Analyst s Handbook: Industrials

Transcription

1 Analyst s Handbook: Industrials April, Dr. Edward Yardeni eyardeni@ Mali Quintana aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Table Of Contents Table Of Contents S&P Industrials 1 S&P : Industrials 2 S&P : Industrials (cont) 3-4 S&P /4/6 Industrials YTD -6 Earnings 7 Revenues & Margins 8 Earnings Growth & Valuation 9 April, / Analyst s Handbook: Industrials www.

3 7 9 Figure 1. S&P INDUSTRIALS STOCK PRICE INDEX* S&P Industrials 4/ day moving average. * Ratio scale. Source: Standard & Poor s and Haver Analytics..3 Figure /13. S&P INDUSTRIALS (as a ratio of S&P ) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Monthly through December 199, then weekly. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 1 / April, / Analyst s Handbook: Industrials www.

4 S&P : Industrials 7 6 Figure 3. S&P INDUSTRIALS 4/ S&P CONSTRUCTION & ENGINEERING (FLR JEC PWR) / S&P AEROSPACE & DEFENSE (ARNC BA COL GD LLL LMT NOC RTN TDG TXT UTX) 4/ S&P CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY & HEAVY TRUCKS (CAT CMI PCAR) 4/ S&P BUILDING PRODUCTS (ALLE AOS FBHS JCI MAS) 4/ S&P ELECTRICAL COMPONENTS & EQUIPMENT (AME AYI EMR ETN ROK) 4/ day moving average S&P COMMERCIAL PRINTING Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. (RRD) 12/ day moving average Source: Standard and Poor s Corporation. Page 2 / April, / Analyst s Handbook: Industrials www.

5 S&P : Industrials (cont) Figure 4. S&P ENVIRONMENTAL & FACILITIES SERVICES (RSG SRCL WM) 4/ S&P INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY (DOV FLS FTV IR ITW PH PNR SNA SWK XYL) 4/ S&P HUMAN RESOURCE & EMPLOYMENT SERVICES (RHI) S&P OFFICE SERVICES & SUPPLIES (PBI) / 1 7 2/ S&P INDUSTRIAL CONGLOMERATES (GE HON MMM ROP) S&P TRADING COMPANIES & DISTRIBUTORS (FAST GWW URI) 4/ 6 3 4/ day moving average Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 3 / April, / Analyst s Handbook: Industrials www.

6 S&P : Industrials (cont) Figure. S&P TRANSPORTATION INDEX 4/ S&P AIRLINES (AAL ALK DAL LUV UAL) / S&P AIR FREIGHT & LOGISTICS (CHRW EXPD FDX UPS) 4/ S&P RAILROADS (CSX KSU NSC UNP) 4/ day moving average Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 4 / April, / Analyst s Handbook: Industrials www.

7 S&P /4/6 Industrials YTD All Sectors Industrials Sector Aerospace & Defense Air Freight & Logistics Airlines Figure. S&P LargeCap S&P 4 MidCap S&P 6 SmallCap Building Products Commercial Printing Commercial Printing Construction & Engineering Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks Diversified Support Services Electrical Components & Equipment Source: Standard & Poor s. Page / April, / Analyst s Handbook: Industrials www.

8 S&P /4/6 Industrials YTD Figure 6. S&P LargeCap 6 S&P 4 MidCap 6 S&P 6 SmallCap Environmental & Facilities Services Human Resource & Employment Services Industrial Conglomerates Industrial Machinery Office Services & Office Supplies Services & Supplies Railroads Trading Companies & Distributors Jul Aug Sep Source: Standard & Poor s. Page 6 / April, / Analyst s Handbook: Industrials www.

9 Earnings Figure 8. S&P INDUSTRIALS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) / Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward earnings* * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, then weekly. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 4 Figure 9. S&P INDUSTRIALS NET EARNINGS REVISIONS* 4 3 Mar NERI Jan 17.3 Feb 27.8 Mar * Three-month moving average of the number of forward earnings estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of forward earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 7 / April, / Analyst s Handbook: Industrials www.

10 4 Figure. S&P INDUSTRIALS REVENUES PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Revenues & Margins Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward revenues* / * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, then weekly. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 11 Figure 11. S&P INDUSTRIALS PROJECTED PROFIT MARGIN (using analysts average earnings and revenues forecasts) / Consensus Forecasts Annual estimates Forward profit margin* (.1) * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 8 / April, / Analyst s Handbook: Industrials www.

11 Figure 12. S&P INDUSTRIALS LTEG VS STEG (percent) Earnings Growth & Valuation 4/12 LTEG* (14.6) STEG* (16.1) * STEG: 12- month (2-week) forward consensus expected earnings growth. LTEG: -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Monthly data through, then weekly. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Figure 13. S&P INDUSTRIALS VALUATION 4/12 Forward P/E* (16.) Relative P/E** (1.) PEG Ratio*** (1.1) / * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P forward P/E. *** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to sector or industry consensus -year LTEG forecast. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 9 / April, / Analyst s Handbook: Industrials www.

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