6 th AFMI Workshop Invest in African Bond Markets
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1 AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE 6 th AFMI Workshop Invest in African Bond Markets Dakar, 23 rd November
2 AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE OUTLINE THE RISE OF AFRICAN LOCAL CURRENCY BOND MARKETS AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK S ANSWER AFRICAN DOMESTIC BOND FUND (ADBF) 2
3 AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE The Rise of African Local Currency Bond Markets 3
4 FINANCING AFRICA S NEEDS AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE Investments needs for the Sustainable Development Goals are estimated at USD 5 to 7 trillion per year globally, USD 3 to 4 trillion for developing countries. Estimates of Africa s Incremental financing needs related to the Sustainable Development Goals: Infrastructure : USD bn for Africa (Guido Schmidt-Traub (2015)) 4
5 GLOBAL DEBT PERSPECTIVE AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE GLOBAL PICTURE (as of end 2016, IIF findings): Global debt : USD 215 trillion (352% of GDP) Mature Markets: USD 160 trillion (390% of GDP) EM: USD 55 trillion (215% of EM GDP) Total Global Debt (USD trillion) Over the past decade,em have raised USD 40trillion 80 Important acceleration from the USD 9 trillion added between 1996 and 2006 It has mainly be in local currency as EM LCY debt stood at USD 48.5 trillion in 2016 VS. USD 7trillion in Hard Currency Emerging Markets 56 Mature Markets Source: Institute for International Finance
6 AFRICAN LCY BOND MARKETS LANDSCAPE AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE 6
7 USD bn USD bn AFRICAN LCY BOND MARKETS LANDSCAPE AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE Outstanding Amounts (2016) 100 Total amount outstanding of African LCY Bonds and Bills (as of End 2016): USD 368 Billion Total Amount Issued in 2016 on African LCY Bond Markets: USD 222 Billion Amount Issued in
8 70% IS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE SHORT TERM AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE Spectrum of Issuances by Maturity Number of Issuers by maturity, % % 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 11.8% 11.4% 8.9% 9.7% 10.8% 9.1% 2.1% 1.6% 3.3% 3.4% 8.9% 4.1% 4.0% 9.6% 9.7% 11.3% 13.2% 15.0% 77.0% 75.6% 80.2% 75.7% 70.1% 73.6% % % T-Bills ]1;5] ]5;10] > T-bills ]1;5] ]5;10] >10 Sources: AFMI Database, African Development Bank 8
9 Botswana Egypt Kenya Namibia Nigeria South Africa Ghana Morocco Tanzania Mauritius Uganda Zambia US Eurozone UK Japan Room for further deepening AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE 8.00% Real GDP Growth Rate 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% 2017 Forecast 2021 Forecast 9 Source: AfDB Statistics Department, IMF
10 EUROBONDS OPTION IS NOT VIABLE AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE Standard Bank Africa Bond UST Spread Index Total amount outstanding of Eurobond issued by African sovereign entities is around US$50 billion since 2006 Hard Currency funding costs have increased: African Eurobonds Spreads have widened by 260 bps over the last 10 years Currency depreciations have led to an increase in debt servicing costs US Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at its last meeting in September but indicated that another hike is warranted US Futures market see 85% chance of a December rate hike and 60% of further rate hike in June This will put an upward pressure on African Eurobonds spreads as they are priced off the UST yield curve Source: Bloomberg, Standard Bank 10
11 AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE African Development Bank s answer The African Financial Markets Initiative (AFMI) 11
12 AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE (AFMI) AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE African Financial Markets Initiative PILLAR I: AFMD Comprehensive database to provide updated, reliable and complete information on African domestic bond markets, Improving the availability and transparency of African fixed income markets-related data. Reconciling and standardizing data produced by several institutions, using different concepts and methods. Enhancing the quality of financial statistics on the continent. PILLAR II : ADBF The 2 main components of the ADBF: AFRICAN DOMESTIC BOND INDEX BOND FUND The ADBF will invested in African local currency denominated sovereign bonds. The specific objectives of the fund are the following: Reduce African countries dependency on foreign currency denominated debt Encourage the deepening of domestic bond markets through investments in longer dated debt Contribute to enlarge the investor base in African domestic bond markets TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMMES 12
13 AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS DATABASE (AFMD) AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE African Financial Markets Database Indicators Country T-Bonds T-Bils
14 AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE African Domestic Bond Indices 14
15 AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE African Financial Markets Initiative ADBI The African Bond Markets Development Index (ABMDI) AFMI SM Bloomberg African Bond Index (ABABI) Ranking of local bond markets; Reflective of the recent developments; Basis for designing a strategy for African bond markets development and deepening through TAs. Market capitalization index composed of local currency sovereign bonds of 6 countries ; Investable product measuring the value of the universe; Takes into account market liquidity and price discovery. 15
16 AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE The AFMI Bloomberg African Bond Index Additions AFMI Bloomberg African Bond Index South Africa Egypt Nigeria Kenya Botswana Namibia Ghana Zambia Added October 2015 Added March
17 AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE Available on Bloomberg Terminals: <BADB> GO
18 AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE African Domestic Bond Fund (ADBF) 18
19 KEY INVESTORS CONCERNS AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE Access SOLUTIONS ADBF as an Exchange-traded Fund: An ETF, or exchange traded fund, is a marketable security that tracks an index or a basket of assets like an index fund. Transaction Costs Risk/Return Regulation Liquidity An ETF offers the following advantages: Ease of use, Liquidity, Timely access, Diversification Enhanced ETF: 20% will be left at the discretion of the Fund Manager It will allow the FM to invest in short-term bonds of the ABABI countries A pre-set percentage of the Fund will be invested in countries that are close to inclusion in ABABI to incentivize them to continue their bond market development 19
20 AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE ADBF Characteristics of the Fu Fund Information (expected at launch) Domicile Location Mauritius Regulatory structure Collective Investment Scheme Enhanced Index Fund: Fund that tracks a particular Index(ABABI), but with some modifications in order to diversify and to attract additional countries. It is a mix of active and passive strategies. ADBF can invest outside ABABI 20% Returns sources Exchange Index Base Currency Management type Dividend Policy Fund Manager TER(expense ratio) Hedging Stock Exchange of Mauritius AfDB/AFMI SM Bloomberg African Bond Index ( ABABI ) USD Enhanced Index Fund Potential semi-annual distributions MCB Investment Management 65bps (expected) Unhedged ADBF will replicate ABABI s performance by buying Bonds among ABABI s constituents with the exact same weights of ABABI. Long-Term Bonds 80% 1. Bond coupons 2. Rates movements 3. Currency Fluctuations 20
21 FINANCIAL AND DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE Exposure to a yield enhancement product Regional integration and Economic Resilience Access to a broad range of African Local Currency Markets at a cheap cost Development & Financial Outcomes Private Sector Development & Demonstration Effect Governance and Fiscal Effect 21
22 AFRICAN FINANCIAL MARKETS INITIATIVE Thank you AFMI Team (225) / African Financial Markets Initiative 22
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