Prabhat Dairy (PRADAI) 184

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1 Result Update Rating matrix Rating : Buy Target : 215 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : 17% What s changed? Target Changed from 165 to 215 EPS FY19E Unchanged EPS FY20E Introduced at 9.5 Rating Unchanged Quarterly performance Q3FY18 Q3FY17 YoY (%) Q2FY18 QoQ (%) Net Sales (1.0) EBITDA (0.5) EBITDA (%) bps bps PAT (56.3) Key financials Crore FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Sales 1, , , ,012.3 EBITDA Net Profit EPS ( ) Valuation summary FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E P/E Target P/E Mcap/Sales RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Stock data Particular Amount Market Capitalization ( Crore) 1,797.2 Total Debt (FY17) ( Crore) Cash and Investments (FY17) ( Crore) EV ( Crore) 1, week H/L 150 / 91 Equity capital 97.7 crore Face value 10 Price performance 1M 3M 6M 12M Prabhat Dairy (17.3) Parag Milk Foods Heritage (13.6) Hatsun (10.2) Kwality (18.3) (6.8) (34.3) (37.8) Research Analyst Sanjay Manyal sanjay.manyal@icicisecurities.com February 14, 2018 Prabhat Dairy (PRADAI) 184 Healthy volume growth; gross margin step up Net sales for the quarter were flat at crore (I-direct estimate: crore) mainly on the back of 14% decline in milk price. The company reported volume growth of ~15% in the quarter. Gross margins improved 380 bps as milk prices declined substantially mainly due to lower global skimmed milk powder (SMP) prices. Milk procurement prices for the company were ~ 23/litre vs. ~ 26/litre in the corresponding quarter. However, overhead expenditure to sales increased significantly 310 bps (mainly due to higher promotional expenses & transportation cost), offsetting improvement in gross margins. EBITDA margins stayed flat at 9.3% Net profit declined from 33.8 crore in Q3FY17 to 14.8 crore (Idirect estimate: 12.5 crore) as base quarter includes exceptional income of 25 crore arising out of VAT refund. We believe the company would receive GST refund in Q4FY18 against Q3 last year. We remain positive on growth prospects of dairy companies as more than 75% of the industry is unorganised and there is a huge potential for growth in value added products Structural shift in dairy industry provides huge opportunity Changing customers preferences and spending patterns are leading to two major structural shifts in dairy industry shift from loose milk to branded products and from liquid milk to VADPs. With a growing urban population, higher disposable income and rising health consciousness, the organised dairy industry is expected to grow at 19.6% CAGR in 2016E-20E to 2.5 lakh crore with increase in market share from 22% to 26%. The increasing share of organised players and rising proportion of high margin VADPs together provide a vast opportunity for Prabhat. In order to strengthen its foothold in the VADP segment, it is ramping up its cheese & UHT milk capacity utilisation. Along with this, it is also planning to increase its presence in North & North East by increasing its distribution network to capture the large untapped market in VADP. Focus on increasing VADPs, B2Cs share in product portfolio We believe that with focus on a) the brand proposition, b) penetration in new markets (various tier II, tier III cities) & c) increase in utilisation levels of newly entered, high margin categories like cheese, ice cream, flavoured milk, curd and UHT, Prabhat enjoys strong earning visibility. We estimate revenues will grow at 12.6% CAGR in FY17-20E. Additionally, the share of VADPs (ex-smp) in Prabhat s sales portfolio was 39.7% in FY17. We estimate it will reach 45% by FY20E. Further, the share of B2C in the company has grown from mere 11% in FY12 to 30% in FY17. Prabhat is determined to increase it to 50% by FY20E. The focused approach of the company towards increasing the share of VADPs and B2C in the revenue mix would be the long term driver for the company. Strong volume growth; maintain BUY Led by a) the improvement in capacity utilisation levels, b) initiatives undertaken to expand the distribution as well as procurement network and c) higher advertisement & promotion expense in order to drive VADPs and B2C sales, we estimate revenue and adjusted PAT will report CAGR of 12.6% and 32.4%, respectively, in FY17-20E with an operating margin of 9.7% in FY20E. We continue to maintain our positive stance on Prabhat given earning visibility. Hence, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of 215/share.

2 Variance analysis Q3FY18 Q3FY18E Q3FY17 YoY (%) Q2FY18 QoQ (%) Comments Net Sales Net sales was flat during the quarter on the back of 14% YoY decline in milk prices however volume witnessed a growth of ~15% Raw Material Expenses Gross Margin bps bps Gross margins improved by 380 bps mainly on the back of sharp dip in lower procurement prices Employee Expenses Other operating Expenses Overhead expenditure increaed sharply as company passed on the benefit of gross margins in terms of higher trade discounts EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) bps bps Operating margins remain at 9.3% levels Depreciation Interest Other Income Exceptional Income/(Expenses) NA NA PBT Tax Outgo PAT Net profit declined by 56% as base quarter includes VAT refund amounting 25 crore Adj. PAT Change in estimates FY18E FY19E FY20E ( Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change New Comments Sales 1, We are introducing FY20E numbers EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) bps bps 9.7 PAT EPS ( ) Assumptions Current Earlier FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E Milk (Pouch + skimmed) We are introducing FY20E numbers Milk Powder (SMP+WMP+DW) Condensed milk Ghee + Butter Cheese, paneer, shrikhand Others Page 2

3 Conference call highlights The company reported flat sales growth on the back of decline in milk prices but it reported strong volume growth of ~15% led by pouch milk, cheese and curd. Value added product contributed 79% to the topline and pouch milk contributes 21% during the quarter Gross margins expanded 380 bps as milk procurement prices declined from ~ 27/litre to ~ 23/litre mainly due to significant decline in global SMP prices. The company is procuring milk at 22-23/litre currently. Gross margins in B2B business are at 16-18% whereas in B2C business gross margins are at 26-28% Operating margins remain flat at 9.3% as company re-invested the gross margins expansion in consumer & trade promotions. Similarly increase in B2C business requires higher expenditure towards building distribution network and higher transportation cost The company increasing its manpower towards direct sourcing network. It procured 1.0 million litre/day in the current quarter as against 0.85 million litre/day in corresponding quarter. Out of this 1.0 million, 0.7 million milk is sourced directly through farmers and 0.3 million through third party. The company has not changed MRP of any of its products despite lower milk prices. However, it gave increased trade discounts & consumer promotions during the quarter Prabhat Dairy has launched its exclusive retail store network in Maharashtra branded as The Goodness Zone. These stores are operated on Franchise Owned Franchise Operated model and it would take Prabhat Dairy s entire range of existing and new products directly to the consumers. The company plans to launch 500 exclusive retail stores in various districts across Maharashtra by These franchises outlet would be operating in Nashik, Ahmednagar and other cities of Maharashtra In a bid to increase its distribution network, the company increased its sales force from 270 in September to 330 in December Similarly its modern trade and general trade reach increased to 10% (from 289 to 320) and 25% (from 1 lakh to 1.25 lakh), respectively The company has increased its presence in North and North Eastern states focusing mainly tier II and tier III cities The company would continue to increase its distribution of ice-crème brand Volup. Currently ice crème brand is present in 2000 outlets. The company intend to become a major player in the category in Maharashtra Prabhat continue to maintains its Vision of achieving 2000 crore sales by 2020 with consumer sales (B2C) contributing ~50%. Similarly it intends to increase its retail presence from 1 lakh stores to 2 lakh stores and milk procurement capacity from 1.0 million to 1.4 million / day by 2020 Page 3

4 Exhibit 1: Increasing share of VADPs in revenue mix (%) FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Milk + milk powder VAP Exhibit 2: Improvement in capacity utilisation (%) Capacity utilization (%) Curd Ice cream Flavored milk FY17E FY20E UHT Cheese Exhibit 3: Revenue to grow at 12.6% CAGR over FY17-20E led by increasing VADP contribution FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Net sales ( crore) % growth Exhibit 4: EBITDA margin to remain under pressure in near term Exhibit 5: Adjusted PAT to clock CAGR of 38.5% over FY17-20E FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E EBITDA ( crore) EBITDA Margin (%) Adj. PAT ( crore) % growth Page 4

5 Valuation Led by a) the improvement in capacity utilisation levels, b) initiatives undertaken to expand the distribution as well as procurement network and c) higher advertisement & promotion expense in order to drive VADPs and B2C sales, we estimate revenue and adjusted PAT will report CAGR of 12.6% and 32.4%, respectively, in FY17-20E with an operating margin of 9.7% in FY20E. We continue to maintain our positive stance on Prabhat given earning visibility. Hence, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of 215/share. Exhibit 6: Triangulated valuation Multiple (x) Fair value ( ) Weightage (%) Value ( ) EV/EBITDA PE DCF Target Price 215 CMP 184 Upside (%) 17 Rating Buy Source: ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 7: Valuations Sales Growth Ajd. EPS Growth PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE ( cr) (%) ( ) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) FY FY18E FY19E FY20E Source: ICICIdirect.com Research Page 5

6 Recommendation history vs. Consensus ( ) Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 (%) Price Idirect target Consensus Target Mean % Consensus with BUY Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Recommendation history vs. Consensus News Events Sep-15 Listing on BSE and NSE with a successful IPO raising Oct-16 Commenced manufacturing of cheese with capacity of 30MT/day (3rd largest in India), paneer with capacity of 5MT/day and shrikhand with capacity of 5MT/day Mar-17 Ministry of Food Company Processing Industries, sanctioned a grant in aid of 10 crore to the Company for its cold chain proposal Mar-17 Prabhat launched ice-cream under brand 'Volup' May-17 GST rate for Ghee decided at 12% agaisnt 5.5% in GST regime Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Top 10 Shareholders Shareholding Pattern Rank Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m) (in %) Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 1 Nirmal Family Trust 31-Dec Promoter Rabo Equity Advisors 31-Dec FII Societe de Promotion et de Participation pour la Cooperation 31-Dec DII Vistra ITCL India, Ltd. 31-Dec Others DSP BlackRock Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd. 31-Dec Mondrian Investment Partners Ltd. 31-Dec Alternative Investment Management, LLC 31-Dec Wasatch Advisors, Inc. 31-Dec Sundaram Asset Management Company Limited 31-Dec Styrax Commodities, Ltd. 30-Sep Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research Recent Activity Buys Sells Investor name Value Shares Investor name Value Shares Mondrian Investment Partners Ltd HDFC Asset Management Co., Ltd Wasatch Advisors, Inc DSP BlackRock Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd Alternative Investment Management, LLC Rabo Equity Advisors Sundaram Asset Management Company Limited Van Eck Associates Corporation Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research Page 6

7 Financial summary Profit and loss statement Crore FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Total operating Income Growth (%) Raw Material Expenses Employee Expenses Other expenses Total Operating Expenditure EBITDA Growth (%) Depreciation Interest Other Income PBT Exceptional item Total Tax PAT Growth (%) EPS ( ) Adj. PAT Adj. EPS ( ) Cash flow statement Crore (Year-end March) FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Profit After Tax Add: Depreciation (Inc)/dec in Current Assets Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions CF from operating activities (Inc)/dec in Investments 0.8 (Inc)/dec in LT loans & advances (Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets Others CF from investing activities Issue/(Buy back) of Equity Inc/(dec) in loan funds Dividend paid & dividend tax Inc/(dec) in Sec. premium Others CF from financing activities Net Cash flow Opening Cash Closing Cash Balance sheet Crore (Year-end March) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Liabilities Equity Capital Reserve and Surplus Total Shareholders funds LT Borrowings & Provisions Deferred Tax Liability Others Non-current Liabilities Total Liabilities Assets Gross Block Less: Acc Depreciation Net Block Capital WIP Non-current Investments LT loans & advances Current Assets Inventory Debtors Loans and Advances Other Current Assets Cash Deferred Tax Assests Current Liabilities Creditors Provisions Short term debt & other CL Application of Funds 1, , , ,045.6 Key ratios (Year-end March) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E Per share data ( ) EPS Cash EPS BV DPS Cash Per Share Operating Ratios (%) EBITDA Margin PBT / Total Operating income PAT Margin Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days Return Ratios (%) RoE RoCE Valuation Ratios (x) P/E EV / EBITDA EV / Net Sales Market Cap / Sales Price to Book Value Solvency Ratios Debt/EBITDA Debt / Equity Current Ratio Quick Ratio Page 7

8 ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (FMCG) CMP M Cap EPS ( ) P/E (x) Price/Sales (x) RoCE (%) RoE (%) Sector / Company ( ) TP( ) Rating ( Cr) FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY17E FY18E FY19E Colgate (COLPAL) 1,096 1,120 Hold 29, Dabur India (DABIND) Buy 62, GSK CH (GLACON) 6,432 6,740 Buy 25, Hindustan Unilever (HINLEV) 1,349 1,360 Hold 295, ITC Limited (ITC) Buy 327, Jyothy Lab (JYOLAB) Buy 6, Marico (MARLIM) Hold 40, Nestle (NESIND) 7,264 8,580 Buy 75, Prabhat Dairy (PRADAI) Buy 1, Tata Global Bev (TATGLO) Buy 16, VST Industries (VSTIND) 3,264 3,900 Buy 4, Varun Beverage (VARBEV) Buy 9, Page 8

9 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai research@icicidirect.com Page 9

10 ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Sanjay Manyal, MBA (Finance), Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities Limited is a Sebi registered Research Analyst with Sebi Registration Number INH ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. ( associates ), the details in respect of which are available on ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securitiesis under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Sanjay Manyal, MBA (Finance), Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report. It is confirmed that Sanjay Manyal, MBA (Finance), Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Page 10

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