Thomson Reuters LPC Loan Conference Middle Market Panel Discussion September 22, 2011
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1 Thomson Reuters LPC Loan Conference Middle Market Panel Discussion September 22, 2011
2 Middle Market Panel Regions Capital Markets Terry Katon Managing Director and Group Head Madison Capital Devon Russell Managing Director Banc of America Merrill Lynch Anne Skoronski Managing Director Tricadia Capital John McCormick Managing Director Middle Market Panel Discussion
3 Table of Contents Today s Agenda SECTION 1 Overall Trends SECTION 2 Pricing SECTION 3 Sponsored Market SECTION 4 Non-Sponsored Market SECTION 5 Junior Capital SECTION 6 Other Topics 3 Middle Market Panel Discussion
4 Overall Trends Section 1
5 ($ in billions) Overall Trends Refinancings continue to lead bulk of middle market lending, but new money gains ground Middle Market Loan Issuance Refi v. New Money $60.0 $50.0 $40.0 $30.0 $20.0 $10.0 $0.0 Refinancings $16.7 billion to date in 3Q11 $30.3 billion in 2Q11 Up 37% from 1Q11 Up 32% from 2Q10 New money $11.4 billion to date in 3Q11 $21.1 billion in 2Q11 Up 39% from 1Q11 Up 50% from 2Q10 Refinancing New money (beg. 1Q03) 5 Middle Market Panel Discussion *Middle Market definition: 1) Borrower sales size $500 million or less 2) Deal Size $500 million or less 3) See additional exclusionary criteria in Guidelines on LoanConnector. Traditional MM is deal size < $100.0MM
6 ($ in billions) Overall Trends After a strong three quarter run, issuance slows in 3Q11 Middle Market Loan Issuance Large v. Traditional $60.0 $50.0 $40.0 $30.0 $20.0 $10.0 $0.0 Large middle market: $21.7 billion to date in 3Q11 $41.0 billion in 2Q11 Up 37% from 1Q11 Up 46% from 2Q10 Traditional middle market: $6.3 billion to date in 3Q11 $10.5 billion in 2Q11 Up 39% from 1Q11 Up 14% from 2Q10 Large Traditional *Middle Market definition: 1) Borrower sales size $500 million or less 2) Deal Size $500 million or less 3) See additional exclusionary criteria in Guidelines on LoanConnector. Traditional MM is deal size < $100.0MM 6 Middle Market Panel Discussion
7 Overall Trends Leverage tightens slightly while yields climb in 3Q11 Middle Market Risk/Return 5.00x 4.00x 3.00x 2.00x 1.00x 0.00x 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% Total leverage Yield (3-year) 7 Middle Market Panel Discussion
8 Pricing Section 2
9 All in yield (3-year) Pricing Yields continue to widen in September, exceeding 8.0% U.S. Middle Market Term Loan Yields bps bps bps bps bps bps 0.0 bps LIBOR (LIBOR floor beginning 2008) Spread OID 9 Middle Market Panel Discussion
10 Yield (3-year) Pricing Middle market and large corporate institutional yields converge in September U.S. Middle Market and Large Corporate Average Institutional Yields 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% Large Corp. Middle Market 10 Middle Market Panel Discussion
11 Senior Spread Pricing Institutional and pro rata yields rise in tandem in 3Q11 Middle Market Sponsored Pricing Pro Rata v. Institutional bps bps bps bps bps bps bps Pro Rata & All Other Institutional 11 Middle Market Panel Discussion
12 Sponsored Market Section 3
13 ($ in billions) Sponsored Market Sponsored volume recedes in 3Q11 with refinancings losing share Middle Market Loan Issuance Refi v. New Money $25.0 $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 Refinancings $3.1 billion to date in 3Q11 $8.3 billion in 2Q11 Up 34% from 1Q11 Up 93% from 2Q10 New money $7.1 billion to date in 3Q11 $11.5 billion in 2Q11 Up 9% from 1Q11 Up 34% from 2Q10 $0.0 New money Refinancing *Middle Market definition: 1) Borrower sales size $500 million or less 2) Deal Size $500 million or less 3) See additional exclusionary criteria in Guidelines on LoanConnector. Traditional MM is deal size < $100.0MM 13 Middle Market Panel Discussion
14 ($ in billions) Sponsored Market Sponsored volume recedes in 3Q11 with the large middle market losing share Middle Market Loan Issuance Large v. Traditional $25.0 $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 Large middle market: $8.2 billion to date in 3Q11 $16.0 billion in 2Q11 Up 14% from 1Q11 Up 67% from 2Q10 Traditional middle market: $2.1 billion to date in 3Q11 $3.8 billion in 2Q11 Up 38% from 1Q11 Up 16% from 2Q10 $0.0 Traditional Large *Middle Market definition: 1) Borrower sales size $500 million or less 2) Deal Size $500 million or less 3) See additional exclusionary criteria in Guidelines on LoanConnector. Traditional MM is deal size < $100.0MM 14 Middle Market Panel Discussion
15 Sponsored Market Average debt to EBITDA levels for middle market LBOs continue to loosen in 3Q11 Average Debt To EBITDA - Middle Market LBO Transactions 6.00x 5.00x 4.00x 3.00x 2.00x 1.00x 0.00x Senior Debt to EBITDA Total Debt to EBITDA 15 Middle Market Panel Discussion
16 Sponsored Market Leverage levels loosen for both middle market and broadly syndicated LBOs LBO Debt To EBITDA - BSL v. MM 8.00x 7.00x 6.00x 5.00x 4.00x 3.00x Middle Market Broadly Syndicated 16 Middle Market Panel Discussion
17 Sponsored Market Equity contributions continue to decline for both middle market and broadly syndicated LBOs LBO Equity Contribution - BSL v. MM 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% Middle Market Broadly Syndicated 17 Middle Market Panel Discussion
18 Non-Sponsored Market Section 4
19 ($ in billions) Non-Sponsored Market Non-sponsored volume slows in 3Q11 with new money transactions especially scarce Middle Market Loan Issuance Refi v. New Money $40.0 $30.0 $20.0 $10.0 Refinancings $13.5 billion to date in 3Q11 $22.0 billion in 2Q11 Up 38% from 1Q11 Up 18% from 2Q10 New money $4.3 billion to date in 3Q11 $9.6 billion in 2Q11 Up 106% from 1Q11 Up 73% from 2Q10 $0.0 Refinancings New Money *Middle Market definition: 1) Borrower sales size $500 million or less 2) Deal Size $500 million or less 3) See additional exclusionary criteria in Guidelines on LoanConnector. Traditional MM is deal size < $100.0MM 19 Middle Market Panel Discussion
20 ($ in billions) Non-Sponsored Market Non-sponsored volume slows across the board Middle Market Loan Issuance Large v. Traditional $40.0 $30.0 $20.0 $10.0 Large middle market: $13.5 billion to date in 3Q11 $25.0 billion in 2Q11 Up 57% from 1Q11 Up 36% from 2Q10 Traditional middle market: $4.3 billion to date in 3Q11 $6.7 billion in 2Q11 Up 40% from 1Q11 Up 13% from 2Q10 $0.0 Traditional Large *Middle Market definition: 1) Borrower sales size $500 million or less 2) Deal Size $500 million or less 3) See additional exclusionary criteria in Guidelines on LoanConnector. Traditional MM is deal size < $100.0MM 20 Middle Market Panel Discussion
21 LIBOR Spread Non-Sponsored Market Non-sponsored revolver spreads continue to decline for middle market deals Avg. Non-Sponsored Middle Market Pricing bps bps bps bps bps Large Traditional 21 Middle Market Panel Discussion
22 Non-Sponsored Market Non-sponsored large middle market issuers see decade-low borrowing costs as the index rate remains low Avg. All In Borrowing Cost 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% 3-month LIBOR Avg. LIBOR Spread Large MM 22 Middle Market Panel Discussion
23 Tenor (months) Non-Sponsored Market Non-sponsored average tenors increase to roughly 4.5 years for large middle market loans and to 4 years for traditional middle market Revolver* Tenor - Middle Market Non-Sponsored Large Traditional * Revolvers >= 1 year Middle Market definition: 1) Borrower sales size $500 million or less 2) Deal Size $500 million or less 3) See additional exclusionary criteria in Guidelines on LoanConnector. Traditional MM is deal size < $100.0MM 23 Middle Market Panel Discussion
24 Tenor (months) Non-Sponsored Market Investment grade average tenors and non-sponsored large middle market average tenors increase in step to 4.5 years Revolver* Tenor Non-Sponsored Large MM v. I-Grade Investment Grade Large Middle Market * Revolvers >= 1 year Middle Market definition: 1) Borrower sales size $500 million or less 2) Deal Size $500 million or less 3) See additional exclusionary criteria in Guidelines on LoanConnector. Traditional MM is deal size < $100.0MM 24 Middle Market Panel Discussion
25 Junior Capital Section 5
26 % of respondents Junior Capital What are acceptable equity contributions? Survey Minimum Expected LBO Equity Contributions 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q % 30-40% 40-50% Equity contribution requirements continue to come down. Almost 40% of respondents said 20-30% is acceptable compared to less than 20% of respondents in 2Q11 26 Middle Market Panel Discussion
27 ($ in billions) Junior Capital Second lien issuance reached $1.2 billion in 2Q11 but slowed in 3Q11 Middle Market Second Lien Issuance $4.0 $3.5 $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 Volume Pipeline 27 Middle Market Panel Discussion
28 ($ in billions) # of deals Junior Capital Middle market mezz volume rebounded strongly in 2010 but has slowed in 2011 Middle Market Mezzanine Invested Source: Maranon Capital $7.5 $ $4.5 $3.0 $1.5 $ BDC Mezzanine Total Mezzanine Private Mezzanine Number of Transactions * Prior to 2010, Maranon did not separately track mezzanine capital deployed by BDCs 28 Middle Market Panel Discussion
29 Other Topics Section 6
30 Other Topics Current issues in the middle market Rating agency issues Equity cures Where will new investment dollars come from? Traditional middle market investors versus opportunistic hot money Banks preference for credit quality versus yield Impact of hold levels Unitranche lenders as competition 30 Middle Market Panel Discussion
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