable higher return markets Offshore vs onshore Conventional vs unconventional 6

7 2015 Petrel was no different? Conventional or unconventional? Are there any potential partners? Can Petrel go it alone? Are there drillable targets? Diversified portfolio? 7

8 So with all these challenges how is Petrel placed to compete and ultimately succeed in 2016 and beyond 8

9 The road to success Having already identified and confirmed material assets with certified Prospective Resources in Uruguay & Spain Petrel has taken a significant first step 9

10 The road to success? The value proposition may have a few more turns in 2016 but success is still achievable if?? 10

11 So to succeed in

12 The road to success companies need to: Have material assets with significant upside potential Low exploration and development costs Have a diversified portfolio of play and commodity (gas & oil) types Have access to high value gas markets In challenging times companies must be able to differentiate themselves and Petrel is ideally placed to do this 12

13 Upside Potential Gross unrisked Prospective Resource for Uruguay 910 MMBBL oil and 3.1TCF gas Spain of 2.3TCF World class source rocks and reservoir potential 2016/17 exploration programme alone potentially targeting Shallow AVO well - Prospective Resource P50:240 BCF Remaining 3 wells OGIP P90=946 BCF and OOIP P90=1,458 MMB Current resource is for conventional only and excludes any unconventional oil and gas potential Current resources very likely conservative with significant and material upside potential 13

14 Evidence of Oil Corehole results confirm existence of an active petroleum system Multiple world class mature source rocks identified Free oil identified across majority of Piedra Sola block Uruguay Corehole Achar E-1; Oil leaching from Devonian sandstones just below Cordobes Shales ( m) Significant conventional reservoir potential Permeability = 20.5 darcies Permeability = 30.9 darcies Excellent porosity and permeability measured from sandstone core samples. Porosities commonly greater than 20% with measured permeability in the Darcy (1000md) range in some samples World class source and reservoir rocks 14

15 Seismic Confirmed Upside Identified multiple new large conventional targets, significantly, many at relatively shallow depths NSAI certified resources estimates of up to 910MMBBL oil and 3.1TCF gas in place Currently 20 conventional leads (one prospect) with estimates of up to 700MMBBL OOIP and over 900BCF OGIP for individual structures Seismic has identified a deeper pre- Devonian sedimentary sequence which could contain additional hydrocarbon potential Seismic has confirmed potential of significant resource scope and scale 15

16 Diversified Portfolio Oil and gas Conventional and unconventional Different conventional stratigraphic targets and play types Local, regional and international markets High priced regional gas markets Diversified portfolio is more important when volatility is high 16

17 and gas? Recent amplitude versus offset analysis (AVO) particularly at the top of structural highs as seen here may represent the presence of gas-filled sandstone reservoirs Where there s gas there s oil This prospect alone has over 700BCF of OGIP potential 17

18 Considerable regional markets Uruguay currently imports 40,000 bopd into La Teja Refinery in Montevideo Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil have gas deficits Buenos Aires consumes ~1.4 bcf/day (and up to 5x in winter peaks) South Brazil consumes ~3.5 bcf/day (50% imported) Market access Uruguay has ready access into South American pipeline network and deep water port facilities in Montevideo Spain asset 3km from 40 gas pipeline Gas prices* in Argentina and Spain are US$7 and US$6 respectively * FERC $US/MMBtu. Landed prices based on a netback calculation High priced regional gas markets are attractive in a low oil price environment 18

19 Low Cost Multiple shallow and consequently low cost conventional targets Large conventional structures improve economics Very high porosity and permeability potentially maximizes recovery efficiencies and minimizes costs Total 2016/17 drilling budget of $3.5m for SEI to drill 4 exploration wells to address conventional and unconventional oil and gas potential Industry down turn has resulted in lowest rig rates in years 19

20 2016/17 work programme 4 well programme across 3.5m acre Piedra Sola & Salto concessions Maximum depths 1500m 3 wells address key questions around stratigraphy, maturity, migration and reservoir/source rock quality 4 th well Buena Vista is a shallow AVO target with Prospective (P50) Resource of 240 BCF Significantly although not the primary focus all wells targeting structural highs Low cost potentially high return exploration programme 20

21 So where does Petrel stand in

22 What makes Petrel different? New counterparties continue to be interested in the Project as some existing projects are now priced out of the market Low cost conventional exploration possible whilst holding onto unconventional acreage Conventional structures provide potential for early encouragement Scale of resource from only modest exploration points to large scale project and interest from larger players Access to a US$7 MMBTU gas markets offers enviable diversity in the current oil market Modest assumptions of US$1 NPV per MMBTU (risked 80%) provide a NPV for Petrel s share of the first AVO well double that of Petrel s current market cap 22

23 The road to success Petrel is well positioned to excel in low oil cost environment 23

24 CONTACT Office Location Level 6, 10 Bridge Street Sydney NSW 2000 P (02)