GPR/APREA AsiaPac Performance Snapshot

Transcription

1 Asia Pacific Real Estate Association March 2018 GPR/APREA AsiaPac Performance Snapshot...your guide to listed real estate returns in AsiaPac

2 What is the GPR/APREA snapshot? The GPR/APREA AsiaPac Performance Snapshot tracks the dynamics of listed real estate securities (including REITs) across 12 AsiaPac countries and eight sectors, over multiple time horizons. The following asset classes are covered: Listed real estate (including REITs): GPR/APREA Composite Index REITs: GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index Equities: MSCI Asia Pacific Equities Index Bonds: JPM Govt Bonds Asia Pacific Overview March 2018 Following the early-february stock market correction, the focus is now centred on the recovery performance of rival asset classes, regions and sectors. The latest edition of the GPR/APREA AsiaPac Performance Snapshot reveals these noteworthy results: All Asset Classes: Listed real estate posted the strongest recovery Listed real estate recorded the strongest recovery from -5.9% total return in February to +0.01% total return in March, followed by REITs -0.2% in March versus -3.5% in February. Asian government bonds posted the highest total return of 1.0% in March, followed by Asian listed real estate (0.01% total return). Listed Real Estate: China and residential sector outperform China (4.4%) and Taiwan (3.1%) recorded the highest total returns in March. Listed residential companies recovered from being the hardest hit sector (-7.2%) to the top performing listed real estate sector (+1.7%) in March. REITs: Singapore REITs recovered strongest Singapore REITs recovered strongest with a positive total return of 1.3%, compared to -6.4% in February. Residential REITs remained the most resilient registering a positive total return of 0.8% in March and the least negative return in February (-0.8%). Asia versus the World: Asian REITs most resilient in Q The GPR 250 REIT Index provides a benchmark for comparing global performance based on larger cap stocks. Asian REITs recorded the least negative return of -0.3% in Q1 2018, compared to -7.4% in the USA and -4.4% in Europe. Asia s 36-month REIT volatility of 12.1% is lower than all other regions. P a g e 2

3 March 2018 Results total returns % Total Returns (USD) Mar-18 1yr 3yrs* 5yrs* 10yrs* GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate GPR/APREA REITs MSCI Asia Pacific Equities JPM Govt Bonds Asia Pacific *Annualised compound growth Total Returns - key results Government bonds posted the highest total return in March Equities and listed real estate were the strongest performers over the past five years. On a ten-year basis, REITs outpaced rival asset classes, followed by listed real estate. 6% March 2018 Yields 15% Volatility (three years to March 2018) 4% 4.7% 10% 13.0% 11.7% 13.0% 2% 3.4% 5% 6.2% 0% Listed RE REITs 0% Listed RE REITs Equities Govt Bonds Correlation listed real estate (three years to March 2018) Correlation REITs (three years to March 2018) vs REITs vs Equities vs Govt Bonds vs Listed RE vs Equities vs Govt Bond Yields, Volatility and Correlation - key results REITs yields in March were higher than listed real estate yields by around 130 basis points. Listed real estate was more volatile than REITs by around 130 basis points over the past three years. REITs displayed a much lower correlation with equities than listed real estate and are more correlated with bonds. P a g e 3

4 Indexed Total Returns to 31 March 2018 (2002=) REITs and listed real estate long-term performance REIT Index Listed RE Index Equity Index Bond Index Annual REIT Returns from Capital and Income 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% REITs deliver stable long-term average returns of 6.2% annualised over 17 years. The YTD returns are -1.4% (capital return) and positive 1.0% (income return). -60% Income Return Capital Return P a g e 4

5 GPR/APREA AsiaPac Performance Snapshot March 2018 GPR/APREA Composite Listed Real Estate Index March 2018 % Total Returns (USD) Mar-18 1yr 3yrs* 5yrs* 10yrs* Australia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Malaysia New Zealand Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand *Annualised compound growth Listed Real Estate key results by country/region March pace setters were China and Taiwan. The top-performing listed real estate markets for the past 12 months are China, followed by India. China stood out on a three-year and five-year basis. The Philippines posted the best performance over a 10-year horizon. GPR/APREA Composite Listed Real Estate Country Index over the Long-Term Country Index of Listed Real Estate Total Returns 10 Years to 31 March 2018 (2008=) China Australia India Indonesia Japan Taiwan (Large GDP countries) Hong Kong Malaysia New Zealand Philippines Singapore Thailand (Mid-sized GDP countries) P a g e 5

6 GPR/APREA Composite Listed Real Estate Sector Index March 2018 % Total Returns (USD) Mar-18 1yr 3yrs* 5yrs* 10yrs* Diversified Office Residential Retail Industrial Hotel Healthcare Other *Annualised compound growth Listed Real Estate key results by sector Residential was the top-performing listed real estate sector in March. The residential and hotel sectors were the top-performers over the past 12 months. Residential and healthcare stood out on three-year and five-year basis. Healthcare was the best performing sector over a 10-year horizon. P a g e 6

7 Sector Index of Listed Real Estate Total Returns Performance since 2010 to 31 March 2018 (2010 =) Since 2010, Healthcare (18.6%) was the best performing listed real estate sector, followed by industrial (10.8%) and hotel (10.5%). Diversified HealthCare Hotel Industrial Office Residential Retail Sector Index of Listed Real Estate Total Returns Three Years to 31 March 2018 (2015 =) Residential and healthcare lead the pack on a three-year basis, with total returns of 14.6% and 11.7% respectively Diversified HealthCare Hotel Industrial Office Residential Retail Other P a g e 7

8 GPR/APREA AsiaPac Performance Snapshot March 2018 GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index March 2018 % Total Returns (USD) Mar-18 1yr 3yrs* 5yrs* 10yrs* Australia China** Hong Kong Japan Malaysia Singapore Taiwan *Annualised compound growth **The China REIT index is a new experimental addition to the series. It tracks seven REITs that hold assets located in China four of which are listed in Hong Kong and three in Singapore. The total free float market capitalisation of these seven REITs is US$4.45 billion. At present, no entities listed on Mainland China bourses are included in the China REIT series. REITs - key results by country/region The top-performing REIT market in March was Taiwan. Singapore remained the top-performing REIT market over the past 12 months, repeating its 22.8% return in February. Hong Kong REITs stood out on three-year, five-year and 10-year basis. GPR/APREA Composite REIT Country Index over the Long-term Country Index of REIT Total Returns 10 Years to 31 March 2018 (2008=) Australia Japan Hong Kong Singapore (Large market cap countries) Malaysia Taiwan (Small to medium market cap countries) P a g e 8

9 GPR/APREA Composite REIT Sector Index March 2018 % Total Returns (USD) Mar-18 1yr 3yrs* 5yrs* 10yrs* Diversified Office Residential Retail Industrial Hotel Healthcare Other *Annualised compound growth REIT key results by sector Residential REITs posted the highest total returns in March. Hotel and healthcare REITs remained as top-performers over the past 12 months. Healthcare also stood out on 3-year, 5-year and 10-year basis. Please explore APREA s market intelligence portal for more facts and trends. P a g e 9

10 Sector Index of REITs Total Returns Performance since 2010 to 31 March 2018 (2010=) Healthcare (18.6%) was the best performing REIT sector, followed by residential (14.1%) and industrial (13.8%,) since Diversified HealthCare Industrial Office Residential Retail 160 Sector Index of REITs Total Returns Three Years to 31 March 2018 (2015=) Healthcare (11.7%) was the best performing REIT sector, followed by office (8.1%) and residential (7.6%), on a three-year basis. Diversified HealthCare Hotel Industrial Office Residential Retail P a g e 10

11 USD billion GPR/APREA AsiaPac Performance Snapshot March 2018 How big is AsiaPac s listed real estate market? 800 Free Float Market Capitalisation GPR/APREA Composite Real Estate GPR/APREA Composite REIT Market Cap in Numbers Constituents Free float in USD billion Free float change (m-o-m) Free float change (y-o-y) Listed real estate index % 15.20% REIT index % 5.93% Top performers in March 2018 listed property companies and REITs Redco Properties Group Ltd-CHN Jiayuan International Group-CHN Times China Holdings Ltd-CHN Cowell Development-IDN Suncity Group Holdings Ltd-CHN Hung Ching Development & Construction Co Ltd-TWN Hopson Development Holdings Limited-CHN Agile Group Holdings Limited-CHN Yuexiu Property Co Ltd-CHN Fantasia Holdings Group Company Ltd-CHN 10 Top Performing Listed Property Companies (USD - March 2018) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Mapletree Industrial Trust-SGP IMPACT Growth REIT-THA Cathay No 2 REIT-TWN Comforia Residential REIT-JPN CapitaLand Commercial Trust-SGP Cromwell Property Group-AUS CapitaLand Malaysia Mall Trust-MYS Dasin Retail Trust-CHN Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT-SGP Fubon No 2 REIT-TWN 10 Top Performing REITs (USD - March 2018) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% P a g e 11

12 Methodology Q&A Q. What sources of information underpin this report? A. There are multiple sources, including GPR, APREA Research and Bloomberg. Q. Which geographical markets are covered? A. Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, S. Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Allocations are based on country of operation. Q. Which sectors are covered and what comprises other? A. Diversified, office, residential, retail, industrial, hotel, healthcare and other. Other can include, data centres, storage etc. Q. What sort of companies are included in the listed composite index and why are REITs part of the series? A. The listed composite index is representative of the AsiaPac property stock market and includes developers, landlords and REITs listed on one or more of the regional stock exchanges. REITs are included in the composite index as they comprise around 40% of the listed real estate landscape. The basic inclusion rules for stocks are: $50mn minimum free float market capitalisation for two consecutive months 15% minimum free float factor 60% of operational turnover derived from investment activities and/or development activities Q. What does the REIT index cover and what is a REIT for the purposes of this index? A. The REIT index includes companies that comply with REIT legislation in their country of primary listing. Singapore business trusts are included in the REIT index only if they comply with both the following criteria: 1. the business trust derives at least 90% of operational turnover from investment activities; and 2. the business trust must formally commit to distribute at least 90% of income as dividends. Q. How is a total return defined in this index? A. Total return includes both the total of dividends received and the change in unit price over a period. This figure is expressed as a percentage over the beginning period price. Q. What is the difference between free float and value or market capitalisation? A. Free-float market capitalisation is calculated by taking an equity's price and multiplying it by the number of shares available in the market. Instead of using the total of active and inactive shares, as with the full-market capitalisation method, the free-float method excludes locked-in shares such as those held by insiders, promoters and governments. Q. Are the indices weighted? How? A. Yes, the property stocks included in all indices are assigned a base weighting derived from their free float market capitalisation on a quarterly date of periodic adjustment. The country weights are the sum of weighting factors of eligible individual constituents in each country. Q. How often are the weightings and selection of the component countries and property stocks adjusted? A. The adjustments to the base weightings and selection of stocks and countries in the listed composite index occur quarterly in March, June, September and December. Q. From where is the information on individual company performance sourced? A. Bloomberg Q. Why were the MSCI Asia Pacific Equities Index series and JPM Govt Bonds-Asia Pacific series chosen to represent equity and bond performance? A. The two series are considered representative of regional equity and bond performance. Q. What is GPR? A. Global Property Research (GPR) provides services for leading financial institutions with top of-the-line benchmarks. All index products are based on an extensive and unique proprietary database of global listed property and infrastructure companies. GPR has a proven track record since For more on GPR, please contact Jeroen Vreeker at j.vreeker@gpr.nl or Floris van Dorp at f.van.dorp@gpr.nl Q. How can I learn more about this index or APREA? A. Please contact Sian Howe Chua at sianhowe.chua@aprea.asia, or visit APREA s website P a g e 12

13 Listed Real Estate - index constituents and profile Country Classification^ Country weights^ Company Classification 25% 9% 10% 33% 27% 8% Developed 75% Emerging 13% 18% 18% JPN HKG CHN AUS SGP OTHS 28% Investor Developer Hybrid Other 37% REIT Status Property Sector 9% 4% 2% 38% 62% 15% 0.3% 51% 19% Non-REIT REIT DIV RES RET OFF IND HCR OTHS REITs - index constituents and profile Country Classification^ 4% 14% Country Weights^ 8% 2% 5% 39% 9% Property Sector 5% 4% 1% 30% Developed 96% Emerging 32% JPN AUS SGP HKG CHN OTHS 22% 29% RET DIV OFF IND RES HCR OTHS ^Based on country of operations P a g e 13

14 Please read this important DISCLAIMER APREA s believes the information in this report to be reliable, but we make absolutely no representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Any expressions of opinion contained herein are those of Asia Pacific Real Estate Association Ltd only and are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this document should be taken as a recommendation and nothing should be construed to being taking account of specific investment objectives, financial situations and the particular needs of any reader. This document is no substitute for the exercise of judgment. Reader should obtain their own expert advice on all matters. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or sell any securities. The Asia Pacific Real Estate Association Ltd and its affiliates, Directors, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any securities mentioned herein or any securities related thereto and may from time to time add to or dispose of any such securities. All rights reserved. P a g e 14