Tata Motors. Turnaround 2.0, Fit for future; BUY. Source: Company Data; PL Research

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1 Turnaround 2.0, Fit for future; BUY June 06, 2018 Saksham Kaushal Poorvi Banka Rating BUY Price Rs296 Target Price Rs378 Implied Upside 27.7% Sensex 35,179 Nifty 10,685 (Prices as on June 06, 2018) Trading data Market Cap. (Rs bn) 1,003.5 Shares o/s (m) 3, M Avg. Daily value (Rs m) 4047 Major shareholders Promoters 36.53% Foreign 20.26% Domestic Inst % Public & Other 25.71% Stock Performance (%) 1M 6M 12M Absolute (11.6) (25.5) (35.9) Relative (12.3) (33.4) (48.7) How we differ from Consensus EPS (Rs) PL Cons. % Diff Price Performance (RIC:TAMO.BO, BB:TTMT IN) (Rs) Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Source: Bloomberg Dec 17 Feb 18 Apr 18 Jun 18 Tata Motors held its Investor day where the management discussed in detail about its medium to long term strategy (Turnaround 2.0) for the domestic business. With focus on topline growth, customer centricity, process improvement, agile cost management and a lean and accountable organization, the management reiterated their key objectives: 1) Regaining market share in both commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles (up 70bps in CVs and up 50bps in PV for FY18) 2) EBIT margin target of 3 5% between FY19 21 and 5 7% in the long run (FY18 EBIT margins at 0.8%) 3) Higher free cash flow generation due to better operating performance and investments within affordable limits. Commercial Vehicles Aim to win back market share: Management expects the industry to easily deliver a low double digit growth over FY19 20 driven by GDP growth, accelerated infra spending, curbs on overloading, etc. After losing over ~14% market share over the last 5 6 years, management is getting its act together by strengthening its product portfolio, enhancing customer engagement, improving customer engagement/experience, increasing focus on dealer profitability and network clean up/expansion. Passenger Vehicles Rebuild the brand and increase market share: With the PV segment suffering from a poor brand perception, recent steps and new launches have helped improve the perception in the last few years (appeal index up 29 points). For future models, the company is working on two new modular architectures (Alpha and Omega) and these would promote commonality and capability of developing models across multiple segments. Products from these new platforms/architecture include five and seven seater SUVs, which are expected to be launched by end of FY19. Contd...2 Key financials (Y/e March) E 2020E Revenues (Rs m) 2,696,925 2,946,192 2,913,692 3,187,811 Growth (%) (1.2) 9.2 (1.1) 9.4 EBITDA (Rs m) 369, , , ,538 PAT (Rs m) 102,499 58, , ,651 EPS (Rs) Growth (%) (28.6) (43.1) Net DPS (Rs) Profitability & Valuation E 2020E EBITDA margin (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV / sales (x) EV / EBITDA (x) PE (x) P / BV (x) Net dividend yield (%) Source: Company Data; PL Research Analyst Meet Update Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report

2 Favourable macro factors, low double digit growth over FY19 20 Vendor consolidation and agile cost management: Over the last few years, the company has consolidated its vendor base (reduced by ~30%) and aims to leverage from modularity and drive re use across products for both the PV and CV segment. Apart from focusing on dealer profitability, company has increased focus on vendor profitability and is offering financial support if required via Tata Motor Finance. Agile cost saving initiatives over the last few years have resulted in cost savings of Rs19bn in FY18, which helped somewhat off set rise in input costs. Management expects these benefits to continue and reiterated its target of being FCFF positive in FY19. Commercial vehicle Key takeaways from management commentary Win decisively in CVs and strengthen leadership. Better products to address white spaces, new power train solutions and building modularity in production Enhance customer engagement through better service responsiveness and availability of spare parts Expand the dealer network from the current 1,266 outlets and service 2,098 touch points and further increase rural penetration Company took a massive tear down exercise of all global competitors to analyse areas of cost reduction with ~60% of raw material covered Warranty complaints have reduced by 57% over the past three years and management plans to reduce it even further Despite talks of high discounts in the system, realizations have improved by 1.3% in FY18, which was driven by a combination of better mix and pricing decisions Growth guidance low double digit growth for the next two years (FY18 at 20%) June 06,

3 Network expansion with focus on SCV segment, used vehicle business & rural segment Slide 36 Passenger vehicle segment takeaways New launches (Nexon/Hexa/Tiago) over the last year have resulted in higher market share (5.7% in FY18 v/s 4.6% in FY16) as well as improved brand perception as Net Promoter score (NPS) has increased from 1 to +14 in three years and appeal index up 29 points Two new platform launches during FY19 and FY20 ALFA architecture will be used for small hatch up to an SUV OMEGA architecture is a variant of the existing Land Rover platform. Both these architectures can be used for various segments and will be fungible between petrol/diesel powertrains and will be ready for EV introduction as well Network expanded by 68% in three years. Continuing focus on rural (35% of volumes) Increased focus on Tata assured channel (second hand car outlets). For FY18, 30% of Tata Motors' new car sales were to an exchange customer Also targeting the growing rural segment, which currently forms ~35% of the overall market June 06,

4 Rapid PV network expansion Focus on increasing leverage June 06,

5 Tata Motors Finance key takeaways The company has an AUM of Rs280bn as of March 2018 and is in the business of financing new vehicles, used vehicles as well as corporate lending to dealers and suppliers Market share within Tata Motors products is 25% Metrics are improving GNPA declined from 19.9% in FY16 to 4.7% in FY18. Current ROE is 13% Targets for FY20 Increase AUM to Rs500bn and ROE to 20% by reducing credit losses to 0.5% of AUM (1.1% currently) and cost to income ratio to 38% (50% currently) Valuations We welcome the increased disclosures and disinvestments from loss making/noncore subsidiaries. Management s focus on improving the performance of the standalone entity is now clearly visible and we expect it to continue. The near term outlook for JLR, however, remains muted both for volumes and profitability, EBIT margin target of ~7 9% (earlier 8 10%) mainly due to accelerated product development expenses. With JLR s full product range available in EV/Hybrid variants from 2020 gives us further confidence. Given the attractive valuations and buoyant management guidance, we maintain BUY with a target price of Rs378, where we value JLR at 2.75x Mar 20E EV/EBITDA and Standalone entity at 10x Mar 20 EPS. June 06,

6 Income Statement (Rs m) Y/e March E s 2020E Net Revenue 2,696,925 2,946,192 2,913,692 3,187,811 Raw Material Expenses 1,658,942 1,858,500 1,760,339 1,972,562 Gross Profit 1,037,984 1,087,692 1,153,352 1,215,249 Employee Cost 283, , , ,842 Other Expenses 385, , , ,869 EBITDA 369, , , ,538 Depr. & Amortization 213, , , ,724 Net Interest 42,380 46,818 49,159 50,634 Other Income 7,545 8,889 9,778 10,756 Profit before Tax 93, , , ,936 Total Tax 32,512 43,419 37,024 30,426 Profit after Tax 60,636 68, , ,510 Ex Od items / Min. Int. (12,003) 55,411 91, ,400 Adj. PAT 102,499 58, , ,651 Avg. Shares O/S (m) 3, , , ,396.1 EPS (Rs.) Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) C/F from Operations 82, , , ,054 C/F from Investing (109,681) (538,329) (368,000) (368,000) C/F from Financing 82,900 (11,766) (69,159) (70,634) Inc. / Dec. in Cash 56,175 (14,640) (103,952) 52,421 Opening Cash 304, , , ,187 Closing Cash 360, , , ,608 FCFF 353,990 (331,402) (58,181) 84,703 FCFE 479,269 (296,350) (78,181) 64,703 Key Financial Metrics Growth Revenue (%) (1.2) 9.2 (1.1) 9.4 EBITDA (%) (11.6) PAT (%) (28.6) (43.1) EPS (%) (28.6) (43.1) Profitability EBITDA Margin (%) PAT Margin (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%) Balance Sheet Net Debt : Equity Net Wrkng Cap. (days) (41) (44) (25) (24) Valuation PER (x) P / B (x) EV / EBITDA (x) EV / Sales (x) Earnings Quality Eff. Tax Rate Other Inc / PBT Eff. Depr. Rate (%) FCFE / PAT (508.5) (60.4) 38.4 Source: Company Data, PL Research. Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m) Shareholder's Funds 580, ,279 1,113,687 1,327,338 Total Debt 744, , , ,944 Other Liabilities (40,258) 24,922 24,922 24,922 Total Liabilities 1,285,252 1,759,144 1,898,552 2,092,203 Net Fixed Assets 1,289,696 1,613,309 1,741,307 1,864,865 Goodwill 6,733 1,165 1,165 1,165 Investments 203, , , ,128 Net Current Assets (214,557) (63,457) (70,047) (17,954) Cash & Equivalents 360, , , ,608 Other Current Assets 820,426 1,103,178 1,081,655 1,169,163 Current Liabilities 1,395,762 1,512,774 1,393,890 1,481,725 Other Assets Total Assets 1,285,252 1,759,144 1,898,552 2,092,203 Quarterly Financials (Rs m) Y/e March Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Net Revenue 584, , , ,791 EBITDA 57,773 97,034 94, ,252 % of revenue Depr. & Amortization 53,370 57,349 64,944 75,191 Net Interest 11,089 11,473 12,474 11,783 Other Income 1,541 1,888 1,816 3,644 Profit before Tax 37,370 30,814 20,290 23,077 Total Tax 12,074 10,898 10,676 9,771 Profit after Tax 31,823 24,828 11,986 21,252 Adj. PAT (10,692) 24,113 10,766 34,098 Key Operating Metrics Standalone M&HCV sales (units) 175, , , ,192 Standalone LCV sales (units) 209, , , ,709 Standalone PC sales (units) 137, , , ,236 Standalone UV sales (units) 20,198 53,071 53,071 53,071 Total standalone sales (units) 542, , , ,208 Standalone EBITDA margin (%) Jaguar volume (units) 178, , , ,460 Land Rover volume (units) 422, , , ,656 Total JLR volume (units) 600, , , ,116 JLR EBITDA margin IFRS (%) Source: Company Data, PL Research. June 06,

7 Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. 3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai , India Tel: (91 22) Fax: (91 22) Rating Distribution of Research Coverage PL s Recommendation Nomenclature % of Total Coverage 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 45.3% 42.2% 12.5% 0.0% BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell BUY : Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12 months Accumulate : Outperformance to Sensex over 12 months Reduce : Underperformance to Sensex over 12 months Sell : Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12 months Trading Buy : Over 10% absolute upside in 1 month Trading Sell : Over 10% absolute decline in 1 month Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly DISCLAIMER/DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION We/I, Mr. Saksham Kaushal (BSc Accounting & Finance (Hons.)), Ms. Poorvi Banka (MSc. 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PL or its associates might have received compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months. PL or its associates might have managed or co managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months or mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. PL or its associates might have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months. PL or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months PL or its associates might have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. PL encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. 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The Research analysts for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The research analysts for this report has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company PL or its research analysts have not engaged in market making activity for the subject company Our sales people, traders, and other professionals or affiliates may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein, and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. 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