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3 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 79?C!'!-? < =>?@ A-B *$+< c h6[ 6B( + / D:^ *() ::( $ <D) / a D 6 _! O:O/ 7 [ : **! a :^ b k V A:B/ (5)Or 7 *(V( :8 _s( ) D 6) ' ( / H) ag *$' $G: * *$ $*$ : D 6 # 5 b$ *($ 7 :X GG * :!U * ) Z (6)t< : >n * k /:+:>: _! *[) >: c *[ ) >: *' G: 6 *+G /- 7 ( $[ $ $ $:Z:) $[ g$: $ru$$[ #< (6)c7: t: D 6 ( $:X) $) Z :!U * a A:B/ # G * V #:U 78 ' 8 $ #:$U $78 *$ $/ $ru$$[ $ + $_! $ c:( $ +:S:$G w$ *$E F( >n * 8 (A:B/ '( v )) 9 P$': $ $ $ $x:$8 $%V $ : _! O= Zu:O/ )(8) $: *$ ) Z$ A:B/ * Z*+ ( /) i8 $@$+:>:$ $ / [ * < ) : : O= [ : * V ( ) :8 *9 P+*B( / ) Analytic Network Process Non Parametric Multinomial Logit Model Early Warning System (EWS) Model 5 Binomial Discrete-Dependent-Variable Models 6 Post-Crisis Bias 7 Credit Quality 8 Latin American Debt Crises 9 Principal Components Analysis Vulnerability Indicators Stochastic Simulation Dynamic Factor Model Currency Crisis

4 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th $[ 7$ *$ $:!U *$ b) Z ()R:(:! w *E F( D 6 * V 7 78 */ CU / +:>: *( ) V P( *(V>: ) P+*B( w E_Z() :() 7 A:B/ 8 / N ( ) [ ) 7 P+*B( * $G: ) Z$ $ $ $( $(8) $( D 6 OV C D 6 )@ ( x:[ F g a+[ / b) Z$ $ $'$P *$E $F( C $D 6 $+ $$D 6 # *[ ) >: *' ( <D $ : $ /*[ ) >: *' G: a 8 k[ Y& E #$ *$ *$' $_(8 $ H$ ) >:$ $ / * k $/ H$$ G(+[(7-7) / +[67 D 6 * <D $$ O$$< $$ h $$ $$'Vm b ) Z$$ $$(85)( $$<[ >n$$ #$ $ * 8 /H ) >: *'*a b) (67-8)( ) ) G [ * <D ((/ < ) / A:B/ (8:-8:) E (76-78) E (7-7) $$/ $ + $_! *+*$' $G: a$(89) $7 :(:= D 6 C$= *+*' G: # C= # * #::(7( /) $/ +? +P: a *( *+8 / 6659$ $*$ $ d( N ( A #:&) N ( * ( * a $ < ) 7( G: (67-88)$ $ *:*+8 *(* <D:(/ G(+[7 7 [ b ) Z (89)V/ F A:B/ *k V) 7( / H $! / E* 88 E < 8 Feed-Forwards Neural Network Self-Organizing Map (SOM) Neural Network Signal Extraction Method Markov Switching Model

5 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 8?C!'!-? < =>?@ A-B 68 $ 67 $ E $_m $<)$(/ :D$?) ) $ '<%V c ) ) ( F (77 E :( 7 < 7 7 V h $ $'Vm $P ) Z$ $(89)( $<[ $( w$ *E F( >n a$ b)$(989-) ( $) ($ $)a$ y[ ' ( $ $/ A:B/ # (68-69) (989-99) $ $G: $ 7( / ) 7( / H )8 RS $( $) Z$ $ $P 8 N ( * 8 _(8 H ) >: *+*' P / G&( )*+ [ * 8 (7-7)(99-995) / E + (89)O[ ( :' w <C= A:B/ A$:B/ # U 7( / H * G! _ ) '< %V < : ) * Z h 'Vm P < : (5-87) ( ) \ (5-55))*$+ [ $ $( :$GB 5$ $' 7( $ w$ $F $ (8-86) (7-7) (6-69)(57-59) $ ) >+ %V b 9 b g b<d #?(9)O[ ( D 6 $ $ $ $ ) $ >+$ %V $ $ / $ $_(8 C$ hd$?\$b( *$ *$+$B5x$ 7( $ / w * V(5-87)( ) (8-87) (7-7) (6-69) (56-59) (5-55) )*+ [ # $ * # $$/ H$( #:$: H$? $ A$:B/ +:$': >$& $C B:B/ C D 6! C $D 6 N $( $=V $(/ <D + *9 - : *k() *! / H( T / H A: :

6 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 (/ : -68:7: 7: 7: 77: 77: 88:-8: H F:( ( = &CF / H( - / -7( / / -)/ / V) 7( / 7 8!E?E?B' (/ 9! D 6 7 :(:= ( 89) )V/F ( 89 7( / ( 9) O[ ( 67 (7-7) 7:-7: 78:-76: 8: 8: 8: (6-67) ) ( / H( / - / / ) / -P+*B( / / 7( D 6 9! ( (8) )( <[ (85 ( )( <[ (85 :' )O[ ( (89 A:B/N ( :Vz * k()*! t(8! ) C D 6 N ( + $ \$$ $) a *9 / H( + $_+() *$! $G&( h$ $ T E)U * 8() / H E*[ *! (58-88) $/ H$ $ $+[$(*$!)$( 7C $D 6 ) $7 *@ *(* T # $$+ *+$$ *$$ $$<D $$ $$ ( P+*$$B( 7( $$ ) $$ $$/) $ $*$D h$ $ *$(*$'( T () *! %&' / H +[ %&' a D 6 *D #::D _! ho& :D + $ *$ $k $ ) a / H *++E[ 9 + *D*(( $ a$ ) '& E ( ':^ ' C D 6) D 6 *D ) G [ G&( :D (89)O[ $( :$'*$+( $' C D 6E :D*(( <D / H ) +[ $:$ $d( *$:(/ +[ a #::D *@) : a D! (9)O[ ( $D 6 #$ $P(8 *$+ ( <D / +[ a C D 6 # P C D_

7 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 8?C!'!-? < =>?@ A-B $' C $D 6 U ( G7 [ E :D < d( D 6 a _+ $ : d(* : D 6 U _+%&' a * <D (/ $ $(/ $ *$+ ($ $<D / H ) +[ d( ) :( *@ $$ #::D( :D) a + A:B/ ( )! )a ( $+)B$G$D 6 $! ) $G [ %&$' $ a$ (/ %V''&# $ $ $ $/ H$ $$+[ d( (l< ( :D) a #::D _! *i &( _( O= / :D T E)U*+ ( <D $:D $g $:D( $:D! $:$ $* A:B/ / (l$< $( $ :D) a$ $ ( $8 *$B *[) ( 8 *@i&(:* $ a$ $<D $_!( $ a$ $ $/ H$ $ )B$G $D 6 *$@$! *$!(9) h (P( 7+) G D( / H +[&' $+[$#:$D a * <D :D+[_D 6 a *@! i &( * '() $H$F ) $7) () *$! $ G * <D (/ {[ (/ $B 6 $ $ *$* $' $ $:D $ (58-88( )! {$[ #:$D a * <D(/ _! BG D 6 *@ i &( G:( B6+ *( Z:D$? $@ $) $ $! $ (/ +[ a #::D a) :( *@ :D + *(*E F( BG OV D 6! + C= *(( <D / H +[ G7 $ a$ *$9$ $ / / H( g:( (5) h *+ * m g )- ( / ) / (h *#::D) :Dc %&' * #:D ) a _( (/ #::D A:B/ ) >& # *+9!+[ ) N $( $ $< E F(() :D + (58-88)A:B/ ( )! h$ $ $ *9 / / H( #::D () h () :D : * k() *!(5)

8 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 #:BB/ ( ( <[ ( <[ ( O[ ( :' 7 :( := V/ F V/ F O[ ( / H( /- / ) / /-P+*B( / 7( / / - 7( / - / /-) / V) 7( / 7( / / *++ E[ D 6 9 +: :D #< d( * / *++ E[ 9 + *D: :D ' C D 6 C D 6 #< d( * / *++ [: :D ) > *@ (/ \ ' :D *@ *[ * + (/ _ #::D *@ *[ * + (/ _#::D :D *@ *[ * + (/ _ #::D :D + (/ _ #::D / H( a:7z ( ) / ::D *@ *[ ?@ &CF (58-88) H ( ( ( 7 8 " GE!-?B' <'>? ) 78 8 ( A:B/ N ( :Vz

9 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 85?C!'!-? < =>?@ A-B *! / H *( * 8 l< *! t(8 + $ $E *(*k / H G&( *! # ( =V() $ : CU/ : O:O/ k V8 *<D((/ )/ ) A: $$ _(8 D 6 # -9M?7!E? &L-'> (58-88) $ #$ * V (/ *( <D * E[ (/ G(+[ {/ : CU/ :O/ $ $ $ :$G $ : CU/ ) /59 $<P( E8 $ $$ $ $ i$b( H ) R : ) G / 78 C Z O@ : OO#: #:[ $ ZD$ $ $' $OV}6 g * 9? :O[ 78?7!E?C!' A-! *! ) 8 $$+g $ $ $:O[ l[ +! ) ^ E ) _ < *D $O $a$( * ' #:G&( ) # *$@59 $ g$ a$( a( * $ $=V >$& 7( E 6[ *(89O[ ( :') ' ZP+ a( O:6D a ) R * < >g< *=5 $ #$ g$ a( a( * * U O!)(O:/ +! ) ) ib( ) R ) $^8 R$ *$ $ >g$< *$F )*( P+ E 6[57 ) $ $ $ $ 7( $ E $d( $ **' :D?# 59 +! 8 C $[ *$ # $+ *$ ($ $6[ $P+! w ': E =V >& a$ (9O[ ()* >g< # g a( a( * * a( 6[ e$()* Z+ ' * *: *= P+*B( *59 _+ $$( $$F *$$=75*$$@ *$$ ) e$$( (59 $$ *$$=-5 $$ *$$ 5$ E$ e$( *$=5$ $59 $ $B:B@ $_ e$( (89O[ ( :') e$( *$=5$ $OV % $V ( *$: * e( *=-5 Z( *8 * e( *= (89 7 :( :=) *: *=5 ' C = * (/ 59 5 / 59:

10 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 *$ :O[ l[ O:/ +! ( / H E $' D+= ) B F@ < >g< C* +! +g # ) $& $ $m $ C$@ # $ $ Z( *8 ' E V 7 86 * +! >g< ) :( #:z ] Z( C = ' >7Z( P'U Z( :VT $U E*$[ _! B / +! ( (! ** > m * D+= C*:( _(8) d( ( _ )' D+= CU8#: C$y@ $ ib( g O@68 (!B '< ' $ $O! ) a$ $y[ ' ) :G 6968 * 9() +:V E a$ (85( $<[ $() *8! / Z( : ** > : $5) 7( $ C [ * 7' U 7' U8) Z( :69 _+ 7 $ #:z$ $:$ #$ 7( $ C $[ *$(89O[ $( :$') $ *:$ *$= g$ a$( $ $a( ** +! ) R ) ) ) ^8 g:( =V P+ $65 $ -7/$ ) g$ a$( $ a( * * ( # $ *$F69$ $< > *=/8 68 >g< 66 *=6/8 $P+! w$ g$ a$( $ $a$( *$ ( U O! )* >g< *=9/ a$ (9O[ $() $ $ $ $ $ $ : D< *$ e$( $ $( $F 67 $ *$=g: E e( 69 _+ 7 $ $' $ *$ e( 67 (89O[ ( :') *: *=9 P+*B( $F *$= *$= Z$=$B *$ $' $Z( *$8 * *: *=-/5*@ * $ *$=8B e( x: 6766 E e( 7+ [ ( -9 *$@ $ x$:$ $' $B:B@ _ e( 6766 P ) :$G(66-69) $ $ $OV % $V (*$: $ $! i G@ G( *: *=- $ $ $g( $+87 $ V )(89 7 :( :=) Z= ag( g:m ( $ ) ' * e( (7-7) (89O[ ( :') ^8 /5$ $ _( 7 $ *$=/5$ RS$ 7 $ *$=7 *= /8//7 x$:$ E e( ( ) # * > 7 *= *:$ *$=9/B $$ $ $ $' E$ e$( 7 $ _( *=5/ 7 $ U $:O:-59/$ $ ' ) () # (9O[ () (85( <[)*:7 U :O:-7/7 U :O:-76/ ) $ **$ $r F {[ *8! ) e( ) G7 ) )8 :7 $! $G7 $$ : P C [ * ' (E e() ) e( >g< ) (89 V/ F) *(* 8! ) +:'(xb[ F #:G * :E (66-69)

11 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 87?C!'!-? < =>?@ A-B ) e$( **$ >g$< $ $F+7 $ 8! G(8 : G7 : a$ $ $' ) e( * x! V # * ' E e$( $= ) e$( $ (g) e( *+( ) e( H( #*+m * Y V e( a( a( * * + :#;[7 ( ) *=8* * l< *7 F(8! :G ( g ) : *=55* e( P+*B( *=8* e( * '7 ) $ $ $( $ #$ g a( a( *(89 O[ ( :') $ *:$7 $ *$=-*$@ $ $' *$( 7 *=*@ * 75 $ *$=-*$ *:$7 $ *$=79* D= ; G( *( RS $ : $! $ $$ g$ a$( $ $a$( *$ $( $U $O! ) $ $( $F w$ $G $([ 5! : T E)U) ( ) e( ) G7 $+! $ ) R$ $ $ $+[$ (7-7) ( $) =V; yd $ $ $ $! $_! ) $:( $ $ E$ #:z$ _! ) :( ) #:z ) :( O:/ E P+ *+V ):( )#:z g a( ) ) B a( g$ a$( $ < $ ) E $ $D $G $ $a$( $ E $V) B$ 8 x$ D ) G7 :! r ) e( ( # + *+ ( V) :$G $ ( g a( a( * * x! : H V(*+m ) G: $ $' g$:( )? B * x! ' ) : ( P )! $ $ $V $! *$+< ) e$( *'( +:>: ( _ ( >g< )! ( ) :$G $! $O@ ) $^8 *$ h$ $ $$ $ *$8 E :( $ ( #* Z+ * h =V >& n **! * g ( :E 7-7 *$*! $*$ $F 8 x$ D ) B$ $F@ $V ( g:( ) 9 +? B *$=/5*$ ) g( *( 7( C [( :rz / g a( a( $ *$=/ < D= *( RS *:7 *=/5* * ( V *=/5*@ *) w *:75 A$( $ g$:( $=V $ $ $P+ $ #:z$ $: # 7( C [ $ $a$( * ( O[ +[ t(8 '(9O[()* bg) ( a ) g:( 7( C [ * ( * T g a( w$ $! $ )$([ $ $ *$D >g$< ) N$+ ) $ C:_G? B D$ $$ ( $': $+! ) R$ V! =V $r $(A$( $)*$9$ $ ( ) ( P ) (*() $( $ F+ V ) e( ) G7 : O! ) *D :! $( $ $=V >$& w$ *$*! $5$ $! $ ([ 5 :7 * * ) C:_G? B

12 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 $' / :D? C r ) 775 ) $ / :D? 77 E * _s 8 76 ) 5/9$) $' ) $() ( $) # 7 ' S(/ H( U :O:-57/776 U :O:-/7 75 U :O: $ U $:O:66/8) g$ a$(! $V $$ ) 9 $+ > 77 g$$$+ 77 $$$ U $$$:O: 7/676 $$$ U $$$:O: 598/6 $$$ 75 **$ > $ $ $ 77 _+ ( ) a (85( <[) $/ )$ $ $ $< > $ C*$$ $' ) $VT }6$ *$! Z( : $: Z+$'O:$ $_(8 $' ) $VT > $ $ g (89 $V$/ F) (OO#: ) Z( : > ) < V) Z( OO#: $ *$= 8/8 /7 x$:$8 $ P+*$B( *$ 7( $ C $[ *$ e$( $: D$= : ) ) * '< ( 7 (9 O[ () C:_$G $F@ $ *{[ ) w # *: *@ 8 C:_$G *$(: $ A$: F+$ [ D 6 E F( E*[ : < >g< a( : 6[ $a$( $6[ C $[ $F@*$ $! $/ $8w$ ) ' 7( G: l$d * >g< F+ < >g< :7 :rz /8 )' ) R$ *$999 V) 78 (89 V/ F)* a( ( $_! $ + $ $ $ $( g $$ * **' H $79 $ *=5) OV % V (*: * e( ( rz8 8 $ :$' *$( g$:( $' ) $() #$ > $8 *=/ (85( <[)* '( V )79 G( Z( :E _m 77-8

13 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 89?C!'!-? < =>?@ A-B U95*$@ $ U*$@ ) $Z( 7' :87 _+ 7 a >g$< _!$ $ C$=$ 8 $ ) $a( ld C 6(9O[ ()*: 7' *:$*$=*$@ $ $a$( 6[ C [ C 6 G( ( < :_$G $6[(89O[ ( :') [ *=) ) 7( C [ *87 $U O! ) a( ) ( h: 7 ) X ) ) C:_G +[ / g$ a( a( * # (9O[ () # 7( C [ * $F *$=567*$ x$: 858 * *! ( m *$=>g$< ) R$ g a( a( *(89O[ ( :') $ $g( *$(8 $ $ ) e$( ) $ G7 $ $ O[ $() ( :! :8 $ : $! *$D $ B$ $ 8 ) Z+* $ *:86 *=5) >: * ' D= :X # *( **! $V {/ g a( g( V! i G@ ) a( <?(9 *$ hd$y_o! ) ( $( $U $ #$ $a$( *$ **$ >g$< F+ $ *:$ l$d C $ 6 g$ a$( $ ) $[ w$v $6[ a( P+*B( $' (87 $) $! 7( G: '< $ $/ )$ $: 7( $ C:_$G $6[ $F@ >g< r (8-87) **$' >g$< $ $ $ $ $(89$V$/ F$) $OV % $V (*$: * e( * / m ' / /9) $' $ ) e$( *$ *$ *$=66 $< $m G( 87 $ *$=/9) E$ e$( $< >g$< 87 $ *$=/ 86 *= (9O[ () *:87 *=5/86 *=8/ :F+ (8-87) _! g a( ( ) a( A:B/ N ( :Vz $ $ $ :X \ C [ 76 5 &8 765! *!&8- [ x +! + A:B/ x$ $ $ $_! g$ a$( $ $ ( ( ) a( ) O$= $$Zu$:O/ E $F( $+ RS* < (57-9)( ) (U $: $( :X g$! c $ $ P+*$B( (U) < > :X :X *D P*7 :X PG $ $V )$ $ $() ) *$+ [ A$:B/ Z 7( C:_G ( d( ) e( a( a: S e( 8 *+:7' Principle Component Analysis

14 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 C = g:(< C *V U _%V w*d) 7 9! )#7G V >& U $ $_ $ %V $( $ $ U a :):^ ) ) e( ( )Z( 8< E V : OV % V (*:(* 5):^ ) )8 _ E 7 :<C *V O@ :X C::X ( ) *( []@ :X ( ( ]* P ) Z( Z( * * D :X :XE *b x + : %V! xg@ G&(!< C *V U %V :GB! ) :X( D 7 _+ *( $:XE$ g$:( E O@* < O= 9+ ) : * )g:( OV % V (*: :X 7( $ C:_$G ( $d( $) e( a( a: S e( :X gf A$:B/ d($ ( $) *$+ + *$ $ /(C$::X e$()*$ e( C= #7G V >& A:B/ ( :X ( ) :X C::X e( / :) *$ e$( C$= :X : *: l< :X * e( / E*[:( $ $*$(+[$ A$:B/ * Z A:B/ ( _( :X < ::X (58-9)C= < > a g: _( * * k() *! (58-9) (58-9)?7 B-H6'> ( H6'> BQ?EOB P ( )Z( 8< E V Z( C = g: e( ( U a :) :^ ) ) : * e( < C *V U _ %V * e( ) )8 _ E 7 : * e( :^ Z( * : OV % V ( *: * e( V) () *V( 8 *+ :7'g! c P+*B( * e( a( a S e( >& 7( C:_G( d( ) e( O:*D) #7G V! * ) e( (< C *V U _ %V 5 5 A:B/N ( :Vz 76 5 :5&!&8- $$ (/ <D #::D: () () *! ) N ( + *$ G _(8 c ]* **9 /) a H( (58-87) $ )*$+ D<* *#::(5) *! T C= b)8a:b/ -88)( $) $ $) a$ *9 / H( ( (/ c Time Trend

15 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 9?C!'!-? < =>?@ A-B H$( $ $/H$$d+ ) $' # +* ` V(58 b)$8 *$ $ $7+ A:B/ # + *+ G7 * %:& / $ 8 ( (/ :X < + $ $(/$ $ $ $ :X < P #: g ƒ+d) *%:&' %:&$' C$= ($ $ (/:^ :X < P b$ P C [* %:&' g:( 8 / H( / H +[ a $:X $< $P $ $_! $ *+( A:B/ * ) $ ( C $Z #$ < PC Z H(#: / H *$ k g -) ( :E _m H( ( / ) / ) [ /C Z H( H * %:&' g:( (/ a *9 / ` V H( 9 (58-88)?7 H6'> R"- S O5 T5 :E H( ) / :E H( / E*[ : H( / 5 / H E*[ H *D) H( *9 / H( H( ) a < ` V (88-58) A:B/N ( :Vz i $&( : * < _ *(: / [ 7 * D 6 $ /) +:>:: :( ho& \ B( *E F( C D 6 G(8 * x$: F+$ $8 * G( U 7O[ ) [ 7 * (997)$ (99) $( : E $ (99)E D 6 C D 6 # O! )*( V (8) $7 O:$ (8) ()ƒ PG: (997))*( (< * $[F)*$+ [ $[ 7$ $*$ A$:B/ * G:m :( ()R:(:! $[ 7$ *$ $*$+ ($ ) : 8 i [ OGO G( gx Eg:( 7 *:t: a:+7 Learning Vectors Quantization Neural Network Model (LVQ)

16 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 $ ( &' *D*+6 P*7 &' P / 7 9 U *D ) 7' $P C $[$*$ $( *++ D< 9 7 b)8 P *(< U *$@ $ #:$ $ w ) [F ) 7' [ 7 $[ 7$ *$ $#$ ( $7+ $( )*$ &') 6 5 s $( *$ s $( $ : Eg:( 7) x 7 V ) G [ *(: / 7 R$ Eg:( $7 $ $+ $[ $7$ : $ e$( $ G( 8 : e( V ) *$(: $ / 7 E F( D G( 7 ) # b)8 U '( 8 #($)*$ $ $ $U a$ H( ) ( : U a U a ) 7' V : $$ Eg:( $$7 $$ $$[ 7$$ a$$ *$$+7$$ ( $$: $$G&( $$$$U $$[F ( 9 $ *$+$ : P G #7g+ A ) *(* (7 7 ( ))S _! BQE '? U -B MATLAB g<e( )8V + A:B/N ( :Vz Layer Neuron Training Algorithm Activation Functions 5 Supervised Learning 6 Unsupervised Learning 7 Learning Rate 8 Competitive Layer 9 Competitive Learning Nearest Neighbour

17 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 9?C!'!-? < =>?@ A-B 5>#?!<" ;<=5 $ \$ ]*$ $ $) Z *(: /* >& # b)$8*$+< $! x$ MATLABg$<E$( ) Z (58-87) ( ) E $F( $+D $ $( $ ) a$ *$ b)$8*+< b)8 ) *D $) *$D ]*$ $) C $Z #$ *: * 6V / * 8 (*$ b)$8 *$D ) $^8)*$ 8$ *$D $ $6V > _! (x?)* $ $ $:X $ \$ $B) 7$' ) Z >&# * $ ) 7$' $ ]*$ $) Z (58-87) ( ) A:B/ x&+ H$( $/ H$ E*$[ H d+ ))(58-87) \ ( H( P( : $/ $ () $/ H$)) $/ (/ H E*[)(/:^ +D(*9 / a H( #::D)* () / / g H)( / ( / H) 7$$ *$$ ( $$ *$$ $$k() *$$! $$ $$F C $$D 6 $$ s $$( $$ $$ $$) * 5 ( x N ( < b)8 LVQ[ ]*$ $ $ ( *! LVQ* b)8 T E)U : $$_! b)$8 A ) * *+( F]* ( ( ) $G&( \ < E F(( ) : A< ) : *b)8 * *$+( *b)8(58-87) ( ) \]* ( $) $ \$ $ E $ *$ ( *: c * (88-9) A< ) : E F( $ * : ) : A< (89-9) ( ) b)8(58-88) $) $G [ x$:$ *$ b)$8 $ \$ ( $) $g:( E _m E x$:$ *$ ) $:$ A$<$ \$ ( $) $(58-9) (58-89)( ) ) \ [F b)8 E F(:9 (9-9)) G [ $B *$ ) $:$ A$< \ ' ( ) ) 8 9 'g< ( ) $+ $9 $ *$9$ $ $/ %:&$' >g< * #7m$ $+[$(58-87) ( $) ) i &( :* ) :*+< / *$D $$ $ ) $ >g$<)b)$8 $ * b)8 \:( ) ) / +*+< ) *8 N ( :D#) G [ (b)8

18 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th *$! $( :D + )OV *E F( >n C D 6 ) Z $/ 8 ) R$ $: H$ $87 $ $ $ $ $/ #V8 $ ) $G [ *$ b)$8 $#:$G&( $ \$ ( $) ) # + * k() *( e P $$( $$( 87 $$ $$+D $$ $$ *$$ $$ + $$(/ $$ #$$V8 $$58 ( * LVQ * b)8 *+< ) :D \()-(5) b)8 ( '; *- b)8 *+< \ P( :() ( : ( d(]= _(8 8 ) B F@ *@) >: >g< ) :O! *+< * * b)8 ( ) a $ 6V A$: $B $ \$() $( 6V F #:P( : %V *( (*@ /5)Z= ag( b)8 $*$+$ B:ZO R P( :() ( * b)8*+< (58-87) +D * b)8 ) \ ) _(8 Z+ *+< _! * }:/= *$ $ b)$8*$+< $ *O: * E F(( ( H()]* ( H( x *$+< $ *$ $V w$ *$E $F( $*+ : A:B/ *7O[ g:( (5) ( * ( ( :( x ]* ( s ( b)8 LVQ R"- SE F@ E6 -B R"- S / LVQ F@ MV WB -B Mean Squared Error (MSE)

19 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 95?C!'!-? < =>?@ A-B E!-> Y-?> &Z +:>: LVQ ^Z=> 5-B A-V WB H(> XE> -B (\ ) [')] (\) [') \ *b)8 *(: /* *+( ]* F+ ) Z$ $(b)8 *+< ) *b)8 *9 *9 / N $( () $: *+<)( ) :(88-9) \ $(/ P ƒ -5 G * P C D_: ( ) :) $ $< $( $) b)$8 $(58-87) $ $ $ $:X (/:^ ƒ$(88-9) $ $ \ ' _( :X ) Z $( *b)8 *) :*+< < ) : 9 / $ $ $ $/ #:': *9 / H( #: 'ƒ $ $ $ $:X ** ' ` V P #: 8 P C [:G 9! < #:': (/ :X # < P 9 ) N $($( $+:>:$ 9 $ $/ $ $ $ $$/ #:': P + $ \ $ (b)8 *+< )*b)8 *(: /*) : 9 $ *$9 /+:>: %:&' * ( E*[ P( :(88-9) ( ) #:$$: $$ +$$ $$ (58-87) *$$9$$ $$ $$$$/ $$+ $$ $ *$9$ $ $/ $P C $D_* OV D >n C D 6 +* 9$ $ $ $/ $+[$ $ $ + $ t(8 c ( 9 C= b)8*+< LVQ*) : 8 ) N ((6)*! ( #:: * (58-89)(58-88) (58-87) ( $) ) Z$ $(B$G b)$8 $ )B$G Confusion Matrix Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Simulation

20 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 ]*$ $ *) :) N+* :(6) *! t( * :*b)8(58-9) $+D9 _+() :A<)( )A<(b)8 s () / +:>: * 9 (9-9) (89-9) (88-9) $+[$98889 $ E _m E ( ) c b)8*+< T E)U (/ G(+[ + D 6 : ) <D LVQ* (/:^ $ g$:( 8 $ ( E[ (/ +[ D 6 a _+ 88gF) ) N $( $+ [ ( +( <D G:( < () *! Y*+ :D + d( * <D (/ (89-9 $ :)E (88-9 :) A< * ) : *$($+( $<D $(/ +[ ) a :(9 :)E \ [F b)8 E F( : 7+ )*+ [* d( E)U 7( T *F * B *) :' A< \ ' ( ) ) 8 9 'g< ( ) ) $ $ $$/ $+ $9 $ *$9$ $ $/ %:&$' >g< / P #: ' E*[ P( : (6)*! Y*+ N ( 7+ P * ) :*+< $(/ $P $+ $9 $ $/ $ $+:>:$ :^ 9 / P $ $ /[+$ $[ 7$ * ) Z i &( G* ( #:': ** ' * Z N ( #7 P * ) Z *(: _( " S " <)/ _EB6 5 ( ) ) :) N ( ) : / C Z P 9 / ' / H E*[) #:': (88-9) ( *+:': / / C Z P 9 / ' / H E*[) #:': (89-9) (9989 #:': / / C Z P 9 / ' / H E*[) #:': (9-9) (9 9 *+:': / / C Z P 9 / ' / H E*[) #:': 9 (9 *+:': / ( ) b)8 (58-87) (58-88) (58-89) (58-9) A:B/N ( :Vz

21 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 97?C!'!-? < =>?@ A-B $' $ /:+:>: %:&' ( _+ ( )8*+< LVQ* *$ $ $$/ #$ $_+ b)$8*+< ) e t(8 $ $D6 $! a ) P C [ < _(8 D * *?[ A$ )$ / %:&' E*[ P ) 9 / ) $ $/ $ < F:( ( #:': / c )*b)8lvq* $+[$$ $ + $ $t(8 C Z P ) 9 *9 #:$': $$/ $! $P A$:B/ *$ $) V e / x$ *$ b)$8 N $( *$+< bg$ $)$< $< b)$8*$+< $ $/$+:>:$ %:&$' *$ $( E*$[ # $+ ( * 8() (5) ( ƒ*$( :$G $' $ C Z P 9! P # P( :9 * # / H (/ a9 * + <>: # A:B/ *:7m +[ O! ) B ho& >& <>: # * _ :D a D6 a( + * 8(5) *! (P( [ < *:z *B >g< *@(' :^ ) )) e( 9 G( 9 g a( ( ) ( ) [ *: *= E e( *=75 >g< 7 e( < )O:/ +! E ) R H )>: ) a : (58-9) +D A:B/ d( ( V OV % V (*: Z+ * e( * (59-67 ) G [ O:/ +! H * e( ) * *@6\B m OV % V (*: * e( ( _( C= :D # *u g:( g a( 8 # + *: 9 *=- e( 9 *= A:B/ # t(ĥ+ + * 9 / A:B/ <>: _ ( ) / * * ' P #: G B :G 8 ( 9 *9 :V / (58-87)

22 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th $$ $$/ $$ $$_+ $$( $$) $$ $$ CU$$/ $$ $$_ $$t(8 #:': / C Z P / *{[ * 9 ** / _+ ( ) CU/ #:: \{/ ) >: F+ '( *+< : [ P'+ a / - < P + A:B/ * :* d( E)U 7( *+m T 9 / H _s O@ _( * s / H ) N ( ( ) n :X : [ 8; <= ( ) ( : H U ) O! ) :^ ) P C [ ) +D :O[ OO#: / [ ]= P C [ e : P'+ - _s +D E[ # e / E[ ( ) 7O G:( / D< +[ e / V '(*+< * : [ H )N+ C [ 9 / ': [ ) 7 : P'+ [ 6 / _ :X < P)/ _s ) N ( ) OO#: - / [ ) / 9 / *(( _s O@ / H ) _s P C [ '( *+< :D # ) G [ g # O[ O! ) * C Z ; 6 G B 6 C Z V : / '( *+< E F( ) ( V CU/ ::X : ) ( C Z # * CZ ; *( 9 8 / '( *+< C Z r / _s ) w C Z! 7 # + * [ H ^:O[ 6 G B 9 V! C Z : * d( B6+;! ) G7 : P'+ P ) G [ * d(* _(8#: ' / P A:B/ t(8[- A:B/ )' _ :X ) [F g < g < P B 9 / H ) (5) () *! ) :X E < P G B ( #:': *9 / :X Z( C=l< / _s

23 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 99?C!'!-? < =>?@ A-B $O! ) $Z( $8$< E $V $Z( b$< ) > ' _! $ / B >g< ) N+ OG # ( ) 9 #) $ 8 8< Z( b< ):G ' ( * :O[ ) < *+< * Z( 8< E V Z( b< A< *! 7' $ :G > m ( U)OO#: D ) x *8 $O! ) *$ $! 7$' $ $V $Z( b< *+< : ) P $' $ $ $Z( B( * >7Z( : k ) OO#: : H + $( $! $&$ $ g$:( $ $Z( $7g:< B( OG # *( *V $O $ *$@ x$ 8 $ $V $( $_+ $ $Z( *V ' * x! / ) $_+ $' ) :( 9< * x! :D # *+ ( U x ()V $a$( $ a$ ) $ $$/ $r * 7 Z( *V ' A $( $a( xd P ) *(( OO#: _( *$( *$8 $D<:^ $ $_(8 $! $V $a( 7 E*[ : g:( ' Y V *+ ( ] ' ) CU B( B( \ ) :( *+G(( $ $ $! $#:z$ $_( bg '! ([ >& # $G: A$ ) $[#:z g a( h:o7 F ) #:z) w ([ $D: OG # 8 < ' P+*B( F@ ** >g< C!(7( A$< $ $G( $=V >$& +:*$ b$g $! * ' E e( >g< x! x$ D$< > C* =V >& ' xg y< w $< A$:[ $ a *: >& * *! x:8 m xg y< 8 $ ($D >$&) *$: >$& $ #< d( * (<? / * E $F( $_! $ ) $) $ * ) F+ P+*B( U * ' ) 9 $+ > ) )?[ ) ( ) # * () Z 7( e( B >g< # ( **' OO#: /: ( : D< **$ >g<* ( :O! a( ) E w 9 + YV *! ) G(( g:( *x! P ) *: >& a ) ) ) : >g< P+*B( B E e( # ' *!E e( *D >g< '

24 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 7 6$ * e()88 ) ) G( >8^:O[ * 9 $ *$) $^889 $ $ 7 : *=>g< ) (*= >g$< $ g:( ) ) ( ( 7 : *=68* e() ) **' [ *$=7*$ $ $ ) 9 _( * ** ) e( *=8 e$( *:$ $V Y $$:^) ) $ ) $: *$=9>g< ) 7 : $< >g$< 9 $ *=5e( 8988 *=) g:( 'E ( F9 *=e( $< > 9 *= 89 *=6) ' * e( # ) a$ :$ + $ $ $T $ $\B$*=- e$( $9 $ $ _( = 8 ) : P'+ [ a!! _(8 / $:rz*$($ru$ $( +<8>B( 9 / H / $: $ [ *$( e $:( + $_7: $/ ) *(*'( s $ $' $ $$/$$ O! )*( ) z'+ / *++) ^8 >$B( $*+$ $78 / H ) ( ( (8-) E)U ( Z ' / ) ^8 )z'+ : P'+ a $ OVz'+ / ) ^8 : [ 8 78 / T ig/ 78 )*: / a /P C [ $ $9$ $' $ $/!ED!5ABC6 $$ O! ) H$( $' $P 9 $ $' / 8 G+ $$/ 56 ' $ C _' V #^:O[ 7+ : +:>: '**9 / +:>: :^ ' * 9 /H( C Z P #:': C $D 6 $ A$ ) $ $ *: / H #::D ) A:B/ $ CU$/ $T $ $/ $$<D $ /: ' *E F( P( : d( )*8 N ( *V / H U #:: ( ) AOD V ( ) / / H( H _! g a( ( ) a( + * /

25 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8?C!'!-? < =>?@ A-B *$ Y&$ (58-9) $ $ $ :X RS* $*$(+[(58-87) :X B ) Z $ $ $ $/ H( / H E*[ H \ $+ (/:^ (/ P : _! *(: /* ]* *(+[ $ $ $+ $$ *$b)$8 *$ 8$ $ b)8 (/ P H( _< (88-9)>:$ $ *$9 / ( (88-9) #$ $ $ *$ bp C [ *V 9 / )+:>: #:: *$9$ $$/ $ ' P 9 / 8 v > $:X $< $+ b)8 * 7+ A:B/ j ( #:$ g $ƒ$+d)*$ %:&$' $ 8 $( $ $(/ $ $ $:X $< $P $ $(/$ $ $ $ $:X < P $ $+[$ $ a$ %:&$' C= [( (/:^ #:$ $' E*[ P( : A:B/ * N ( *%:&' g:( 8 / H( / H $ $ $T $ E)U $' $ $$/:+:>:$ %:&' ( _+ $ ( $ +:':S: $/ 9 $ $' $ $/ ( )8*+< LVQ* *$ $ / # _+ b)8*+< ) * e t(8 ) D6! a ) P C [ < _(8 D * *?[ A$ ) $ $/ %:&$' E*$[ $P $ ) 9 $ $ $ $ $/ *$9$ $ / < F:( ( #:': / c )*b)8lvq* $ V e /+[ + t(8 C Z P )9 b)$8*$+< $ #:': /! P V A:B/ * ) $ƒ*$( :$G $' $ C $Z P 9! P < < *{[ 9 / _+ ( ) CU/ _( *$ #:$:$ *$* #:': / C Z P / %:&$' $_! 9( $ 9! _ :G):(*+[+ t(8 + %:&$' $ [! ( (/ w ) %:&' ) / ) $$/ H$ *$*! $P%:&' ( /H *:z

26 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 7 l$< * e9 t(8 ' ( : 8 C D 6 _! 'n C _+':+[( P+*$B( / h 'Vm P"(87) )F G?F A FB ;!* 5-7%= 8 +'n"a y[ ' ROF >n g *( O[ : P+*B( * C::X(87) H"F ;!I $ $[ ) Z$ V) 7( /+:>:" (89) 8" ;!D 5-5%= +O< "( D 6) 8-- $_! *+*$' G: a #::" (89)!5*?F 5M ;!5BL ;N& ;!D ;OJKF ;L 69-%= 6 +O< " / + $ $ H$ ) >:$ *$' $G: a$:$ $ N /(85) G?F ;)F $ $ *() P'( ( G( EO[ *7'( $ :"$ $ 7( $ $/ +"(89)?F 5B 5M ;! 59-78%= 78 +O$< "$ $ $ $ $$/*$[ ) >:$ *$' $G: k" (8) P ;!* $ 7-5%= 7 >n : >n +O< " ) >+ %V /"(9)5B ;?F 5-%= (79-9) ( # Q!*RBC!KI S Allen, R E & D Snyder (9), "New Thinkings on Financial Crisis", Critical Prespective on International Business, Vol 5, PP 6-55 Apoteker, T & S Barthelemy (5)," Predicting Financial Crises in Emerging Markets Using a Composite Non-Parametric Model", Emerging Market Review, Vol 6, PP6-75 Bell, T B (997), "Neural Nets or the Logit Model? A Comparison of Each Model s Ability to Predict Commercial Bank Failures", International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, Vol 6, PP 9-6 Boyacioglu, M A, Kara, Y & O K Baykan (8), "Predicting Bank Financial Failures Using Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines and Multivariate Statistical Methods: AComparative Analysis in the Sample of Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (SDIF) Transferred Banks in Turkey", Expert Systems with Applications, Vol 6, No Bonis, R D, Giustiniani, A & G Gomel (999),"Crises and Bail Outs of Banks and Countries: Linkages, Analogies and Differences", The World Economy, Vol, PP 55-86

27 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8?C!'!-? < =>?@ A-B Bussiere, M & Fratzscher, "Towards a New Early Warning System of Financial Crises", Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol 5, PP Cipollini, A & G Kapetanios (9), "Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia Using Dynamic Factor Analysis", Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol 6, PP 88- Claessen, S, Kose, M A & M E Terrones (), "The Global Financial Crisis: How Simillar? How Different? How Costly?", Journal of Asian Economics, Vol, PP 7-6 Demyanyk, Y & I Hasan (), "Financial Crises and Bank Failures: A Review of Prediction Methods", Omega: The International Journal of Management Science, Vol 8, PP 5- Friedman, M & A J Schwartz (96), "A Monetary History of United States (87-96)", Prinston University Press, Prinston Giovanis, E (), "Application of Logit Model and Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) for the Prediction of Financial Crisis Periods in US Economy", Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Vol, No, PP 98-5 Haung, W, Zheng, H & W M Chia (), "Financial Crisis and Heterogenous Interacting Agents", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol, PP 5- Kalotychou, E & S K Staikouras (6), "An Empirical Investigation of the Loan Concentration Risk in Latin America", Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Vol 6, PP 6-8 Kasstra, I & M Boid (996), "Designing a Neural Network for Forcasting Financial and Economic Time Series", Neurocomputing, Vol, PP 5-6 Kindelberger, C P (978), "Manias, Panics and Crashes", McMillan, London Kohonen, T (), "Self-Organizing Maps", Springer, 5 Pages Minsky, H P (97), "Financial Stabilities Revisited: The Economy of Disaster", Board of Governors of Federal Reserve Discount Mechanism, Vol, Washington DC, PP 95-6 Mishkin, F (99), "Anatomy of Financial Crisis", Journal of Evoloutionary Economy, Vol, PP 5- Niemira, M P & T L Saaty (), "An Analytic Network Process Model for Financial- Crisis Forecasting", International Journal of Forecasting, Vol, PP Olmeda, I & E Fernandez (997), "Hybrid Classifiers for Financial Multicriteria Decision Making: The Case of Bankruptcy Prediction", Computational Economics, Vol, PP 7-5 Ranciere, R & A Tornell, "Was the US Crisis a Financial Black-Hole?", IMF Economic Rewiew, Vol 5, PP 7-6 Ravi, V &C Pramodh (8), "Threshold Accepting Trained Principal Component Neural Network and Feature Subset Selection: Application to Bankruptcy Prediction in Banks", Applied Soft Computing, Vol 8, No, PP 59-8 Reagle, D & D Salvatore(), "Forcasting Financial Crisis in Emerging Market Economics",Open Economies Review, Vol, PP 7-59 Reinhart, C M & K S Rogoff (8), "Is the 7 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis so Different?", Working Paper 76, NBER Schwartz, A J (986), "Real and Pseudo Financial Crisis", Financial Crisis and the World Banking System, McMillan, London, PP- Swicegood, P & J A Clark (), "Off-Site Monitoring Systems for Predicting Bank Underperformance: AComparison of Neural Networks, Discriminant Analysis and Professional Human Judgment", International Journal of Intelligent Systems inaccounting, Finance and Management, Vol, PP Tam, K Y (99), "Neural Network Models and the Prediction of Bank Bankruptcy", Omega: The International Journal of Management Science, Vol9, No 5, PP 9-5

28 Downloaded from qjerpir at :6 + on Tuesday September 8th 8 7 Tam, K Y & M Kiang (99), "Predicting Bank Failures: ANeural Network Approach", Decision Sciences,Vol, PP 96-7 Tang, Q H, Liu, B H, Chen, Y Q, Zhou X H & J SDing,"Application of LVQ Neural Network Combined with the Genetic Algorithm in Acoustic Seafloor Classification", Chinese Journal of Geophysics, Vol 5, PP 9-98 Thawornwong, S & D Enke (), "The Adaptive Selection of Financial and Economic Variables for Use with Artificial Neural Networks", Neurocomputing, Vol 56, PP 5- Wanfeng, Y, Woodard, R & D Sornette (), "Leverage Bubble", Physica A,Vol 9, PP 8-86 Yan, W, Woodard, R & D Sornette(), "Leverage Bubbleσ", Physica A, Vol 9, PP 8-86