CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research

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1 RESEARCH CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research KRBL Ltd Q3FY15 Results Update Enhancing investment decisions

2 CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental grade is assigned on a fivepoint scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The valuation grade is assigned on a fivepoint scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP). CRISIL Fundamental Grade Assessment CRISIL Valuation Grade Assessment 5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP) 4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (125% from CMP) 3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+1 from CMP) 2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (negative 125% from CMP) 1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<25% from CMP) About CRISIL Limited CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services. We are India s leading ratings agency. We are also the foremost provider of highend research to the world s largest banks and leading corporations. About CRISIL Research CRISIL Research is India's largest independent integrated research house. We provide insights, opinion and analysis on the Indian economy, industry, capital markets and companies. We also conduct training programs to financial sector professionals on a wide array of technical issues. We are India's most credible provider of economy and industry research. Our industry research covers 86 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our analysis is supported by inputs from our network of more than 5, primary sources, including industry experts, industry associations and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income markets. We are the largest provider of valuation of fixed income securities to the mutual fund, insurance and banking industries in the country. We are also the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries. We pioneered independent equity research in India, and are today the country's largest independent equity research house. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and data into expert judgements and forecasts with complete objectivity. We leverage our deep understanding of the macroeconomy and our extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micromacro and crosssectoral linkages. Our talent pool comprises economists, sector experts, company analysts and information management specialists. CRISIL Privacy CRISIL respects your privacy. We use your contact information, such as your name, address, and id, to fulfil your request and service your account and to provide you with additional information from CRISIL and other parts of McGraw Hill Financial you may find of interest. For further information, or to let us know your preferences with respect to receiving marketing materials, please visit You can view McGraw Hill Financial s Customer Privacy Policy at Last updated: August, 214 Analyst Disclosure Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest that can bias the grading recommendation of the company. Disclaimer: This Company commissioned CRISIL IER report is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable. CRISIL Ltd. (CRISIL) does not represent that it is accurate or complete and hence, it should not be relied upon as such. The data / report is subject to change without any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The subscriber / user assume the entire risk of any use made of this data / report. CRISIL especially states that, it has no financial liability whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this report. This report is for the personal information only of the authorised recipient in India only. This report should not be reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person especially outside India or published or copied in whole or in part, for any purpose. As per CRISIL s records, none of the analysts involved has any ownership / directorship in the company. However CRISIL or its associates may have commercial transactions with the company.

3 KRBL Ltd Revenue Earnings exceeded expectations RESEARCH Fundamental Grade Valuation Grade Industry 3/5 (Good fundamentals) 4/5 (CMP has upside) Food Products February 2, 215 Fair Value 165 CMP 138 KRBL Ltd s Q3FY15 consolidated revenues were below but earnings exceeded CRISIL Research s expectations due to higherthanexpected margin and lowerthanexpected tax outgo. Revenues grew 8.9% yoy and 9.4% qoq to 7.6 bn. Although EBITDA margin expanded by 199 bps yoy to 17.4%, it contracted 169 bps qoq due to higher promotion expenses and contribution from lowmargin broken rice. Adjusted PAT increased 38% yoy (flat qoq) to 858 mn, above our expectations. Though, the current fall in paddy prices is expected to impact realisations in the near term, the company is expected to stock up inventory. We expect lowcost inventory to be ready to be sold as finished rice by H2FY16, which should aid operating margins. We maintain our fundamental grade of 3/5. Realisations drove export revenues while volumes drove domestic rice revenues The rice business revenues grew 21.3% yoy driven by ~1 yoy increase each in volumes and realisations. Export revenues increased 23.5% yoy driven by 3 growth in realisations; exports contribution to revenues increased marginally yoy to 41%. Domestic revenues increased 2 yoy driven primarily by volume growth of 17%; realisation growth was low at 3%. Since paddy prices have been down in the current season ( 253/kg) and KRBL sells most of its rice after one year of ageing, we expect realisations to stay muted and drop further beginning H2FY16. However, historically, a dip in prices has increased demand. Hence, any revenue loss due to lower prices is likely to be partially offset by an increase in volumes. EBITDA margin impacted by higher promotional expenses sequentially EBITDA margin contracted by 169 bps qoq (up 199 bps yoy) to 17.4% owing to higher promotional expenses (higher discounts to dealers) and higher contribution from broken rice. Raw material cost to sales ratio increased by 168 bps qoq (down 314 bps yoy). While realisation growth may remain tepid in the near term, the company plans to stock up inventory for ~18 months an alltime high. After ageing, lowcost inventory is likely to be ready to be sold as finished rice by H2FY16, which should boost operating margins; it is a monitorable. FY1516 estimates revised; fair value increased to 165 per share Factoring in higherthanexpected margin and lowerthanexpected tax outgo, we have raised our FY15 EPS estimate to 13.5 from We have reduced our FY16 EPS estimate from 14.7 to 14.5 to factor in the impact of expected subdued realisation on revenue growth. We continue to value KRBL based on a P/E multiple of 1x and increase our fair value to 165 per share on account of roll forward. At the current market price, our valuation grade is 4/5. KEY FORECAST (CONSOLIDATED) ( mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Operating income 2,741 29,53 31,452 36,85 4,738 EBITDA 2,943 4,415 5,395 5,773 6,74 Adj net income 1,3 2,55 3,19 3,416 3,896 Adj EPS ( ) EPS growth (%) Dividend yield (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%) PE (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price estimates CFV MATRIX KEY STOCK STATISTICS NIFTY/SENSEX 8,833/29,231 NSE/BSE ticker KRBL Face value ( per share) 1 Shares outstanding (mn) 236 Market cap ( mn)/(us$ mn) 32,568/524 Enterprise value ( mn)/(us$ mn) 45,692/734 52week range ( )/(H/L) 14/42 Beta.5 Free float (%) 41.4% Avg daily volumes (3days) 333,143 Avg daily value (3days) ( mn) 41 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN Excellent Fundamentals Fundamental Grade PERFORMANCE VISÀVIS MARKET Returns 1m 3m 6m 12m KRBL 18% 39% 62% 214% CNX 5 2% 6% 14% 53% ANALYTICAL CONTACT Poor Fundamentals Strong Downside Valuation Grade Strong Upside %.2%.2%.2% 3.4% 4.3% 5.3% 5.4% 58.7% 58.7% 58.7% 58.7% Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Promoter FII DII Others Bhaskar Bukrediwala bhaskar.bukrediwala@crisil.com Mohit Pandey mohit.pandey@crisil.com Sayan Das Sharma sayan.sharma@crisil.com Client servicing desk clientservicing@crisil.com For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters. 1

4 CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research Q3FY15 Results Summary (Consolidated) ( mn) Q3FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY14 qoq (%) yoy (%) 9MFY15 9MFY14 yoy (%) Net sales 7,66 7, 7, ,739 2, Raw materials cost 5,679 5,72 5, ,87 15, Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 74% 72% 77% 168 bps (314) bps 74% 77% (281) bps Other expenses ,479 1, Employee cost EBITDA 1,332 1,336 1,84 (.2) ,2 3, EBITDA margin 17.4% 19.1% 15.4% (169) bps 199 bps 17.6% 15.8% 177 bps Depreciation (4.1) (19.5) (2.5) EBIT 1,29 1, ,589 2, Interest and finance charges (1.1) (18.8) Operating PBT 1,52 1, ,982 2, Other income (58.6) (53.9) Extraordinary income/(expense) (33) (52) 89 NM NM (14) (1) NM PBT 1,33 1, ,925 2, Tax PAT ,36 1, Adj PAT ,465 1, Adj PAT margin 11.2% 12.3% 8.8% (15) bps 237 bps 1.8% 9.6% 127 bps No. of equity shares (mn) Adj EPS ( ) Domestic revenues increased 2 yoy......primarily driven by volumes ( mn) 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 18% 2,141 59% 48% 89% 93% 3,11 3,38 2,991 4,14 23% 36% 27% 3,76 4,142 3,784 3% 4,25 2 4, (MT) 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 35 6, , , , Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sept14 Dec14 87, , ,538 67,846 ( ') ,849 86,436 1 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sept14 Dec14 Revenue yoy growth (RHS) Volume Realisation per MT (RHS) 2

5 KRBL Ltd RESEARCH Export revenues grew 23% yoy driven by higher realisations ( mn) (MT) ( ') 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 61% 24% 23% 49% 2,894 1,62 1,238 3,434 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 187% 133% 27% ,476 3,558 Dec13 Mar14 7% 23% 23% 3,672 2,599 3,57 Jun14 Sept14 Dec , 4, 3, 2, 1, 63 Sep12 46, Dec12 14, Mar13 15, Jun13 49, ,848 3,56 Dec ,817 Mar ,51 Jun ,896 Sept14 15 Dec14 29, Revenue yoy growth (RHS) Volume (MT) Realisation per MT (RHS) Share of exports remained flat yoy Blended realisation grew 1 yoy % 57% Sep12 74% 71% 26% 29% Dec12 Mar13 47% 53% Jun13 66% 6 54% 51% 61% 59% 34% 4 46% 49% 39% 41% Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sept14 Dec14 ( /MT) 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 12% Sep12 47,112 4% Dec12 4,148 2% 12% 15% 43,718 53,241 54,391 Mar13 Jun13 47% Dec13 59,162 58% Mar14 69, % 1 63,784 61,479 64,976 Jun14 Sept14 Dec Export Domestic Blended Realisation yoy growth (RHS) EBITDA margin declined sequentially......so did adjusted PAT margin ( mn) 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 13% 14% 11% 5,715 5, 4,928 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 16% 16% 15% 6,888 6,585 7,36 Jun13 Dec13 13% Mar14 8,596 17% Jun14 8,79 19% Sept14 7, 17% Dec14 7, % 12% 8% 4% ( mn) % Sep % Dec % Mar Jun13 9% Dec % Mar % Jun % Sept % Dec % 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Revenue EBITDA Margin (RHS) Adj. PAT Adj. PAT Margin (RHS) Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research 3

6 CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation ( ) (') 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Jan1 May1 Oct1 Feb11 Jun11 Nov11 Mar12 Jul12 Dec12 Apr13 Sep13 Jan14 May14 Oct14 Feb15 Jan1 Jun1 Dec1 May11 Nov11 Apr12 Oct12 Mar13 Sep13 Feb14 Aug14 Feb15 Indexed to 1 KRBL CNX 5 Total Traded Quantity(RHS) CRISIL Fair Value KRBL Earnings Estimates Revised FY15E FY16E FY17E Particulars Unit Old New % change Old New % change Introduced Revenues ( mn) 33,266 31, % 39,291 36,85 8.2% 4,738 EBITDA ( mn) 5,37 5, % 5,897 5, % 6,74 EBITDA margin % % 115 bps bps 16.5% PAT ( mn) 2,911 3,19 9.6% 3,472 3, % 3,896 PAT margin % 8.7% 1.1% 144 bps 8.8% 9.5% 63 bps 9.6% EPS % 16.5 Source: CRISIL Research estimates Reasons for changes in estimates Line item FY15E FY16E Revenues Lowered as we expect realisation growth to be muted owing to sharp decline in paddy prices EBITDA margins Raised to factor in a) higherthanexpected margins in 9MFY15 and b) lowerthanexpected contribution from the lowmargin trading business We expect the lowcost paddy (prices have declined ~25% in recent months) procured in FY15 to be ready as finished rice by H2FY16. This is likely to aid operating margin expansion PAT margins Raised in line with revision in margin estimate and lowerthanexpected tax outgo Reduced due to lowered top line, although its impact has partially been offset by upward revision in operating margins 4

7 KRBL Ltd RESEARCH Valuation Grade: 4/5 We have rolled forward our projections to FY17. Based on a P/E multiple of 1x applied to FY17 EPS estimate of 16.5, we have revised our fair value to 165 per share from 147. At the current market price of 138, the valuation grade is 4/5. Oneyear forward P/E band ( ) Mar7 Sep7 Mar8 Sep8 Mar9 Sep9 Mar1 Sep1 Mar11 Sep11 Mar12 Aug12 Feb13 Aug13 Feb14 Aug14 Feb15 KRBL 2x 4x 6x 8x 1x Source: NSE, CRISIL Research P/E premium / discount to CNX 5 Oneyear forward EV/EBITDA band ( mn) 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Mar7 Sep7 Mar8 Sep8 Mar9 Sep9 Mar1 Sep1 Mar11 Sep11 Mar12 Aug12 Feb13 Aug13 Feb14 Aug14 Feb15 EV 4x 5x 6x 7x Source: NSE, CRISIL Research P/E movement Mar7 Sep7 Mar8 Sep8 Mar9 Sep9 Mar1 Sep1 Mar11 Sep11 Mar12 Aug12 Feb13 Aug13 Feb14 Aug14 Feb15 (Times) Mar7 Sep7 Mar8 Sep8 Mar9 Sep9 Mar1 Sep1 1 std dev Mar11 Sep11 Mar12 Aug12 +1 std dev Feb13 Aug13 Feb14 Aug14 Feb15 Premium/Discount to CNX 5 Median premium/discount to CNX 5 1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research 5

8 CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research CRISIL IER reports released on KRBL Ltd Fundamental Valuation CMP Date Nature of report grade Fair value grade (on the date of report) 11Jan1 Initiating coverage 3/5 34# 5/5 22# 1Feb1 Q3FY1 result update 3/5 34# 5/5 19# 2Jun1 Q4FY1 result update 3/5 34 5/ Aug1 Q1FY11 result update 3/5 32 5/ Nov1 Q2FY11 result update 3/5 45 4/ Feb11 Q3FY11 result update 3/5 39 5/5 24 2Apr11 Detailed Report 3/5 39 4/5 32 1Jun11 Q4FY11 result update 3/5 39 5/ Aug11 Q1FY12 result update 3/5 36 5/ Nov11 Q2FY12 result update 3/5 31 5/ Feb12 Q3FY12 result update 3/5 31 5/5 2 17Apr12 Detailed Report 3/5 31 5/5 2 12Jun12 Q4FY12 result update 3/5 31 5/ Aug12 Q1FY13 result update 3/5 31 5/ Nov12 Q2FY13 result update 3/5 33 5/ Mar13 Q3FY13 result update 3/5 35 5/ June13 Q4FY13 result update 3/5 35 5/ Sep13 Q1FY14 result update 3/5 35 5/5 24 3Jan14 Detailed Report 3/5 48 5/ Jan14 Q3FY14 result update 3/5 48 4/ May14 Q4FY14 result update 3/5 64 3/ Sep14 Detailed Report 3/ /5 1 28Oct14 Q2FY15 result update 3/ /5 98 2Feb15 Q3FY15 result update 3/ /5 138 #After adjusting for stock split of 1 to 1 6

9 KRBL Ltd RESEARCH Annexure: Financials Income statement Balance Sheet ( mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E ( mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Operating income 2,741 29,53 31,452 36,85 4,738 Liabilities EBITDA 2,943 4,415 5,395 5,773 6,74 Equity share capital EBITDA margin 14.2% 15.2% 17.2% % Reserves 8,52 1,24 13,16 16,35 19,474 Depreciation Minorities EBIT 2,437 3,838 4,724 5,5 5,833 Networth 8,34 1,449 13,26 16,279 19,718 Interest Convertible debt Operating PBT 1,743 3,78 3,846 4,256 5,61 Other debt 8,73 13,795 9,445 1,545 1,45 Other income Total debt 8,73 13,795 9,445 1,545 1,45 Exceptional inc/(exp) (1) 46 Deferred tax liability (net) PBT 1,841 3,26 3,987 4,437 5,265 Total liabilities 17,167 24,42 22,864 26,983 29,922 Tax provision ,2 1,369 Assets Minority interest Net fixed assets 4,412 5,613 6,442 7,174 7,41 PAT (Reported) 1,299 2,551 3,19 3,416 3,896 Capital WIP Less: Exceptionals (1) 46 Total fixed assets 4,599 5,947 6,776 7,58 7,41 Adjusted PAT 1,3 2,55 3,19 3,416 3,896 Investments Current assets Ratios Inventory 12,63 16,9 15,967 19,397 22,34 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E Sundry debtors 2,44 2,97 3,27 3,559 4,241 Grow th Loans and advances ,9 1,222 Operating income (%) Cash & bank balance EBITDA (%) Marketable securities Adj PAT (%) Total current assets 15,42 21,12 2,162 24,237 27,74 Adj EPS (%) Total current liabilities 2,934 2,745 4,154 4,842 5,263 Net current assets 12,486 18,375 16,7 19,395 22,441 Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure EBITDA margin (%) Total assets 17,167 24,42 22,864 26,983 29,922 Adj PAT Margin (%) RoE (%) Cash flow RoCE (%) ( mn) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E RoIC (%) Pretax profit 1,842 3,214 3,987 4,437 5,265 Total tax paid (545) (71) (797) (1,2) (1,369) Valuations Depreciation Priceearnings (x) Working capital changes (176) (5,356) 1,913 (3,414) (3,31) Pricebook (x) Net cash from operations 1,626 (2,275) 5, ,772 EV/EBITDA (x) Cash from investments EV/Sales (x) Capital expenditure (87) (1,924) (1,5) (1,5) (8) Dividend payout ratio (%) Investments and others 5 (1) Dividend yield (%) Net cash from investments (81) (1,926) (1,5) (1,5) (8) Cash from financing B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) 15 (125) () Inventory days Debt raised/(repaid) (676) 5,92 (4,35) 1,1 (5) Creditors days Dividend (incl. tax) (191) (281) (378) (397) (457) Debtor days Others (incl extraordinaries) (1) 46 Working capital days Net cash from financing (853) 4,731 (4,728) 73 (957) Gross asset turnover (x) Change in cash position (27) 53 (454) (26) 15 Net asset turnover (x) Closing cash Sales/operating assets (x) Current ratio (x) Debtequity (x) Quarterly financials Net debt/equity (x) ( mn) Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Interest coverage (EBIT/Interest) Operating income 7,36 8,596 8,79 7, 7,66 Interest coverage (EBITDA/Interest) Change (qoq) 7% 22% 6% 13% 9% EBITDA 1,84 1,16 1,335 1,336 1,332 Per share Change (qoq) 7% 15% FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E EBITDA margin 15.4% 13.5% 16.5% 19.1% 17.4% Adj EPS ( ) PAT CEPS Adj PAT Book value Change (qoq) 5% 12% 37% 15% Dividend ( ) Adj PAT margin 8.8% 6.4% 9.3% 12.3% 11.2% Actual o/s shares (mn) Adj EPS Source: CRISIL Research 7

10 CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research CRISIL Research Team Senior Director Manish Jaiswal CRISIL Research Analytical Contacts Sandeep Sabharwal Senior Director, Capital Markets Prasad Koparkar Senior Director, Industry & Customised Research Binaifer Jehani Director, Customised Research Manoj Mohta Director, Customised Research Jiju Vidyadharan Director, Funds & Fixed Income Research Ajay Srinivasan Director, Industry Research Rahul Prithiani Director, Industry Research Ajay D'Souza Director, New Product Development Business Development Hani Jalan Director, Capital Markets Prosenjit Ghosh Director, Industry & Customised Research Business Development Equity Research Saurabh Sabharwal Business Development Manager saurabh.sabharwal@crisil.com Phone : Priyanka Murarka Regional Manager priyanka.murarka@crisil.com Phone :

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