Better World Green (BWG TB) Buy (Maintained) Waste Not, Want Not

Transcription

1 Re-initiating Coverage, Better World Green (BWG TB) Buy (Maintained) Industrial - Waste & Environment Services Target Price: THB2.80 Market Cap: USD140m Price: THB1.52 Waste Not, Want Not Macro Risks Growth Value Vol bn Nov-14 Better World Green PCL (BWG TB) Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) 206 Jan-15 Source: Bloomberg Mar-15 Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 38.5m/1.08m Cons. Upside (%) 43.4 Upside (%) wk Price low/high (THB) Free float (%) 92 Share outstanding (m) 3,317 Shareholders (%) Suwat Luengviriya 5.7 Sippakorn Kaosa-ard 3.6 Charassri Pongpirodom 2.9 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute (8.4) (20.0) 21.6 Relative (6.6) (11.8) 33.5 Shariah compliant Chun Phokaisawan chun.ph@rhbgroup.com May-15 Jul-15 Sep We re-initiate coverage on Better World Green (BWG), a provider of hazardous and non-hazardous industrial waste management services, with a BUY and a THB2.80/share TP derived from an SOP valuation, which results in an 84% estimated upside return. We like the company as it is one of the few players which will benefit from the new governmental industrial waste management policy. We expect its earnings to surge by 38% CAGR over the next two years from its RDF project and the 16MW waste power plants. Waste not, want not. The company gets paid to properly dispose of the industrial waste (IW); it turns the IW into refused derived fuel (RDF) which it sells as an alternative fuel source to power plants (gross profit margin ~50%). The company will further add value by building its own IW-fueled power plants and selling the electricity generated to the grid. Earnings estimated to grow at a 38% CAGR over the next two years from new projects. BWG plans to more than double its RDF production capacity from 200tonnes/day to 500tonnes/day in 1Q16. Its two waste power plants with a total installed capacity of 16MW, are expected to begin on a commercial operation date (COD) in 3Q16 and 1Q17 respectively. We estimate earnings to grow by approximately 21%/59% YoY in FY16/FY17 respectively, as the company starts recognizing revenue contribution from the RDF project and its two power plants. A huge potential for waste processors as only 25% of industrial waste is properly disposed. Thailand produces 50.3mtpa of non-hazardous and 3.3mtpa hazardous waste while only 12.2mtpa and 1.0mtpa of nonhazardous and hazardous waste are currently properly disposed by the waste management companies. The Ministry of Industry has recently set a target to reduce the amount of illegal dumping of non-hazardous and hazardous waste by 8.0mtpa and 0.4mtpa respectively providing a huge potential for waste processors. Potential further upside as an MoU was recently signed with the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand to study and develop renewable energy industrial estate from unused material. As this venture is currently in the negotiating stage, we have not yet included it into our TP. Key risks: an economic slowdown and a weaker consumer confidence may cause BWG s customers to lower their production. Potential legal risk if hazardous or non-hazardous wastes are not properly disposed. Forecasts and Valuations Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Dec-17F Total turnover (THBm) 1,333 1,504 1,690 1,988 2,695 Reported net profit (THBm) Recurring net profit (THBm) Recurring net profit growth (%) Recurring EPS (THB) DPS (THB) Recurring P/E (x) P/B (x) P/CF (x) Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) net cash net cash net cash Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFA TM Platform 1

2 Table Of Contents Investment Merits 3 Valuation And Recommendation 4 Core Business 6 Industry Overview 8 Financial Analysis 10 Key Risks 12 See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

3 Investment Merits SOP valuation results in THB2.80/share Earnings expected to surge by 20.5% YoY and 59.0% YoY for 2016/17 Only 25% of industry waste is properly disposed, providing huge potential for waste processors RDF enhances value of the waste collected and revenue derived is expected to increase to THB100m in 2016 from THB10m in Earnings expected to jump by 59.0% YoY in 2017F, with contributions from other industrial waste power plants; these plants will account for c.30% of total revenue by then. Another 30MW from an IW power plant may be added over the next 3-5years horizon Industrial estate business could provide an upside of THB0.05/industrial estate to our current TP We value Better World Green (BWG) at THB2.80 per share, based on an SOP valuation. We expect earnings to surge by 20.5% YoY and 59.0% YoY in 2016F and 2017F respectively, with growth coming from its RDF capacity expansion project and its two waste power plants. We have not included any potential further upside from its industrial estate business, which could add approximately THB0.05 to our TP. We value its waste management business at THB2.42/share based on DCF with a WACC of 9.7% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. We value its two power plants at THB0.38/share based on DCF with a WACC of 8.2% and assume i) 20 years plant life ii) bases tariff of THB6.08/unit and Feed in Tariff premium of THB0.7/unit for the first 8 years upon COD iii) 0% tax for 8years and iv) average EBITDA margin of 75%. Plenty of room to grow its waste management business. Ministry of industry has estimated that the manufacturing industry in Thailand produces 50.3m tonnes/annum (tpa) and 3.3 tpa of non-hazardous and hazardous waste respectively, based on the total installed power. However, only 12.2mtpa and 1.0mtpa of non-hazardous and hazardous waste were disposed properly by the waste management companies. Meanwhile, BWG, who is the leading industrial waste management companies, only managed around 0.4mtpa of industrial waste. We believe there is a real opportunity for the company to grow in the future given that the Ministry of Industry set a target to reduce the amount of illegal dumping of non-hazardous and hazardous waste by 8.0mtpa and 0.4mtpa respectively, while there are only limited number of waste management companies with landfilled sites. RDF production capacity expansion. In 2013, the company started a renewable energy project which produces refused derived fuel (RDF), an alternative fuel, by shredding and dehydrating industrial waste. RDF produced from this project can be used as a substitute source of fuel in coal power plants and could be sold at THB1,000-1,500/tonne. BWG plans to expand its RDF production capacity to 500tonnes/day in 1Q16 from the current production capacity of 200tonnes/day. We estimate that revenue from the RDF sale will increase from THB10m in 2015 to THB100m in 2016F and will account for around 5.3% of the company s total revenue in Note that this project will also reduce the amount of waste going into the landfill and free up more landfill space since around 80% of new incoming waste will be used to produce the RDF. New industrial waste power plants to boost earnings in BWG has secured 20 years PPA contracts from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) for its two industrial waste power plants under the Feed in Tariffs scheme. The two power plants would have installed capacity of 9MW and 7MW respectively. The 9MW power plant is scheduled to commercially operation date (COD) in 3Q16, while the 7MW plant is scheduled to COD in 1Q17. We expect the company s earnings to grow by 59.0% YoY in 2017F mainly due to electricity sale revenue contribution from the two power plants. Specifically, contribution from the two plants should account for 30% of the company s total revenue in Additionally, the company plans to invest in three more industrial waste power plant projects totalling 30MW over the next 3-5 years. We estimate the potential upside of THB0.76 for the additional 30 MW. However, we have not included this amount into our TP as the company has not yet secured the PPA contracts from EGAT. Venturing into industrial estate business. BWG plans to build 3-4 industrial estates specifically for factories that generate a high volume of industrial waste. The company plans to invest in the land and infrastructure for the industrial estate then sell out the land to the interested clients; in this context the company has recently signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand to study and develop renewable energy industrial estate from unused material. The investment cost for one industrial estate is estimated at THB1.0bn (for 1,000 rai of land and infrastructure). We are assuming i) project IRR of 17%, ii) a discount rate of 9.9% and iii) the company holds 50% stake in the project. However, since the project is currently in the negotiating stage, we have not included into our TP this potential upside amount of approximately THB0.05/share per one industrial estate. See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

4 Valuation And Recommendation Figure 2: Valuation detail of the waste management business Through an SOP, we value BWG at THB2.80/share and recommend BUY. We expect core earnings to grow at a CAGR of 38% over the next two years from THB294m in 2015 to THB564m in 2017 which includes the RDF capacity expansion project and its two new waste power plants. We value its waste management business (Figure 2) at THB2.42/share and its two power plant projects (Figure 3) at THB0.38/share. Over the next 3-5 years, BWG plans to invest in three more industrial waste power plant projects totalling 30MW and we estimate the potential upside of THB0.76/share. We believe there is a high probability that the company will receive the PPA contracts for these additional 30 MW from EGAT since the Ministry of Energy set a total installed capacity target of 50MW for industrial waste power plants before However, we have not included this potential upside in our TP as the company has not yet secured the PPA contracts from EGAT. Its two warrants BWG-W2 and BWG-W3 will expire in December 2015 and June 2016 respectively. There are currently units of BWG-W2 and units of BWG-W3 outstanding with an exercise price of THB1.50/unit (conversion ratio of 1 warrant to 1 ordinary share). We assume the warrants will be fully exercised and our TP is based on a fully diluted number of 4,000m shares, thus the TP should not be subjected to any further dilutive impact from the exercise of these two warrants. Figure 1: BWG s SOP valuation THB/share Valuation Method Waste management business 2.42 DCF, WACC 9.7% Two waste power plants 0.38 DCF, WACC 8.2% TP 2.80 Potential upside 30 MW waste power plant 0.76 TP (including potential upside) 3.56 Source: RHB We value BWG s waste management business at THB2.42/share based on a DCF with a WACC of 9.8% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. Source: RHB We value BWG s two power plant projects at THB0.38/share based on a DCF with a WACC of 8.2%. We assume i) 20 years plant life ii) bases tariff of THB6.08/unit and Feed in Tariff premium of THB0.7/unit for the first 8 years upon COD (iii) BOI privilege of 0% tax for the first 8years and 20% tax rate thereafter and (iv) average EBITDA margin of 75%. We also assume no terminal value since the PPA contract expire after 20 years thus we conservatively assume all assets are fully depreciated by then and there is no salvage value. Figure 3: Valuation detail for the two waste power plants Source: RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

5 Figure 4: Sensitivity analysis of the company s waste management business WACC (%) Terminal growth (%) Source: RHB We used a peer comparison as a corroborative method to our SOP. Although the company is currently trading at approximately similar P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA multiples to those of its peers (Figure 5), we believe that BTG is more attractive as it offers a higher growth potential. Figure 5: Peer comparison Company Ticker PE (x) PB (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%) ROA (%) Waste Management Inc WM US Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd BIN US Takeei Corp 2151 JP n.a. Transpacific Industries Group Ltd TPI AU China Everbright International Ltd 257 HK Better World Green BWG TB Average (ex BWG) Source: RHB, Bloomberg See important disclosures at the end of this report 5

6 The Core Businesses Better World Green Public Company Limited (BWG) was established in 1997 with registered capital of only THB1m. The company operates under a one-stop service concept and provides complete industrial waste management services, including i) non-hazardous waste treatment, ii) hazardous waste treatment, iii) waste water treatment, iv) waste recycling & quality improvement of waste to be used as raw material and sustainable fuel energy and iv) other supporting business. Figure 6: Business structure Figure 7: Revenue breakdown by business unit (%) Sanitary Landfill Secure Landfill Waste water Quality Improvement Subsidiaries Construction Source: Company data Non-hazardous waste treatment: the company offers non-hazardous waste management service for mid-large size manufacturers. The company adopts a German landfill system which meets international standards with a control system to prevent pollution to the soil, water, air in the surrounding area. The site is located in Saraburi province with a total service capacity of 1,000 tonnes/day. Hazardous waste treatment: BWG also offers management service for hazardous waste. After the toxic level in the industrial waste was reduced to government regulated levels, the company would bury the proceeds in the company s own secured landfill which is located in the Saraburi province and has a total service capacity of 500 tonnes/day. Quality improvement & waste recycling: the company improves the quality of nonhazardous and hazardous waste which can be recycled into an alternative fuel with a high heating value. The company can handle up to 1,000 tonnes/day of industrial waste. In addition, the company has a system for filtering and processing industrial waste into RDF which can be used as alternative fuel, which is suitable for steam boilers. The company currently has an RDF production capacity of 200 tonnes/day. Waste water treatment: such service is composed of chemical and biological treatment systems with a total capacity of up to 450 cubic meters of waste water per day. Treated waste water is recycled and used within the company without draining it to an outside area (Figure 9). Other supporting business: the four subsidiaries providing supporting services for BWG (which account for around 40% of total revenue) are Better Waste Care (broker and marketing), Better World Transport (waste transportation service), Earth Tech Environment (recycler of industrial waste) and Akkhie Prakarn (industrial incinerator plant). Of the total income derived from these four subsidiaries, the one from Akkie Prakarn accounts for 80% and is a 51%-owned by BWG (49% by retail investors). Industrial waste power plants. BWG secured 20 years PPA contracts from EGAT for its two industrial waste power plants under the Feed in Tariffs scheme. The two power plants will have an installed capacity of 9MW and 7MW respectively. The 9MW power plant is scheduled to COD in 3Q16, while the 7MW power plant is scheduled to COD in 1Q17. These power plants will be built relying on the newest technology and will use RDF as fuel. The investment cost for the two power plants is expected to be around THB2.4bn. Both plants are located in the Saraburi province and the company will have a 60% stake in the two projects while the remainder 40% stake is held by the company s partner who has an extensive experience in power business. See important disclosures at the end of this report 6

7 Figure 8: BWG s landfill site Figure 9: Waste water treatment site Source: Company data Source: Company data BWG s target customers are mid- to large-size manufacturers (eg. Rayong Purifier PCL, Pepsi-Cola Thailand Trading Co Ltd, or Yakult Thailand Ltd) which are mainly located in the central and eastern regions of Thailand (Figure 10). Around 70% of the company s customers are manufacturers of electronic appliance and automobile parts located in the industrial estates such as Rojana Industrial Estate, Hi-tech Industrial Estate, and Bang-pa-in Industrial Estate. In the future, the company plans to further expand its customer base by providing its services to communities in the suburban areas. Specifically, the company plans to either build waste management centers for the communities or provide consultation services only with the local government providing the financing for projects. Figure 10: Customers By Region See important disclosures at the end of this report 7

8 Industry Overview Only 7% of total factories in Thailand dispose of their IW properly. The amount of industrial waste produced is highly correlated to the level of industrial production (IP). As the economy grows, the amount of industrial waste produced is expected to grow accordingly. According to the Ministry of Industry, of the total of 75,000 factories in Thailand approximately 97.5 percent are waste generators (WG) and only 2.4 percent are waste processors who specialize in waste treatment/disposal/recycle (WP). The Ministry of Industry estimated that manufactures in Thailand produce around 50.3m tonnes and 3.3m tonnes of nonhazardous and hazardous waste per year respectively. However, only 12.2m tonnes and 1.0m tonnes of non-hazardous and hazardous waste respectively were properly disposed by WP in In other words, only 5,300 factories or around 7% of the total factories in Thailand disposed their waste appropriately. As such, many manufacturers do not dispose their waste appropriately and creating the current illegal dumping issue in Thailand. Figure 11: Breakdown of the total factories in Thailand Waste Processor 2% Waste Generator 98% Although regulations mandate proper disposal of waste, illegal disposal remains rampant Source: Ministry of Industry In 2005, the Ministry of Industry issued an announcement on the industrial act Por Sor 2548 based on industrial act Por Sor 2535, which required all manufacturers to be responsible for the wasted they created and mandated them to dispose the waste correctly. However, illegal disposal of industrial waste is still occurring nowadays since disposing waste correctly will incur additional costs on manufactures which in turn could damage their competitiveness. As a result, some manufacturers decide to dispose of waste illegally. Currently, the Government has become more aware of such an issue and is trying to prevent it by monitoring manufacturers waste transportation systems to ensure that industrial waste is properly disposed. The Ministry of Industry has set a target to enforce more factories to dispose their waste correctly from , which in turn, should reduce the amount of illegal dumping of non-hazardous and hazardous waste by 8.0m tonnes and 0.4m tonnes per year respectively. Figure 12: Estimated total industrial waste produced in Thailand (tons) Non-Hazardous 1 Hazardous 2.3 Illegaly disposed Disposed by WP Source: Ministry of industry Waste management in Thailand is under the legislation of the Thai Government; the Government set out laws and regulations regarding the waste management process in the country. Since an industrial waste management company needs to obtain approvals from the Pollution Control Department (PCD), the Environmental Impact See important disclosures at the end of this report 8

9 BWG is the largest player, with a 50% market share. PRO and GENCO are the other players, but they operate in different regions. Competition is therefore low and plenty of room to grow for the existing players. Energy from industrial waste power plants to grow to 50MW by 2036; BWG has already secured 30% of this capacity. Assessments (EIA), and Health Impact Assessments (HIA), the industry has high barriers to entry and a limited number of players. Specifically, besides BWG, there are only two major competitors in the landfill waste management business, which are the Professional Waste Technology (PRO) and The General Environmental Conservation (GENCO) (GENCO TB, NR). BWG is the biggest player with a market share of around 50%. According to Thailand s Ministry of Industry, Thai manufacturers produced around 50m tonnes of waste in 2015, while the three major players in the waste management industry processed a combined total of around 0.8m tonnes of waste in the same year. Furthermore, the three players processing plants are located in different regions of the country. Therefore, the competition in the industry is still low. Figure 13: Energy from alternative power plants set to almost triple by 2036 Energy Type 2014 (MW) Target in 2036 (MW) Municipal solid w aste (MSW) Industrial w aste 0 50 Biomass 2,452 5,570 Biogas Biogas (Energy crop) Small hydropow er Wind 224 3,002 Solar 1,299 6,000 Large hydropow er 2,906 2,906 Total 7,400 19,684 Source: Alternative Energy Development Plan 2015 Given the overflowing amount of industrial waste and the illegal dumping issue, the government set up a subsidy scheme for waste power plant to address this issue. According to the Alternative Energy Development plan 2015, total installed capacity from industrial waste power plants could grow to 50MW by Out of the total 50MW capacity, BWG has already secured the 20 years PPAs for two industrial waste power plants, of 9MW and 7MW, which we expect to COD in 3Q16 and 1Q17 respectively. According to the Ministry of Energy, EGAT will buy the electricity from very small power producers (VSPP) who use RDF (industrial waste) as fuel, at an average rate of 6.93/Kwh Figure 14: Leveled cost of renewable energy Type Levelized cost (THB/Unit) Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF)-Mixed from Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) - Less than or equal 1 MW More than 1-3 MW More than 3 MW 5.93 Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF)-Landfilled 5.6 Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF)-Industrial 6.93 Biomass Less than or equal 1 MW More than 1-3 MW More than 3 MW 4.68 Biogas (Waste) 4.1 Biogas (Energy crops) 6.03 Hydro Less than or equal 200 KW 4.9 Wind Solar on ground 5.66 Roof top KW More than KW More than 250-1,000 KW 6.01 Source: Ministry of energy Note that the players in industrial waste power plant business are not the same players as in the municipal solid waste (MSW) power plant industry. The PCD approval is required for industrial waste which is regulated by the Government, while the MSW is not regulated. As such, we expect the competition in the industrial waste power plant business to be very limited relative to MSW s since the players in the MSW industry focus only on the municipal waste. See important disclosures at the end of this report 9

10 Financial Analysis We expect sales to grow by 59.4% over the next 2 years. The company s total revenue grew at an average rate of 19.7% per annum from THB1.06bn in 2012 to THB1.51bn in 2014 mainly due to higher average selling price. Average selling price grew from THB2,760/tonne in 2012 to THB3,912/tonne in 2014 while the total volume of industrial waste disposed by the company increased slightly from 384k tonnes in 2012 to 388k tonnes in Note that the revenue from the quality improvement unit grew the most from Note that the average selling price is based on the waste management service and transportation costs plus a certain profit margin; it is adjusted on a yearly basis. Figure 15: Sales growth averaged 19.7% p.a from (THBm) 3,000 2, , ,500 1, F 2016F 2017F Sanitary Landfill Secure Landfill Waste water Quality Improvement Subsidiaries Construction Electricity sale Sales may jump by 17.6% YoY/ 35.5% YoY for 2016 & 2017 as the company increases RDF production capacity and two waste power plants commence operations We expect total sale to increase by 12.3% YoY to THB1.69bn in 2015 as we forecast the total volume of industrial waste disposal to increase by around 6-7% YoY to thousand tonnes while average selling price increase 5% YoY to THB4,108/tonnes. However, we expect the company s total sale to grow 17.6% YoY to THB1.98bn in 2016 and 35.5% YoY to THB2.69bn in 2017 as i) the company will increase its RDF production capacity to 500tonnes/day in 1Q16 from the current production capacity of 200tonnes/day and ii) the company s two waste power plants, with installed capacity of 9MW and 7MW, will start their COD in 3Q16 and 1Q17 respectively Figure 16: Total volume of industrial waste and average selling price (tons) (THB) 600,000 6, , , , , ,633 3, , , ,058 3,912 3, ,341 4, ,355 3, ,846 4,395 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3, , ,000 2,560 2,760 2,500 2,000 1, F 2016F 2017F 1,000 Industrial waste disposal volume Average selling price/ton Note that the we expect the total volume of industrial waste to decline in 2017 as the company plans to use around 500tonnes of RDF/day as fuel for its two waste power plants. Additionally, the average selling price should improve significantly in 2107 See important disclosures at the end of this report 10

11 after a decline in 2016 since the average selling price of RDF is much lower than the average selling price of other services (THB1,000/tonne vs THB4,108) Gross profit margin consistently increased from 28.5% in 2012 to 34.7% in 2014 mainly as a result of i) higher average selling price which was the result of company s marketing strategy and stricter industrial waste management policy by the Government and ii) the RDF project which yielded higher profit margins. Note that the company also has high bargaining power over its customer as waste management policy is regulated by the Government and there are only few players in the industry. We expect the company gross profit margin to improve significantly from 39.2% in 2015 to 47.8% in 2017 as the company starts recognizing revenue from its waste power plants, where the company will receive a Feed in Tariff premium of THB0.7/unit on top of the Feed in Tariff of THB6.08/unit for the first eight years of the projects. Figure 17: Margins set to improve (%) F 2016F 2017F Gross profit margin EBITDA margin Net profit margin Core earnings estimated to surge 27.8% YoY for 2016F and 56.7% YoY for 2017F Core earnings are expected to grow 20.5% YoY to THB355m in 2016 and 59.0% YoY to THB564m in The surge in core earnings in FY16 is due to higher sale from its RDF expansion while the growth in 2017 earnings is mainly due to the earnings contribution from its two waste power plants which will receive BOI benefits. Figure 18: Interest bearing debt and D/E ratio (THBm) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,200 1, F 2016F 2017F (x) Interest bearing debt D/E As at end of 2014, BWG s debt to equity (D/E) ratio stood at 0.5x. We expect the D/E ratio to increase to 0.5x in 2016 due to debt financing of the two waste power plants projects. Note that the investment cost for the two waste power plant projects is estimated to be around THB1.4bn (company s portion). The company plans to finance the projects through debt financing and internal cash flow. However, we believe this is still at a manageable level as it is below 1.0x while interest coverage ratio is estimated to be at 8.3x in See important disclosures at the end of this report 11

12 Risks Weak economy. Approximately 70% of BWG s customers are industrial manufacturers while the rest of 30% are manufacturers located outside the industrial estate. Hence, an economic slowdown and a weaker consumer confidence could cause BWG s customers to lower their production and impact BWG s performance. Limited landfill space. Currently, the company has 250rai of landfill space with a total capacity of around 4.0m tonnes. Given that manufacturers in Thailand produce 50m tonnes per year of waste, there is a risk that the company will run out of its landfill space in the future. However, the company is planning to expand its RDF project, which will significantly reduce the amount of waste going into the landfill. Legal risk. If hazardous and non-hazardous waste is not properly disposed of during operations, the environment of the area surrounding the sites could be affected, which in turn could lead to legal issues for the company. See important disclosures at the end of this report 12

13 Financial Exhibits Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Dec-17F Total turnover 1,333 1,504 1,690 1,988 2,695 Cost of sales (896) (982) (1,027) (1,170) (1,406) Gross profit ,289 Gen & admin expenses (130) (141) Selling expenses (44) (53) Other operating costs (39) (46) (253) (284) (332) Operating profit Operating EBITDA ,373 Depreciation of fixed assets (208) (251) (256) (292) (415) Operating EBIT Other recurring income Interest expense (26) (36) (34) (40) (115) Pre-tax profit Taxation (32) (35) (66) (92) (92) Minority interests (20) (24) (30) (65) (204) Profit after tax & minorities Reported net profit Recurring net profit Cash flow (THBm) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Dec-17F Operating profit Depreciation & amortisation Change in working capital (18) (82) (30) (58) (157) Other operating cash flow Operating cash flow ,245 Interest paid (26) (36) (34) (40) (115) Tax paid (44) (49) (66) (92) (92) Cash flow from operations ,038 Capex (547) (283) (300) (500) (600) Other investing cash flow (24) (10) Cash flow from investing activities (571) (294) (298) (498) (598) Dividends paid 123 (93) (59) (71) (113) Proceeds from issue of shares Increase in debt Other financing cash flow (79) (111) Cash flow from financing activities , Cash at beginning of period ,285 2,953 Total cash generated (10) , Implied cash at end of period ,284 2,953 3,842 See important disclosures at the end of this report 13

14 Financial Exhibits Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Dec-17F Total cash and equivalents ,285 2,953 3,842 Accounts receivable Other current assets Total current assets ,802 3,558 4,651 Total investments Tangible fixed assets 1,711 1,756 1,800 2,008 2,193 Total non-current assets 1,831 1,872 1,916 2,124 2,309 Total assets 2,478 2,826 3,719 5,682 6,960 Short-term debt Accounts payable Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Total long-term debt ,292 1,853 Other liabilities Total non-current liabilities ,376 1,956 Total liabilities ,985 2,609 Share capital ,000 1,000 Retained earnings reserve ,107 1,558 Other reserves ,294 1,294 Shareholders' equity 1,464 1,682 2,517 3,401 3,852 Minority interests Total equity 1,652 1,883 2,748 3,696 4,352 Total liabilities & equity 2,478 2,826 3,719 5,682 6,960 Key Ratios (THB) Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15F Dec-16F Dec-17F Revenue growth (%) Operating profit growth (%) Net profit growth (%) EPS growth (%) BVPS growth (%) Operating margin (%) Net profit margin (%) Return on average assets (%) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) (22.6) (35.6) (37.7) DPS Recurrent cash flow per share See important disclosures at the end of this report 14

15 SWOT Analysis The largest industrial waste management company in Thailand Earnings may jump significantly in 2017 from the upcoming 2 waste power plant projects Legal issues brought up by the community surrounding its site Diversifying into industrial estate business Limited landfill space The Government s inability to enforce regulations P/E (x) vs EPS growth P/BV (x) vs ROAE % % % 60% % 14% 11% 30 30% 2.0 9% % -30% % 5% 2% 0-60% 0.0 0% Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs) P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs) Company Profile Better World Green provides non-hazardous and hazardous industrial waste management services. See important disclosures at the end of this report 15

16 Recommendation Chart na Recommendations & Target Price Price Close Nov-10 Feb-12 May-13 Sep-14 Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated Source: RHB, Bloomberg Date Recommendation Target Price Price Buy Buy Source : RHB, Bloomberg See important disclosures at the end of this report 16

17 RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Investment Research Disclaimers RHB has issued this report for information purposes only. This report is intended for circulation amongst RHB and its affiliates clients generally or such persons as may be deemed eligible by RHB to receive this report and does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. 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20 affiliation above. Pursuant to the Capital Market Law (Law Number 8 Year 1995) and the supporting regulations thereof, what constitutes as affiliated parties are as follows: 1. Familial relationship due to marriage or blood up to the second degree, both horizontally or vertically; 2. Affiliation between parties to the employees, Directors or Commissioners of the parties concerned; 3. Affiliation between 2 companies whereby one or more member of the Board of Directors or the Commissioners are the same; 4. Affiliation between the Company and the parties, both directly or indirectly, controlling or being controlled by the Company; 5. Affiliation between 2 companies which are controlled, directly or indirectly, by the same party; or 6. Affiliation between the Company and the main Shareholders. PT RHB Securities Indonesia is not an insider as defined in the Capital Market Law and the information contained in this report is not considered as insider information prohibited by law. Insider means: a. a commissioner, director or employee of an Issuer or Public Company; b. a substantial shareholder of an Issuer or Public Company; c. an individual, who because of his position or profession, or because of a business relationship with an Issuer or Public Company, has access to inside information; and d. an individual who within the last six months was a Person defined in letters a, b or c, above. Singapore RHB Research Institute Singapore Pte Ltd and/or its subsidiaries and/or associated companies do not make a market in any securities covered in this report, except for: (a) - The staff of RHB Research Institute Singapore Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies do not serve on any board or trustee positions of any issuer whose securities are covered in this report, except for: (a) - RHB Research Institute Singapore Pte Ltd and/or its subsidiaries and/or its associated companies do not have and have not within the last 12 months had any corporate finance advisory relationship with the issuer of the securities covered in this report or any other relationship (including a shareholding of 1% or more in the securities covered in this report) that may create a potential conflict of interest, except for: (a) - Hong Kong RHBSHK or any of its group companies may have financial interests in in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant (as the case may be) the securities in respect of which are reviewed in the report, and such interests aggregate to an amount equal to or more than (a) 1% of the subject company s market capitalization (in the case of an issuer as defined under paragraph 16 of the Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission (the Code of Conduct ); and/or (b) an amount equal to or more than 1% of the subject company s issued share capital, or issued units, as applicable (in the case of a new listing applicant as defined in the Code of Conduct). Further, the analysts named in this report or their associates may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant (as the case may be) in the securities which are reviewed in the report. RHBSHK or any of its group companies may make a market in the securities covered by this report. RHBSHK or any of its group companies may have analysts or their associates, individual(s) employed by or associated with RHBSHK or any of its group companies serving as an officer of the company or any of the companies covered by this report. RHBSHK or any of its group companies may have received compensation or a mandate for investment banking services to the company or any of the companies covered by this report within the past 12 months. Note: The reference to group companies above refers to a group company of RHBSHK that carries on a business in Hong Kong in (a) investment banking; (b) proprietary trading or market making; or (c) agency broking, in relation to securities listed or traded on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. 20

21 Kuala Lumpur Hong Kong Singapore RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd Level 11, Tower One, RHB Centre Jalan Tun Razak Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Tel : +(60) Fax : +(60) RHB Securities Hong Kong Ltd. 12 th Floor World-Wide House 19 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong Tel : +(852) Fax : +(852) RHB Research Institute Singapore Pte Ltd (formerly known as DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd) 10 Collyer Quay #09-08 Ocean Financial Centre Singapore Tel : +(65) Fax : +(65) Jakarta Shanghai Bangkok PT RHB Securities Indonesia Wisma Mulia, 20th Floor Jl. Jenderal Gatot Subroto No. 42 Jakarta 12710, Indonesia Tel : +(6221) Fax : +(6221) RHB (China) Investment Advisory Co. Ltd. Suite 4005, CITIC Square 1168 Nanjing West Road Shanghai China Tel : +(8621) Fax : +(8621) RHB Securities (Thailand) PCL 10th Floor, Sathorn Square Office Tower 98, North Sathorn Road, Silom Bangrak, Bangkok Thailand Tel: +(66) Fax : +(66)

22 Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Corporate Governance Report Rating 2015 Excellent ADVANC CPN GRAMMY KBANK MCOT PS RATCH SCB THCOM WACOAL BAFS DRT HANA KCE MINT PSL ROBINS SCC TISCO BCP DTAC HMPRO KKP MONO PTT SAMART SE-ED TKT BIGC DTC INTUCH KTB NKI PTTEP SAMTEL SIM TMB BTS EASTW IRPC LHBANK PHOL PTTGC SAT SNC TOP CK EGCO IVL LPN PPS QTC SC SPALI VGI Very Good AAV BBL COL HEMRAJ MC PG SCG SST THIP TPC TWS ACAP BDMS CPF HOTPOT MEGA PJW SEAFCO STA THRE TPCORP UAC AGE BECL CPI HYDRO MFEC PM SFP STEC THREL TRC UT AHC BKI CSL ICC NBC PPP SIAM SVI TICON TRU UV AKP BLA DCC ICHI NCH PR SINGER SWC TIP TRUE VNT AMATA BMCL DELTA INET NINE PRANDA SIS SYMC TIPCO TSC WAVE ANAN BOL DEMCO IRC NSI PREB SITHAI SYNTEC TK TSTE WINNER AOT BROOK ECF KSL NTV PT SMK TASCO TKS TSTH YUASA APCS BWG EE KTC OCC PTG SMPC TBSP TMI TTA ZMICO ARIP CENTEL ERW LANNA OGC Q-CON SMT TCAP TMILL TTCL ASIMAR CFRESH GBX LH OISHI QH SNP TF TMT TTW ASK CHO GC LOXLEY OTO RS SPI TGCI TNDT TU ASP CIMBT GFPT LRH PAP S&J SSF THAI TNITY TVD BANPU CM GLOBAL MACO PDI SABINA SSI THANA TNL TVO BAY CNT GUNKUL MBK PE SAMCO SSSC THANI TOG TWFP* * On Oct 1,2015 TWFP TWFP merged with TWS resulting in a new company, TWPC Good 2S AS CBG DNA GCAP ITD LHK MK PATO PTL SEAOIL STPI AEC ASIA CGD EARTH GENCO JSP LIT MODERN PB PYLON SIRI SUC AEONTS AUCT CHG EASON GL JTS LIVE MOONG PCA QLT SKR SUSCO AF AYUD CHOW ECL GLAND JUBILE LST MPG PCSGH RCL SMG SUTHA AH BA CI EFORL GLOW KASET M MSC PDG RICHY SOLAR SYNTEC AIRA BEAUTY CITY ESSO GOLD KBS MAJOR MTI PF RML SORKON TAE AIT BEC CKP FE GYT KCAR MAKRO MTLS PICO RPC SPA TAKUNI AJ BFIT CNS FIRE HTC KGI MATCH NC PL S SPC TCC AKR BH CPALL FOCUS HTECH KKC MATI NOK PLANB SALEE SPCG TCCC AMANAH BIG CPL FORTH IEC KTIS MBKET NUSA PLAT SAPPE SPPT TCJ AMARIN BJC CSC FPI IFEC KWC M-CHAI NWR PPM SAWAD SPVI TEAM AP BJCHI CSP FSMART IFS KYE MFC NYT PRG SCCC SRICHA TFD APCO BKD CSS FSS IHL L&E MILL OCEAN PRIN SCN SSC TFI AQUA BTNC CTW FVC IRCP LALIN MJD PACE PSTC SCP STANLY TIC TIW TPIPL UPF VPO TLUXE TRT UPOIC WHA TMC TSE UREKA WIN TMD TSR UWC XO TOPP UMI VIBHA TPCH UP VIH IOD (IOD Disclaimer) การเป ดเผลผลการส ารวจของสมาคมส งเสร มสถาบ นกรรมการบร ษ ทไทย (IOD) ในเร องการก าก บด แลก จการ (Corporate Governance) น เป นการ ด าเน นการตามนโยบายของส าน กงานคณะกรรมการก าก บหล กทร พย และตลาดหล กทร พย โดยการส ารวจของ IOD เป นการส ารวจและประเม นจากข อม ลของบรษ ทจด ทะเบ ยนในตลาดหล กทร พย แห งประเทศไทยและตลาดหล กทร พย เอ มเอไอ ท ม การเป ดเผยต อสาธารณะและเป นข อม ลท ผ ลงท นท วไปสามารถเข าถ งได ด งน นผลส ารวจ ด งกล าวจ งเป นการน าเสนอในม มมองของบ คคลภายนอกโดยไม ได เป นการประเม นการปฏ บ ต และม ได ม การใช ข อม ลภายในในการประเม น อน ง ผลการส ารวจด งกล าว เป นผลการส ารวจ ณ ว นท ปรากฎในรายงานการก าก บด และก จการบร ษ ทจดทะเบ ยนไทยเท าน น ด งน นผลการส ารวจจ งอาจ เปล ยนแปลงได ภายหล งว นด งกล าว ท งน บร ษ ทหล กทร พย อาร เอสบ จ าก ด (มหาชน) ม ได ย นย นหร อร บรองถ งความถ กต องของผลการส ารวจด งกล าวแต อย างใด