Trade and FDI in Services: Complements AND Substitutes! Carmen Fillat Castejón University of Zaragoza, Spain

Transcription

1 Trade and FDI in Services: Complements AND Substitutes! Carmen Fillat Castejón University of Zaragoza, Spain Joseph F. Francois University of Linz, Austria, and CEPR, London Julia Woerz The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Austria V.1 31/8/27 Abstract: This paper has tested is there exists a complementary or substitutive effect in the relationship between crossborder imports and FDI in the services sector, a question rarely analyzed in the literature about the services sector. We have estimated a static and dynamic model where FDI inward stocks depend on contemporaneous and lagged services imports, vice versa, and controlling for the usual gravity variables. We found robust contemporaneous and lagged complementarity from FDI to services imports which is corroborated by a long-run approach. We have not found a robust static effect from services imports to FDI inward stocks, nor also in the long-run. But an interesting result is the substitutive effect arising when the dynamic accumulation of FDI is taken into account. This might explain the absence of a long-run relationship although there exists in the opposite direction. In both cases such complementary and substitute effect are robust in average but they also depend on the specific group of countries considered. Keywords: FDI, imports, services, panel data, substitution and complementary effects. JEL: F1, F14, F21 1

2 Introduction The question whether trade and FDI act as complements or substitutes in delivering goods across borders is not a new one and has been studied extensively. For instance, Fontagné and Pajot (1999) provide a comprehensive overview of the rich pool of literature dealing with this subject. They point out that this relationship depends on the level of analysis: at the firm level one will expect them to be substitutes, while there are compelling reasons - based on New Trade Theory arguments - for a complementary relationship at the macro-level (Pfaffermayr 1996). Given these distinctions, which are extended in Egger and Pfaffermayr (25) to include further the magnitude of plant set-up costs compared to trade costs, the empirical findings up to date have remained inconclusive. Fontagné and Pajot (1999) have ascribed this to a confusion of effects at different levels of the economy (firm, industry and macro level) and to differences between vertical and horizontal FDI, two points that are both widely accepted in the literature (Zarotiadis and Mylonidis 25, Egger and Pfaffermayr (25), among others). Reading through the empirical literature suggests that the case for complementarity between trade and FDI is stronger, which is associated with vertical FDI and rather low trade costs. This is intuitively compelling given that the majority of FDI takes place between high developed countries, where vertical FDI is expected to play a greater role than between partners at different levels of economic development. However, both relationships are consistent with viewing trade and FDI as two equivalent modes for the international provision of goods. Thus, like in services trade, these two channels can be seen as two modes for trade. While this is not as explicitly recognized when talking about merchandise trade, the GATS explicitly lists even four different modes of delivering services across international borders, including as the most prominent means of international services provision cross-border trade (mode 1) and sales through local establishments, i.e. through FDI (mode 3). Mainly due to data limitations, the questions whether these different modes act as complements or substitutes in services trade has rarely been dealt with in the literature. Exceptions are Buch and Lipponer (24), Hejazi and Safarian (21) or Fontagné (1999), among others. Nevertheless, there are good reasons to question that the relationship between cross-border trade and FDI in services is the same as in merchandise trade. Banga (25) points out that while the determinants for FDI are generally found to be the same for goods producing firms 2

3 and for services delivering ones, the importance of these determinants differ strongly between the two sectors. Government regulations, policies, cultural distance and the tradability of services (influenced by technological progress as well as by economic policy and regulatory measures) are the prime factors influencing FDI in services. In contrast, market size, barriers to trade and cost differentials in production are the main determinants for FDI in goods. Thus, the question whether these two modes of international service delivery act as complements or substitutes is not only largely unanswered (most existing studies consider either total services or a particular sector like financial services in Buch and Lipponer, 24), it is further of great importance in the present GATS negotiations. Offering schedules are often reluctant to include mode 3 in the lists. However, when the two modes are acting complementary, this would act as a backlash on opening up to trade through mode 1 (cross-border trade). In deriving our theoretical basis for the empirical analysis of this relationship we depart from the idea of a composite delivery of a service involving different modes of provision. This paper is intended to fill this gap, using a newly constructed dataset that combines data for modes 1, 2 and 3 for 28 OECD countries over the period 1994 to 24, distinguishing between total services and seven individual service sectors. Our empirical estimations are based on a Melitz-Krugman-Ethier type model for demand in services, which incorporates elements of new trade theory. The next section describes the data set in more detail thereby revealing an important distinction between the long-run relationship and short-run interactions between cross-border trade and FDI in the service sector. Section 2 derives the theoretical model. Section 3 looks at the static and dynamic relationship between trade and FDI in services. This is corroborated in section 4 with the long-run approach analysis where the heterogeneity by geographic and integrated areas is considered, and the paper finishes with a preliminary section of conclusions. 1. Description of the Data Set and Further Motivation For the analysis we collected data from different sources (IMF, OCED, World Bank). Our data for service imports, covering basically modes 1 and 2, comes from published IMF 3

4 Balance of Payments Statistics, compiled according to BOP Manual 5. FDI stock data, as a proxy for mode 3 trade, is taken from OECD Source and classified by the OECD s own industry classification based on ISIC, revision 3. The time period covered ranges from The combination of the two datasets implies that the sample covers 28 OECD countries. 1 The data is mapped to individual service sectors according to the BOP classification. We left out sectors where the number of missing observations exceeded the observations that were actually reported. Thus, we focus on the following categories: total services, transport, travel, communication, construction, finance, insurance and other business services. We have approximately 2 observations per service category. All other data come from the World Development Indicators published by the World Bank (i.e. GDP, Value added, ppps), while distance is taken from CEPII s distance dataset and exchange rates are from the IMF International Financial Statistics. Trade in services has in general risen in the OECD over the past decade. Figure 1 displays the growth in import volume and FDI inward stocks for total services as well as by the three main sectors, transport, travel and the sum of the remaining five categories listed above. We shall call the latter group henceforth producer services. 2 It becomes evident from Figure 1 that this category is strongly responsible for the high growth of FDI in the service sector. The tremendous growth in service sector FDI is almost entirely driven by producer related services. Also it is the most important category for cross-border trade in services in the OECD. Growth through modes 1 and 2 has not been as impressive as through FDI, however, trade flows have doubled over the past decade in all three categories. [Figure 1 here] In this paper we focus on the interaction between the two modes of supply, namely across the border (including here also movement of consumers) and through foreign establishment. We 1 While cross-border trade at the sectoral level (BOP classification) is in principle available for 178 countries in the world, detailed and comparable FDI data by sectors is only available for the OECD members. Consequently our sample contains all OECD countries without Belgium and Luxembourg. 2 This refers to the sum of communication, construction, finance, insurance and other business services. Due to too many missing observations, this group does not reflect all categories usually labelled producer related services. Specifically we are missing out here: computer and information services and royalties and license fees. 4

5 would ideally measure mode 3 trade by the sales of foreign affiliates in the service sector. However, this type of statistic exists up to date only for very few countries. The U.S. is more or less the only country which publishes a comprehensive FATS statistic. Thus, we can only use FDI stocks in the country as a very rough proxy for service supply through foreign establishment. Implicitly we are therefore assuming that foreign affiliate sales are an invariant function of the value of foreign direct investment. Figure 2 plots FDI inward stocks against service imports for all 28 countries for each service sector separately. The left hand side graph shows the average import flows and FDI stocks in current US-Dollar over the period For all service sectors with the exception of construction services, we see a positive relationship. Thus, more inward FDI in a country is combined with more service imports in the same sector. This very preliminary look at the data thus reveals a contemporaneous complementarity between trade and FDI in services. 3 In sharp contrast to this long-run growth rates of both variables are often negatively correlated over the entire period Thus, in a dynamic perspective sectors with high FDI growth over the entire period experienced weaker growth in service imports. This hints towards a substitutive relationship between the two modes in the long-run. The two exceptions to this observation are communication and other business services. Figure 3 very impressively supports this preliminary finding for total services. Here we can see that the share of FDI has risen in total services trade: the ratio of FDI stocks in services to GDP has increased much stronger than the ratio of service imports to GDP (which has remained roughly constant). While in absolute terms, service imports and FDI inward stocks in services were roughly equal in 1994 (.84 million USD of service sector FDI stocks and.77 million USD of service imports), by 24 FDI stocks amounted to 3.3 million USD while service imports have just about doubled to 1.3 million USD for the OECD in total. [Figures 2 and 3] 3 For the period , the same positive relationship was observed for all services sectors, also for construction services. 5

6 2. Theoretical backing of the gravity approach for modelling FDI and trade in the service sector Conceptually, cross-border services trade and foreign affiliate sales may be substitutes or compliments. There are several reasons to expect that they are often gross compliments in production (i.e. joint inputs) though with some degree of substitution possible. For example, because services require interaction between provider and consumer (Hill 1977, Francois 199), it will usually be the case that cross-border trade in services requires some local value added to facilitate interaction between provider and consumer. In addition, from available balance of payments and trade data, we observe both trade and FDI across service sectors. If we are willing to assume that FDI in services is a legitimate measure of affiliate sales in the service sector, this means we observe both cross-border and affiliate sales. We start with a general representation of services S as a composite of cross-border inputs T and affiliate activities F. This may, for example, involve a banking product supported by headquarter activities but sold and serviced through a local office. Formally, we can represent total foreign sales of services as in equation (1), where σ=1/(1-ρ) is the Allen-elasticity of substitution. S = f( F,T)= Aa F F ( ( ) ρ + a T () T ρ ) 1ρ, ρ 1 (1) If sales through affiliates and trade (F and T) are prefect substitutes, then S = Aa ( F F + a T T), ρ = 1 (2) In more general terms, from the first order conditions for cost-minimization we will have the following: 6

7 F = SA 1 T = SA 1 a F P F a T P T σ σ P σ = SA 1+σ ( ) a F P F P σ = SA 1+σ ( ) a T P T σ σ a σ F P 1 σ F + a σ 1 σ ( T P T ) σ /(1 σ ) (3, 4) a σ F P 1 σ F + a σ 1 σ ( T P T ) σ /(1 σ ) P = A 1 a σ F P 1 σ F + a σ 1 σ ( T P T ) 1/(1 σ ) (5) From equations (3-5), it is straightforward to link demand for cross-border and local service sales as a function of changes in the price of cross-border and local affiliate inputs. dt dpf = ε + σ dt dpt = P ε +σ ( ) P ε +2σ 1 a F P F σ a T a T P T σ P T σ A σ 2 1 P F εa σ T P 1 σ T + σa σ 1 σ ( F P F )A σ 2 1 P T (6,7) A similar set of equations hold for F. In equations (6) and (7), ε< is the elasticity of demand for S. From equation (6), the impact of a drop in the price of providing local affiliate inputs on cross-border trade depends on the elasticity of substitution between F and T, and the underlying elasticity of demand for composite services S. If the elasticity of substitution is relatively low -- in particular if σ < ε -- then they actually serve as gross compliments. Alternatively, as long as σ > ε, they will serve as gross substitutes. We have seen dramatic increases in FDI flows in the service industries in the lat 1 years, along with moves to privatize and deregulate service sectors. Liberalization of service sector FDI means a reduction in the cost of the cost of running local affiliates. From equations (3,4) this implies a rising share of local affiliate relative to cross-border sales. Controlling for overall growth in demand, the theoretical impact on cross-border sales is ambiguous. From equations (6,7), it will depend on the elasticity of substitution relative to the elasticity of demand. We can summarize the implications of local service sector liberalization and related FDI liberalization as follows: 7

8 In the cross-section, net complimentarity of F and T means a relatively low technical degree of substitution Over time, increases in total service sales S imply rising both cross-border trade and FDI Controlling for shifts in demand, the impact of FDI growth driven by local market liberalization over time on cross-border trade is ambiguous Technical change has a similar set of implications. In our data, we will look at both trade-fdi interactions in the cross-section, and in a dynamic panel. In the cross-section, complimentarity will tell us we have a relatively low degree of substitution between crossborder and local sales of services. In the dynamic panel, we are interested in the relative evolution of cross-border and affiliate sales. 3. The Static and DynamicView: Complementarity versus Substitutability between FDI and Imports In this section we analyze the effect of FDI stock inflows on services cross-border trade and vice versa for the aggregate of total services, both from a static and a dynamic point of view. We estimate first a static panel data where we test their complementary or substitute effect between contemporaneous FDI and services imports and where the most usual gravity variables are controlled; also, we introduce the lagged right hand side (RHS) variable from which this effect arises in order to start introducing the possibility of capture this effect along time, just from one year to another. So the equation to be estimated are the following: log servm it = β 1 * log fdi it-1 + β 2 * log (GDPpc) it + β 3 * log (pop) it + β 4 * log(dist) it + ε it log fdi it = β 1 * log servm i t-1 + β 2 * log (GDPpc) it + β 3 * log (pop) it + β 4 * log(dist) it + ε it (8) where: 8

9 servm it are the total cross-border services imports for country i and year t fdi i t-1 are the total stock inflows in the services sector in country i and year t-1, one year lagged but alternatively the contemporaneous FDI effect is tested; the same is tested in the fdi stocks equation, where both contemporaneous and lagged services imports effects are tested. GDPpc is the per capita GDP for country i and year t, measured in current PPP US dollars pop is the population of the host country dist is the GDP weighted average distance of the host country in order to capture the global distance to the rest of countries in the sample ε is the error term, with an unobservable country-specific component and the remainder disturbance. We estimate the within or fixed effects model where the country-specific effect and all the regressors are assumed to be independent of the disturbance. The biased of omitting variables is controlled in this estimation. Data sources are described in section 1 and in the data panel we have a sample of 24 countries and 1 years, although there are some missing values in this sample. The two first columns in Table 1 show the estimations for services imports, where 1a corresponds to the static and contemporaneous estimation of fdi effect on services imports, and column 1b considers the one period lagged effect. Both of them yield a positive significant effect of per capita GDP and negative from weighted distance, as expected, and a complementary effect arising from both contemporaneous and lagged FDI inflows. Anyway, we might expect FDI is not completely exogenous and is predetermined; in this case the accurate way of estimating this effect also with fixed effects, is the Arellano and Bond(1991) GMM instrumental estimation, which considers the past information about FDI 4. Columns 2a and 2b in Table 1 present this estimation and also in this case the complementary effect is confirmed, and it is higher than in the within estimation, probably indicating that it is convenient to take into account the previous years information about FDI stock inflows in order to capture the complete effect on services imports. [Tables 1 and 2 here] 4 All possible lags are taken in order to predict the value of FDI. Several lag structures have been considered and the result is robust. As a rule of thumb, it is suggested to maintain the number of instruments below the number of groups in order to avoid the overestimation of the Sargan test. 9

10 Table 2 presents the static estimation for FDI equation, also in the two first columns 1a and 1b. In this case there is no evidence of any effect of FDI on import services, nor contemporaneous or previous. Also we might expect that FDI is not exogenous, moreover because we have a really high adjusted R 2 which can indicates the autocorrelation possibility. So, again we test the instrumental consistent estimation by using GMM, and only when the past information about contemporaneous services imports is considered we can check there is some complementary effect on FDI 5. So, although there seems to be a clear complementary effect of FDI on services imports, this effect is not robust in the opposite case, that is an increase in services imports does not necessary imply an increase on FDI stock inflows, from the static point of view. As we said, both FDI and services imports can be predetermined and exhibit some dynamics, as the extensive literature about FDI determinants underlines agglomeration, and here the past information about imports services seems to be relevant. So that we estimate now a dynamic model for both equations, which now turn to be as follows: log servm it = α* log servm i t-1 + β 1 * log fdi it-1 + β 2 * log (GDPpc) it + β 3 * log(pop) it + β 4 * log(dist) it + ε it log fdi it = α* log fdi it-1 + β 1 * log servm i t-1 + β 2 * log (GDPpc) it + β 3 * log(pop) it + β 4 * log(dist) it + ε it (9) Columns 3a and 3b in Table 2 show the estimation for services imports equation. Arellano and Bond GMM method is the accurate method of estimation for dynamic panels, where the variables are taken in differences in order to get rid of the fixed effects and so eliminate the possible correlation between them and the error term; as instruments, all the possible lagged endogenous variable are taken 6. Also here the effect of FDI is considered as predetermined, with all possible past information taken into account. In these cases, we confirm a dynamic process in services imports, which seems to be more important when the contemporaneous 5 Again, all possible lags have been taken, which means in this case about five years lagged. Several possibilities for this have been considered, with the same conclusion. 6 Several sets of lags are used as instruments with the same result than the one presented. Because of the sensitivity of estimation to the instruments considered the coefficients vary a little but not their statistical significance. 1

11 effect of FDI is considered, with a very high dynamic coefficient of.77. In any case, we find again a complementary effect of FDI on imports. But the high dynamic coefficient might be indicating the possibility of persistency in this estimation, in which case the autorregresive process dominates the model and regressors would turn to be almost independent of the endogenous variable; in this case, the instruments are weak and the coefficients biased. Blundell and Bond (1998) show that in this case, and especially when the sample is small, it is possible to improve the efficiency and precision of dynamic estimations when a system of differenced and levels equations is estimated, by using lagged and differenced variables as instruments respectively. For this reason, we have tested the hypothesis of persistency, where the alpha dynamic coefficient equals one, and we find that this cannot be rejected when contemporaneous FDI is used. To control the possible bias for small samples and persistent processes we have also performed the SYSTEM-GMM Blundell and Bond estimation, which results are shown in columns 4a and 4b. Here again, the dynamic process is very relevant and significant, and with this more precise estimation we cannot reject the hypothesis of persistency. Although we loose most of the gravity variables, we still can check the robustness of a complementary effect of FDI on imports services, with a.23 elasticity for contemporaneous FDI and one of.9 for lagged FDI. If we turn to FDI equation and the effects coming from imports services (Table 2), we also see a significant dynamic process, but where the dynamic coefficient is not so high than the one for imports equation. The possibility of persistence in this process is tested, and it can not be rejected when the effect from lagged services imports is considered 7. In order to avoid the possible inefficiency and bias coming from this persistency we perform the SYSTEM-GMM estimation, confirming the dominance of the dynamic process, although never so important in the FDI process as it is in the imports one. And what is more relevant for our inquiries here is that, when contemporaneous services imports are considered, the persistency could be rejected and a complementary effect of imports on FDI is found. But this disappears, an so all the gravity variables, when the SYSTEM-GMM estimation is performed. But when the lagged import services effect is considered, we cannot reject persistency and a SYSTEM-GMM estimation is recommended. In this case, the dynamic process turns to have a more precise 7 In this case, this lagged effect is not significant. So, apparently, the dynamic process dominates. 11

12 coefficient of.83, lower than unit, all the gravity variables are significant and with the expected sign and, on the top of this, a significant substitutive effect of lagged services imports on FDI inflows is found. So, by considering the dynamic process of agglomeration in FDI inflows where FDI seems to follow market pull factors as agglomeration, market size and distance, we find a negative effect from recent past services imports, which could be indicating that the tradability of services reduces the probability of providing them by investing in the market country (Banga, 25). In this case, liberalizing services could difficult of deepening the channel through FDI, which follows market incentives but the final FDI stock inflow would be lower if imports are promoted. To sum up, there is a robust complementary effect from contemporaneous or recently past FDI stock inlows on services cross-border imports, which is according to the literature for manufactures and some specific services like financial ones in some case studies, and here it is found both in a static and a dynamic analysis. But the complementary effect of cross-border imports on FDI in services is not found in the static analysis, and furthermore, it is found a substitution effect coming from recent past imports when the dynamic process of FDI growth is considered. 5. The long-run approach and the geographic heterogeneity This finding of robust dynamic processes and of the complementary effect from FDI to imports, but a substitution one from imports to FDI, we think it might be relevant to test the existence of a long-run relationship between FDI and imports where they keep being complements or substitutes. For a period of 1 years we can adopt the approach by Pesaran and Smith (1995) and Pesaran et al. (1999) which estimates the long-run coefficients of interest. We use a simple heterogeneous partial adjustment panel model as: log (Y it ) = α i + β i log(x it ) + λ i log(y it-1 ) + u it u it ~IN(,σi 2 ) (1) where i=1 N is the group of countries over t=1 1 years, X it denotes the variable from which we want to test the complementary of substitutive effect. The associated long-run 12

13 coefficients can be derived as θ i =β i /(1-λ i ). The country-specific intercept picks up all omitted factors that vary across countries. A convenient reparameterisation of (1) is: Δlog (Y it ) = α i - (1-λ i )[log(y it-1 ) - β i /(1-λ i ) * log(x it ) ] + u it (11) = α i - (γ i )[log(y it-1 ) - θ i log(x it ) ] + u it (12) this This non-linear equation allows estimate the long-run parameters of interest θ and γ. If the individuals are homogeneous the estimators are consistent, but they are not if there is heterogeneity in the sample, even if the time dimension would be high. There are serveral options for avoiding this heterogeneity bias, usually consisting in estimating each country effect separately and then compute the Mean Group estimator (Pesaran and Smith, 1995), just averaging the individual effects. Because this method is not particularly efficient, Pesaran et al. (1999) suggest the Pooled Mean Group estimator, which allows the intercepts, the short-run coefficients and the error variances to vary across panel groups, but imposes common long-run coefficients 8. So equation (5) becomes: Δlog (Y it ) = α i - (γ i )[log(y it-1 ) - θ log(x it ) ] + u it (13) Equation (13) is estimated in Table 3, first by pooling both long-run parameters and assuming country-specific effects. But because there is not any reason for believing there is homogeneity, we have estimated two alternative models: on one hand the mean group for the dynamic parameter (γi) and the pooled mean group for the long-run parameter (θ); on the other hand, the pooled mean group for the dynamic parameter (γ) and the mean group for the longrun parameter (θi) 9. 8 Pesaran et al. (1999) also argue that short-time coefficients are more likely to vary across countries than the long-run parameters. 9 This two alternatives yield almost identical estimators, so that we don not estimate all the individual effects for all the parameters to avoid loosing degrees of freedom. This is also the reason for not including here the gravity controls as we did in the previous section. Anyway both estimations are being compared excluding these controls. 13

14 Table 3 shows how the long-run effect of import services in FDI inflows is never significant, so we can keep in mind the dynamic but short-run estimation of this substitution effect we found in the previous section. But we find a positive long-run effect of FDI inflows on import services, again indicating a complementary effect like the one found for the short-run static and dynamic estimation. The dynamic parameter (γi) is identical both in the pooled, pooled mean long-run effect or mean long-run effect (θ), with the small value of But the longrun effect of FDI on services is quite different is we assume an homogeneous or heterogeneous sample. So that, we can estimate the dynamic parameter with the mean group or the pooled mean group because it yields the same value here and then estimate the mean group parameter (θ) in order to compare. Both estimations yield again an identical long-run parameter, with a value of 9.27, and its correspondent short-run value equal to.68 in average. This mean is computed from the estimates for the different integrated areas in the sample: the European Union (EU), NAFTA, Australia and New Zealand (AUNZ) and the rest of countries in the sample (OTHER), where only NAFTA and OTHER show a significant complementary effect, with a long(short)-run parameter of 4.95(.4) and 1.62(.1) respectively. [Table 4 here] It might be interesting to estimate the different short-run parameters for the different integrated areas by using the dynamic panel data approach. This is shown in Table 4. In the first column the dynamic and trade effect are controlled by the gravity variables like in the previous estimations. We can confirm the significance of these effects and again a complementary effect from recent past FDI on services imports for EU, NAFTA and OTHER, but not for AUNZ, where it is insignificant. Also we can confirm a dynamic effect for FDI and a substitutive effect arising from recent past services imports for the same areas: EU, NAFTA and OTHER. Just for better comparison with the long-run approach, we estimate the same dynamic panel but excluding the gravity controls, and then we see the coefficients are not very different to the short-run ones computed from the Pesaran approach. FDI keeps the short substitution effect for EU and OTHER. And services imports maintain the complementary effect from FDI for EU, NAFTA and OTHER, with coefficients of.6,.6 and.1 respectively, and that are quite 14

15 similar to the short-run ones estimated in the Pesaran approach:.2,.4 and.1, respectively. This evidence suggests that, although more research has to be done, it seems to be a robust complementary effect from FDI towards services imports in the short and long-run, and also a substitutive effect from recent past services imports towards FDI in the short-run with no evidence in the long run, all of them heterogeneous depending on the EU, NAFTA, AUNZ or OTHER areas in the OECD countries are considered. Conclusions This paper has tested is there exists a complementary or substitutive effect in the relationship between cross-border imports and FDI in the services sector, a question often studied for manufactures but rarely analyzed for services in the literature. For the sample of OECD countries, we have estimated a static and dynamic model where FDI inward stocks depend on contemporaneous and lagged services imports, vice versa, and controlling for the usual gravity variables. We found robust contemporaneous and lagged complementarity from FDI to services imports, a result very usual in the literature on manufactures and also in some country studies on services trade. This result is corroborated by a long-run approach, where a robust dynamic and long-run complementary effect is again found but heterogeneous dependent on specific groups of countries in the sample, with associated short-run parameters which are similar to the dynamic panel estimations. We have not found a robust static effect from services imports to FDI inward stocks, nor also in the long-run. But an interesting result is the substitutive effect arising when the dynamic accumulation of FDI is taken into account. This might explain the absence of a long-run relationship although there exists in the opposite direction. 15

16 References Arellano, M. and SR Bond (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies 58, Bagchi-Sen, S FDI in US Producer Services: A Temporal Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment in the Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Sectors, Regional Studies, Vol. 29, pp Banga, R. (25), Foreign Direct Investment in Services: Implications for Developing Countries ; Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Review 1(2), Blundell, R. and SR Bond (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics 87, Buch, C. and A. Lipponer (24), FDI versus cross-border financial services: The globalisation of German banks, Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper series 1 5/ 24. Egger, P. and M. Pfaffermayr (25). Trade, Multinational Sales, and FDI in a Three-factor Model. Review of International Economics, 13(4), Fontagné, L. (1999). Foreign Direct Investment and International Trade: Complements or Substitutes?. STI Working Papers 1999/3. Fontagné, L. and M. Pajot (1999). Investissement direct à l etranger et échanges extérieurs : un impact plus fort aux Etats-Unis qu en France. Economie et Statistique, ( ) : Hejazi, W. and A.E. Safarian (21), The complementarity between U.S. foreign direct investment stock and trade. Atlantic Economic Journal 29 (4), Hill, T.P. 1977: On goods and services, The Review of Income and Wealth, 23, Francois, J.F 199: Trade in Nontradables: Proximity Requirements and the Pattern of Trade in Services, Journal of Economic Integration. Pain, N and D van Welsum (24). International Production Relocation and Exports of Services. OECD Economic Studies nº 38, 24/1. Pesaran, MH and RP Smith (1995). Estimating Long-Run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68, Pesaran, MH, Y SHIN and RP Smith (1999). Pooled Mean Group Estimator of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94,

17 Pfaffermayr, M. (1996). Foreign Outward Direct Investment and Exports in Austrian Manufacturing: Substitutes or Complements? Weltwirtschaftliches-Archiv. 132(3): Windmeijer (25). A Finite Sample Correction for the Variance of Linear Two-Step GMM Estimators. Journal of Econometrics 126(1), Zarotiadis, G. and N. Mylonidis (25), FDI and Trade in the UK: Substitutes or Complements?, ETSG Conference, Dublin. 17

18 Figure 1. Growth rates of imports (left) and FDI (right) in the services sector Mio USD OECD total transport travel producer total transport travel producer EU Mio USD total transport travel producer total transport travel producer

19 Figure 1. Growth rates of imports (left) and FDI (right) in the services sector (cont.1) Mio USD EFTA total transport travel producer NAFTA total transport travel producer Mio USD total transport travel producer total transport travel producer

20 Figure 1. Growth rates of imports (left) and FDI (right) in the services sector (cont.2) AU-NZ Mio USD total transport travel producer total transport travel producer JPN-KOR-TUR Mio USD total transport travel producer total transport travel producer

21 Figure 1. Growth rates of imports (left) and FDI (right) in the services sector (y cont.3) Mio USD NMS total transport travel producer total transport travel producer

22 Figure 2: Trade flows and growth in trade flows by sectors (21-24) 14 trade flow s 1-4, total 12 trade flow s 1-4, transport y =,7132x + 2, y =,5839x + 5, trade flow s 1-4, travel y =,5915x + 5,523 9 trade flow s 1-4, communication y =,6938x +, trade flow s 1-4, construction 1 trade flow s 1-4, finance 8 9 y =,732x -, y = -,548x + 5,

23 12 trade flow s 1-4, insurance 14 trade flow s 1-4, other business services 1 y =,7562x +, y =,5695x + 5, ,25 log-run grow th, total,2,15,1 y = -,397x +,642,5,1,2,3,4 Note: Data are in logs, long run growth is calculated as the trend over

24 Figure 3. Share of FDI and imports in total services trade Imports FDI 35 Mio 3 USD ,8 FDI Imports,7,6,5 per cent,4,3,2,

25 Table 1: Static and Dynamic Estimation of the Services Imports Equation SERVICES M 1a 1b 2a 2b 3a 3b 4a 4b dep.var. static static static static dynamic dynamic dynamic Dynamic within within predetermined predetermined diff-gmm diff-gmm sys-gmm sys.gmm log servm(-1) log fdi log(gdppc) log(pop) log(dist) log fdi(-1) country dummies yes yes Sargan p-value ar1p-value ar2p-value obs n.groups instruments adjr Wald test dynamic = 1 NOTE: t-statistics in italics. All possible lags as instruments and 5 for sys-gmm. Bold means significant. Two-step dynamic estimation is shown, with the Windmeijer (25) correction for heteroskedastic disturbances.

26 Table 2: Static and Dynamic Estimation of the FDI Equation FDI dep.var. 1a 1b 2a 2b 3a 3b 4a 4b static static static static dynamic dynamic dynamic Dynamic within within predetermined predetermined diff-gmm diff-gmm sys-gmm sys.gmm log fdi(-1) log servm log(gdppc) log(pop) log(dist) log servm(-1) country dummies yes yes Sargan p-value ar1p-value ar2p-value obs n.groups instruments adjr Wald test dynamic = 1 NOTE: t-statistics in italics. 1 lags as instruments. Bold means significant. Two-step dynamic estimation is shown, with the Windmeijer (25) correction for heteroskedastic disturbances.

27 Table 3: long-run FDI-services imports relationship long-run parameters (θ) FDI Services imports pooled Pooled Mean group pooled Pooled Mean group Long-run/ Mean group dynamic Long-run/ Mean group dynamic θ γ θ γi θi γ θ γ θ γi θi γ log FDI log FDI-EU log FDI-NAFTA log FDI-AUNZ log FDI-OTHER log ServM log servm-eu logservm-nafta log servm-aunz logservm-other dynamic parameters equilibrium correction parameter (γ) γ-eu γ-nafta γ-aunz γ-other adjr Obs NOTE: t-statistics in italics. All variables with 1 lag. Bold means significant.

28 Table 4: Short run FDI-services imports relationship by area SERVICES IMPORTS FDI SYS-GMM SYS-GMM SYS-GMM SYS-GMM log servm(-1) log fdi(-1) log fdi(-1) EU log servm(-1) EU log fdi(-1) NAFTA log servm(-1) NAFTA log fdi(-1) AUNZ log servm(-1) AUNZ log fdi(-1) OTHER log servm(-1) OTHER log(gdppc).255 log(gdppc) log(pop) log(pop) log(dist) log(dist) Sargan p- value sarganp ar1p-value ar1p.4.4 ar2p-value.18.9 ar2p obs N n.groups N_g instruments instruments Wald test.69.7 Wald test.28.1 dynamic = 1 dynamic = 1 NOTE: t-statistics in italics. Bold means significant.