II. Country Economic Profiles: Ethiopia, Tanzania, Zambia, China and Vietnam

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1 II. Country Economic Profiles: Ethiopia, Tanzania, Zambia, China and Vietnam 50

2 II.1. Ethiopia II.1.1. Growth and Structure Ethiopia, with a population of 81 million and per capita income (at market prices) of US$280 in 2008, is one of Africa s poorest economies. However, from 2002 to 2008 Ethiopian GDP grew at a very rapid rate of over 8 percent per annum well above the average of 6 percent for Sub Saharan Africa due to increased public investment, commercialization of agriculture and private sector expansion. Growth of the broad industrial sector and the services sector has recently exceeded 9 percent per annum, while manufacturing has achieved over 7 percent per annum. Export growth has been very rapid, at around 20 percent per annum, but comparable with other African countries. Despite steady diversification, the output structure remains typical of a poorer developing economy in early transition. In terms of GDP contribution, agriculture accounts for 44 percent, industry 13 percent, manufacturing 5 percent and services 42 percent. There has been a rising contribution from the service sectors, industry and exports. Nevertheless, manufacturing per se has remained at a low share of GDP over the period 1995 to 2005, and the textiles and clothing sector in particular has suffered a decline, losing half its share of manufacturing output over the period. Agricultural processing also has fallen. On the other hand, Ethiopia has made progress in diversifying its export base (e.g., flowers and oil seeds). Ethiopia s Doing Business ranking in 2010 is 107 th out of 181, a slight improvement over The relatively low ranking is mainly due to problems with access to finance, cross-border trade barriers and investor protection. Ethiopia also ranked 121 st on the WEF Global Competitiveness Index (2009). II.1.2. Impact of the Crisis After six years of strong growth, in 2008 high domestic demand and sharply higher commodity and food prices, followed by the global recession and fall in export demand, created a balance of payments problem and caused a jump in inflation. Output and foreign exchange reserves fell and the government had to institute an adjustment program. As a result of the reversal of food price increases in late 2008, inflation dropped back to single digits. In 2009, lack of rain affected agricultural production, but growth has started to recover, with the help of aid flows and restored exports combined with a steady devaluation of the currency. Nevertheless, there remains a large current account and fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP, financed largely by foreign aid. 51

3 II.1.3. Main Issues Although Ethiopia has made progress in growing and diversifying processed exports, volume remains relatively low and the economy remains dependent on primary products. Financial intermediation remains weak and higher domestic savings and investment are needed in addition to steps to enhance competitiveness. Rapid expansion of private banks has occurred in somewhat adverse conditions. The economy is highly vulnerable to regular droughts, international commodity price increases and global recession. Exchange liberalization would improve access for the private sector and reduce the problems arising from the dual exchange market. The IMF has recommended continued improvements in the investment climate and privatization. The country is in the process of carrying out a structural reform program with the World Bank. II.2. Tanzania II.2.1. Growth and Structure Tanzania, with a population of 44 million and per capita income (at market prices) of about US$500, is one of Africa s poorest economies. Growth over as in many African countries was relatively rapid, ranging from 5 to 7 percent per annum, with 7 percent from 2002 to However, there was only a small decline in poverty incidence, from 35.7 percent in 2001 to 33.5 percent in The structure of GDP is shown in Table 7. Table 7: GDP per Sector, Tanzania Agriculture 29.5% 26.6% Industry 20.6% 22.6% Of which Manufacturing Services 49.3% 50.8% Source: World Bank The main feature of the GDP sector distribution is the relative stagnation of manufacturing within the industrial sector over the past ten years or so. The services sector dominates as in the case of a transitioning economy, but with a relatively weak manufacturing sector. Despite the recession that started in late 2008, better rains and continued economic momentum contributed to robust economic growth (7 percent of GDP). Overall, Tanzania has maintained a solid record of macroeconomic stability. Fiscal policy, while strongly expansionary since 2000 on the back of a large increase in foreign aid, has remained under control. 52

4 The most rapid sectoral growth has been in mining, construction and communications, which averaged about 10 percent per annum or higher over Agriculture (4.4 percent) was at the low end and manufacturing (7.8 percent) was in the middle of the range. Agriculture s share of GDP continued a steady decline. The share of manufacturing stagnated while construction rose. The broad services sector rose to 50 percent. Utilities maintained their share. The value of traditional exports declined following a decline in the export volumes of all traditional cash crops as a result of a decline in domestic production. The real effective exchange rate, which was overvalued at the beginning of the decade, fell to a more competitive level. However, the current account deficit (excluding grants) has widened significantly over the past few years and is more dependent on FDI flows. The deficit in 2010 was equivalent to 11.2 percent of GDP compared to 13.5 percent of GDP in 2008/09. II.2.2. Impact of the Crisis Tanzania suffered from the effects of the crisis in terms of decline in foreign direct investment, tourism, exports of minerals and manufactured goods (especially textiles and leather), credit to private sector and government revenue collection. Agro-processing such as coffee, cotton and floriculture also suffered from low prices and weak export demand. Up to the outbreak of the global crisis in 2008, exports of both goods and services as a percentage of GDP were rising and the current account deficit before grants had declined significantly. Nevertheless, the government took steps to stabilize demand (including tax cuts, royalty exemptions, bank loan guarantees, and borrowing from the Central Bank), which prevented a major slippage in growth. Real GDP grew in 2009 at 6 percent, lower than 7.4 percent in 2008, but at a higher rate than comparable African economies. Traditional exports increased to $470.8 million in 2009, from $418.4 million in 2008, as the agricultural sector recorded a bumper harvest, while cement production increased by 7.4 percent in the first three quarters of 2009 compared with Likewise, the production index in the manufacturing industry for the first three quarters of 2009 increased by 27.3 percent compared with II.2.3. Main Issues Over the past five to six years, the government has made significant efforts to improve the business environment through reforms in labor regulations, land rights, business 53

5 registration and licensing, tax administration and the financial sector. 12 While tax and financial sector reforms have progressed, other business environment reforms have lagged behind, and some measures with respect to market regulations, foreign direct investment and the minimum wage may have been inconsistent with sustained reform. The 2007 World Bank Investment Climate Assessment reveals that while large firm productivity is comparable to neighboring countries, small firms are not doing well, indicating that excessive regulation might be favoring larger and better connected firms. The Investment Climate Assessment reveals that, overall, infrastructure bottlenecks are still a serious constraint, and while some sectors such as roads and energy are gradually improving their performance and institutional setup, others such as the port, railways and water sectors are still underperforming. Tanzania is one of the more difficult countries in which to conduct business. Its Doing Business rank is 128 th out of 183 economies, having slipped slightly between 2010 and Out of nine indicators, its main strength is in contract enforcement, while it is particularly weak in construction permits and property registration (Table 8). Table 8: Doing Business Index, Tanzania DB 2010 Rank DB 2011 Rank Change in Rank Starting a Business No change Dealing with Construction Permits No change Registering Property Getting Credit Protecting Investors Paying Taxes Trading Across Borders Enforcing Contracts No change Closing a Business Source: World Bank The factors behind Tanzania s Starting a Business ranking of 122 nd out 183 countries are noted in Table 9. Table 9: Starting a Business, Tanzania Tanzania Sub-Saharan Africa OECD Procedures (number) Time (days) Cost (% of income per capita) Paid-in Minimum Capital (% of income per capita) Source: World Bank 12 International Development Association, United Republic of Tanzania: seventh poverty reduction support credit, May 11,

6 Tanzania s World Economic Forum Competitiveness Index has also been well down the international rankings, at 113 th out of 139 countries, with an average score of 3.6 on a scale of 1 to 7 (Table 10). Table 10: Global Competitiveness Index Rank and Score, Tanzania Basic requirements st pillar: Institutions nd pillar: Infrastructure rd pillar: Macroeconomic environment th pillar: Health and primary education Efficiency enhancers th pillar: Higher education and training th pillar: Goods market efficiency th pillar: Labor market efficiency th pillar: Financial market development th pillar: Technological readiness th pillar: Market size Innovation and sophistication factors th pillar: Business sophistication th pillar: Innovation Source: The Global Competitiveness Report , c2010 World Economic Forum Tanzania s relative position both in terms of its Doing Business environment and its global competitiveness remains weak, especially in the property development area, while its global competitiveness is also adversely affected by poor infrastructure services and relatively weak higher education and technological capacity, although primary education and labor market are strong areas. Going forward the priority has to be in terms of increasing the productivity of labor and maintaining competitive wage rates while reducing relative costs of infrastructure services and easing the impediments to business startup. II.3. Zambia II.3.1. Growth and Structure Zambia has a population of 13.9 million and GNI per capita of US$ Poverty, at a rate of 64 percent, remains a significant problem despite relatively rapid economic growth in the past few years. The country s rank in the UN Human Development Index is 165 out of 177 countries. Its per capita income is still well below that at independence 13 World Bank 55

7 in From 2004, there has been a decline in urban poverty but a slight increase in rural poverty. After decades of declining standards of living, per capita incomes started rising in the late 1990s, accompanied by productivity improvement. The improved macroeconomic environment during the 1990s was a major factor behind the improvement in the business environment, with inflation falling from over 180 percent in the early 1990s to single digits and the budget deficit halved as a share of GDP between 2003 and Real GDP growth rates for Zambia were on par with other sub-saharan African countries as the country recovered from the stagnation of the 1980s and 1990s. Growth has averaged 6 percent since 2005, and estimates are for a 2010 growth rate of 7.1 percent. 14 Between 2000 and 2008, there was a major rise in industry share. However, otherwise the economy is characterized by the typical shift to services during transition. Rapid industrial production growth (reaching 12.1 percent per annum) has been led by a significant increase in mining output. With inadequate investment and low world prices, mining declined during the 1990s while under state ownership. Privatization, together with rising prices, resulted in increased investment and production, excepting for the slippage during Table 11: GDP per Sector, Zambia Agriculture 19.9% 19.7% Industry 27.5% 32.4% Of which Manufacturing Services 46.7% 47.9% Source: World Bank PRSC Program Document March 2010 Annex 5 and World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index Within the industrial sector, apart from mining the major contributor to GDP is the food, beverages and tobacco subsector, followed by electricity, gas and water. Textiles, leather industries, and wood and wood products subsectors each contributed about 1 percent to GDP in Incentives in agriculture have resulted in increased production of maize and cotton, with a bumper harvest in 2008 and Construction has been stimulated by strong demand for housing. However, there has been a deceleration in manufacturing, and, overall, the contribution of manufacturing to GDP has remained flat despite a government policy of diversification to increase value added. 14 Bank of Zambia, 2011, Monetary Policy Statement 56

8 Exports still depend largely on mining, of which two-thirds is copper/cobalt, but nontraditional exports such as copper wire, electricity, tobacco, lint cotton, electric cables and fresh flowers have grown. Over the country nearly doubled the number of export products, with the share of the five largest exports falling from 96 percent to about 80 percent. Food and farm products exports increased from 4 percent of the total in 1980s to 20 percent in the early 2000s. Even small-scale farmers have diversified, for example into horticulture. Mining also has diversified from copper into other metals and precious stones. Between 1995 and 2002, other base metals increased from 2 percent to 15 percent of total exports. In addition, growth has been driven by strong expansions in services and construction. Growth of services was mainly driven by community and social services, real estate, business services and wholesale and retail distribution. Large increases in foreign direct investment accompanied the boom in the mining sector, although it decreased in agriculture, tourism and transport. II.3.2. Impact of the Crisis The global financial crisis impacted the country primarily through the copper mining sector, as the price of copper and its global demand fell during Mining companies reacted to the global crisis by cutting jobs and revising contracts with supplier companies. The crisis also reduced foreign direct investment inflows, apart from some Chinese investment. However, the large investment in the mining sector after privatization and the higher general level of copper prices helped the economy to absorb the shock. Since 2005, the balance of payments has been overall positive and improving due to capital inflows, but it worsened in 2008 with the global crisis. A trade and current account deficit has persisted, but the favorable 2010 maize crop has helped recovery of the economy and the current account deficit has narrowed. At the end of 2010 copper prices were about double those of 2005, having largely recovered from the 2008 dip. In conjunction with the price rise, the effective real exchange rate has risen by about 75 percent since 2005, although it has not risen greatly post-crisis. 15 The post crisis scenario is for real GDP growth to be at 6.5 percent over the medium term. Growth will be driven by a recovery in the tertiary sector, continued increases in mining and construction activities, depending on the realization of economic diversification, and enhanced competitiveness. Additionally, growth will be boosted by new investments in mining and electricity generation. 15 IMF 57

9 II.3.3. Main Issues While Zambia has diversified its exports (non-traditional export earnings doubled from US$471 million in 2004 to US$933 million in 2008), it still depends largely on primary products, mainly copper and cobalt, and remains highly vulnerable to fluctuations in the prices of these minerals. A well-known result of a single highly valuable resource within an otherwise low-income economy is its effect in raising overall relative domestic costs and the real exchange rate. Accordingly, the copper sector has helped over time to create a relatively high wage economy, which seems to have impeded the growth of domestic resource intensive output in agriculture and light manufacturing. The recent copper boom may have caused further changes in the production structure to reduce long-run growth. 16 The real appreciation of the domestic currency has shown signs of reducing international competitiveness in sectors such as in agriculture, agroprocessing and light manufacturing, especially manufacturing whose exports decreased, with textiles stagnant. Studies have projected that a long term increase in the RER would create competitive pressures to favor increased mechanization using cheap imported equipment at the expense of local labor and would reduce export agriculture, especially cotton, tobacco and horticulture. Floriculture, because of its low domestic cost component, is likely to face less pressure from a strong currency. Offsetting this, rising copper production has created forward linkages to semi-finished and finished non-ferrous metals, finished metals and other engineering products. As a result of rapid privatization, the economy is now private sector driven, but participation in the formal economy remains limited. Most enterprises remain small because of management constraints and limited access to finance, and the vast majority of business enterprises still operate in the informal sector. High costs of infrastructure inputs into production, including energy, transport, telecom, water and also high cost services such as insurance, marketing and professional services undermine Zambia s competitiveness and limit job creation and productivity. For Zambia to stay competitive and sustain the growth momentum, it will be critical to improve the productivity of its services. Zambia s World Bank Doing Business Index overall ranking for 2011 is 76th out of 183, an eight-point improvement in rank over The improvement is a result of 16 Massimiliano Calì and Dirk Willem te Velde, Is Zambia contracting Dutch Disease? ODI working paper No. 279, February

10 sustained effort by the Government to improve the regulatory environment for business. The reforms have addressed the issues that relate to ease of starting a business, registering property and obtaining credit. While construction permits and cross border trade are still problematic, tax administration and access to credit now are rated as particularly good by world standards (Table 12). Table 12: Doing Business Index, Zambia Topic DB 2010 Rank DB 2011 Rank Change in Rank Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Registering Property Getting Credit Protecting Investors Paying Taxes Trading Across Borders Enforcing Contracts Closing a Business Source: World Bank Doing Business 2011 Zambia s Starting a Business ranking for 2011was 57 th out of 183; a substantial improvement from 2010 compared to other African countries (Table 13). Table 13: Starting a Business Index, Zambia Indicator Zambia Sub-Saharan Africa OECD Procedures (number) Time (days) Cost (% of income per capita) Paid-in Minimum Capital (% of income per capita) Source: World Bank Doing Business 2011 On the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index, however, Zambia ranked only 115 in 2010 out of 139 countries, dropping from 112 in 2009 (Table 14)

11 Table 14: Global Competitiveness Index Rank and Score, Zambia Total GCI Basic requirement st pillar: Institutions nd pillar: Infrastructure rd pillar: Macroeconomic environment th pillar: Health and primary education Efficiency enhancers th pillar: Higher education and training th pillar: Goods market efficiency th pillar: Labor market efficiency th pillar: Financial market development th pillar: Technological readiness th pillar: Market size Innovation and sophistication factors th pillar: Business sophistication th pillar: Innovation 80 3 Source: The Global Competitiveness Report , c2010 World Economic Forum Despite the country s efforts to improve the Doing Business conditions, its competitiveness still is weak, mainly because of infrastructure deficiencies (relative to its large land area), the small size of its domestic market and the low level of technological capacity, although its improving product and financial market efficiency are positive factors. Regarding the labor market, the upward pressure of long term increasing copper prices on prevailing wage rates may impede efforts to reduce domestic costs adequately to sustain competitiveness in agriculture and labor intensive manufacturing, unless measures can be taken to offset these effects. II.4. China II.4.1. Growth and Structure China has the world s largest single country population of 1.35 billion with a per capita GNI of US$2,940 at market prices (2008). The Chinese economy has experienced remarkable growth and diversification over the past several decades and has averaged growth over 10 percent per annum in real terms since 2005, emerging as a middle income economy. Output growth by major sectors over was in agriculture (4.4 percent), industry (11.7 percent), manufacturing (11.6 percent) and services (10.7 percent). The structure of the economy in 2008 showed agriculture at 11 percent of GDP, industry at 49 percent, manufacturing at 34 percent and services at 40 percent, reflecting the rapid transition out of primary production. In terms of aggregate GDP at market prices, China has now overtaken Japan. Export expansion has started to level off after years of rapid 60

12 growth. Savings and investment have fuelled the growth at extraordinary high rates of up to 50 percent of GDP. Recorded unemployment and inflation remain low, accompanied by fiscal balance. The trade surplus has moderated to around 4 percent of GDP after reaching 9 percent in The real effective exchange rate has appreciated steadily, averaging about 5 percent per annum against the US Dollar over this period. Despite its remarkable economic growth, China s ranking on the World Bank s Doing Business index is 86th out of 181, a slight decline from The surprisingly low ranking results mainly from relative difficulty in starting businesses, employment regulations and obtaining construction permits. In other areas such as trade barriers, registering property and enforcing contracts it ranks highly. II.4.2. Impact of the Crisis China was hit hard by the 2008 global financial crisis largely through a drop in exports accompanied by a rise in imports. However, the government took effective action through a major fiscal stimulus concentrated in infrastructure spending, a massive credit expansion and re-pegging of the currency to the US Dollar. (Since 2005, the currency had been appreciating against the US Dollar at up to a peak rate of 1 percent per month). Growth recovered in 2009 to 9.1 percent and the government started to phase out its crisis response measures including a return to a managed floating exchange rate in June While over the crisis period the trade surplus was considerably reduced, it is likely that the surplus will re-expand, and the income from China s huge foreign asset holdings will further increase the current account position. However, structural reforms, rising wages and currency appreciation will boost consumption and tend to limit the increase. II.4.3. Main Issues The Chinese economy has low vulnerability even in the face of a further trade crisis due to its enormous production momentum, attraction as an investment destination, large current account surplus and currency reserves. The future movement of the Chinese currency, the RMB, is of special importance to the prospects for competing economies. The IMF and the government have divergent views on whether the currency is undervalued. The IMF considers it to be undervalued because a) international reserves are most likely to continue to accumulate, b) the real exchange rate is close to the level of the late 1990s even though China s productivity has increased, and c) China s current account is set to return to a sizable surplus. The appreciation of the real exchange rate and increased real wages are important to rebalancing the economy toward domestic consumption and increase demand for imports from other regions including Africa. 61

13 II.5. Vietnam II.5.1. Growth and Structure Vietnam, with a population of 86 million and per capita GNI at market prices of US$890 per annum, has emerged from relative poverty following the adoption of a series of economic reforms from the 1990s. Poverty had fallen rapidly from 58 percent of the population in 1993 to only 14.5 percent by The economy grew rapidly from 1999 at an average rate of over 8 percent per annum, fuelled by high savings and investment of nearly 40 percent of GDP. Over the period , industrial production growth averaged 15 percent. The structure of national output in 2008 reflected an economy transitioning out of agriculture. Of total GDP, agriculture comprised 22.1 percent, broad industry 39.7 percent, manufacturing 21.1 percent and services 38.2 percent. In 2008, GDP growth dropped to 6 percent as a result of the effects of the financial crisis, associated in particular with a downturn in the property market which more than offset a rise in agriculture production. Industrial production also contracted, especially in the foreign investment sector. Inflation, which generally has been around 8 percent per annum, peaked at 20 percent in 2008 due to commodity price hikes in the first part of the year and other destabilizing factors, notably the effects of large capital inflows in 2007, which led to excessive domestic expenditure. Despite a near balance in trade over 2005 and 2006 and strong export growth, imports surged in 2007, and there was a significant current account deficit (9 percent of GDP in 2007) which worsened in 2008 due to high global commodity prices. The deficit has been financed by significant capital inflows, especially foreign direct investment (FDI). Due to the country s capacity to raise trade and oil taxes as well as capital revenue, fiscal balance generally has been close to achievement, with an official balance of 0 percent to 4 percent deficit over several years, (total deficit including off-budget items was nearer 5 percent on average) peaking in Vietnam s ranking on the World Bank Doing Business Index is 93 rd out of 181. Investor protection and tax administration are relatively problematic, while access to finance, property registration and enforcement of contracts are relatively easy. II.5.2. Impact of the Crisis The global financial crisis led to a slowdown of economic growth in Vietnam. Export orders for garments and other main industrial products collapsed in the fourth quarter and a slowdown in manufacturing occurred. The crisis affected not only exports 62

14 but also private remittances and FDI. The stock market declined sharply. The impact was acute in the first quarter of 2009 when GDP growth fell to 3.1 percent, more than 4 percentage points below the historic trend. The government adopted a stabilization policy consisting of the tightening of banking credit and monitoring of vulnerable banks, postponement of public investment projects, cuts in recurrent expenditures and temporary interventions in international trade. II.5.3. Main Issues Vietnam faces a short-term risk of continued reduction in exports and private remittances, especially if combined with reduced capital inflow. However, the economy remains an attractive destination for foreign investors. In the view of the World Bank, provided that the government maintains sound macroeconomic policies and continues reforms to enhance Vietnam s competitiveness, real GDP growth is expected to rise to recover to 7 percent per annum from 2011 on with a smaller current account deficit as export growth and private remittances recover while capital inflows are also expected to pick up as investor confidence recovers. II.6. Conclusions For the purposes of the competitiveness study, the key conclusions from the above brief analysis concern the ability of the five economies to return to the growth rates experienced from 2002 to 2008, the relative increase in their productive efficiencies in the medium term and the extent to which key parameters such as exchange rates move in accordance with the economic fundamentals. Early signs are of a return to growth in all five economies, but the African economies are clearly more vulnerable to risk of a further downturn. If China acts to rebalance its economy, increasing domestic consumption and reducing its trade surplus as a result of rising real wages, while permitting the real RMB rate to appreciate, then African manufacturing may be in a steadily better position on the world market as its relative unit labor costs decline. But, the rate of improvement is highly speculative at this stage. Furthermore, whereas Ethiopian labor costs are relatively low and at competitive levels, Tanzanian real wages are higher and Zambian levels appear to be partly dependent on wages in the copper sector which are high and will increase steadily if world demand for metals rises over the long term. Thus, if Vietnam recovers its growth rate and maintains increases in relative production efficiencies, then Vietnam, rather than Tanzania or Zambia, may be the earlier beneficiary of China s expected structural changes. In fact, in the medium-term it is emerging economies such as Vietnam that may prove to be the key competitors for early transition economies in Africa. 63

15 On the side of Tanzania, Zambia and Ethiopia, reducing relative production costs is critical. This includes reduction of material wastage and labor absenteeism, improvement in quality and increases in domestic value added shares. Apart from improving these efficiencies within the internal supply chain for domestic and export products, which is the key concern of this study, these countries also must make relative progress in establishing new industries or reestablishing former production such as textiles through improvements in external infrastructure (e.g., better road conditions and electric power availability), reductions in the costs of doing business and strengthening of private sector initiative in export diversification. However, currently both Tanzania and Ethiopia have relatively weak environments for business (especially in areas such as industrial property development, access to finance, and cross-border trade barriers) and, while Zambia has substantially improved its business environment, it is facing serious issues of competitiveness, which must be addressed. 64

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