Top Glove TOPG MK Sector: Rubber Products
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- Clinton Booker
- 5 years ago
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1 7 June 2016 Speed bump Top Glove, a country top pick, is set to announce 3Q FY16 results next week. We project core net profit to be weaker qoq at RM8090m, on overall lower ASPs, higher raw material prices and a stronger Ringgit for the quarter. Our nearterm outlook remains intact, driven by a 17% rise in capacity by FY17E. Incremental nitrile volume growth and productivity gains should partially alleviate margin pressure. 3Q FY16E core net profit likely weaker qoq but higher yoy Topline should stay flattish or slightly lower qoq, as we expect the ASP to trend lower on supply overhang. However, this should be offset by higher sales volume on a higher number of earning days. We expect EBITDA margins to drop below 20% in the quarter, mainly due to higher latex prices (+29% qoq) and stronger Ringgit (+6% qoq), but partially offset by incremental nitrile volume growth. All in, core net profit should come in between RM80m (24% qoq) and RM90m (14% qoq), bringing 9MFY16 to ~75% of FY16 estimates. This report marks a transfer of analyst coverage. Rawmaterials rally not sustainable, in our view We expect latex prices to trend lower in coming quarters as the wintering period comes to an end. Latex inventory buildup, already near a record high, could accelerate when the tripartite agreement in curbing production to shore up latex prices expires in August China s slowing economy will likely weigh on latex prices in the absence of followthrough demand. Latex prices have declined 12% from the peak at endapril. Growing nitrile contribution likely to sustain margins We expect the nearterm outlook to be underpinned by the commissioning of 3 new plants, which should bring its total installed capacity to 52.4bn pieces p.a. (+17% yoy) by FY17E. The nitrilefocused capacity growth is in line with its strategic expansion to increase nitrile contribution to 50% to cater for growing market demand. Incremental growth in nitrile volume should sustain EBITDA margins, partially alleviating margin pressure. Top Glove is our top sector pick; reaffirm BUY rating We continue to like Top Glove for its productmix management and attractive valuation. Its shares currently trade at a CY16E PER of 15x, still behind sector leader Hartalega (HART MK, RM4.09, HOLD) (24x) despite a higher production capacity and earnings base. Top Glove also offers the highest trading liquidity within our sector coverage. We reaffirm our BUY rating and 12month target price of RM7.17, based on a CY16E PER of 21x (+1SD above past3year mean PER). Risk: currency volatility. Earnings & Valuation Summary FYE Aug E 2017E 2018E Revenue (RMm) 2, , , , ,312.6 EBITDA (RMm) Pretax profit (RMm) Net profit (RMm) EPS (sen) PER (x) Core net profit (RMm) Core EPS (sen) Core EPS growth (%) (6.8) Core PER (x) Net DPS (sen) Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Chg in EPS (%) Affin/Consensus (x) Source: Company, Affin Hwang forecasts, Bloomberg Company Update Top Glove TOPG MK Sector: Rubber Products 6 June 2016 BUY (maintain) Upside: +41% Price Target: RM7.17 Previous Target: RM7.17 (RM) May13 Sep13 Jan14 May14 Sep14 Jan15 May15 Sep15 Jan16 May16 Price Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute +2.4% 5.2% +86.9% Rel to KLCI +2.4% 2.7% +97.8% Stock Data Issued shares (m) 1,252.5 Mkt cap (RMm)/(US$m) 6,388/1,558 Avg daily vol 6mth (m) wk range (RM) Est free float 46.3% BV per share (RM) 1.41 P/BV (x) 3.62 Net cash/ (debt) (RMm) (1Q16) ROE (2016E) 23.1% Derivatives Nil Shariah Compliant Yes Key Shareholders Wee Chai Lim 29.4% Employees Provident Fund 6.7% Firstway United Corp Source: Affin Hwang, Bloomberg 5.1% Aaron Kee (603) , aaron.kee@affinhwang.com Page 1 of 8
2 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 7 June QFY16 revenue tracking weaker qoq We expect Top Glove s 3QFY16 revenue to be flattish or slightly lower qoq, in tandem with the weaker nitrile glove prices qoq, on top of the sharp appreciation of the Ringgit against the US$. However, this should be offset by higher sales volume, which should register a slight uptick on higher earnings days qoq and incremental nitrile glove demand growth. No capacity was added for the quarter, as the commissioning of Factory 27 in Lukut (2.0 bn) has been delayed to 4QFY16. Fig 1: Quarterly revenue since FY14 (RMm) Revenue (LHS) qoq chg (RHS) % Fig 2: Quarterly core net profit and EBITDA margin since FY14 (RMm) Core net profit (LHS) EBITDA margin % (RHS) % 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Source: Company Source: Company, Affin Hwang ASP decline for the quarter We expect ASPs to decline by midsingle digits for the quarter, in line with most glove makers. The temporary supply overhang still plagues the market on new capacity, as demand is playing catch up. The bulk of the ASP decline centred mostly on nitrile gloves, while latex glove prices held up relatively well due to minimal capacity expansion in the recent year. Core net profit likely to trend lower; slight margin contraction We project 3QFY16 core net profit to trend lower qoq to the tune of RM8090m, but still be higher yoy. Marginwise, we expect the slight qoq contraction on account of: (i) ASP decline; (ii) zero capacity growth; (iii) weakening dollar; and (iv) overall increase in raw material prices. Latex prices spiked up from the RM3.50/kg level to RM5.12/kg level on the wintering season and output supply cut, while nitrile prices rose in line with higher crudeoil prices. However, this should be partially offset by a favourable product mix, which should alleviate some ASP pressure and margin compression. Cumulatively, we expect 9MFY16 core net profit to make up around 75% of our fullyear estimates. Page 2 of 8
3 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E 7 June 2016 New plant to fully contribute in FY17 Nearterm volume growth should be underpinned by the addition of a new plant, Factory 27 in Lukut (F27), which is expected to cater exclusively for nitrile gloves with an annual capacity of 2.0bn pieces (4% of total installed capacity). We expect F27 to be commissioned in 4QFY16, and progressive volume growth to kick in from FY17 onwards. Fig 3: Historical capacity (mn) Total annual effective capacity (LHS) Capacity growth % (RHS) Fig 4: Projected effective capacity growth (mn) Annual capacity Capacity growth 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 58,000 56,000 54,000 52,000 50,000 48,000 46,000 44,000 42,000 40,000 Source: Company, Affin Hwang Source: Company, Affin Hwang estimates Top Glove should close FY16 with 26 glove factories with 500 lines and a total installed capacity of 46.6bn pieces p.a. Two more factories are expected to be commissioned in August 2016 and February 2017, respectively. Factory 6 (F6) located in Phuket is set up to produce latex gloves (1.4bn pieces p.a.), while Factory 30 (F30) in Klang would be producing nitrile gloves (4.4bn). All in, this would bring Top Glove s total installed annual capacity to 52.4bn pieces p.a. by FY17, representing capacity growth of 12% yoy. Top Glove has yet to guide on its growth plans beyond FY18. However, we have assumed a 4%, or 2.0bn pieces in average capacity growth in FY19 onwards. We deem our assumption as conservative, as it is still below Top Glove s average annual capacity growth of 6% and global gloves demand growth of 68%. There could be earnings upside should the company embark on any capacity addition above our assumed growth rate. Fig 5: Expansion plans breakdown Location Glove type No. of production lines Capacity (bn pieces p.a.) Current: 25 glove factories Target to commence operations by Expansion: F27 Lukut, Malaysia Nitrile May 2016 F6 Phuket, Latex August 2016 Thailand F30 Klang, Malaysia Nitrile February 2017 Total expansion Total by February % in capacity Source: Company Page 3 of 8
4 Dec10 Mar11 Jun11 Sep11 Dec11 Mar12 Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Dec10 Mar11 Jun11 Sep11 Dec11 Mar12 Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Jan14 Mar14 May14 Jul14 Sep14 Nov14 Jan15 Mar15 May15 Jul15 Sep15 Nov15 Jan16 Mar16 May16 Jan14 Mar14 May14 Jul14 Sep14 Nov14 Jan15 Mar15 May15 Jul15 Sep15 Nov15 Jan16 Mar16 May16 7 June 2016 Raw material prices rose sharply qoq Latex prices have risen sharply (+29% qoq), much to our chagrin. However, the increase was largely seasonallydriven due to the wintering season (February May), where production yields typically fall by as much as 50% from their peak. The wintering season coincided with the concerted effort by the tripartite of major rubber producing countries in Thailand, Indonesia & Malaysia to shore up prices by curbing production. The tripartite has agreed to withdraw 615,000 tonnes of natural rubber from the market for 6 months, effective from March 2016 till August Concerns over limited output as well as expectations of a pickup in demand from China have bolstered prices, which led latex prices to a high of RM5.12/kg in endapril Fig 6: Monthly average latex rawmaterial prices (RM/kg) Fig 7: Monthly average nitrile rawmaterial prices (U$/metric tonne) 1, , , , , , , Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Rally not sustainable We still hold to our view that high latex prices do not appear to be sustainable in the absence of followthrough demand, as highlighted in our previous sector note (see: Stretched year ahead, 14 April 2016). Lingering worries over slowing economic activity in China will likely weigh on latex prices, capping gains. Moreover, with the expiry of the tripartite curb in August 2016, we are likely to continue to see a climb in latex inventory return. Latex and nitrile inventories are still close to multiyear highs (see Fig 8 and 9). The wintering season is also slated to end soon. Possibly taking a cue from oversupply worries, latex prices have lost momentum with the last close at RM4.49/kg, a decline of 12% from the peak. Fig 8: Latex inventory (metric tonnes) 300, , , , ,000 50,000 0 Fig 9: Nitrile inventory (metric tonnes) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Page 4 of 8
5 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 7 June 2016 Growing nitrile mix Recognising the importance of nitrile gloves, Top Glove has been ramping up its nitrile volume in a bid to capture market share from more established players like Hartalega (HART MK, RM4.09, HOLD) and Kossan Rubber (KRI MK, RM6.54, HOLD). Top Glove s nitrile volume clocked in an incremental growth of more than 600% over a 6year period, as nitrile contribution increased from 11% to 32% in 1HFY16. This however, still pales in comparison with Hartalega (95% nitrile) and Kossan (70% nitrile). Management has guided that it will continue to add nitrile capacity and targets a balanced mix of 50% for nitrile gloves, in line with market demand. Fig 10: Growing nitrile contribution Latex Nitrile Others 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 1HFY16 Source: Company Fig 11: 1HFY16 product mix Source: Company Surgical 2% Vinyl 7% Latex powder free 20% Nitrile 32% Latex powdered 39% Gradual margin expansion Nonetheless, the slower expansion also means Top Glove is relatively insulated from the margin compression arising from the ASP pressure that most nitrile glove makers are facing currently. While management has guided for a longterm EBITDA margin of 18%, we take a slightly more bullish stance in the near term as incremental nitrile volume growth and productivity gains should sustain margins. We expect Top Glove s EBITDA margin to normalise in the region of 2022% for FY1618E, after hitting a high mark in 1H FY16 of 24% (+8ppt yoy), bucking the trend of its peers. Better profitability profile Top Glove s profitability profile has improved significantly and narrowed the gap with sector leaders Hartalega and Kossan. Based on the table below, we observed that Top Glove margins have generally increased in line with a higher nitrile contribution in its mix. Despite the ASP pressure, Top Glove should be able to sustain its margins on a favourable product mix and incremental nitrile volume growth. Fig 12: Top Glove EBITDA margin trending up Fig 13: Historical quarterly financial performance (%) Top Glove Hartalega Supermax Kossan (RMm) Revenue (LHS) EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin % (RHS) Source: Companies, Affin Hwang Source: Company, Affin Hwang Page 5 of 8
6 7 June 2016 Top Glove remains our top sector pick We continue to favour Top Glove as our sector top pick, mainly premised on its: (i) undemanding valuation at a CY16E PER of 15x, compared to the sector leaders Hartalega (24x) and Kossan (21x); (ii) incremental nitrile volume growth to alleviate margin pressure; and (iii) ongoing productivity gains. Top Glove also offers the highest CY16E dividend yield (3.4%) among Rubber Products stocks under our coverage backed by highest ROE (23%). We reaffirm our BUY call on Top Glove and 12month target price of RM7.17, based on a CY16E PER of 21x, which is pegged to +1SD above its past3year mean PER. A key risk to our call would be currency volatility as most of Top Glove s sales receipts are denominated in US$. Fig 14: Peers comparison Company Ticker Rating Price TP Mkt Cap Core EPS growth (%) Core PE (x) Div Yield (%) ROE (%) (RM) (RM) (RMm) CY16E CY17E CY16E CY17E CY16E CY17E CY16E CY17E Hartalega HART MK HOLD , Kossan KRI MK HOLD , Supermax SUCB MK BUY , Top Glove TOPG MK BUY , Sector (exkarex) NEUTRAL 18, Source: Bloomberg, Affin Hwang forecasts; based on prices as of close on 6 June 2016 Page 6 of 8
7 7 June 2016 Top Glove FINANCIAL SUMMARY Profit & Loss Statement Key Financial Ratios and Margins FYE 31 Aug (RMm) 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E FYE 31 Aug (RMm) 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenue 2, , , , ,312.6 Growth Operating expenses (2,010.0) (2,075.6) (2,270.3) (2,470.6) (2,651.5) Revenue (%) (1.6) EBITDA EBITDA (%) (3.9) Depreciation (90.9) (98.1) (110.4) (119.9) (129.5) Core net profit (%) (6.8) EBIT Net interest income/(expense Profitability Associates' contribution 3.3 (11.7) (3.6) (3.6) (3.6) EBITDA margin (%) EI PBT margin (%) Pretax profit Net profit margin (%) Tax (32.7) (82.3) (105.9) (110.2) (112.5) Effective tax rate (%) Minority interest (3.0) (1.4) (1.4) (1.4) (1.4) ROA (%) Net profit Core ROE (%) ROCE (%) Balance Sheet Statement Dividend payout ratio (%) FYE 31 Aug (RMm) 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E PPE , , , ,121.9 Liquidity Other noncurrent assets Current ratio (x) Total noncurrent assets 1, , , , ,305.0 Op. cash flow (RMm) Cash and equivalents Free cashflow (RMm) Inventory FCF/share (sen) Trade receivables Other current assets Asset management Total current assets , , , ,073.6 Inventory turnover (days) Trade payables Receivables turnover (day Short term borrowings Payables turnover (days) Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Capital structure Long term borrowings Net Gearing (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash Other long term liabilities Interest Cover (x) na na na na na Total long term liabilities Shareholders' Funds 1, , , , ,261.0 Cash Flow Statement FYE 31 Aug (RMm) 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E PAT Depreciation & amortisation (90.9) (98.1) (110.4) (119.9) (129.5) Working capital changes 58.7 (44.8) (60.3) (40.1) (35.3) Others Cashflow from operations Capex (192.2) (205.6) (150.0) (150.0) (150.0) Others (68.1) (296.2) Cash flow from investing (260.3) (501.8) (150.0) (150.0) (150.0) Debt raised/(repaid) Equity raised/(repaid) Dividends paid (99.3) (105.0) (211.8) (220.3) (225.1) Others Cash flow from financing (211.8) (220.3) (225.1) Free Cash Flow Source: Company, Affin Hwang forecasts Page 7 of 8
8 7 June 2016 Equity Rating Structure and Definitions BUY Total return is expected to exceed +10% over a 12month period HOLD Total return is expected to be between 5% and +10% over a 12month period SELL Total return is expected to be below 5% over a 12month period NOT RATED Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad does not provide research coverage or rating for this company. Report is intended as information only and not as a recommendation The total expected return is defined as the percentage upside/downside to our target price plus the net dividend yield over the next 12 months. OVERWEIGHT Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to outperform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months NEUTRAL Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe, is expected to perform inline with the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months UNDERWEIGHT Industry, as defined by the analyst s coverage universe is expected to underperform the KLCI benchmark over the next 12 months This report is intended for information purposes only and has been prepared by Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389U) (formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Berhad) ( the Company ) based on sources believed to be reliable. However, such sources have not been independently verified by the Company, and as such the Company does not give any guarantee, representation or warranty (express or implied) as to the adequacy, accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in this report. Facts, information, views and/or opinion presented in this report have not been reviewed by, may not reflect information known to, and may present a differing view expressed by other business units within the Company, including investment banking personnel. Reports issued by the Company, are prepared in accordance with the Company s policies for managing conflicts of interest arising as a result of publication and distribution of investment research reports. Under no circumstances shall the Company, its associates and/or any person related to it be liable in any manner whatsoever for any consequences (including but are not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profit and damages) arising from the use of or reliance on the information and/or opinion provided or rendered in this report. Any opinions or estimates in this report are that of the Company, as of this date and subject to change without prior notice. Under no circumstances shall this report be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. The Company and/or any of its directors and/or employees may have an interest in the securities mentioned therein. The Company may also make investment decisions or take proprietary positions that are inconsistent with the recommendations or views in this report. Comments and recommendations stated here rely on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations. These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return preferences and hence an independent evaluation is essential. Investors are advised to independently evaluate particular investments and strategies and to seek independent financial, legal and other advice on the information and/or opinion contained in this report before investing or participating in any of the securities or investment strategies or transactions discussed in this report. Thirdparty data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to such data. The Company s research, or any portion thereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the consent of the Company. The Company, is a participant of the Capital Market Development FundBursa Research Scheme, and will receive compensation for the participation. This report is printed and published by: Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad (14389U) (formerly known as HwangDBS Investment Bank Berhad) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd Chulan Tower Branch, 3rd Floor, Chulan Tower, No 3, Jalan Conlay, Kuala Lumpur. research@affinhwang.com Tel : Fax : Page 8 of 8
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