One of the most exciting Potash opportunities in the world

Transcription

1 One of the most exciting Potash opportunities in the world June 2016

2 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains statements that are "forward-looking". Generally, the words "expect," potential, "intend," "estimate," "will" and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. By their very nature, forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements, to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any of our forward-looking statements, which are not guarantees of future performance. Statements in this news release regarding the Company's business or proposed business, which are not historical facts, are "forward looking" statements that involve risks and uncertainties, such as resource estimates and statements that describe the Company's future plans, objectives or goals, including words to the effect that the Company or management expects a stated condition or result to occur. Since forward-looking statements address future events and conditions, by their very nature, they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results in each case could differ materially from those currently anticipated in such statements. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made. Competent Person Statement The information relating to Exploration Targets, Exploration Results, Mineral Resources or Ore Reserves, and the results of economic studies, is extracted from previous reports, as referred to herein, and available to view on the Company s website. The company confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that materially affects the information included in the original market announcements and, in the case of estimates of Mineral Resources or Ore Reserves, that all material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the estimates in the relevant market announcement continue to apply and have not materially changed. The Company confirms that the form and context in which the Competent Person s findings are presented have not been materially modified from the original market announcement. 2

3 What is Potash? What is Potash? Potash - primary use in fertiliser, along with nitrogen and phosphate (NPK) Saleable product is Muriate of Potash (MoP) which is 95% KCl (60-61% K 2 O) No alternative to potash as a nutrient Potash improves crop yield, water retention, nutrient value, taste, colour and disease resistance Potash stimulates yield response for other fertiliser nutrients ESTIMATED K20 FERTILIZER DEMAND BY CROP Fruit & Veg 15% Other 16% Sugar crops 10% Oilseeds 24% Grains 35% Food consumption (trillion kcal) Forecast of food consumption Developing economies Developed economies Source: CRU & FAO 3

4 Potash Market - Better shape than most commodity markets - Population growth - Reduction in arable land per capita - Change in dietary preference - Potash demand growth global - Not just reliant on demand growth from China - Prices have been impacted by - Break up of marketing alliance - Global economic conditions - Long term prices are supported by a steep cost curve - Top half of the supply curve has an FOB price of c$200/tonne - ELM FOB price of c$100/tonne 4

5 Overview of ELM Overview ASX listed Market cap A$90m New Chairman & MD Chairman - David Hathorn (Mondi CEO) MD - Sean Bennett (ex UBS) Republic of Congo Kola Sylvinite Deposit High grade - 33% KCl Shallow m below surface Large (573 Mt M+I*) and open laterally Bankable Feasibility Study to start in Q Mining license granted in August 2013 Dougou Carnallitite Deposit Very large (1.1 Bt M+I) Combined thickness >35m grading 21% KCl ESIA ongoing Mining licence expected Q Dougou Sylvinite Extension Prospect Exploration Target of 235 to 470 Mt at 55 to 60% KCl *M+I: Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources *Mt: Million tonnes *Bt: Billion tonnes 5

6 Why is ELM so attractive? Scale In excess of 5bn tonnes of resources (excluding Dougou Sylvinite Extension) Quality High grade and shallow ore with very low insoluble content Cost Expected to be one of the lowest MoP production opex on FOB and Brazil CFR basis in the world protects against fluctuations in Potash price Location Close to coast (35km) with own jetty and well positioned for off take to Brazil and Africa In-country infrastructure Excess of water, gas and power generation in country Sector Arable land decreasing and food consumption increasing. World potash consumption forecast to grow by 60% by 2030 (Fertecon 2015). Government support Kola mining license approved, Kola ESIA approved, Mining convention being agreed. Government support to take this forward Partners Summit consortium bring wide range of additional skills and de-risks the future Returns Even at very low potash prices ELM can generate cus$100m of free cash flow after repayment of capital and interest. In stronger markets cashflow increases dramatically 6

7 What are the key perceived risks? Africa and ROC Country risk General concerns over doing business in Africa and ROC. Macro environment Difficult environment for junior mining companies. Price weakness Potash price has weakened, in US$ terms, over last 24 months. Capex costs Capex of $1.85bn as per the 2012 PFS. 7

8 Africa and Republic of Congo risks Risk Description Comment Weighting Legal Business within Africa perceived to have lack of legal protection and corporate governance and compliance below developed market norms Local operations subject to Mining convention written into statute and subject to international abritration. Holding company subject to Australian law and ASX rules. Financial Exposed to FX and ROC market risk ROC XAF linked to the Euro. Revenue will be generated globally in USD. Only certain percentage of labour costs will be local. Political Political sensitivities around mining companies Mining convention, international arbitration and French consortium provides high degree of protection. ROC been pro international investment for over 30 years. TOTAL investing over $10bn in country. Timing Business in Africa often seen as taking longer than other markets While, as in all markets, there are processes that are sub optimal the ROC government hugely incentivised to assist in making process as efficient as possible Logistics Ports seen as risk factor Approval given to export through own jetty 35km from mine. French consortium take risk on imports during construction Labour / Skills Skilled labour often scarce Use of French Consortium de-risks this as they have over c20 years experience in managing large projects in Congo and using, and training, local labour 8

9 ROC Mining convention Aim: Parties: To create a stable, transparent and predictable contractual framework supporting the investors return on investment for the period between the investment phase (construction) to the mine closure. Government of RoC and the investor/project company and ratified by the Parliament. Typical rights & obligations of ELM including (i) mining permit rights (ii) management obligations (iii) community obligations Investment promotion provisions: (i) Tax holiday period, tax and customs tax rate applicable post-tax holiday (withholding tax, VAT, etc.), (ii) Corporate tax regime (depreciation, tax losses brought forward, provisions, tax-deductible expenses, etc.) (iii) Calculation of taxable income & royalty (iv) Special customs regime during construction Protection provisions: (i) Legislative ratification (convention adopted as Law) (ii) Investor s construction obligations subject to condition precedents and ratification Law (iii) Settlement of dispute resolution through international arbitration 9

10 Demand vs Supply Demand dynamics expected to be strong for long term 60% growth projected Demand driven by growing food needs, limited agricultural land and growing population Source: Fertecon Note: To convert from K2O to KCl multiply by

11 Demand 2015 (kt KCl) Growth projection to 2020 Source - Company 11

12 Demand vs Supply (cont) Supply being scaled back Currently excess of supply over demand Supply curve moving down due to lower Potash price and weak financial markets Capacity continually being taken out of market Existing producers looking to average down opex costs In short term only lowest opex mines likely to come on stream Fertecon (2015) estimated 9 new mines will come on stream in 2016, actual gross number likely to be below half. Market conditions rebalancing supply and demand which is positive for ELM 12

13 Supply 2015 (kt KCl) Source Company 13

14 Capex optimisation PFS estimated Capex to be around $1.85bn - This was in lower half of capex per ton of MOP across global Potash projects - Since 2012 construction costs have decreased - Engineering optimisation opportunities identified - Material scope for capex reduction Capex (US$/t of Annual Production)

15 Significant Resource (Mt) Sources: Public Company Reports

16 Strategically advantageous opex cost ELM enjoys the following cost advantages: - Shallow resource - Depth m - Many large existing mines are >1000m deep - Close to port - 35km to coast - Many large existing mines are >1000km from the port - High ore grade (33% KCl) - Low electricity and gas costs, abundant water supply Significant structural cost advantages 16

17 ELM at lowest end of Potash cost curve ELM v Existing Producers Source: Integer 2015 (Costs are from 2012) 17

18 Benefit of low cost of production - Total industry production of circa 55million tonnes (KCl) - 25 million tonnes has an opex cost of circa $200 per tonne MOP (current price circa $285/tonne MOP) - As this represents 45% of total capacity, prices are unlikely to drop below $200 per tonne for any period of time - ELM enjoys a low opex cost of $100 per tonne - Even at market price of $200 per tonne: - ELM should have operating margin of $100 per tonne when 45% of the industry is breaking even - At 2 million tonnes of production, ELM should still achieve EBITDA of $200m 18

19 SUMMIT led proposal Currently in exclusivity Summit consortium of investors investing minimum of USD 50m at AUD 20c * Provide the Company with sufficient funds to advance the Kola Mine DFS on the optimal basis of a 2Mtpa mine rather than phased approach increasing NPV (as per original PFS in 2012) and accelerate Dougou Extension Creation of Master Plan to encompass comprehensive strategic review of all projects and optimise holistic infrastructure footprint World class French Consortium of service providers to complete DFS (Vinci, Technip, Egis and Louis Dreyfus) French Consortium to deliver a binding fixed price EPC contract within 3 months of delivery of the DFS Enhances the ability of Elemental to finalise project financing and project delivery in an accelerated timeline Significant value creation for existing shareholders through de-risking path to production *Refer to Announcement 11 January 2016 Comprehensive strategy and financing to enable ELM to de-risk and fast track projects 19

20 Summary Quality - Shallow, high grade, low insoluble resource resulting in potentially one of lowest cost opex mines in the world Quantity - Significant resource of over 5Bt with exploration upside at all deposits. ELM aims to produce 2Mtpa in short term and 5Mtpa+ of MoP in the medium term. Location 35km from coast and other infrastructure (electricity, gas, abundant water, etc.). Own jetty Cost Expected lowest quartile MoP production opex on FOB and Brazil CFR basis Derisked Strategy ensures sufficient capital to construction, fixed EPC, consortium of backers with capital as well as industry and construction expertise (incl in ROC) Support - ROC government committed to assisting mine development and creating sensible environment for investment (Mining Convention) Overall one of the most exciting opportunities in the potash market with significant potential returns for investors 20

21 Appendices 21

22 Management Team David Hathorn Chairman David Hathorn (53) is the Chief Executive Officer ( CEO ) of the Mondi Group. Previous to Mondi, David was at Anglo American, where he was a member of the group executive committee from 2003 and an executive director of Anglo American PLC from 2005, serving on several of the boards of the group s major mining operations. Mondi Group, a FTSE 100 global packaging and paper listed group (listed on both the London and Johannesburg stock exchanges), with operations in 30 countries and 25,000 employees, has performed exceptionally well under David s leadership. Sean Bennett Managing Director Sean Bennett ACA (46) was previously CEO of UBS South Africa and Head of Sub-Saharan Africa. Sean joined SG Warburg in London in 1995 (now UBS Investment Bank). Sean moved to South Africa in 2008, with HSBC, where he was Co-head of HSBC Global Banking for Africa before re-joining UBS in Sean has over 20 years experience in advising a wide range of companies, state owned enterprises and Governments, including a number of large mining houses such as BHP, South32 and Sibanye. Sean has been involved in transactions around the globe as well as numerous countries across Africa. Sean is a British national married to a South African and has three children. 22

23 Management Team Lawrence Davidson Chief Financial Officer Werner Swanepoel Chief Operating Officer Paul Kluge Project Manager Andrew Pedley Chief Geologist Julien Babey Managing Director, Sintoukola Potash SA Ken Wheeler Operational Manager, Sintoukola Potash SA Held senior financial management roles for the past 20 years Previously Managing Director of DF2 Consulting and management consultant to Barclays Bank Over 20 years mining experience in senior management and consulting roles Formerly Chief Operating Officer at Premier African Minerals and VP Technical Services at Areva Over 10 years experience in remote mining projects in Madagascar, Mozambique and Botswana Formerly with Hatch Africa, Pr. Eng, MSAIMM 15 years exploration experience in Africa and South America Formerly with Falconbridge then UraMin. Pr. Sci. Nat. CP/QP for potash. Over 15 years legal and management experience in energy and mining industry in various countries in Europe, Asia and Africa Previously VP Legal for Areva Southern Africa and CEO of AREVA Mongolia Experienced mine and exploration geologist with over 20 years African experience Former Exploration Manager AngloGold Ashanti DRC 23

24 Corporate Structure 100% Elemental Minerals Ltd (ELM ASX) 97% 3% MGM RoC Elemental has a 97% holding in Sintoukola Potash which holds: 100 % of Sintoukola Permit which includes Dougou Deposit and Yangala, renewed January % of Kola Mining which holds the Mining Lease for the Kola Deposit Elemental Minerals South Africa (PTY) Ltd Sintoukola Potash SA RoC 100% 100% Kola Mining SARL (Kola Deposit) Sintoukola Permit (Dougou Deposit & Yangala Prospect) 24

25 Elemental s Potash Projects Reserves and Resources Category Million Tonnes Grade KCl % Kola Sylvinite Deposit Kola Carnallitite Deposit Dougou Carnallitite Deposit TOTAL MINERAL RESOURCES Measured Indicated Inferred TOTAL 1, Measured Indicated Inferred TOTAL 1, Measured Indicated Inferred 1, TOTAL 3, Measured Indicated 1, Inferred 2, TOTAL 5, Yangala Sylvinite Prospect Exploration Target (not a Mineral Resource) 235 to to 60 25