Dai-ichi Life s Investment Strategy. Tatsusaburo Yamamoto Executive Officer and General Manager, Investment Dept.

Transcription

1 Dai-ichi Life s Investment Strategy Tatsusaburo Yamamoto Executive Officer and General Manager, Investment Dept.

2 Review of results (Asset Allocation) Given the low interest rates in Japan, we limited JGB investments and focused on hedged foreign bonds (relatively attractive yield even after hedge cost) and selective credit investments. Asset allocation of general fund (lhs) 100% 3.0% 3.5% 3.4% 19.9% 21.6% 20.7% 80% 8.3% 10.5% 14.3% 60% 24.4% 21.8% 68.8% 64.4% 19.0% 61.6% 40% 20% 0% 1.39% 1.14% 20-year JGB 44.4% yield (rhs) 42.6% 42.6% (Note) Asset shares are based on internal asset allocation criteria on an book value basis 0.08% Mar 末 Mar 末 Jun 末 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Other assets Risk assets Hedged foreign bonds Other Yendenominated fixed income assets JGB 36

3 Review of results (Investment Performance) The yield on our yen-denominated bonds was less affected by the lower interest rates because we limited new investments in this category. Positive spread increased due to increased exposure to hedged foreign bonds and other assets, as well as market recovery such as the weakening of the yen. Yield trend on yen-denominated bonds Trend on positive/negative spread 2.5% 1,500 億円 2.0% Dai-ichi 1.92% 1, % % 0.5% 20yr JGB 0.41% , % FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 1, FY11 年度 12 FY12 年度 13 FY13 年度 FY14 年度 FY15 年度

4 Review of investment activities in Q1 FY2016 Increased hedged foreign bonds within fixed income assets: reduced exposure to risk asset category such as equities and un-hedged foreign bonds with the use of derivatives as well as sale of security. Secured Positive Spread and derivative transaction gains in the Q1 under yen-strengthening period. 38 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 (billions of yen) Major activities in 1Q Yen-fixed income assets Hedged foreign bonds Risk assets (incl. derivatives) Domestic & foreign equities Un-hedged foreign bonds ca.+800 bil. ca (200) bil. ca (200) bil. <Balance of un-hedged foreign bonds> Un-hedged foreign bonds (lhs) JPY/USD (rhs) (yen) Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 (note) Asset shares are based on internal asset allocation criteria on an book value basis Review of 1Q performance (condensed: billions of yen) 1Q FY2016 Fundamental Profit 86.4 Positive spread 4.0 Capital gains/losses 54.5 Gains/losses on sale of securities Derivative transaction gains/losses Ordinary revenue Net income (non-consolidated) 59.3

5 Global market forecast of mid-to-long term Ratio of working age population(%) 80 Forecast Working age population will peak out globally Developed countries: Lower external demand Developed countries Structural issues Emerging countries Emerging countries: Growth expected due to population increases starts deteriorating China Source: United Nations Stagnant resource prices (crude oil) Low economic growth and low inflation rates are anticipated in the medium term, due to structural factors Tightening Low interest rates to continue Monetary policy Monetary easing spreads globally U.S. Cautiously seeking rate hike Emerging countries U.K. Brexit Financial Markets Easing Europe Japan New dimension of monetary easing Some space for easing Higher volatility 39

6 Overview of our mid-to-long term investment policy Coping with a changing environment, we aim for a stable profit increase through an increase in accounting profit and an adequate control of economic value indicators Financial market environment Easing : Low interest rates Tightening : Interest rate increases Our initiatives Excellence in ALM Improved net income Risk control on an economic basis Utilizing group resources 1 Assets: Further enhancing our mid-to-long-term portfolio simulation model Liabilities: Strategically managing liability profiles (market-oriented sales and product strategy) 2 Asset allocation with flexibility to respond to market changes (increased exposure to hedged foreign bonds and risk assets, selective credit investments) 3 Enhancing investments in new areas (project finance, asset finance etc.) Cautiously monitoring signs of interest rate increase / widening spread Build hedge position for sudden rate hike 4 Control of asset duration utilizing derivatives More investments in bonds/ Asset duration to lengthen 5Joint product development with asset management companies / consolidation of asset management companies 40

7 1Excellence in ALM Segmentation accounting and ALM initiatives ALM-based investments are supported by segmentation accounting and the initiatives laid out below On the asset side, we run our mid-to-long-term portfolio simulation model on the premise that lower rates will continue. On the liability side, the investment team was actively involved in setting up sales and product strategy. Segmentation accounting Adequate portfolio management strategy based on product profile / liability nature Individual business in general Group pension business Single premium whole life policies (fixed income and risk asset) Balanced portfolio Balanced portfolio (fixed income and risk asset) Duration matching (largely fixed income) 41 Portfolio management initiatives Further enhancing our mid-to-long-term portfolio simulation model With the use of our economic scenario generator, portfolio simulations are conducted on the premise that lower domestic interest rates will continue Liability side initiatives Market-oriented sales and product strategy Reducing assumed rates on return for single premium whole life Suspended underwriting group pension fund in general account and promoted sales of new product in separate account

8 2 Asset allocation with agility to market changes Selective investments in hedged foreign bonds Increased exposure to hedged foreign bonds since second half of FY2013, in light of the relative attractiveness in yen-based yield Increased number of invested countries/currencies in view of revenue growth and risk diversification (32 countries, 22 currencies) Took credit risk selectively to maintain/enhance revenue Trend on yield (after hedge-cost basis ) Currency composition Sector composition 4% 3% 2% US corp. bonds( ) 100% 75% Sovereign bonds at Europe( ) 6.8% 3.2% 28.4% Other AUD EUR 16.5% 8.2% 27.4% 100% 75% MBS Corporate bonds 17% 32% 1% 0% JGB 10yr. US treasury( ) 50% 25% 61.6% USD 47.9% 50% 25% Sovereign, municipal 52% 1% 10-year yield, after hedge cost 42 Dec 2013 年 月 Mar 年 3 月 Jun 年 6 月 Sep 年 9 月 Dec 2014 年 月 Mar 年 3 月 Jun 年 6 月 Sep 年 9 月 Dec 2015 年 月 Mar 年 3 月 Jun 年 6 月 0% 0% Mar- Mar- 2012/3 末 2016/3 末 Mar- 2016/ 末

9 3 Enhancing investments in new areas Enhancing investments in new areas Aiming both accounting profit and risk control on economic-value basis, we plan to enhance investments in new areas that have different sources of income (risk profile). In particular, areas of focus are hard asset areas such as the infrastructure sector Purpose of investments in new areas Areas of focus Strengthen earning power Risk diversification First mover advantage Capture capital needs from growing areas and pursue higher yield Diversify sources of returns Build robust portfolio Move faster than competitors to invest in superior projects Low risk/return High 小 Debt in emerging countries Un-hedged foreign bonds Hedged foreign bonds Domestic public bonds Interest rates Equity in emerging countries Global equities Hybrids Foreign corp. bonds Corp. loans Domestic corp. bonds Corporate operation (risk profile) Real estate infrastructure sector (direct/indirect) Aircraft finance Hard assets Areas of focus PE funds Hedge funds Securitized products Opportunity oriented 43

10 3 Enhancing investments in new areas Debt funding of overseas infrastructure projects, the first time ever in Japan Took initiatives in setting up yen-denominated debt funds consisting of overseas infrastructure projects in investable countries that generate stable cash flows over the long term. Going forward, we will cultivate potential needs in public pension etc. and grow the fund size to 100 bil. Yen, and contribute to an expansion of infra-debt market. Overview of the fund Purpose / feature of the fund Infrastructure sector Provide loans Mizuho Bank Liquidity from loan receivables MGAI Mizuho Global Alternative Investments (wholly owned by Mizuho) Dai-ichi Life Dai-ichi participates in setting up funds Infrastructure debt fund Invest Potential needs in public pension etc. Banks Life Insurers Expected return Investment destination Seek liquidity from loan receivables for completed infrastructure projects (balance sheet control, optimizing ROA) Investment opportunity in longer duration loan fund with lower risk (i.e. completed projects) duration matching with long duration liability Strengthen project finding capability Investment needs Around 2% (on a JPY basis) Diversified project finance-related investments that generate stable cash flows over the long term, such as completed/operating projects in investable countries (example) thermal power project (gas- and coal-fired), photovoltaic project 44

11 3 Enhancing investments in new areas Developing a new investment scheme in new investment horizon We promote (a) increased investment options, (b) accumulation of expertise, and (c) human resource development, through a synergy between direct investment in infrastructure sector and investment through funds Will accelerate more investment in the sector, and pursue both quality (quality projects) and quantity (increased investment options) <The core of our investments in new areas> The size of the world s project finance market: approx. 300 billion USD a year Sharing know-how Gain investment and administration know-how Human resources development Project monitoring Investment division of Dai-ichi life Reduce project size constraint and more risk diversification Share expertise 45 Other financial institutions (banks / trust banks)

12 4Control of asset duration utilizing derivatives We increased the asset duration using derivatives, taking into consideration the impact to accounting profit and economic value indicators as well as liquidity in the market With interest rate swaps, we were able to lengthen the asset duration of the fixed income portfolio by approximately 1 year compared to that of Sep Reducing interest rate risk Trend of asset duration Accounting profit Economic value 46 Interest swaps (receiving fixed interest) Purchase super long bonds Income gains (decrease income yield of existing portfolio) Capital gains (Hedge accounting, and fair value through OCI) (huge capital gains but higher risk of losses in interest rate hike scenario) Control of interest rate risk Liquidity (relatively more liquid compared to JGB) Mar /3 末 Duration of fixed income assets including derivative positions Duration of fixed income assets w/o derivative positions Sep /9 末 Mar /3 末 Sep /9 末 Mar /3 末 Sep /9 末 Position of interest swaps Mar bil. yen Mar /3 末

13 5Joint product development with asset management company Synergies for Product Development We developed customer-centric and market-oriented products jointly with DIAM and other group resources. AUM of Separate Account Balanced Fund II successfully increased to 200+ billion yen We will strive to increase AUM by providing better solutions to pension fund customers such as Separate Account Bond Fund, and also continue to engage in joint product development. Product development utilizing group resources Trends in AUM and performance Understand customer needs Leverage DIAM s expertise Separate Account Balanced Fund II (April ) Agile asset allocation based on signs of market changes (such as volatility) and avoid losses on sudden interest rate hike and/or equity market correction Separate Account Bond Fund (January ) Securing stable income based on quantitative analysis % 20% 15% 10% (Billions of yen) Mar-14 Jun-14 Bond Fund Balanced Fund II Sep-14 Dec-14 Balanced Fund II Nikkei 225 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 FY16 (Apr.-Jul.) fund performance : +2.6% against Nikkei225 Jun-16 50% 40% 30% 20% 5% 10% Customer-centric product development Market-oriented product development 0% -5% Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 0% -10% 47

14 5 Consolidate and strengthen asset management companies Overview of initiatives in the asset management business In addition to the corporate value increments at our asset management companies, they provide investment services to insurance companies within the group and grow their net income Consolidated income Dividends Consolidated income Dividends 2 Management fees Acting as investment engine Management fees Collaborating each other (cross selling of products) Group synergy Premium income Management fees Management fees Domestic financial market 1,700 trillion yen Overseas financial market 48

15 ⑤ Consolidate and strengthen asset management companies Vision of Asset Management One To be a global asset management company which provides solutions by using its expertise in investment in Japan and Asia - Carry out fiduciary duties of high standard and contribute to customers wealth management - Aim to increase AUM from 53 trillion to 100 trillion yen, (i.e. A leap from No.1 in Asia to Global Top 20) Europe Aim to acquire investment money globally focusing around Japan Market 2,400 trillion yen size North America Japan Market 4,000 trillion yen size Market 400 trillion yen size Australia & Asia (excluding Japan) Market size 700 trillion yen Asset Management One s offices Dai-ichi Life & its subsidiaries offices Mizuho & its subsidiaries offices Core competences 49 High reputation for asset management capability in domestic market (aiming to expand in Asian markets) Provide solutions to customers with quantitative analysis capability Competitive cost efficiency in passive investment products supported by large AUM Market size McKinsey & Company (2014), at a rate of 1USD = 112 JPY

16 5 Consolidate and strengthen asset management companies Strategy of Asset Management One The new company puts priority to improve revenue and cost efficiency for the initial 3 years. Thereafter it will pursue growth acceleration in the long term. FY2016H2 ~ FY2018 (Integration stage) 2019 onwards Retail market (mutual funds) Boost the share in publicly offered mutual funds Develop and promote new flagship products New products to capture the shift from savings to investments (bank deposit substitute, products for DC) Pursue sales volume leveraging the wide distribution network Revenue expansion Institutional investors market Enhance product development capability for institutional investors Cross selling to customer base of integrating 4 companies Promote sales of high value added products such as alternative products Accelerate growth Overseas market Strategy to increase mandate from overseas funds Products tailored for overseas market (Domestic & Asian equity, smart beta fund) Sales efforts collaborating with parent companies 50 Cost efficiency Streamlining products Operational efficiency Consolidation of IT Systems Cost efficiency

17 5 Consolidate and strengthen asset management companies Creating group synergies Dai-ichi s new alliance with Japan Post Insurance creates additional business collaboration opportunities in asset management area. Utilize asset management companies capability to strengthen wealth management functions of the group Benefit of group synergy amounts to ca. 20% of DIAM s revenue and ca 10%+ of Janus international operation and, accordingly contributes to revenues of life insurance companies within the group until onwards Collaborating with each other Acting as investment engine Janus products sold through DIAM DL (group pension biz.) DFL Protective Mutual funds Pension funds Large-size mandates (Japan Post Ins.) Separate accounts DIAM products Variable annuity Variable annuity Year 1999~ DIAM started investment advisory Year 2006~ DIAM started investment Started to sell bond MFs Started to sell equity MFs Separate Account Balanced Fund II DIAM product sold through Dai-ichi Governmental pension fund on trust Separate Account Bond Fund Co-use of AM companies w/ Japan Post Insurance Janus started providing investment services 51

18 Alliance with Japan Post Insurance Mutual efforts in developing investment functions are being made. We will announce the progress as and when necessary. Common challenge Common solution Difficulties in finding investment opportunities to maintain profitability Expansion of investment area/method by developing new horizon and utilizing capabilities of external asset management experts Both Japan Post Insurance and Dai-ichi have a similar liability profile and, accordingly, similar challenges. Through the joint effort to enhance investment functions, we strive to tackle the challenges. Front Office Co-investing in infrastructure projects globally Joint utilization of external asset managers as a supplement to in-house investments More access to superior projects. Strengthen earning power / diversify risk Middle Office HR exchange by mutually seconding trainees Sharing credit analysis expertise Nurture people who manage investments in new areas Strengthen credit analysis functions Back Office Co-investing in custody banks Sharing know-how on securities administration Sharing platform of security administration that is flexible enough for the changing environment 52