Asymmetric price transmission in the Japanese seafood value chain

Transcription

1 IIFET 202, Tanzania, 20 July 202 Asymmeric price ransmission in he Japanese seafood value chain - Analyses focusing on six fish species - Yuaro Sakai Toru Nakajima 2 Takahiro Masui 3 Nobuyuki Yagi 2 Universiy of Calgary 2 The Universiy of Tokyo 3 Mie Universiy

2 . Inroducion 2. Mehodology / Model 3. Daa 4. Resuls 5. Discussion 2

3 Inroducion Japanese seafood value chain has ypically hree markes from producers o consumers Landing marke Wholesale marke Reail marke fishermen middlemen middlemen reailers reailers consumers This value chain has developed o deal wih various fish species and heir flexibiliy of use 3

4 Fisheries Agency conduced a research for he seafood value chain in Japan in 2009 Fig. Revenue share in he reail price 00% 6.5% 24.7% 38.5% 36.8% 24.7% reailer middleman fisherman Landing Wholesale Reail Fishermen s revenue is 24.7% of he reail price while reailers revenue is 38.5% (Fisheries Agency (2009)) Wheher his value chain is really efficien or no is one of he major issues in Japanese fisheries 4

5 Reailers such as supermarkes are said o have a srong marke power in he Japanese seafood value chain fisherman middleman reailer consumer Mos of he previous sudies are descripive, and no sudy has shown i quaniaively - Objecive - o examine he marke srucure of he Japanese seafood value chain using saisical mehods 5

6 . Inroducion 2. Mehodology / Model 3. Daa 4. Resuls 5. Discussion 6

7 Mehodology Noes of Prices and Margins in Fish Markeing (by Dr. Bjorndal and Dr. Gordon) Srucural Model Reduced Model Cross-secion Wih special emphasis on: Asymmery price ransmission Coinegraion and Threshold Adjusmen Waler Enders and Pierre L. Siklos Journal of Business & Economic Saisics (200) 7

8 Mehodology The concep of asymmeric price ransmission [ The image of Posiive asymmery ] () When X increases.. (2) When X decreases.. Price X 2 quick adjusmen Price X 2 slow adjusmen X X Asymmery ype When X increases When X decreases Posiive quick slow Negaive slow quick 8

9 One possible inerpreaion of his asymmery is he marke power [ The image of Posiive asymmery ] () When X increases.. =Seller s margin decreases. Price X 2 X buyer seller regain margin o is normal sae quickly (2) When X decreases.. Price X 2 X =Seller s margin increases. enjoy larger margin for a exended period of ime buyer seller Asymmery ype When X increases When X decreases Marke power Posiive quick slow seller > buyer Negaive slow quick seller < buyer 9

10 Model Two models are used in his analysis () TAR (Threshold Auoregressive) model I 2 ( I ) T i i i I 0 (2) M-TAR (Momenum Threshold Auoregressive) model M 2 ( M ) i T i i M 0 T: Number of lags, τ: Threshold, I, M: Heaviside indicaor funcion μ: Disurbance erm ( x2 x ) 0

11 τ is deermined by Chan (993) s mehod I 0 M 0 s Sep 2nd Sep Esimae he following equaion and save he residuals as {μ }. x2 x Sor he {μ } and call i as {μ τ }. Discard he larges and smalles 5%. The remaining 70% are he candidae of τ. 3rd Sep Esimae TAR/MTAR model for each μ τ and selec he one which yields he lowes residual sum of squares.

12 Co-inegraion and asymmery es () TAR model I 2 ( I ) (2) M-TAR model M 2 ( M ) T i T i i i i i I M 0 0 Co-inegraion es H 0 : ρ =ρ 2 =0 is esed by Φ es. *Criical values are given by Ward e. al (2004) Asymmery es H 0 : ρ =ρ 2 is esed by F es. If H 0 rejeced ρ < ρ 2 ρ > ρ 2 Posiive asym. Negaive asym. 2

13 Analyical procedure Objecive :o analyze he saisical relaionships beween wo price daa Sep : Uni roo es Sep 2: Co-inegraion es Sep 3: Asymmery es : Augmened Dickey-Fuller es :TAR / M-TAR model Asymmery ype When X increases When X decreases Marke power Esimae Posiive quick slow seller > buyer ρ < ρ 2 Negaive slow quick seller < buyer ρ > ρ 2 3

14 . Inroducion 2. Mehodology / Model 3. Daa 4. Resuls 5. Discussion 4

15 Daa and uni roo es Daa Japanese sardine, horse mackerel, Japanese common squid, skipjack una, Japanese saury, red sea-bream Ex-vessel price, wholesale price a consuming marke, reail price Source: Governmen saisics Jan 97 Dec 2009, monhly daa Uni roo es ADF es was conduced and i was found ha price daa are non-saionary and I() 5

16 Esimaion resuls Marke Period Sardine Wholes ale reail Horse mackerel Common squid Skipjack una Saury Seabream -994 Pos** Pos*** Neg** 995- Neg** - - Neg*** Pos** Neg* -994 Neg** Neg* Neg*** Pos** Pos*** Neg*** 995- Neg*** Neg* Neg*** Neg*** Pos*** Neg** Pos:Posiive asymmeric price ransmission: sellers have sronger power Neg:Negaive asymmeric price ransmission: buyers have sronger power -: Asymmery no deeced *p<0., **p<0.05, ***p<0.0 6

17 Findings In and before 994, sellers had sronger power in some species and buyer had sronger power in oher species. Afer 994, marke power of buyers has apparenly increased. Saury is in a unique siuaion where sellers have sable marke power over he observaion period. 7

18 . Inroducion 2. Mehodology / Model 3. Daa 4. Resuls 5. Discussion 8

19 Discussion The resuls are in conformiy wih an marke observaion ha reailors obained sronger power in Japan afer radiional fishmongers were replaced by large supermarkes around 994. Saury s uniqueness could be explained by he raded form of his fish species: consumers are happy o buy whole saury and venders are free from addiional labors such as heading and guing of he fish a he sie of he sales. 9

20 Thank you 20