Gold versus stock investment: An econometric analysis

Transcription

1 Intrnational Journal of Dvlopmnt and Sustainability Onlin ISSN: Volum Numbr, Jun 202, Pag -7 ISDS Articl ID: IJDS20300 Gold vrsus stock invstmnt: An conomtric analysis Martin Surya Mulyadi *, Yunita Anwar BINUS Univrsity. KH Syahdan 9, Wst Jakarta 480, Indonsia MY Consulting Cntr. Citra II BG /49, Wst Jakarta 830, Indonsia Abstract It is important to hav a portfolio in invstmnt to divrsify th invstmnt to diffrnt kinds of instrumnts. Basd on prvious rsarch, it is concludd that gold is a good portfolio divrsifir, a hdg against stock and saf havn in xtrm stock markt condition. As an invstmnt instrumnt, stock is xposd to macroconomic risks and global stock markt risks. In this rsarch, w conduct a comparison btwn th stock invstmnt and gold invstmnt by using th probit conomtric modl and data from 997 to 20. Th final rsult obtaind from th modl shows that th gold invstmnt is mor advantagous than th stock invstmnt. Kywords: Gold invstmnt, Probit modl, Saf havn, Hdg, Invstmnt portfolio Copyright 202 ISDS LLC (JAPAN) - All Rights Rsrvd Intrnational Socity for Dvlopmnt and Sustainability (ISDS) Cit this papr as: Mulyadi, M.S. and Anwar, Y. (202), Gold vrsus stock invstmnt: An conomtric analysis, Intrnational Journal of Dvlopmnt and Sustainability, Vol. No., pp. 7. * Corrsponding author. addrss: martin@binus.ac.id, martin@my-consulting.org

2 Gold Pric (USD/troy ounc) Intrnational Journal of Dvlopmnt and Sustainability Vol. No. (202): 7. Introduction Invstmnt dfind as idl mony which is put away for futur us (Tyson, 20). Thr ar a lot of invstmnt instrumnts in which invstors could invst thir idl cash including stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ral stat, forign currncy, or gold. Gold has always bn a much trustd invstmnt which offrs a good financial rturn to th invstors. Thr ar significant bnfits in gold invstmnt that hlp mt th objctivs of th invstors. For xampl whn invstors invst in gold, thy invst in tangibl assts, whn compard to invstmnt in stock. Figur shows gold pric (using wkly pric) starting from July 997 to Novmbr 20. 2,000.00,800.00,600.00,400.00,200.00, Gold Pric Jul 97 Jun 00 Apr 03 Mar 06 Jan 09 Nov Figur. Gold pric from July 997 to Novmbr 20 This figur shows that gold pric incrass significantly during th last 4 yars. Historically, th gold has bn considrd as saf havn for th invstors; an invstmnt that is quit saf from crisis. Figur clarly shows that thr is no significant dclining pric vn during US financial crisis of and Europan dbt crisis of 200. Trnd of gold pric continu hiking, although from invstors viw it is not assurd a positiv rturn for thm. Figur 2 shows gold rturn using sam priod as in figur. From figur 2, it could b sn that thr is fluctuativ wkly rturn of gold. Although it movs fluctuativly, invstmnt in gold has lss-risk xposur than invstmnt in stock. Figur 3 shows comparison btwn risk of gold invstmnt and risk of stock invstmnt. Past studis hav rvald that th thr is rlationship btwn gold pric and stock. In this rsarch w provid comparison btwn th gold invstmnt and th stock invstmnt with th objctiv of idntifying which on could b considrd as bttr invstmnt altrnativ, and also to prov whthr gold is still a saf havn for th invstors. Th data on wkly pric of Indonsian Composit takn from th Econstats databas (constats.com) is usd for th conomic analysis. 2 ISDS

3 Risk (%) Gold Rturn (%) Intrnational Journal of Dvlopmnt and Sustainability Vol. No. (202): % % % % % Jul 97 Jun 00 Apr 03 Mar 06 Jan 09 Nov % Gold Rturn % % Figur 2. Gold rturn from July 997 to Novmbr %.2000%.0000% % % Gold Risk Stock Risk % % % Jul 97 Jun 00 Apr 03 Mar 06 Jan 09 Nov Figur 3. Risk comparison btwn gold invstmnt and stock invstmnt ISDS 3

4 Intrnational Journal of Dvlopmnt and Sustainability Vol. No. (202): 7 2. Litratur rviw Portfolio is a common trminology in invstmnt. Basically portfolio concpt suggsts th invstors to divid thir invstmnt in many invstmnt instrumnts to minimiz th risk of larg losss. Rgarding th gold invstmnt many studis suggstd it as on of th bst invstmnt instrumnts for divrsification. Chua t al. (990) and Jaff (989) analyzd bnfits of invstmnt divrsification in gold. Jaff (989) also concludd that gold givs an advantag in invstmnt divrsification. According to Sumnr t al. (200) divrsification is important across diffrnt global markts as wll as within various classs of assts and for at last som invstors, an invstmnt in gold has bn sn as a good hdg or saf havn against stock markt movmnts (p. 07). Ths rsults ar consistnt with th findings of anothr study conductd by Lawrnc (2003). From th rsults of this study which was basd on quartrly data for th priod of , h found a lack of corrlation btwn th rturn on a varity of financial assts and gold, and linkd this lack of th corrlation to th fact that th rturn from stocks and bonds corrlat with macroconomic variabl, but gold rturn dos not. Finally h concludd that gold is a good portfolio divrsifir. Findings from othr studis show that gold is a saf havn and a hdg against stocks in xtrm markt conditions for vry short priods. Bsid corrlation btwn stocks and bonds with macroconomic variabls, stocks and bonds also xposd to global risk. Svral studis hav invstigatd th impact of risk and rturn from global markt/rgional markt to domstic markt and vic vrsa (Balasubramanyan and Prmaratn, 2004; Eun and Shim, 989; Hamao t al., 990; Mukhrj and Mishra, 2008; Mulyadi and Anwar, 200). Thy concludd that thr is impact of risk and rturn spcially from dominant markts to smallr/mrging markts, although thr is also impact from mrging markts to dominant markts in th world. Ovrall, a rviw on th litratur rvals that gold invstmnt givs an advantag as a rliabl instrumnt for divrsification and a saf havn in xtrm stock markt conditions. In contrary, stock invstmnt is xposd to macroconomic risks as wll as global stock markt risks. Thrfor, w formulat our hypothsis: Gold invstmnt is mor advantagous than stock invstmnt. In this papr w addrss this hypothsis by mploying an conomtric analysis. 3. Data and rsarch mthodology Data usd in this rsarch ar wkly pric of gold (pr troy ounc) and closing pric of Indonsia Composit from July 4, 997 to Novmbr 4, 20. Both data ar takn from Econstats databas (constats.com). Wkly rturn calculation of gold and stock has bn don by using th following formula: R t = (P t P t-)/p t- () Whr R t is rturn in wk-t, P t is pric in wk-t, and P t- is pric in wk t-. 4 ISDS

5 Intrnational Journal of Dvlopmnt and Sustainability Vol. No. (202): 7 To tst th proposd hypothsis w us th following probit conomtric modl: I g = β + β 2 R s (2) I s = β + β 2 R g (3) Whr I g and I s is utility indx of incras in gold rturn and stock rturn using dummy variabl, rspctivly ( if rturn is highr than prvious wk, 0 othrwis). R s and R g is wkly rturn of stock and gold, rspctivly. To calculat th probability, w us th following quation: P g F( I s * P Y R ) P( I I ) P( Z R ) F( R ) (4) g ( g s g g g 2 s 2 ) Ii 2 R 2 s 2 dz ( s g s s s 2 g 2 * P P Y R ) P( I I ) P( Z R ) F( R ) (6) F( I ) s Ii 2 R 2 g 2 dz dz dz s g (5) (7) 4. Analysis and discussion Th first tst is conductd by using th scond quation. Using dummy variabl of incras in gold rturn and stock rturn, w found out that gold rturn is significant in 5% with lag 3. Whil using th third quation, gold rturn is significant in 5% with lag 2. Summary of tsting rsult is shown in Tabl. Aftr having th cofficint in Tabl, in ordr to tst incras probability of gold and stock rturn w assum R s and R g ar btwn -5% to 5%. Summary of probability is prsntd in Tabl 2. Th scond row indicats how probability of th incras in gold rturn is impactd by th stock rturn, whil in th third row w can s how probability of th incras in stock rturn is impactd by th gold rturn. Tabl. Summary of tsting rsult Scond quation Third quation β β (0.4775) ( ) 2.89** (2.0068) ** ( ) ** significant in 5%, numbr in parnthss is Z-Statistic. ISDS 5

6 Intrnational Journal of Dvlopmnt and Sustainability Vol. No. (202): 7 Tabl 2. Th probability of incras in stock/gold rturn -5% -4% -3% -2% -% 0% % 2% 3% 4% 5% Ig 53.59% 52.79% 5.60% 50.80% 50.00% 49.20% 48.40% 47.2% 46.4% 45.62% 44.83% Is 4.68% 43.64% 45.22% 47.2% 48.80% 50.80% 52.39% 54.38% 56.36% 57.93% 59.87% From tabl 2 w can s how th highr probability of gold rturn is incrasing whil th stock rturn is dcrasing. Undr assumption of 5% stock rturn thr is only 44.83% probability that gold rturn will incras, whil in -5% stock rturn w hav gratr probability (53.59%). In cas of incras in th probability of stock rturn, th highr gold rturn th highr its probability to incras. It can b concludd that whn stock invstmnt rsults in ngativ rturn, thn th probability of incras in gold rturn bcoms highr (mor than 49.20% probability). At th manwhil in th positiv gold rturn, th incras in th probability of stock rturn is highr compard to th ngativ gold rturn. This shows that in th ngativ stock rturn, thr is a highr probability to hav highr gold rturn than th prvious wk. Whil in th positiv gold rturn thr is highr probability to hav highr stock rturn than th prvious wk. This rsult supports th prvious findings that gold has advantags for divrsification and also is a saf havn for invstors and a hdg to stock. Thrfor, th conductd analysis in this rsarch confirms our proposd hypothsis that gold invstmnt is mor advantagous than stock invstmnt. 5. Conclusion Th rsult from this study showd that th gold invstmnt is quit saf for th invstors and could b catgorizd as saf havn. This conclusion is also supportd by th prvious rsarch that idntifid gold as a good portfolio divrsifir and a hdg against stocks as wll as a saf havn in xtrm stock markt conditions. Whn stock invstors in loss, gold rturn tnds to incras. Whil whn gold rturn incrass, it givs linar impact to th stock rturn. Rfrncs Balasubramanyan., L. and Prmaratn, G. (2003), Volatility spillovr and co-movmnt: Som nw vidnc from Singapor, working papr, Pnnsylvania Stat Univrsity, Pnnsylvania. Baur, D.G., and Lucy, B.M. (200), Is gold a hdg or a saf havn? An analysis of stocks, bonds and gold, Financial Rviw, Vol. 45, pp Blos, L.E., and Shih, J.C.P. (995), Th impact of gold pric on th valu of gold mining stock, Rviw of Financial Economics, Vol. 4, pp ISDS

7 Intrnational Journal of Dvlopmnt and Sustainability Vol. No. (202): 7 Chua, J., Sick, G. and Woodward, R. (990), Divrsifying with gold stocks, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 46, pp Eun, C.S. and Shim, S. (989), Intrnational transmission of stock markt movmnts, Journal of Financial and Quantitativ Analysis, Vol. 24, pp Hamao, Y.R., Masulis, R.W. and Ng, V.K. (990), Corrlations in pric changs and volatility across intrnational stock markts, Rviw of Financial Studis, Vol. 3, pp Jaff, J. (989), Gold and gold stocks as invstmnts for institutional portfolios, Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 45, pp Lawrnc, C. (2003), Why is gold diffrnt from othr assts? An mpirical invstigation, World Gold Council, London. Mukhrj, K. and Mishra, R.K. (2008), Stock markt intgration and volatility spillovr: India and its major Asian countrparts, working papr 2788, Univrsity Library of Munich, 26 Dc Mulyadi, M.S. and Anwar, Y. (200), Rturn and volatility spillovr across USA and Europ (Study of Amrican and EU crisis priod), in Tnth Annual IBER & TLC Confrnc Procdings of th intrnational confrnc in Las Vgas, USA, 200, Th Clut Institut, Colorado, pp. 0. Sumnr, S., Johnson, R. and Sonn, L. (200), Spillovr ffcts btwn gold, stocks, and bonds, Journal of Cntrum Cathdra, Vol. 3, pp Tyson, E. (20), Invsting for Dummis 6 th Ed, John Wily & Sons, Hobokn. ISDS 7