首都國際機場 首都國際機場 (694.HK) 業績符合預期, 調整繼續推進 增持 ( 維持 ) 香港 航空支援 更新報告 11 MAY 2016

Transcription

1 EQUITY RESEARCH 首都國際機場 首都國際機場 (694.HK) 業績符合預期, 調整繼續推進 香港 航空支援 更新報告 15 年多賺 18%, 符合預期 : 首都機場 2015 年全年的營業收入錄得 85.1 億人民幣, 按年升 11.2%, 純利按年增長 18% 至人民幣 億 每股盈利人民幣 0.38 元, 基本符合我們之前預估的 0.37 元, 去年同期為 0.32 元 末期息人民幣 9.43 分, 全年共派息 分,40% 分紅派息率維持 債務結構持續優化, 總資產負債率由 46% 下降到 44% 低基數帶動航空交通量增速小幅提升 : 15 年公司的飛機起降架次達 59 萬架次, 按年上升 1.4%; 旅客吞吐量 8994 萬人次, 同比增加 4.4%; 貨郵吞吐量達 189 萬噸, 較同期增長 2.2% 航空業務量的增幅較上一年度有小幅提升, 主要受 2014 年基數較低和出境游需求旺盛帶動 全年航空性業務收入 45.9 億元, 較上一年增 5.2% 非航業務創新繼續推進 :2015 年起, 公司對非航業務的經營模式進行了調整和創新 收入增加的同時費用亦同比增長 如果剔除模式轉變的影響, 非航收入增速有所放緩, 我們認為, 人民幣的貶值導致免稅店價格優勢減弱, 互聯網拼車等出行方式的變革, 新廣告法的實施, 都對非航業務產生一定的負面影響 增持 ( 維持 ) 11 MAY 2016 現價 : HKD 8.14 ( 現價截至 5 月 9 日 ) 目標價 : HKD 9.23 (+13%) 公司資料 普通股股東 ( 百萬股 ) : 4331 市值 ( 港幣百萬元 ) : 周最高價 / 最低價 ( 港幣元 ) : 9.71 / 6.33 主要股東 % 首都機場集團公司 Fortland Ventures Limited 8.94 估值與投資建議 : 北京第二機場最快需 2019 年投入使用, 可能會影響公司的業務量, 不過, 對於陷入容量增長瓶頸的首都機場, 並不是一個十分利空的消息 開通時或有 20% 的分流,3 4 年後即有望重新恢復 且公司管理層計劃利用此次機會進一步調整優化流量結構, 提升國際旅客比率 我們維持目標價 HK$9.23 不變, 相當於 2016 年預計每股 EBITDA 的 7 倍, 給予 增持 評級 ( 現價截至 5 月 9 日 ) 股價 & HSI 指數 Source: aastock, Phillip Securities (HK) Research 財務資料 CNY mn FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Net Sales Net Profit EPS, HKD P/E, x BVPS, HKD P/BV, x DPS (HKD) Div. Yield (%) 2.0% 2.2% 2.6% 3.0% Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Est. 研究分析員章晶 ( ) zhangjing@phillip.com.cn Page 1 PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH

2 View of BCIA s Revenue by segment Aeronautical Non-Aeronautical aeronautical-yoy(r) non-aeronautical-yoy(r) % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Hong Kong Research Concessions Breakdown Restaurant s and food shops 7% Ground handling service 5% Other 4% Retailing 42% Advertisin g 42% Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Hong Kong Research Margin trend 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% operation margin net profit margin 0% 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Hong Kong Research Page 2 PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH

3 Peer Comparison Ticker Name MaCap (HKD mil) P/B P/B:2F Y P/E:1F Y P/E:2F Y Cur EV/ EBITDA CHF (1 security) FHZN SW Equity FLUGHAFEN Z CNY (4 securities) CH Equity SHANGHAI INT CH Equity SHENZHEN AI CH Equity GUANGZHOU CH Equity XIAMEN INTER DKK (1 security) KBHL DC Equity KOBENHAVNS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A EUR (3 securities) FLU AV Equity FLUGHAFEN W FRA GR Equity FRAPORT AG AFI IM Equity AEROPORTO N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HKD (2 securities) 694 HK Equity BEIJING CAPIT HK Equity HNA INFRAST 3819 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A JPY (2 securities) 8864 JP Equity AIRPORT FAC 1865 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A JP Equity JAPAN AIRPO NZD (1 security) AIA NZ Equity AUCKLAND IN THB (1 security) AOT TB Equity AIRPORTS OF Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Hong Kong Research P/B ROA LF ROE Page 3 PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH

4 財務報告 FYE DEC FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16F FY17F Valuation Ratios P/E (X), adj P/B (X) Payout ratio 30.0% 40.8% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% Dividend Yield (%) 1.2% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.6% 3.0% Per share data (RMB) EPS, (Basic) EPS, (Diluted) DPS BVPS Grow th & Margins (%) Grow th Revenue 12.5% 5.6% 5.3% 6.0% 11.2% 5.7% 5.6% EBITDA 22.1% 2.4% 4.2% 0.7% 14.2% 9.3% 7.1% Net Income, adj. 87.2% 3.1% 15.7% 4.7% 18.0% 18.5% 13.3% Margins Operating margin 31.9% 31.3% 31.6% 31.3% 32.9% 35.7% 37.3% EBITDA margin 55.1% 53.4% 52.9% 50.3% 51.6% 53.4% 54.1% Net Profit Margin 17.1% 16.7% 18.4% 18.2% 19.3% 21.6% 23.2% ROE 8.0% 7.7% 8.5% 8.3% 9.3% 10.3% 10.8% Income Statement (RMB mn) Revenue Aeronautical Non-Aeronautical Operating profit EBITDA Profit before tax Tax Profit for the period Total capital share Net profit Source: PSR (Financial figuers as at 9 May 2016) Page 4 PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH

5 PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price +5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% Reduce 4-5% to -20% downside from the current price <-20% Sell 5 >20%downside from the current price We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the Research ) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this publication is subject to change, and Phillip Securities shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. This publication should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this publication has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any product described in this material is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products which may be described in this publication involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks. Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in this research should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such security. Disclosure of Interest Analyst Disclosure: Neither the analyst(s) preparing this report nor his associate has any financial interest in or serves as an officer of the listed corporation covered in this report. Firm s Disclosure: Phillip Securities does not have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation covered in this report nor any financial interest of 1% or more of the market capitalization in the listed corporation. In addition, no executive staff of Phillip Securities serves as an officer of the listed corporation. Availability The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction. Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ( PSHK ) believed to be accurate. PSHK does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. PSHK (or its affiliates or employees) may have positions in relevant investment products. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited Page 5 PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH

6 SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd 250 North Bridge Road, #06-00 Raffles City Tower, Singapore Tel : (65) Fax: (65) INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A, Jakarta 10220, Indonesia Tel (62) Fax: (62) THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd. 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok Thailand Tel (66) Fax: (66) UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc. 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL USA Tel (1) Fax: (1) Contact Information (Regional Member Companies) MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block B Level 3, Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, Kuala Lumpur Tel (60) Fax (60) CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. No 436 Heng Feng Road, Green Tech Tower Unit 604 Shanghai Tel (86) Fax: (86) FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Ltd. 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance Paris France Tel (33) Fax : (33) AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 12, 15 William Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel: (61) Fax: (61) HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) Fax: (852) JAPAN Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd 4-2 Nihonbashi Kabutocho, Chuo-ku Tokyo Tel: (81) Fax: (81) INDIA PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited No. 1, 18th Floor, Urmi Estate, 95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel West, Mumbai Tel: (9122) Fax: (9122) UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Ltd. 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44) Fax: (44) SRI LANKA Asha Phillip Securities Limited Level 4, Millennium House, 46/58 Navam Mawatha, Colombo 2, Sri Lanka Tel: (94) Fax: (94) Page 6 PHILLIPCAPITAL HONGKONG RESEARCH