Company Research. Asian Paints Ltd Domestic paints volumes disappoint. Investment Overview: Date:

Transcription

1 Asian Paints Ltd Domestic paints volumes disappoint Date: Investment Overview: Asian Paints is India s largest paint company & Asia s third largest paint company, with a turnover of Rs Mn. Asian Paints has been included for the first time in Forbes Asia s Fab 50 List of companies. The capacity expansion from 1,50,000 KL p.a. to 2,00,000 KL p.a. at the Company s plant at Rohtak, Haryana was commissioned during the quarter. The company s Decorative Paints business segment contributes around 94% in the total paint business. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 17% and 14% over 2011 to 2014E respectively. Asian Paints, the group operates around the world through its subsidiaries Berger International Limited, Apco Coatings, SCIB Paints and Taubmans. Shareholders Information Date 29-August-12 CMP (Rs) Year Price Var% Week High (Rs) Week Low (Rs) Industry PE Share Holding Pattern As on 30th June 2012 Promoters 52.79% FII 18.08% DII 8.70% Others 20.43% Total % Stock Performance (1 year) Research Associate: Pooja Jain Pooja.jain@frrshares.com, Tel:

2 COMPANY BACKGROUND: Asian Paints is India s largest paint company and Asia s third largest paint company, with a turnover of Rs Mn.. The group has an enviable reputation in the corporate world for professionalism, fast track growth, and building shareholder equity. Asian Paints operates in 22 countries and has 27 paint manufacturing facilities in the world servicing consumers in over 65 countries. Besides Asian Paints, the group operates around the world through its subsidiaries Berger International Limited, Apco Coatings, SCIB Paints and Taubmans. The capacity expansion from 1,50,000 KL per annum to 2,00,000 KL per annum at the Company's plant at Rohtak, Haryana has been commissioned in April, Business Segments Company business is divided mainly into two segments as follows: Paints Segment This is the primary business of the company. Out of the total revenue earned by the group 9% is generated from this segment. This segment is divided into two. Decorative Paints: Decorative Paints business contributes around 94% in the total paint business. It has 5 manufacturing plants operating all over the country, which is strategically located in-order to cater to market. In Decorative paint segment, the Company operates in four main segments i.e. interior wall finish, Exterior wall finish, Enamels and Wood Finishes. Besides, the company outsources around 25-30% of its total production. Decorative paints segment constitute around 72% of the paint market in India. Industrial Paint Segment: In this business, the company caters to automotive, powder, protective coatings, road markings segment, floor coatings and General Industrial Paints. Most of the industrial paints business is operated by two companies viz. Asian PPG Ltd. and Asian Paints Industrial Coating Ltd. The company ranks first in the automotive paints business in domestic market. The company ranks second in protective segment and first in the road-marking segment. Recently it has entered in floor coating segment.

3 Chemicals Segment: Chemical business includes manufacturing of Phthalic Anhydride (PAN) and Penraerythritol (PENTA). APL has its PAN manufacturing plant at Gujarat (capacity 25,200 MT) and PENTA manufacturing facility at Tamil Nadu (capacity 3000 MT). The company consumes nearly 50% of its production as captive consumption and sells the remaining in the open market. This business contributes around 3% to company s consolidated revenues. Results Update: Top-line grows by 12.5% yoy: Asian paints has posted top line of Rs mn against Rs mn for the same quarter previous year, a growth of 12.50% on y-o-y basis where as PAT for the quarter was Rs mn against Rs mn for the same quarter last year, and a growth of 10.07% on y-o-y basis. The company has reported an EPS of Rs for the quarter ended June 30, 2012 as compared to Rs for the quarter ended June 30, Gross margins up 153bp yoy, EBIDTA ends flat EBIDTA rose 12.47% to Rs Mn while margin remained flat at 17.53% as a 151 bps decline in raw material expenses was completely offset by 48bps and 103bps increase in other expenses and employee expenses.

4 Prices increases impact volume growth: Asian paints ltd has witnessed a weak volume growth for Q1FY13 of 2% on parent basis. Asian Paints had undertaken substantial price increases (12%) in FY12 on the back of rising raw material prices (titanium dioxide and crude derivatives) and increase in excise duty. Further, in Q1FY13 with the RM index for the company being higher at over FY12 base of 100, the company undertook additional price increase of 3.2% effective May 1, We believe these extensive price increases along with a slowing industrial paint demand, higher volume growth base of 13% in FY12 and destocking led to the more than expected slowdown in sales. International operations grew by 10%: APNT witnessed pressure in its international business in Nepal due to political instability, while Bangladesh and Srilanka performed well. Sales growth in Caribbean, South Asia and Jamaica remained under pressure. Middle East and Trinidad reported modest growth. On the margins front, international business continued with weak performance due to inability in taking price hikes to compensate the raw material inflation. The company has given guidance of Rs 750 crore Capex for FY13E, which includes Rs 500 crore to be spent on the Khandala plant in Maharashtra. Festive season demand to drive sales in H2FY13 Although sales growth Q1FY13 is below expectation, we expect volumes improving in coming quarters mainly post monsoon and prior to Diwali festival. Titanium di-oxide prices are expected to come off, given lower demand from China and Europe. Thus, sales would gain traction from Q3FY13 onwards. However, we believe volume growth would temper to 9% in FY13E (13% in FY12) and the sales CAGR would be 15.4% from FY12-14E. Industrial Segment: The Industrial segment continued in subdued performance and registered weak growth. Both the automotive and protective segment performance was affected due to subdued demand environment in Auto and non Auto industry and drying up investment cycle in these sectors. We expect the performance of Industrial segment to remain weak in coming few quarters and too revive with revival in GDP growth. However, these segments contribute less to the topline and hence the impact will not be very high. If we take a look at the business, the consolidated business of the company can be bifurcated into three major segments viz. decorative paints (81 per cent of revenues), international segment (13 per cent) and industrial paints (6 per cent). So with the industrial segment contributing just 6 per cent, the impact will be lower.

5 Financial Highlights: Q-O-Q Performance (In Rs Mn) Particulars Q1 FY13 Q1 FY12 YoY (%) Q4 FY12 QoQ (%) Net Sales % % COGS % % Gross Profit % % Employee Cost % % % of Sales 6.22% 5.74% 48bps 5.32% 90bps Other Expenditure % % % of Sales 18.01% 16.98% 103bps 19.90% (189bps) Total Expenditure % % EBIDTA % % Depreciation % % EBIT (ex other income) % % Other Income % % EBIT % % Interest % % EBT % % TAX EXPENSES % % PAT % % MINORITY INTEREST % % Net Profit % % EPS % % Margins (%) Gross Profit 41.76% 40.25% 151 bps 40.25% 151 bps EBIDTA 17.53% 17.53% % 250bps EBIT 16.21% 16.24% (3bps) 13.80% 241bps EBT 16.73% 17.07% (34bps) 14.71% 202bps PAT 11.32% 11.64% (32bps) 10.19% 113bps

6 Y-o-Y Performance (In Mn.) Particulars FY12 FY11 % Change Total Income % Total Expenses % Operating Profit (Excl OI) % Other Income % Operating Profit % Interest % PBDT % Depreciation % PBT % Tax % PAT % Balance Sheet (Rs. Mn) Year End March FY11 FY12 Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Total Debt Deferred Tax Liabilities Net Block Capital Work-in-progress Investments Current Assets Current Liabilities Net Current Assets Cash Flow Statement (Rs. Mn) Year End March FY 11 FY 12 OP/(loss) before Tax Interest/ Div. Received Interest Paid (232) (410) Direct Taxes Paid (3,502) (4,274) (Incr)/Decr in WC (784) (1,075) CF from Operations CF form Invest. 345 (6,204) CF FROM FINANCING Activity (4,584) (4,219) Net Change 5204 (19) Add: Opening Balance Closing Balance

7 NET SALES (CONSOLIDATED) % 29.48% 29.60% 30.00% 24.30% 23.32% 25.34% 25.00% 21.95% 20.00% 15.00% 12.50% 10.00% 5.04% 5.00% 4.47% 0.00% Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Net Sales (Rs. Mn) Growth Y-o-Y (%) EBIDTA (CONSOLIDATED) % 18.97% 14.99% 14.35% 15.07% 16.43% 17.59% 15.52% 17.59% Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY % 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% EBIDTA EBIDTA Margins(%)

8 Investment rationale Robust financial performance: Asian paints consolidated net sales has grown at a decent CAGR of 16.92% in the last five years. Continuous focus on expanding geographical coverage through a large dealer network and on newer and more innovative products for its customers boosted its top line. 120, % 100, , % 23.98% 22.27% 24.73% 25.00% 20.00% 60, % 15.00% 40, % 20, % Consolidated Net Sales (Rs.Mn) Growth Y-o-Y (%) 0.00% 1 st largest player with a strong distribution network: An Asian paint is an established player in the Indian paint industry. Its owns strong and established paint brands. By virtue of its revenue, it is the 1 st largest player. It has very large distribution network in India. It boasts of 90 depots across the country. It has over 27,000 retailers. Sales breakup of top 5 paint companies 16.56% 3.10% 12.66% Akzo Nobel India Ltd. Asian Paints Ltd % 50.72% Berger Paints India Ltd. Kansai Nerolac Paints Ltd. Shalimar Paints Ltd.

9 Geographically diversified: Company Research The Asian Paints group operates in five regions across the world i.e. South Asia, South East Asia, South Pacific, Middle East & Caribbean through its five corporate brands viz. Asian Paints, Berger International, SCIB Paints, Apco Coatings and Taubmans. The company along with its subsidiaries has operations in 17 countries across the world with 24 paint manufacturing facilities, servicing consumers in 65 countries. It is the largest paint company in eleven countries. Most paint companies are hit by the fact that they do not make the raw materials themselves. For example, phthalic anhydride (PAN) is manufactured from orthoxylene and which goes into the production of paints along with titanium dioxide. Asian Paints is the only paint company that manufactures PAN. The other paint companies have to import their stock. Since PAN prices generally outpace international orthoxylene prices by almost 50% paint companies end up paying a fortune when prices rise. In such a situation Asian Paints benefits by selling PAN in the open market. Product innovation to match changing consumer needs and dynamic business environment: In Decorative paints, Asian Paints is present in all the four segments v.i.z Interior Wall Finishes, Exterior Wall Finishes, Enamels and Wood Finishes. It also introduced many innovative concepts in the Indian paint industry like Colour Worlds (Dealer Tinting Systems), Home Solutions (painting solutions Service), Kids World (painting solutions for kid's room), Colour Next (Prediction of Colour Trends through in-depth research) and Royale Play Special Effect Paints etc. Continuous Capacity expansion: The current installed capacity stood at 644,000 tons, which rose by 50,000MT (expansion at Rohtak). Capacity is expected to increase to over 1.2mn MT by FY15, which will include the new plant of 0.4mn tons at Khandala; the first phase of 0.3mn tons of this plant would be commissioned in 4QFY13. For the Khandala facility company will be incurring cap-ex of Rs.10bn, of which Rs5bn would be spend during the current fiscal. Forbes Global magazine USA ranked Asian Paints among the 200 Best Small Companies in the World for 2002 and 2003 and presented the 'Best under a Billion' award, to the company. Asian Paints is the only paint company in the world to receive this recognition. Forbes has also ranked Asian Paints among the Best under a Billion companies in Asia In 2005, 06 and 07.

10 Peer Comparison: Company Research Akzo Nobel India Ltd Kansai Nerolac Berger Paints Shalimar Paints Asian Paints Sales growth (5 yr CAGR) 4% 16% 19% 14% 21% Net Profit growth (5 yr CAGR) -15% 15% 15% 25% 29% Operating Margin (5 yr avg) 15% 13% 10% 7% 15% Net Margin (5 yr avg) 14% 8% 6% 2% 10% Return on Equity (5 yr avg) 18% 21% 24% 23% 47% Return on Assets (5 yr avg) 17% 19% 15% 8% 38% Return on Capital Employed (5 yr avg) 23% 27% 25% 22% 56% TTM PE Clearly, Asian Paints has delivered superior returns relative to its competitors. Over the past 5 years, the company has seen dynamic growth in both its revenue as well as earnings. On a consolidated basis, revenues grew at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% while net profits grew at a CAGR of 29%.At the same time it was able to maintain healthy margins and return ratios as well. FY12 operating and net margins were 14.9% and 9.4% respectively; while Return on Equity and Return on Capital employed were 41.4% and 54.7% respectively. Valuation- We expect FY13 EPS to be at Rs. 120 and estimate P/E to be 33 times thus target for the stock is Rs At the current market price of Rs , the stock trades at about 30 times its likely FY13 per share. We recommend you to HOLD the stock at the current prices or lower. Given the company s stable balance sheet, expanding product range, expanding product market and steady growth, we believe these valuations provide a good entry point for long term investors. Long term investors should ACCUMULATE the stock at every decline.

11 Disclaimer: The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable source believed to be true and is for general guidance only. While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of information contained, the company makes no guarantee and assumes no liability for any errors or omissions of the information. No one can use the information as the basis for any claim, demand or cause of action. FRR Shares And Securities Ltd., and affiliates, including the analyst who have issued this report, may, on the date of this report, and from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities of the companies mentioned herein or engage in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or compensation or act as advisor or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to companies mentioned herein or inconsistent with any recommendation and related information and opinions. FRR Shares And Securities Ltd. and affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.