Cross Country Causes and. Consequences of the Crisis: An Update
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1 Cross Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update Andrew K. Rose and Mark M. Spiegel 1
2 Objective Update Rose and Spiegel (2009a, b) RS Search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic, financial indicators of Great Recession of Retain cross country approach 2
3 Methodology Check sensitivity of most successful results of others. These vary in different dimensions: o (10) Crisis Causes o (7) Indicators of Crisis Intensity o (6) Country Samples But not in estimation (almost all OLS!) 3
4 Findings Great Recession progressive; countries with higher income suffer worse crises (as in RS) Few other robust results, except o Current Account surplus provides insulation 4
5 Rose and Spiegel (2009a, b) Objective: link causes and consequences of Great Recession across countries Cross Sectional approach (only easier problem of crisis incidence, not timing) Data gathered in Spring
6 RS Considered Broad Range Crisis Causes Over 80 national causes/vulnerabilities Over 40 international linkages All dated 2006 (or earlier) 6
7 RS Modeling Strategy Link causes to multiple crisis consequences o 4 Crisis Manifestations 2008 changes in: a) Real GDP; b) National Stock Market; c) SDR Exchange Rate; and d) Country Credit Rating MIMIC model to account for measurement error 7
8 RS: Few Robust Linkages larger stock market run up: bigger crisis Higher 2006 real GDP per capita: bigger crisis 8
9 Negative Conclusion of RS Reliable Early Warning System (EWS) difficult if can t even model cross country incidence! 9
10 Two Reasons to Question Reliability What about more recent data? Others have found (a few) more positive results? 10
11 Cross Sectional Data Set Same 107 countries as RS All countries/territories with real GDP per capita at least $10,000 in 2003 All countries/territories with real GDP per capita at least $4,000 in 2003 and population at least 1 million 11
12 and 2008 Data Highly Correlated Four Crisis Manifestations 2008 against Changes SDR Depreciation Stock Market Country Risk Change GDP
13 RS with New Data MIMIC model y i j j i, i x i k i, k i 13
14 Parameterization for Updating RS Four Consequences changes in: a) GDP; b) stocks; c) country credit rating; d) SDR exchange rate Three Successful Crisis Causes from RS: 2006 Real GDP per capita as control stock market run up Proportion 2006 trade with US 14
15 Table 1: MIMIC Estimates Log Real GDP per capita, ** (3.9) 12.9* (5.4) 6.4 (5.2) 8.6 (13.9) in Market Capitalization ** (3.2) 8.9** ( ** (3.2) 8.6 (5.3) Trade with USA, % total 2006 trade.32 (.20).36 (.21).61** (.21).25 (.41) Current Account %GDP, (.3).2 (.3).1 (1.1) Credit Market Regulation, (3.4) 2.0 (3.1) 2.1 (5.9) in Bank Credit %GDP, (.11).23** (.08).1 (.4) Real House Price growth, (.05) ST External Debt % GDP, (.9) Observations
16 Results Similar to RS Negative, usually significant effects on real GDP per capita and stock market growth Little else But MIMIC methodology may be special 16
17 Emerging Literature Four Big Differences from RS 1. Measures of Crisis Intensity 2. Potential Causes (Covariates) 3. Estimator linking causes, intensity 4. Country Sample 17
18 Key References Berkmen, Gelos, Rennhack, Walsh (2009) BGRW Blanchard, Faruqee and Das (2010) BFD Claessens, Dell Arriccia, Igan, Laeven (2010) CDIL Frankel and Saravelos (2010) FS Giannone, Lenza and Reichlin (2010) GLR Lane and Milesi Fettetti (2010) LMF 18
19 Measures of Crisis Intensity (All Univariate) 1. Default: Real GDP growth (from EIU) 2. Real GDP growth change, (LMF) 3. Real GDP growth change, (BFD) 4. Revision to WEO 2009 growth forecast (BGRW) output gap (from OECD) consumption growth 7. First Principal Factor from 4 RS variables 19
20 Crisis Intensity Measures Correlated Different Crisis Measures '05-' '90-'07 Revised WEO Forecast for 2009 Output Gap Consumption Extracted Principal Factor
21 Revised WEO 2009 Forecast Output Gap 2009 Consumption Extracted Principal Factor Revised WEO 2009 Forecast Output Gap Consumption Observations
22 Causes: Many Unsuccessful Attempts Credit %GDP Debt %GDP Domestic Banking Sector Characteristics Fiscal Policy Trade Flows Capital Flows 22
23 Causes: Some Successes (Investigate All) House Price Appreciation (CDIL) Credit (BGRW, CDIL, LMF) Credit Market Regulation (GLR) Current Account %GDP (CDIL, LMF) Financial Leverage (BGRW) Fixed Exchange Rate Regime (BFD, LMF) Reserves (FS, Obstfeld et al for depreciation) Short Term External Debt (BGRW) Trading Partner (BFD, LMF) 23
24 Different Country Samples 1. Full sample (107) 2. (51) World Bank High Income 3. (74) IMF non Advanced 4. (89) non Oil Exporters 5. (91) non Small Financial Centers 6. (51) non oil, non FC High/Upper Middle Income 24
25 Countries Albania Algeria c Antigua & Barbuda a Argentina Armenia Australia a, b Austria a, b Bahamas a, d Bahrain a, c, d Barbados a, d Belarus a, b, d Belgium Bermuda a, d Botswana Brazil Brunei Darussalam a, c Bulgaria Canada a, b Chile China Colombia Costa Rica Croatia Cuba Cyprus a, b Czech Rep a, b Denmark a, b Dominican Rep Ecuador c Egypt El Salvador Eq. Guinea a, c Estonia a Finland a, b France a, b Gabon c Georgia Germany a, b Greece a, b Guyana Haiti Hong Kong a, b, d Hungary a a, b, d Iceland Indonesia Iran c Ireland a, b, d Israel a, b Italy a, b Jamaica Japan a, b Kazakhstan c Korea a, b, d Kuwait a, c Kyrgyz Republic Latvia Lebanon Libya c Lithuania a, b, d Luxembourg Macau a, d Macedonia Malaysia a, b, d Malta Mauritius Mexico Morocco Namibia Netherlands a, b Netherlands Antilles a, d New Zealand a, b Norway a, b Papua New Guinea Oman a, c Panama Paraguay Peru Poland Portugal a, b Puerto Rico a Qatar a, c Romania Russia c Saudi Arabia a, c Seychelles Singapore a, b, d Slovakia a, b Slovenia a, b South Africa Spain a, b Sri Lanka St. Kitts & Nevis Swaziland Sweden a, b Switzerland a, b, d a, b, d Taiwan Thailand Trinidad & Tobago a, c Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan c UK a, b Ukraine United Arab Emirates a, c United States a, b Uruguay Venezuela c 25
26 Causes of Crisis Intensity Begin to link causes to manifestations using simple bivariate OLS o Causes from 2006 (relevant time horizon for policy; reduce endogenous policy problem) o Include intercept o Control for Log 2006 real GDP per capita o Different Measures of Crisis Intensity o Different Country Samples 26
27 Informal Graphical Evidence Against Key Regressors Current Account % 2006 GDP; Corr=.31 Credit Market Regulation 2006; Corr=-.47 Bank Credit % GDP, ; Corr= Higher = Tighter Trade with US % 2006 Trade; Corr=.05 in Market Cap'n ; Corr=.17 Log Real GDP per capita 2006, Corr=
28 Effect of Exchange Rate Regime (Dummy for 2006 Fix) Revised WEO 2009 Forecast Output Gap 2009 Consumption Extracted Principal Factor All 1.42 (1.41) 2.11 (1.46) 2.08 (1.42).16 (.72).73 (.71).36 (2.39).14 (.17) High Income.51 (1.92).25 (1.72).60 (1.81) 1.15 (.98).62 (.70) 3.46 (4.64).01 (.21) No Advanced No Oil * (1.91) (1.48) (1.99) (1.62) (1.95) (1.53) (.91) (.80) n/a.73 (.71) (2.73) (1.13) (.24) (.18) No Fin l Centers 1.62 (1.55) 2.42 (1.60) 2.38 (1.56).29 (.73).55 (.78).38 (2.62).22 (.17) No Poor, Oil, or FCs 2.29 (2.01) 3.54 (2.24) 2.76 (2.10) 1.10 (.95).55 (.78) 1.86 (1.39).21 (.22) 28
29 Effect of Current Account (2006, % GDP) Revised WEO 2009 Forecast Output Gap 2009 Consumption Extracted Principal Factor All.23** (.05).20** (.06).21** (.06).02 (.03).07 (.04).18* (.07).03** High Income.21** (.06).17* (.07).17* (.07).02 (.03).07* (.03).16 (.11).02* No Advanced No Oil.26**.25** (.06) (.07).26**.26** (.08) (.09).26**.23* (.08) (.09) (.03) (.05) n/a.07 (.04).20*.25** (.09) (.07).03**.03** No Fin l Centers.22** (.06).21** (.07).22** (.07).02 (.03).04 (.07).19* (.08).02** No Poor, Oil, or FCs.27* (.12).33* (.14).28 (.14).01 (.07).04 (.07).26** (.09).02 (.02) 29
30 Effect of Trading Partner ( ) Revised WEO 2009 Forecast Output Gap 2009 Consumption Extracted Principal Factor All 14.8 (65.4) 46.9 (71.7) 52.9 (68.2) 73.9 (26.9) 29.2 (43.1) 45.6 (85.2) 1.0 (8.6) High Income (88.1) (89.3) (86.2) 66.8 (42.9) 16.2 (41.5) (149.8) 20.2 (6.5) No Advanced No Oil (87.1) (64.4) (99.0) (71.8) (92.1) (65.3) ** (34.2) (27.4) n/a 29.2 (43.1) (93.5) (53.4) (14.7) (9.5) No Fin l Centers 12.6 (85.1) 79.6 (92.8) 89.0 (88.3) 66.6* (32.1) 11.1 (48.7) 76.3 (124.6) 10.9 (12.4) No Poor, Oil, or FCs 21.9 (169.0) 89.4 (194.9) 98.3 (179.2) 85.8 (71.5) 11.1 (48.7) 95.5 (117.9) 12.5 (16.5) 30
31 Effect of Credit Market Regulation (2006, EFW) Revised WEO 2009 Forecast Output Gap 2009 Consumption Extracted Principal Factor All 2.38** (.68) 2.54** (.78) 2.72** (.74) 1.02** (.34).87 (.49) 1.63** (.61).21** (.07) High Income 1.15 (1.37) 1.30 (1.56) 1.17 (1.57).21 (.72).55 (.44).77 (1.17).08 (.14) No Advanced No Oil 2.95** 2.76** (.82) (.77) 3.10** 2.84** (.91) (.91) 3.38** 3.07** (.88) (.85) 1.33**.97* (.36) (.38) n/a.87 (.49) 1.93* 1.46* (.74) (.63).27**.22** (.08) (.07) No Fin l Centers 2.56** (.71) 2.75** (.81) 2.97** (.75) 1.13** (.35) 1.07* (.50) 1.60* (.63).21** (.07) No Poor, Oil, or FCs 2.22 (1.12) 2.51 (1.27) 2.82* (1.24).89 (.53) 1.07* (.50) 1.46 (.74).20 (.10) 31
32 Effect of Short Term External Debt (2006, % GDP) Revised WEO 2009 Forecast Output Gap 2009 Consumption Extracted Principal Factor All High Income No Advanced No Oil No Fin l Centers No Poor, Oil, or FCs.27** n/a.27**.30**.27**.25* (.10) (.10) (.11) (.10) (.12).32** n/a.32**.35**.32**.21* (.12) (.12) (.12) (.12) (.13).28* n/a.28*.30*.28*.24 (.12) (.12) (.12) (.12) (.13).12** n/a.12**.11**.12**.09* (.03) (.03) (.03) (.03) (.04) n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a.12** (.03).04** n/a.11 (.15) n/a.04**.10 (.15).04**.11 (.15).04**.04 (.16).03 32
33 Effect of Housing Price Change ( ) Revised WEO 2009 Forecast Output Gap 2009 Consumption Extracted Principal Factor All.06** (.02).08** (.02).07** (.02).02**.00.05**.007** (.002) High Income.04* (.02).06* (.02).06* (.02) **.005** (.002) No Advanced No Oil.07*.06** (.02) (.02).09**.08** (.02) (.02).08**.07** (.02) (.02).02*.02* n/a.00.04*.05**.007**.007 (.002) (.002) No Fin l Centers.06** (.02).08** (.02).07** (.02).02*.00.04**.006** (.002) No Poor, Oil, or FCs.06* (.02).07* (.03).07* (.03) **.005* (.002) 33
34 Effect of in Bank Credit ( , % GDP) Revised WEO 2009 Forecast Output Gap 2009 Consumption Extracted Principal Factor All.07** (.02).06** (.02).06* (.02).01.01*.11* (.05).011** (.002) High Income.07** (.03).06* (.02).05 (.02).02.01*.14 (.08).011** (.002) No Advanced No Oil.11**.06* (.04) (.03).11*.05 (.05) (.03).11*.05 (.04) (.03) (.02) n/a.01*.15.06** (.10).014**.010** (.004) (.002) No Fin l Centers.09** (.03).08* (.03).08* (.03).01 (.02) (.08).010** (.003) No Poor, Oil, or FCs.07 (.04).07 (.05).08 (.05).01 (.02) (.03).007 (.005) 34
35 Effect of Level of Bank Credit (2006, % GDP) Revised WEO 2009 Forecast Output Gap 2009 Consumption Extracted Principal Factor All (.04).002 (.002) High Income.05** (.02) (.07).005* (.002) No Advanced No Oil (.02).01.03* (.02) (.02).01.02* n/a (.07) (.003) (.002) No Fin l Centers * (.04).000 (.002) No Poor, Oil, or FCs.02 (.02).03* (.02).02.02* (.002) 35
36 Effect of International Reserves (2006, % GDP) Revised WEO 2009 Forecast Output Gap 2009 Consumption Extracted Principal Factor All.068* (.028).029 (.026).025 (.031).047* (.019).082 (.052).073 (.049).007 (.005) High Income.068 (.042).015 (.022).019 (.022).065** (.022).067 (.051).104 (.127).007** (.002) No Advanced No Oil * (.045) (.036) (.041) (.033) (.053) (.029) * (.027) (.023) n/a.082 (.052) * (.059) (.019) (.010) (.005) No Fin l Centers.066 (.036).045 (.033).032 (.044).042 (.024).082 (.052).115 (.083).007 (.008) No Poor, Oil, or FCs.007 (.075).017 (.080).028 (.071).051 (.050).082 (.052).038 (.040).003 (.010) 36
37 Results Not easy to link crisis causes to intensity robustly Failures: o Exchange Rate Regime o Trading Partner o Credit/GDP ratio o International Reserves 37
38 Successes Current Accounts (surplus helps) Bank Credit (less helps) Credit Market Regulation (tighter helps) Housing Price (less helps 45 observations!) Short Term External Debt (less helps 52 obs) 38
39 Including Causes Simultaneously Current Account, % GDP Credit Market Regulation in Bank Credit (% GDP) Extra Controls 1. log 2006 real GDP per capita growth in stock market (% GDP) 3. Proportion 2006 trade with US 39
40 Full Sample, Different Regressands Dependent Variable: Current Account %GDP, ** (.08) (.09) Revised WEO 2009 Forecast Output Gap 2009 Consumption Extracted Principal Factor.17* (.08).03 (.04).04 (.08).18 (.11).01 Credit Market Regulation, ** (.70) 2.30** (.84) 2.50** (.77).91* (.38).77 (.55) 1.20* (.46).14* (.06) Bank Credit %GDP, (.025).027 (.024).021 (.025).017 (.010).005 (.014).025 (.015).006* (.003) US Trade %Trade, (.046).021 (.053).021 (.049).049 (.019).021 (.038).037 (.045).001 (.005) in Market Capitalization (.99).80 (1.08) 1.00 (1.02).00 (.40).59 (.82).11 (.43).07 (.09) Log Real GDP per capita, ** (.1.21) 1.52 (1.52) 1.94 (1.29).05 (.55) 1.01 (2.06).44 (.76).38** (.10) R 2 Obs
41 Different Samples, Sample Period: Current Account %GDP, 2006 All.22** (.08) Only High.20 Income (.11) Drop.24 Advanced (.12) Economies Drop Oil.25* Drop Financial Centers Drop Poor, Oil, and Financial Centers (.10).22* (.09).30 (.15) Credit Market Regulation, ** (.70).03 (1.26) 2.44** (.80) 2.13** (.77) 2.09** (.70) 1.30 (.91) Bank Credit %GDP, (.025).020 (.025).065 (.068).007 (.026).031 (.035).039 (.038) US Trade %Trade, (.046).014 (.061).021 (.058).023 (.053).001 (.051).020 (.077) in Market Capitalization (.99) 4.84 (2.42) 1.03 (1.07).52 (1.83).77 (.99) 1.49 (1.32) Log Real GDP per capita, ** (.1.21) 4.27 (4.10) 3.97 (2.38) 3.36* (1.28) 2.95* (1.40) 3.41 (2.42) R 2 Obs
42 Sobering Results Poor fit consistently Despite pre filtering, many insignificant regressors o Stock market run up (RS) o Trade linkage with US (RS) Some Weak Successes o Credit significant at 5% for 1/7 measures o Current Account, income for 2/7 42
43 More One Real Success (GLR) o Credit Market Regulation: significant 6/ Real GDP growth o Three pre crisis vulnerabilities significant o Use that crisis intensity measure to maximize odds of successful EWS Even sticking with growth though o Results sensitive to exact sample of countries 43
44 Housing Prices, Short Term External Debt Current Account %GDP, ** (.08).12 (.22).17 (.13) Credit Market Regulation, ** (.70) 2.08* (.94) 1.72 (1.28) in Bank Credit %GDP, (.025).027 (.066).015 (.025) Trade with US %Trade, (.046).033 (.071).050 (1.86) in Market Capitalization (.99).86 (1.12).50 (1.86) Log Real GDP per capita, ** (.1.21) 2.47 (2.94) 4.35 (2.51) ST External Debt %GDP, * (.14) Real Housing Price, (.025) R 2 Obs Only short term external debt helps 44
45 Narrowing the Focus Further Sample Period: Current Account %GDP, 2006 All.21** (.06) All (no advanced.05 economies or FCs) (.15) Only High Income.21** (.07) Drop Advanced.26** Economies (.08) Drop Oil.22** (.07) Drop Oil.08 (.16) Drop Financial.22** Centers (.07) Drop Poor, Oil, and.27* Financial Centers (.12) Drop Poor, Oil, and.01 Financial Centers (.21) Credit Market Regulation, ** (.67) 2.38* (.93).51 (1.30) 2.73** (.79) 2.39** (.68) 2.59* (.97) 2.41** (.69) 1.86 (.95) 1.52 (1.47) Log Real GDP per capita, ** (.83) 1.53 (2.31) 4.93 (3.09) 3.15 (1.71) 2.92** (.87) 1.16 (2.35) 2.85** (.92) 3.32 (1.80) 1.73 (10.) ST External Debt %GDP, * (.13).37** (.14).43* (.19) R 2 Obs
46 Even Restricting to Positive Results Only short term external debt consistently statistically significant o Current Account positive; real GDP per capita, and credit regulation have consistently negative signs Fit still poor Weighting by population has little effect Non linearities (thresholds?) delivers little 46
47 Non Parametric (LWR) Estimation against Key Regressors LWR Estimation on Whole Sample Residuals; bandwith= Current Account %GDP Credit Market Regulation Log Real GDP per capita ST External Debt %GDP
48 Other Global Recessions: Current Account %GDP, 1990 All.29** (.08) Only High Income.30 (.16) Drop Advanced.24* Economies (.09) Drop Oil.33** (.12) Drop Financial.29** Centers Drop Poor, Oil, and Financial Centers (.09).57** (.19) Credit Market Regulation, * (.29).26 (.58).83* (.33).62 (.32).59 (.30).85* (.32) Log Real GDP per capita, * (.46) 2.53 (2.67).43 (.68) 1.26* (.49) 1.15* (.48) 3.69** (.84) R 2 Obs
49 Recession Current Account %GDP, 2000 All.03 (.04) Only High Income.05* (.02) Drop Advanced.05 Economies (.06) Drop Oil.06 (.07) Drop Financial.05 Centers (.05) Drop Poor, Oil,.06 and Financial (.05) Centers Credit Market Regulation, (.26).55* (.22).49 (.33).35 (.29).41 (.28).71* (.34) Log Real GDP per capita, (.31) 3.77** (.82).33 (.57).43 (.32).45 (.33).90* (.36) R 2 Obs
50 Results Quite Sensitive to Time Most Successful variables do not have stable (let alone significant) coefficients Credit Market Regulation: best result for Great Recession (negative, often significant) o Positive, often significant earlier 50
51 Conclusion RS: difficult to link 2008 recession to macroeconomic or financial indicators across countries o Updating data through Spring 2010 changes little 51
52 Focus: Causes that work for others Positive Findings sensitive to: o Measures of Crisis Intensity o Sample of Countries o Time 52
53 Message Natural to generalize from salient facts, but often inappropriate o Credit growth high pre 2008 in Australia, Canada, South Africa but small crises o Housing Prices fell pre 2008 in Japan, Germany, Portugal but big crises Still seems difficult to construct EWS 53
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