Colgate-Palmolive India HOLD

Transcription

1 16 October 2017 India Consumer Company Update Colgate-Palmolive India HOLD Tepid volume performance; Market-share loss continued Colgate s volume performance remained tepid due to the carry-over impact of GST transition issues which adversely impacted demand from the Wholesale trade at the start of the quarter. On an intrinsic basis, sales grew 2.8% as 0.9% decline in volumes was more than offset by 3.8% growth in net realisation, which represents the benefit of carry-over pricing, even though some part of it was passed on to offset the cut in tax-rates under GST. As per management, the 8-9% reduction in selling prices post GST has been well received but benefit of the same on growth is likely to be seen only with some lag once the pipeline of higher-priced inventory in the trade is cleared. In the interim, Colgate seems to have had another c.100bps of market share erosion in toothpaste between Apr 17 and Aug 17, as per our workings - likely due to its relatively higher exposure to the rural wholesale trade which has not yet recovered completely. Gross margin expansion and lower advertisement spends (down 6.8% YoY) drove a healthy 9.4% growth in EBITDA. We see limited upside on the stock given weak business momentum and rich valuation of c.42x NTM earnings. Volume performance remains muted: Colgate s 2QFY18 net sales, EBITDA and adjusted net profit grew 2.8%, 9.4% and 5.2% to INR10.8bn, INR3bn and INR1.8bn respectively. Better profit growth was aided by GPM expansion (47bps YoY due to benefit from carryover pricing), cut in A&P spends (down 6.8%) and good control on overheads (helped by some savings in octroi etc as well). Volumes fell 1% YoY during the quarter on soft wholesale demand in the early part of the quarter - traction is, however, a tad better vs the 3-12% decline seen over past 3 quarters. Price-cut benefit plus a very favourable comparator from 3QFY18 onwards should help the company report near double-digit volume growth in the latter half of FY18E, we believe. As a part of its ongoing initiatives in the Naturals space, the company recently launched Colgate Swarna Vedshakti, a more premium variant of Cibaca Vedshakti. Sharp decline in A&P spends lifted profit performance: GPM expansion moderated to 47bps in 2QFY18 vs much higher levels seen in recent quarters; benefit of cut in tax-rate on toothpaste under GST has been passed on to consumers through 8-9% selling prices reduction. The benefit of the price-cut on volumes, though, would be visible only when the existing higher-priced inventory in the trade gets exhausted. EBITDA margin expansion was quite sharp, though, at 168bps which was also aided by a 6.8% A&P cut an unexpected move given the high competitive intensity in the space. The company s strict control on other expenses was also visible this, though, was helped in part by abolition of octroi, etc under the GST regime. Working capital has, however, gone up - receivables more than doubled vs Sep LY due to higher credit extended to channel partners to support the GST transition - this is likely a temporary phenomenon. Further market share losses in both Toothpaste and Toothbrushes: Colgate s Toothpaste volume market share for Jan-Aug 17 stood at 54.0% - 30bps lower vs 54.3% market share reported for the Apr-Jun 17 period. This implies that Colgate s share has probably dropped c.100bps or so between Apr 17 and Aug 17 quite a disappointment compared to the steadier trend seen in the previous quarter. The Toothbrush business also seems to have witnessed some severe market share loss the current run-rate is likely at approx. 42% vs c.48% at the start of the calendar year. Financial Summary JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited (INR mn) Y/E March FY16A* FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E Sales 43,190 44,898 47,723 53,258 60,120 Sales growth (%) EBITDA 9,385 9,449 10,724 12,175 14,016 EBITDA (%) Adjusted net profit 5,708 5,613 6,411 7,346 8,582 EPS (INR) EPS growth (%) ROIC (%) ROE (%) PE (x) Price/Book Value (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Dividend Yield (%) Source: Company data, JM Financial. Note: Valuation as of 16/Oct/2017. *Note: FY16 growth impacted by Ind-AS transition. Richard Liu richard.liu@jmfl.com Tel: (91 22) Vicky Punjabi vicky.punjabi@jmfl.com Tel: (91 22) Recommendation and Price Target Current Reco. HOLD Previous Reco. HOLD Current Price Target (12M) 1,170 Upside/(Downside) 10.2% Previous Price Target 1,135 Change 3.2% Key Data CLGT IN Current Market Price Market cap (bn) INR1,063 INR289.2/US$4.5 Free Float 43% Shares in issue (mn) Diluted share (mn) mon avg daily val (mn) INR341.6/US$ week range 1,178/861 Sensex/Nifty 32,634/10,231 INR/US$ 64.7 Price Performance % 1M 6M 12M Absolute Relative* * To the BSE Sensex JM Financial Research is also available on: Bloomberg - JMFR <GO>, Thomson Publisher & Reuters S&P Capital IQ and FactSet Thomson Publisher & Reuters Please S&P Capital see Appendix IQ and FactSet I at the end of this Please see Appendix I at the end of this report for Important Disclosures and

2 Exhibit 1. 2Q & 1HFY18 result snapshot (INR mn) 2QFY18 2QFY17 YoY chg 2QFY18E % var 1HFY18 1HFY17 YoY chg Net Sales 10,780 10, % 11, % 20,474 20, % Other Operating Income % % % Total Revenue 10,849 10, % 11, % 20,630 20, % Gross Profit 6,810 6, % 6, % 12,921 12, % Gross Profit Margin % 63.2% 62.7% 47 bps 63.2% -7 bps 63.1% 62.4% 75 bps Staff Cost % % 1,551 1, % A&P 1,192 1, % 1, % 2,626 2, % Other Expenses 1,858 1, % 1, % 3,676 3, % EBITDA 3,006 2, % 3, % 5,224 4, % EBITDA margin % 27.9% 26.2% 168 bps 27.6% 31 bps 25.5% 23.7% 185 bps Depreciation % % % EBIT 2,614 2, % 2, % 4,460 4, % EBIT margin % 24.3% 23.0% 122 bps 24.2% 8 bps 21.8% 20.5% 128 bps Net Financial Other Income % % % PBT 2,703 2, % 2, % 4,673 4, % PBT after exceptional 2,703 2, % 2, % 4,673 4, % Tax % 948-2% 1,533 1, % Net Profit 1,776 1, % 1, % 3,140 3, % Adjusted Net Profit 1,758 1, % 1, % 3,044 2, % Exhibit 2. Costs breakdown % of sales 2QFY18 2QFY17 2QFY18E 1HFY18 1HFY17 Cost of Goods Sold 36.8% 37.3% 36.8% 36.9% 37.6% Staff Cost 7.6% 7.0% 6.8% 7.6% 7.2% Advertisement 11.1% 12.2% 12.3% 12.8% 13.8% Other Expenses 17.2% 18.1% 17.5% 18.0% 18.5% Exhibit 3. Operating margin movement 2QFY18 29% 28% +115bps +6bps 27.9% 27% +47bps 26.2% 26% 25% Margin aided by improved realisation cuts in A&P spends and controls on other expenses 24% OPM - 2QFY17 GP Margin Ad Spends Staff & Other Expenses - Net OPM - 2QFY18 JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 2

3 Exhibit 4. Quarterly sales growth trend Exhibit 5. Toothpaste volume growth trend 20% 14% 8% 2% 15.8%15.9% 13.4% 12.6%10.9% 11.8% 11.0% Net Sales Growth % - YoY 6.8% 5.5% 3.8% 1.8% 12.5% 9.8% 2.6% 2.8% 15% 9% 3% -3% 9% 11% 7% 4% 7% 5% 5% Toothpaste Volume Growth 3% 3% 0% 3% 5% 3% -4% -5% -1% -4% -2.8% -9% -10% -8.6% 2QFY14 4QFY14 2QFY15 4QFY15 2QFY16 4QFY16 2QFY17 4QFY17 2QFY18-12% -15% 2QFY14 4QFY14 2QFY15 4QFY15 2QFY16 4QFY16 2QFY17 4QFY17 2QFY18 Exhibit 6. A&P trend 21% 20.2% A&P - % of Sales Ind-AS Exhibit 7. Adjusted net profit growth trend 20% YoY Adjusted Net Profit Growth % 18% 16% 20% 21% 17% 13% 9% 18.0% 15.1% 13.6% 11.2% 11.5% 10.4% 15.5% 12.2% 9.7% 14.0% 14.8% 11.1% 10% 0% -10% -20% 2% 11% 4% -9% 8% -11% 1% 7% -14% 0% 2% 5% 5% 2QFY15 4QFY15 2QFY16 4QFY16 2QFY17 4QFY17 2QFY18-25% -30% 2QFY14 4QFY14 2QFY15 4QFY15 2QFY16 4QFY16 2QFY17 4QFY17 2QFY18 Exhibit 8. Colgate - toothpaste market share trend 58% 56% 54% 56.0% 57.1%57.0% 56.7%56.7% 56.0% Toothpaste Market Share % 57.8% 57.9% 57.6% 57.3% 55.7%55.9% 55.7% 55.4% 55.1% 54.3% 54.0% Exhibit 9. Decline in toothpaste market share continued 59% 57% 55% 58.1% 57.0% 56.5% Toothpaste Market Share % 55.3% 55.9% 55.7% 54.6% 54.3% 54.3% 52% 50% 53% 53.0% 48% 2QFY14 4QFY14 2QFY15 4QFY15 2QFY16 4QFY16 2QFY17 4QFY17 2QFY18 51% May-Jun'15 Jul-Sep'15 Oct-Dec'15 Mar'16 Jun'16 Jul-Sep'16 Oct-Dec'16 Jan-Mar'17 Apr-Jun'17 Jul-Aug'17 JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 3

4 Exhibit 10. Summary of estimate changes (INR mn) Colgate FY18 FY19 FY20 Current Sales 47,723 53,258 60,120 EBITDA 10,724 12,175 14,016 Adjusted Net Profit 6,411 7,346 8,582 EPS Earlier Sales 49,648 55,585 62,761 EBITDA 10,693 12,225 14,091 Adjusted Net Profit 6,402 7,405 8,662 EPS Change - % Sales -3.9% -4.2% -4.2% EBITDA 0.3% -0.4% -0.5% Adjusted Net Profit 0.1% -0.8% -0.9% EPS 0.1% -0.8% -0.9% Exhibit 11. Colgate one-year forward PE band x x 20x x 0 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 4

5 Financial Tables (Standalone) Profit & Loss Statement (INRmn) Balance Sheet (INRmn) Y/E March FY16A* FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E Y/E March FY16A* FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E Net sales (Net of excise) 43,190 44,898 47,723 53,258 60,120 Shareholders' Fund 10,310 12,738 15,730 16,959 18,188 Growth (%) 9.2% 4.0% 6.3% 11.6% 12.9% Share capital Other Operating Income Reserves & Surplus 10,038 12,466 15,458 16,687 17,916 Tota l Re ve nue 43,491 45,202 48,045 53,618 60,526 Preference Share Capital Cost of Goods Sold/Op. Exp. 19,572 20,147 21,242 23,557 26,374 Minority Interest Personnel cost 2,624 2,885 3,102 3,451 3,884 Total Loans Other expenses 11,910 12,721 12,977 14,435 16,252 Def. Tax Liab / Assets (-) EBITDA 9,385 9,449 10,724 12,175 14,016 Tota l - Equity & Lia b 10,407 13,013 15,778 16,748 17,674 EBITDA (%) 21.7% 21.0% 22.5% 22.9% 23.3% Net Fixed Assets 10,865 12,747 13,661 13,842 13,346 EBITDA Growth (%) 14.1% 0.7% 13.5% 13.5% 15.1% Gross Fixed Assets 11,184 13,517 16,017 18,017 19,517 Depn & Amort 1,114 1,332 1,586 1,819 1,996 Intangible Assets EBIT 8,271 8,116 9,138 10,356 12,020 Less: Depn. & Amort. 1,103 2,435 4,021 5,840 7,837 Other Income Capital WIP 784 1,666 1,666 1,666 1,666 Finance Cost Investments PBT before Excep & Forex 8,666 8,514 9,655 11,063 12,924 Current Assets 8,852 10,175 12,615 14,587 17,472 Excep & forex Inc/Loss(-) Inventories 2,915 2,926 3,110 3,502 3,953 PBT 8,353 8,514 9,655 11,063 12,924 Sundry Debtors 1,015 1, ,103 1,245 Taxes 2,541 2,740 3,243 3,716 4,342 Cash & Bank Balances 2,887 2,943 5,359 6,666 8,791 Extraordinary Inc/Loss(-) Loans & Advances 1,021 1,770 1,859 1,952 2,049 Assoc. Profit/Min. Int.(-) Other Current Assets 1,013 1,238 1,300 1,365 1,433 Reported Net profit 5,812 5,774 6,411 7,346 8,582 Current Liab. & Prov. 9,622 10,221 10,872 12,130 13,682 Adjuste d Ne t Profit 5,708 5,613 6,411 7,346 8,582 Current Liabilities 7,918 8,669 9,050 10,049 11,278 Net Margin (%) 13.2% 12.5% 13.4% 13.8% 14.3% Provisions & Others 1,703 1,552 1,822 2,081 2,404 Diluted share capital (mn) Net Current Assets ,743 2,457 3,790 Dilute d EPS (Rs) Application of Funds 10,407 13,013 15,778 16,748 17,674 Diluted EPS Growth 2.1% -1.7% 14.2% 14.6% 16.8% Total Dividend + Tax 3,274 3,289 5,129 6,612 7,724 Dividend Per Share (Rs) Cash Flow Statement (INRmn) Dupont Ana lysis Y/E March FY16A* FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E Y/E Ma rch FY16A* FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E Profit before Tax 8,353 8,514 9,655 11,063 12,924 Net Margin 13.2% 12.5% 13.4% 13.8% 14.3% Depn. & Amort. 1,114 1,332 1,586 1,819 1,996 Asset Turnover (x) Net Interest Exp. / Inc. (-) Leverage Factor (x) Inc (-) / Dec in WCap RoE 63.4% 48.7% 45.0% 44.9% 48.8% Others Ke y Ra tios Taxes Paid -2,524-3,014-3,074-3,584-4,167 Y/E Ma rch FY16A* FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E Ope ra ting Ca sh Flow 6,887 6,880 7,881 8,793 10,164 BV/Share (INR) Capex -2,713-3,212-2,500-2,000-1,500 ROIC (%) 97.0% 66.3% 62.3% 69.3% 85.4% Free Cash Flow 4,175 3,668 5,381 6,793 8,664 ROE (%) 63.4% 48.7% 45.0% 44.9% 48.8% -Inc/dec in investments Net Debt-equity ratio (x) Other current assets PER Inve sting Ca sh Flow -2,366-3,422-2,046-1, PBV Inc/(dec) in capital EV/EBITDA Dividend+Tax Thereon -3,758-3,270-3,419-6,118-7,353 EV/Net Sales Inc/dec in loans Debtor days Other assets Inventory days Fina ncing Ca sh Flow -3,914-3,405-3,420-6,118-7,354 Creditor days Inc / De c (-) in Ca sh ,416 1,307 2,125 Opening cash balance 2,280 2,890 2,943 5,359 6,666 Closing cash balance 2,887 2,943 5,359 6,666 8,791 *Note: Growth for FY16 shown in above impacted by Ind-AS transition. FY16 LTL Sales, EBITDA and adjusted EPS grew 4.5%, 13.3% and 1.3% respectively JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 5

6 History of Earnings Estimate and Target Price Date FY18E EPS (INR) % Chg. FY19E EPS (INR) % Chg. Target Price % Chg. 19-May Jul Oct Aug Oct Dec Jan May Aug , Recommendation History Colgate-Palmolive India 1400 H 1200 S S S S S S S H H H Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Target Price Colgate-Palmolive India JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Page 6

7 APPENDIX I JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited Corporate Identity Number: U65192MH1995PLC Member of BSE Ltd. and National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. and Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Ltd. SEBI Registration Nos.: BSE - INZ , NSE - INZ and MSEI - INZ , Research Analyst INH Registered Office: 7th Floor, Cnergy, Appasaheb Marathe Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai , India. Board: Fax: jmfinancial.research@jmfl.com Compliance Officer: Mr. Sunny Shah Tel: sunny.shah@jmfl.com Definition of ratings Rating Meaning Buy Total expected returns of more than 15%. Total expected return includes dividend yields. Hold Price expected to move in the range of 10% downside to 15% upside from the current market price. 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